Azerbaijan Airliner Down near Kazakhstan, 12/25, fatalities

From AP:

RIA Novosti quoted Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, as saying that preliminary information showed that the pilot had chosen to divert to Kazakhstan’s Aktau after a bird strike on the aircraft led to “an emergency situation on board”.​
 
As terrible as that sounds, I would far rather find out it was a tragic shoot-down than a potentially-grounding mechanical problem on the Embraer. RIP and prayers for the families of the souls lost and for justice for the perpetrators if that is what happened.
 
From the pilots perspective, he may have thought it was a bird strike. I don't know Russian, or whatever language they were using, but it could have been said something like "My bird got Struck" and was translated to our understanding of a bird strike.
 
I think those “birds” have been eating at a ball bearing factory.

There was video on X (linked in the Reddit link) from onboard showing holes inside before the crash
 
I wish to mention the skills and courage the crew displayed while flying a wounded aircraft and trying to reach an airport. There was massive damage to the horizontal stabilizer and elevators from the missile. They gave it their all, and that resulted in many passengers surviving the crash.

Rest easy, aviators.
 
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It appears the aircraft was in phugoid oscillations as it neared the ground, with throttle applications at the peaks. It also looks like a complete loss of control occurred just before it crashed.

EDIT: After watching the video a few times and thinking about it, I considered the damage had eventuated the loss of all hydraulic systems. If, as it appears, the pilots were using the throttles for directional control, as Al Haynes and Denny Fitch did, perhaps the final loss of control was caused by the turn exceeding the limits of controllability the engines could provide.

Once the plane banked past that point, the right turn could not be negated by application of full thrust on #2, and idle on #1. The pilots still performed heroically, as they were still able to effect a landing that preserved a large part of the aft fuselage and saved the lives of those within.

While fate decrees and we must obey, extraordinary effort to obtain the best possible outcome can alter the toll that the black hooded one demands. The crew performed admirably, and their actions allowed many to escape certain death. For that, they will live on as examples of benevolent sacrifice to the benefit of others, which is the highest honor a flier can obtain.

 
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The latest is that Russia is saying it “might” have been an accidental attack by their Pantsir SAM system. Grozny was apparently attacked by a drone 2 days ago, so it’s easy to understand why they would fire on a civilian airliner. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

That is consistent with the damage I’ve seen of the empennage, injuries to passengers from video inside the plane before the crash, and loss of control.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1871941361844232315
 
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bflynn said:
The latest is that Russia is saying it “might” have been an accidental attack by their Pantsir SAM system. Grozny was apparently attacked by a drone 2 days ago, so it’s easy to understand why they would fire on a civilian airliner.
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Given that we just got done shooting down our own F-18. I’m not sure we’re in the position to be casting stones.
 
Bacho said:
Given that we just got done shooting down our own F-18. I’m not sure we’re in the position to be casting stones.
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I wouldnt' apply "whataboutism" here. Anyone shoots down a civilian airliner and it is a serious problem that deserves serious analysis and corrective action.
 
Katamarino said:
Russia is leading you guys at least 3 - 1 on this.
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Human life is cheap in Russia.

Great past national tragedies in US include things like like lynchings , race riots etc - terrible things but all maybe accounting for a few thousand victims over span of 200 year while in Russia just one terrible event among many to choose from (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor) accounts for millions of victims.
 
Warmi said:
Human life is cheap in Russia.

Great past national tragedies in US include things like like lynchings , race riots etc - terrible things but all maybe accounting for a few thousand victims over span of 200 year while in Russia just one terrible event among many to choose from (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor) accounts for millions of victims.
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Gotta keep that ball centered at high AOA.
 
Could a bird strike cause an uncontained engine failure that could have caused the shrapnel? Not sure what part of the plane those pics came from.

News notes that the passengers in the cabin video were calm. Either resigned to some fate or just used to calamity.
 
455 Bravo Uniform said:
Could a bird strike cause an uncontained engine failure that could have caused the shrapnel? Not sure what part of the plane those pics came from.

News notes that the passengers in the cabin video were calm. Either resigned to some fate or just used to calamity.
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The engines on that aircraft are under the wings. The shrapnel damage is to the empennage. There's almost no way the damage to the empennage came from an engine coming apart.
 
455 Bravo Uniform said:
Could a bird strike cause an uncontained engine failure that could have caused the shrapnel? Not sure what part of the plane those pics came from.

News notes that the passengers in the cabin video were calm. Either resigned to some fate or just used to calamity.
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I think at this point it is all but confirmed that Russia shot the darn thing.
 
This Wall Street Journal article claims the crew flew the aircraft for 1:15 between the loss of altitude control and the crash. It also says GPS spoofing was the cause of the change of direction over the Caspian Sea. An attached Flightradar 24 profile shows the extreme altitude excursions, likely after the hydraulic systems failed. It appears depressurization and an emergency descent occurred while still under control.

An accompanying photo shows the shrapnel damage seen on the left side of the vertical stabilizer in previously posted photos completely penetrated the stab and exited the right side, indicating the energy of the shards.

 
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bflynn said:
The latest is that Russia is saying it “might” have been an accidental attack by their Pantsir SAM system. Grozny was apparently attacked by a drone 2 days ago, so it’s easy to understand why they would fire on a civilian airliner. :rolleyes::rolleyes:
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kyleb said:
I wouldnt' apply "whataboutism" here. Anyone shoots down a civilian airliner and it is a serious problem that deserves serious analysis and corrective action.
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It was just pure dumb luck that our own comically incompetent military didn’t do that exact same thing last week.

Good thing they haven’t passed an audit in a decade, and we just give them more and more money each year….
 
455 Bravo Uniform said:
Could a bird strike cause an uncontained engine failure that could have caused the shrapnel? Not sure what part of the plane those pics came from.

News notes that the passengers in the cabin video were calm. Either resigned to some fate or just used to calamity.
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The empennage, well away from the engines. It wasn’t engine failure it was loss of control because of damage to the rudder and elevators.
 
3393RP said:
This Wall Street Journal article claims the crew flew the aircraft for 1:15 between the loss of altitude control and the crash. It also says GPS spoofing was the cause of the change of direction over the Caspian Sea. An attached Flightradar 24 profile shows the extreme altitude excursions, likely after the hydraulic systems failed. It appears depressurization and an emergency descent occurred while still under control.

An accompanying photo shows the shrapnel damage seen on the left side of the vertical stabilizer in previously posted photos completely penetrated the stab and exited the right side, indicating the energy of the shards.

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Continuing to be able to fly the plane after loss of altitude control reminds me of Alaska 261. That one was pencil whipping maintenance though, not missiles.
 
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Groundpounder said:
We shot down an airliner in the 80's.
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Oh, I guess that makes it ok then.

But I have a question: If we shoot down one airliner by accident does that give Russia the ok to shoot one down by accident. Or is it a precedent sort of thing and that gives them the right to shoot down multiple airliners? And does the precedent only apply to accidental shootdowns or does it also apply to targeted shootdowns?
 
Russians shot down Malaysia Airlines flight 17 in 2014 as well…so we need one to catch up…Iran has also played the game. I am surprised it has not happened more often in the past.

In the 80’s the CIA gave the Mujahideen in Afghanistan boatloads of new Stinger missiles that revolutionized the use of MANPAD’s, no longer a revenge weapon but with a cooled duel seeker head could lock on to things as simple as glint off of the canopy of an aircraft. Soviet Aircraft were dropping like flies as 20 year old fighters who just crawled out from under a rock could operate them. But they also were a source of cash and more then one ended up with the Iranians and we learned this from an actual attack on one of the little birds of the 160th during an engagement of an oil platform. The only thing that saved the aircraft and crew was it was launched inside the minimum effective range of 400 meters. This event was an eye opener for us operating in the area. Those weapons are long expired but it’s not hard to point to other places we or the Russians might have left a few laying around that work just fine.
 
Bacho said:
Given that we just got done shooting down our own F-18. I’m not sure we’re in the position to be casting stones.
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Given that we didn’t launch an illegal invasion of another country I think we are allowed to “cast stones” on Russia shooting down a civilian airliner.
 
I have to admit, when I heard of the plane going down, the first thing I thought was, “Nothing gives me confidence like hearing the words “Azerbaijan Airlines”.”

But the more I hear about how that flight crew was able to fly that shot up aircraft and get it down and save lives, the more respect I have for those two.
 
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