Hank S
En-Route
Hahahaha. I didn’t think of that. I caught it. Yeah, many here won’t remember.
But but but but . . . . I thought John D was set up by the Feds . . . .
Hahahaha. I didn’t think of that. I caught it. Yeah, many here won’t remember.
Of course. Many smart people realize that all cars will not be electric under a foreseeable horizon, such as 100 years. Maybe just 90% or 95%. And that's just in CONUS. Worldwide - 15% electric at best. Although, of course, the world will catch up asymptotically to that 90..95%.
No chemistry changes from published information. Manufacturing changes, mostly around the electrolyte tolerances and internal shielding. This has had two effects: 1. lower manufacturing costs by reducing material, and second increasing batter energy density.
Tim
I'm considering an electric car for my next purchase. I have a 60 mile commute every day (round trip), so a good electric would be perfect for me. But I won't pay $100k or even $40k for one. I'll buy a cheaper one or a used one.
But I'm looking at the possibility of a work from home job, and it's really the only reason I would buy one, so it's a risk for me.
The only reason I want one is I really despise stopping for gas once a week, like I do now. In this small use case, it's actually a convenience. But if I get a different job, it will convert back to an inconvenience.
That seems to expect perfection on version 1, or even version 1+n. And unchanging goals. Just seems unreasonable in the real world.
No, not just add more cells. They changed the individual cells as well:
All the of those are 18650 cells. (18mm x 65mm).
- The original Roadster cells were 2200 mah, 3.7v and weighed 44g each.
- The original Model S cells were 3100 mah, 3.6V and weighed 44.5g each.
- The 2015 updated Model S cells are 3400 mah, 3.6V and weighs 46g each.
The Model 3 cells are 5175 mah, but it's a different form factor as well - 21700 (21mm x 70mm). If you theoretically scale it down proportionally to a 18650 they would be 4118 mah each.
Ford will come out with some snazzy E-Stang, or E-Focus, or whatever the devil the kids are driving these days. Anyway, my point is; it will be cool and sell for something people can afford.
BTW, the kids are taking Uber, or Lyft, or bumming a ride from someone, or riding a bike, or still riding in the back of Mom's minivan. They aren't driving anything these days.
Sometimes I don’t suck at math. What you are talking about is why I always cash tip my Uber drivers.The sad part about the kids using Uber or Lyft is it’s an insidious way to make people who drive for them poorer.
The numbers don’t work for the vast majority of Uber or Lyft drivers to make a profit after vehicle wear and tear and depreciation is accounted for.
But it temporarily ups their cash flow so they think it’s a reasonable job.
I’d happily sign up for one or the other and do little trips while going other places but the vehicles that I have which are paid for, don’t qualify, since they’re too old. And supposedly therefore “unsafe”.
And you can’t make the numbers work unless you already paid off the vehicle. Numerous financial gurus have not only analyzed it but a number have actually tried it.
One here semi-locally found that when working for Uber when he would calculate that a trip was unprofitable and ignore it, the app would scream bloody murder about it, and Uber management would send him “love notes” in e-mail later that same day, that he was the closest participating driver, and by turning down the ride, someone else from farther away had to come, and that would “hurt the company”.
He would reply and tell them exactly who he was (made his living doing financial coaching and such) and share his exact calculations, and why he didn’t take the trip, and the middle management drones would kick the reply upstairs to the Uber PR people and they’d tell him it was all okay, and ask him not to publish the day’s events and all that. He ignored them and published. Anyone else would simply have gotten enough “strikes” to not be allowed to drive for them anymore. He had an audience and the PR people were scared of him.
Rightly so, it appears. He exposed what a bad deal driving for them usually is. There’s a few drivers who manage to make a profit but they’re hammering the number of rides to events that trigger higher prices, and most have moved up to the higher tiers with black vehicles and the “invite only” stuff where Uber asks what are essentially fleet managers of limos to do their higher tier work.
The typical Uber driver is losing money quite rapidly. They just don’t notice it until they go to sell their car. It’s essentially a transfer of costs to the driver in such a subtle way they don’t notice because they don’t do the math.
Sometimes I don’t suck at math. What you are talking about is why I always cash tip my Uber drivers.
The sad part about the kids using Uber or Lyft is it’s an insidious way to make people who drive for them poorer.
Don't worry about it, or lose any sleep. Uber is working overtime and pouring loads of resources into making sure they don't have a job in the near future. The first thing on the checklist of Uber's future goals is to get rid of Uber drivers altogether.
It'll be great when eventually half our population is unemployed and poor due to rich people developing new technology to enriched themselves. Sci-Fi dystopian future, here we come!!
If you have an order for 100'000 of high-margin items that will take you a year to fill, would you instead switch your assembly line to manufacture low-margin items instead? (Considering the low-margin and high-margin items take essentially the same time and resources to make). That would be beyond stupid. Gross mismanagement even.
Sadly, they will likely hang on until they are “too big to fail” and we will bail them out.Well, in a year, Tesla will be in bankruptcy if nothing changes, so that might affect what they want to sell. Their current cars have a small group of people who have the ability to buy them, fewer than the number of people with the ability to buy an airplane. They need cash coming in. No matter how much high margin stuff they have to sell, if they do not have the cash to pay their obligations, then their creditors can legally seek to seize the assets of the company and shut them down.
Americans do not appreciate the seriousness of bankruptcy because we have laws protecting companies against the immediate consequences. In other countries, if you default on a payment then you can show up for work the next day and find your door padlocked. I have seen it happen.
That won't happen here because there is too much faith in the company. They will raise capital in some way (loans, more stock?) and continue what they are doing. But the magic gravy train does not continue forever and ultimately they will have to figure out how to operate without a loss. Their doom is not imminent, but without change, it is inevitable.
They just have to hold out for another Obama like presidency or super majority of democrats.If they do not change they will never get to be big. This is not like Amazon where they just need to hold on until they get enough mass to make it work. Tesla is probably already near max market penetration for those who can afford their cars. People will continue to buy their first Tesla as they need a new car, but there are few "new" customers.
If you live in a place where parking is difficult, Uber and Lyft make sense. You don’t need to pay for the car to begin with, or the upkeep and insurance. I wanted my license and a car ASAP, but I lived in an area with no public transportation, and it was decades before Uber and Lyft.Very true. When I was living in Silicon Valley (up until about six months ago), I was amazed at the parents I worked with who said their teenage kids cared nothing about getting a driver's license or a car. Kids Uber'd or Lyft'd everywhere. Getting their license and a car meant nothing to them.
The startups I worked at would frequently get interns in for the summer. Most were in their early 20's, and I'd say of the ones I worked with, about half of them had no license or car, and no plans to get one.
I just find this amazing, as when I was turning 16, it was every teenagers dream of getting their license and a car. How things change...
I strongly suggest you get your financial news elsewhere. As much as people complain about fake news, whether you're on the CNN side or the FOX side, it does not even begin to compare with SeekingAlpha. It not just negative side, there's also equally ridiculous claims on the positive side.
They just have to hold out for another Obama like presidency or super majority of democrats.
Were you alive during the Obama administration?Curious, how does any administration come into play?
Tim
Were you alive during the Obama administration?
Then you are well aware of things like this, and I don't need to point them out. https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...f5305eddf60_story.html?utm_term=.a940a2d0e944Yes, and I am news junkie; that generally assumes that more factors come into play than the common person believes. I am also very much aware of teh limitations of both Congress and President.
For example, a lot of people in coal country attribute a recent uptick in 2016 to the Trump administration. Actually the primary two causes were external to the USA. First in early 2016 changes that China mandated for coal production caused a domestic drop in coal production in China; these changes were announced in early 2015. Second, the largest exporter of coal was an Australian firm which had a series of natural disasters in multiple coal mines shutting down production for almost a year. Based on the PR, only now are they getting close to the pre-2016 production levels.
Tim
That seems to expect perfection on version 1, or even version 1+n. And unchanging goals. Just seems unreasonable in the real world.
Then you are well aware of things like this, and I don't need to point them out. https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...f5305eddf60_story.html?utm_term=.a940a2d0e944
The sad part about the kids using Uber or Lyft is it’s an insidious way to make people who drive for them poorer.
The numbers don’t work for the vast majority of Uber or Lyft drivers to make a profit after vehicle wear and tear and depreciation is accounted for.
But it temporarily ups their cash flow so they think it’s a reasonable job.
I’d happily sign up for one or the other and do little trips while going other places but the vehicles that I have which are paid for, don’t qualify, since they’re too old. And supposedly therefore “unsafe”.
And you can’t make the numbers work unless you already paid off the vehicle. Numerous financial gurus have not only analyzed it but a number have actually tried it.
One here semi-locally found that when working for Uber when he would calculate that a trip was unprofitable and ignore it, the app would scream bloody murder about it, and Uber management would send him “love notes” in e-mail later that same day, that he was the closest participating driver, and by turning down the ride, someone else from farther away had to come, and that would “hurt the company”.
He would reply and tell them exactly who he was (made his living doing financial coaching and such) and share his exact calculations, and why he didn’t take the trip, and the middle management drones would kick the reply upstairs to the Uber PR people and they’d tell him it was all okay, and ask him not to publish the day’s events and all that. He ignored them and published. Anyone else would simply have gotten enough “strikes” to not be allowed to drive for them anymore. He had an audience and the PR people were scared of him.
Rightly so, it appears. He exposed what a bad deal driving for them usually is. There’s a few drivers who manage to make a profit but they’re hammering the number of rides to events that trigger higher prices, and most have moved up to the higher tiers with black vehicles and the “invite only” stuff where Uber asks what are essentially fleet managers of limos to do their higher tier work.
The typical Uber driver is losing money quite rapidly. They just don’t notice it until they go to sell their car. It’s essentially a transfer of costs to the driver in such a subtle way they don’t notice because they don’t do the math.
@denverpilot One thing I just noticed - the person being interviewed on your OP is Anton Wahlman who writes for SeekingAlpha.
Not sure how much you know about SeekingAlpha, but it's basically an unedited pile of garbage written by people who take a long or short position in a stock, and then try to manipulate the stock price up or down. There is absolutely no oversight - anybody can write anything, and on top of it get paid per click.
Seeking Alpha is where you go when the National Enquirer is starting to get to real for you. Or if you miss the old penny stock scams.
Wahlman has a published short position in TSLA. I didn't listen too much to the video but it was the same drivel of how Tesla has never made a gross profit on Model S / Model X (their profit margins have been solidly between 20% and 25% over the last 4 years), blah, blah. You can maybe use it for entertainment - it's funny seeing Wahlman's predictions of how the lower gas prices was going to kill Tesla in 2014. Or how the Bolt killed Tesla in 2015.
The funniest guy on SeekingAlpha is John Peterson who has a short position in TSLA and long position in AXPW (AXPW produces that universally hated start/stop technology for modern cars), and started blogging in 2012 for everybody to sell all of their TSLA stock and buy AXPW. So John start posting negative garbage around Tesla over and over again. He predicted TSLA would have no more orders left after 2013. That there can't ever be enough battery production capacity in the world for even the Model S needs (also 2013). That the first battery fire would take out the company. That the Gigafactory was a hoax and will never get built. The Tesla lied to the SEC about subsidies (2014) and how Elon was going to get arrested.
Meanwhile TSLA is up 10 fold since he started, and Axion went from $100'000 per share, to $0.006 per share today, after a reverse split of 1:700000. But he's still at it today, trying to get people to dump TSLA and buy AXPW. I believe he lost his house on that bet. Kind'a sad really.
I strongly suggest you get your financial news elsewhere. As much as people complain about fake news, whether you're on the CNN side or the FOX side, it does not even begin to compare with SeekingAlpha. It not just negative side, there's also equally ridiculous claims on the positive side.
My family hasn't farmed since the 30s, I don't think. My wife's family has some farmers left. Her sister and brother-in-law farm, and they do get days off, depending on the time of year. But in order to make a living at it, they have to farm a few thousand acres using a couple million bucks worth of equipment, in addition to having several large hog confinements. I asked if they'd be able to make a living on, say, a section of land... no way, they said. Not unless they wanted to live like farmers did in the 30s.Only two generations back in my family we already saw everyone go from seven days to five. The farmers in my family’s past (and current farmers) don’t get a day off unless they hire someone else to handle the farm chores.
@denverpilot
Seeking Alpha is where you go when the National Enquirer is starting to get to real for you. Or if you miss the old penny stock scams.
My family hasn't farmed since the 30s, I don't think. My wife's family has some farmers left. Her sister and brother-in-law farm, and they do get days off, depending on the time of year. But in order to make a living at it, they have to farm a few thousand acres using a couple million bucks worth of equipment, in addition to having several large hog confinements. I asked if they'd be able to make a living on, say, a section of land... no way, they said. Not unless they wanted to live like farmers did in the 30s.
..their profit margins have been solidly between 20% and 25% over the last 4 years
@denverpilot
I did not post that Tesla is making a profit. However, I have heard the claim. Where Tesla has historically been burning cash is on build out, both of factories and SuperCharger stations.
I do NOT know if that is still the case.
Tim
Electric just isn’t there yet.
My buddy and I went to Lincoln for a Huskers game. Weather was bad and had to drive and this was an impromptu trip.
We were going to take his Tesla X, but it won’t get there and back on a single charge. And Lincoln doesn’t have the charging infrastructure for his Tesla. So we crammed four adults in my Chevy Volt and got just shy of 60mpg round trip.
It’s still not ideal, I would have loved to have traveled more on electricity, but when I ran out of juice the gas engine kicked in.
Best of both worlds.
And for my 37 miles commute to the office it’s 100 percent electric. Plug in at work and it’s 100 percent electric back to the house.
Best of both worlds.
TJ
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
An interesting point I saw about superchargers. Tesla snagged all the best available real estate near highways. That’s worth something. The other companies can’t really make their chargers as convenient for interstate highway road trips now.
Put a windmill on top to power it.I need a Tesla. I spend about $300-$400 a month on gas.
I do NOT know if that is still the case.
I'm calling BS. First, good real estate along interstates is expensive. Second, superchargers don't take *that much* of it. Third, there is enough of it that you'd have to be Warren Buffet to corner the market.