Tesla Trolling

[Bill]

In summary:

@Salty stated that 80% of the population would not buy a EV because it cannot do the mission.

@Katamarino stated that current EV tech can perform for 90+% of the current driving public.

Even IF EV tech can perform 90+% of the current driving public daily driving, I'd venture to say 80% of the population couldn't even afford the cheapest 3 on sale now. A low income person can buy a used car for $2000 and "recharge" it at over 100,000 locations nationwide. How the hell is this person to become electrified?

 

[Katamarino]

No. You misstated my position. My position is that if he were right, people would be buying the cars. They aren’t because they know better than him what makes sense for them.​

The thing is, they are buying the cars. EVs as a total percentage of the market are climbing steadily. We all know they aren't instantly going to take over, because people don't change their car as often as they change their underwear. Hell, my car is 18 years old and I have no intention of changing it. An EV doesn't work for how I drive, but for most people it does. The price is coming down, the cars are getting better, and their market share is constantly rising.

 

[paflyer]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261516309067

They apply Seattle "data" against entire European countries' "data" to infer the entire USA's travel experience.


"Results from the American Driver Survey were based on telephone interviews with a nationwide sample of 3,319 drivers who reported detailed information about all their driving trips taken the day before the interview."
https://newsroom.aaa.com/2015/04/new-study-reveals-much-motorists-drive/

Nah, I don't see any holes in that "data collection methodology"...

 

[tspear]

No. You misstated my position. My position is that if he were right, people would be buying the cars. They aren’t because they know better than him what makes sense for them.​

Actually no. If people "knew better" we would have had Beta Max not VHS.

The market is fairly good a sorting value when comparing almost identical items. But when one fundamentally changes the market in some manor, the buying public is not very astute. e.g. Why do we have Dos instead of Unix?

There are many examples of this through out history of both. EV cars fundamentally require a change in consumer thinking therefore they are not a consideration for most. Plug in hybrids will be the stepping stone that most people will need to make the jump to EV.

Tim

 

[Katamarino]

Even IF EV tech can perform 90+% of the current driving public daily driving, I'd venture to say 80% of the population couldn't even afford the cheapest 3 on sale now. A low income person can buy a used car for $2000 and "recharge" it at over 100,000 locations nationwide. How the hell is this person to become electrified?

Today, they aren't! I don't think anybody is arguing that they should, I know I'm not. 5, 10 etc years from now though, the market will be entirely different; used options, better tech, more economies of scale for the manufacturers.

 

[Salty]

Even IF EV tech can perform 90+% of the current driving public daily driving, I'd venture to say 80% of the population couldn't even afford the cheapest 3 on sale now. A low income person can buy a used car for $2000 and "recharge" it at over 100,000 locations nationwide. How the hell is this person to become electrified?

But if they can't afford it, how can you say it meets the mission? you can't imo

 

[Katamarino]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0191261516309067

They apply Seattle "data" against entire European countries' "data" to infer the entire USA's travel experience.


"Results from the American Driver Survey were based on telephone interviews with a nationwide sample of 3,319 drivers who reported detailed information about all their driving trips taken the day before the interview."
https://newsroom.aaa.com/2015/04/new-study-reveals-much-motorists-drive/

Nah, I don't see any holes in that "data collection methodology"...

Do present any data you have that opposes what Tim and I have found. There's not a whole lot of data easily available it seems, but what we've got so far all seems to agree.

 

[tspear]

Even IF EV tech can perform 90+% of the current driving public daily driving, I'd venture to say 80% of the population couldn't even afford the cheapest 3 on sale now. A low income person can buy a used car for $2000 and "recharge" it at over 100,000 locations nationwide. How the hell is this person to become electrified?

It will take fifteen to twenty years. Average car life is roughly twelve years; it is going to take another five to ten from what I have read before Chevy is predicting a model for sale in the upper twenties. Add in average car life, and it will be twenty years before this market you reference is met.

Tim

 

[Bill]

But if they can't afford it, how can you say it meets the mission? you can't imo

Salty, that was exactly my point. Kat says it meets 90% of the public's needs, but it really meets 90% of the top 20% income family needs.

I've said it on other forums, but possibly not here, but I stand by it: Tesla has been and will remain a boutique manufacturer for the well to do, or those who wish to appear well to do.

 

[Katamarino]

Some 2016 data; there are about 270 million registered (active?) cars in the US. Annual car sales in the US are about 6.3 million. Even if everybody who buys a car buys an EV, it'd take 43 years for the market to be all electric.

So no, nobody is saying that there's going to be an instant shift to EV. We're saying it's a trend that'll accelerate.

 

[tspear]

But if they can't afford it, how can you say it meets the mission? you can't imo

you can always pick a market which does not meet the requirement. Ok, I have a monthly budget of car payment, gas, and repairs for $550 bucks. I drive 60 miles one way to work. What "new" cars are my options; and what can lower my monthly spend?

(FYI, this was my friends position, he is under $400 now with the Bolt instead of a Civic)

Tim

 

[Katamarino]

Kat says it meets 90% of the public's needs, but it really meets 90% of the top 20% income family needs.

Technical needs. Your point about the financial side is a good one. However, a lot of the people who'd consider buying a new car can also afford a new EV, I think that's a fairer comparison. Not used petrol/diesel vs new EV.

The market for used EVs is tiny, although as I said my friend bought a second hand Tesla S and it's excellent. It'll grow though. There are still uncertainties about battery longevity that need to be addressed before people will be confident so it'll be slow to start with.

 

[tspear]

Salty, that was exactly my point. Kat says it meets 90% of the public's needs, but it really meets 90% of the top 20% income family needs.

I've said it on other forums, but possibly not here, but I stand by it: Tesla has been and will remain a boutique manufacturer for the well to do, or those who wish to appear well to do.

Actually I am fairly sure the argument meeting needs was dealing with driving distance. Not affordability.
Otherwise, I agree with your statement. Tesla is a niche player.
Chevy, Toyota, Ford... all the legacy companies will east Tesla's lunch.

Tim

 

[Bill]

However, a lot of the people who'd consider buying a new car can also afford a new EV, I think that's a fairer comparison.

Depends. For $35-40k someone can buy a pretty nice mid-sized sedan or SUV, or a much smaller EV. Ford Focus EV starts at $30k, the e-Golf starts at $30k, the Bolt starts at $37.4k, etc. These are all small cars. To get something bigger and nicer one has to cough up Tesla money. So it doesn't compare. Most people who need a mid-sized vehicle will not be satisfied with a small car.

 

[paflyer]

I think that's the number of individual journeys in the graphed sample, not the number of households surveyed.

Ah, I believe you are correct.

 

[Katamarino]

Depends. For $35-40k someone can buy a pretty nice mid-sized sedan or SUV, or a much smaller EV. Ford Focus EV starts at $30k, the e-Golf starts at $30k, the Bolt starts at $37.4k, etc. These are all small cars. To get something bigger and nicer one has to cough up Tesla money. So it doesn't compare. Most people who need a mid-sized vehicle will not be satisfied with a small car.

That's fair, I'll concede that point. Dollar for dollar you do currently get more for a petrol car new. Running costs for an EV will tend to be lower, though, and a quick glance suggests that hybrids are much closer in value terms. The trend is certainly towards EVs getting more and more affordable; as I said previously, my friend did the sums over a 2 year period and the Tesla worked out cheaper. The fuel costs in Europe do make it pay for itself quicker of course.

 

[Bill]

and a quick glance suggests that hybrids are much closer in value terms.

I think the sweet spot right now is the Chevy Volt, as long as the small size suits your mission. Decent all electric range with gasoline backup for longer trips.

 

[RJM62]

Check your reading comprehension. I said that people whose typical travel wasn't possible with an electric vehicle were a niche market. You don't help your argument by pretending others said things that they didn't.

Here's a graph showing average journey length for trips taken by US drivers in 2009. I feel pretty safe in saying that a 200 mile range electric vehicle is going to work just fine for the vast, vast majority of the population.

Feel free to show me some data that says 80% of the population are making regular, epic cross country drives though.

It doesn't need to be an "epic, cross-country drive" for electric to be impractical; and "average" trip distance is meaningless.

My "average" trip is probably less than five miles because of the trips to the post office at least once a day, to the transfer station to dump the trash once or twice a week, to the Dollar General to pick up odds and ends, to the hardware store to pick up other odds and ends, and other local errands. The Incorporated Village of Sparrow Fart has a total area of less than one square mile, so of course my average trip is going to be short.

That doesn't change the fact that three or four times a month I make trips in the 150- to 275-mile neighborhood each way. A car with a 200-mile range just wouldn't cut it. On almost any trip outside of the Greater Sparrow Fart Metropolitan Area, I'd be spending almost as much time waiting for the car's battery to charge as I would spend driving it.

If they could get 300 miles with a full-charge time of 15 minutes or less out of an EV, then I'd be interested. If they could get 500 miles range with a 4-hour charge, I'd be interested. 500 miles is about the most I would want to put on in a day, anyway. But 200 miles with a 2-hour full charge, no thanks. I have better things to do that sit around drinking lattes with strangers waiting for my car to charge.

A plug-in hybrid, on the other hand, would work for me. I also think it's the best all-around solution for most people: especially in cities, where curbing the emissions would be of the most benefit anyway; but even for rural people, most of whom make most of their trips within a 50-mile radius. So most people could do most of their trips on electricity using a plug-in hybrid with as little as a 125-mile battery range. They could also choose to plug in at charging stations on longer trips if they were planning to take a break anyway. But they wouldn't be forced to do so.

Rich

 

[Katamarino]

I suspect it'll be a long time until there's an electric replacement for my lifted 2000 Wrangler on 35s though

 

[paflyer]

That's fair, I'll concede that point. Dollar for dollar you do currently get more for a petrol car new. Running costs for an EV will tend to be lower, though, and a quick glance suggests that hybrids are much closer in value terms. The trend is certainly towards EVs getting more and more affordable; as I said previously, my friend did the sums over a 2 year period and the Tesla worked out cheaper. The fuel costs in Europe do make it pay for itself quicker of course.

Comparing the US to Europe, or probably anyplace else, in practically any aspect, is a waste of time.

 

[Katamarino]

Comparing the US to Europe, or probably anyplace else, in practically any aspect, is a waste of time.

California seems to be trying to get as much like Europe as possible when it comes to policy, though

 

[Bill]

I suspect it'll be a long time until there's an electric replacement for my lifted 2000 Wrangler on 35s though

The new JL looks sharp to me. Give me a base Sport with stick shift, and I'll go explore forest roads up in the mountains.

 

[tspear]

A plug-in hybrid, on the other hand, would work for me. I also think it's the best all-around solution for most people: especially in cities, where curbing the emissions would be of the most benefit anyway; but even for rural people, most of whom make most of their trips within a 50-mile radius. So most people could do most of their trips on electricity using a plug-in hybrid with as little as a 125-mile battery range. They could also choose to plug in at charging stations on longer trips if they were planning to take a break anyway. But they wouldn't be forced to do so.

Rich

Per the following: 70% of the US population are an in area with a population over 50,000. With 80.7% in areas where there is at least 2,500 people.
Basically your Sparrow Fart is now the exception, not the rule.
https://www.citylab.com/equity/2012/03/us-urban-population-what-does-urban-really-mean/1589/

Tim

 

[Katamarino]

Basically your Sparrow Fart is now the exception, not the rule.

Sadly

 

[tspear]

Depends. For $35-40k someone can buy a pretty nice mid-sized sedan or SUV, or a much smaller EV. Ford Focus EV starts at $30k, the e-Golf starts at $30k, the Bolt starts at $37.4k, etc. These are all small cars. To get something bigger and nicer one has to cough up Tesla money. So it doesn't compare. Most people who need a mid-sized vehicle will not be satisfied with a small car.

Almost no one pays cash. Cash flow, what is the monthly spend for the car, gas, and maintenance.

Tim

 

[bnt83]

What are the logistics? How will new/depleted batteries be stored, transported, and paid for?

Batteries, connectors, mounting, etc., would have to be standardized. Someone has to pay for the tools, equipment, storage. Not a huge problem, but a consideration.

I can see it now, a long list of new EPA superfund sites due to EV waste.

 

[jsstevens]

Check your reading comprehension. I said that people whose typical travel wasn't possible with an electric vehicle were a niche market. You don't help your argument by pretending others said things that they didn't.

Here's a graph showing average journey length for trips taken by US drivers in 2009. I feel pretty safe in saying that a 200 mile range electric vehicle is going to work just fine for the vast, vast majority of the population.

Feel free to show me some data that says 80% of the population are making regular, epic cross country drives though.

What this chart says (assuming the data is correct) is that a 200 mile range EV would satisfy 90+% of people's trips. Which still leaves <10% of people's trips unsupported. That is a much different statement from satisfying 90+% of people's needs.

Elsewhere you've mentioned renting a car for longer trips. (That's how FIAT worked it in California, if you leased one of their EVs, they paid for 2 weeks of car rental a year to cover the long trips.) But what does that do if I make longer trips 2-3 times a month? And, over time, if EV's take over, where do the gas powered rental cars come from for the longer trips? (Not to mention the lost infrastructure?)

 

[Katamarino]

What this chart says (assuming the data is correct) is that a 200 mile range EV would satisfy 90+% of people's trips. Which still leaves <10% of people's trips unsupported. That is a much different statement from satisfying 90+% of people's needs.

Elsewhere you've mentioned renting a car for longer trips. (That's how FIAT worked it in California, if you leased one of their EVs, they paid for 2 weeks of car rental a year to cover the long trips.) But what does that do if I make longer trips 2-3 times a month? And, over time, if EV's take over, where do the gas powered rental cars come from for the longer trips? (Not to mention the lost infrastructure?)

Based on the data we can find it's more like 99%+.

If you take 2-3 longer trips per month, you're right in the niche that I said from the start current EVs won't work for. Probably, in future, EVs will develop to a point that they will work; but I wouldn't see petrol/diesel vehicles going away any time in at least the next 3-4 decades. There's also plug in hybrids which would work nicely for longer trips.

I don't want gas cars to vanish. My Jeep is gas and I have no plans to get rid of it at all. EVs will almost certainly end up in the majority eventually though.

 

[tspear]

Elsewhere you've mentioned renting a car for longer trips. (That's how FIAT worked it in California, if you leased one of their EVs, they paid for 2 weeks of car rental a year to cover the long trips.) But what does that do if I make longer trips 2-3 times a month? And, over time, if EV's take over, where do the gas powered rental cars come from for the longer trips? (Not to mention the lost infrastructure?)

They come from a niche production, someone like Subaru... They only have what 2-3% of the market?
As for gas stations, they become highly automated and unattended; with 90% of them closing their doors. Then due to the toxic nature, and the corn lobby everything in the USA will switch to Biodiesel of Ethanol.

Tim (said tongue in cheek)

 

[jsstevens]

Based on the data we can find it's more like 99%+.

If you take 2-3 longer trips per month, you're right in the niche that I said from the start current EVs won't work for. Probably, in future, EVs will develop to a point that they will work; but I wouldn't see petrol/diesel vehicles going away any time in at least the next 3-4 decades. There's also plug in hybrids which would work nicely for longer trips.

I don't want gas cars to vanish. My Jeep is gas and I have no plans to get rid of it at all. EVs will almost certainly end up in the majority eventually though.

What data? The chart is, of course, quite hard to read at that end of the scale. But it's still not accounting for the difference in trips vs people. If 99% of a person's trips are short, the person still has a need for longer trips. You cannot make the assertion (based on this chart's data) that it accounts for 99% of people's needs; only 99% or trips.

 

[James331]

It will take fifteen to twenty years. Average car life is roughly twelve years; it is going to take another five to ten from what I have read before Chevy is predicting a model for sale in the upper twenties. Add in average car life, and it will be twenty years before this market you reference is met.

Tim

12 years? Ive never sold a car because I "drove it into the ground", with a decent car and proper MX the car should outlast the driver.

 

[tspear]

12 years? Ive never sold a car because I "drove it into the ground", with a decent car and proper MX the car should outlast the driver.

What is the trite phrase?
You are the exception that proves the rule?

I have sold multiple cars over the years. Changed requirements, or driven to the point that reliability interfered with my work and/or lifestyle.
Now, with my current driving habits, that will take a lot longer.

Tim

 

[deonb]

Now scale that up to 250,000,000 personal vehicles that need to "refuel".

What kind of electrical generation/distribution infrastructure needs to be in place to support that? The current grid? I don't think so...

The average 15k miles per year American would need about as much power per day to charge an EV as they would running an air conditioner for 2 hours per day.

And EVs can charge overnight when ACs and ovens are off, and businesses are closed.

Not saying some pockets won’t need improvement, but the majority of the grid can handle it just fine.

 

[James331]

What is the trite phrase?
You are the exception that proves the rule?

I have sold multiple cars over the years. Changed requirements, or driven to the point that reliability interfered with my work and/or lifestyle.
Now, with my current driving habits, that will take a lot longer.

Tim

I'm no exception and I am a rather.. well... spirited driver. Every car I've ever seen has a MX schedule, follow it and don't ignore problems or crash into stuff, do that and even a cheap car will outlast its owner.

 

[SkyDog58]

I'd guess that existing electric vehicles probably meet the needs of 95% of the population, >99% of the time.

I’d say that your guess percentages are on the high side but I would also guess that the percentage is probably quite a bit higher than many on here would be willing to admit. My daily commute is 15 miles each way and my wife’s is about 30 each way. That is way within an electric car’s abilities. Our evening activities and those of probably half our weekends are also well within as they are usually not more than 1 to 1.5 hours. However our other weekends and our vacation weeks can be much longer drives and do not always line up with the charger network. It is those drives that would make me reluctant to buy electric however as noted there are solutions. We currently own two vehicles and always will so one car could be electric and one not. We could also rent a car for those longer drives. That can be an attractive option in that if the car breaks down or is in an accident, you just call the rental company and get another and don’t have to deal with repair issues several hundred miles from home. So right now, my biggest issue with the Tesla line is that they are just too damn expensive but then again I’m a cheap bastard who has never paid more than $25K for a car.

 

[CC268]

Not really relevant to the discussion, but I know a few kids I went to high school with who have new Tesla Model S's...I have NO idea how they afford them (actually I do know - they can't afford them lol). One of them works at Quicken Loans (probably sub 50k salary) and the other is a real estate agent...

I think like many have said here. Tesla is a status symbol at this point.

 

[tspear]

I'm no exception and I am a rather.. well... spirited driver. Every car I've ever seen has a MX schedule, follow it and don't ignore problems or crash into stuff, do that and even a cheap car will outlast its owner.

I follow the MX schedule. But at some point other crap starts to fail. Such water pump, oil pump, CV boots...
For me, with my old job I did not have the time/schedule to deal with that kind of crap. Now, not only do I drive less, I have the schedule to be able to deal with it.
I know many others who when the car MX gets to certain hassle point it is time for the car to go.

Tim

 

[deonb]

Swapping a pack out today is a major PITA. But I remember when swapping a disk drive was a major PITA too, until they made hot-swappable disks. There is no reason engineers can't develop an easily replaceable battery pack, even if it does take a tow motor to lift it in and out.

Keep in mind all Teslas have a hot-swappable packs and they tried this already. They placed a swapper right next to a SuperCharger for a year or two, halfway between LA and San Francisco and charged a small fee for it.

Almost nobody used it. People discovered that taking a 45 minute charge & lunch break in the middle of a 6 hour drive that you do a couple of times a year is just no big deal. Certainly wasn’t worth paying money to get out of it - even by people who could easily afford it.

Swapping becomes a bit more viable if this is for day to day driving - but I still maintain strongly that if you can’t charge at home, don’t buy an EV.

 

[James331]

I follow the MX schedule. But at some point other crap starts to fail. Such water pump, oil pump, CV boots...
For me, with my old job I did not have the time/schedule to deal with that kind of crap. Now, not only do I drive less, I have the schedule to be able to deal with it.
I know many others who when the car MX gets to certain hassle point it is time for the car to go.

Tim

Water pumps are a 60k mi item on most cars, CV boots are on condition, haven't seen too many oil pump failures, but most of that stuff is a easy fix, or a drop it off before work pick it up next day or after work item.

The older stuff seemed to need less, like the older 2.2 Subaru engine vs the 2.5.

 

[paflyer]

The average 15k miles per year American would need about as much power per day to charge an EV as they would running an air conditioner for 2 hours per day.

And EVs can charge overnight when ACs and ovens are off, and businesses are closed.

Not saying some pockets won’t need improvement, but the majority of the grid can handle it just fine.

AC is off at night? Where do you live? Mine runs 24 hrs when it's above 75 degrees.

My oven is natural gas.

What if you have to park in the street? What if you have 4 cars in the family?