Stock Market thoughts (continued - no politics please!)

Did anyone else see the article about the Fed increasing the amount they are putting into a pool of money for banks to lend out that appeared on CNBC yesterday?( A search for the article will give it to you otherwise I’d link it here.) I think the Fed is worried the banks need more money to lend out because many are up against their reserve requirements and, by law, won’t be able to give out loans because they won’t have enough money left in the bank to meet the reserve requirements. In a collapse like this it’s important to be looking at what others are not looking at. If this move by the FED signals anything, to me it signals a real worry that loans may be the only way out of this mess.

Here’s a link to an article that shows what the FED has been doing behind closed doors recently. You want to be worried more- read it.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the...the-repo-market.-where-does-it-end-2020-01-20
 
Just remember, you’re silly to pay off your mortgage because you can earn much more in the market. /s
 
Looking at Apple or Tesla. How long to wait before buy?
 
TCABM said:
Boeing is down to under $170/share. I’m thinking $150 is my target price right now.
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I think Boeing is headed even lower than that.

Saw something that they drew down the entire loan they took out to cover the Max.
 
Not gutsy enough to play individual stocks, but flipped the kitty at COB today to take advantage of this panic, went from balanced to aggressive.

10 year timeline, so we shall see.
 
wsuffa said:
I think Boeing is headed even lower than that.

Saw something that they drew down the entire loan they took out to cover the Max.
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Saw that too, and believe the same. It gets compounded with airlines parking planes right now due to reduced travel demand. Today’s close was $154. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go under $100 by the end of next week. Although sooner or later someone big is going to see the value there and start buying it up.
 
TCABM said:
Saw that too, and believe the same. It gets compounded with airlines parking planes right now due to reduced travel demand. Today’s close was $154. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go under $100 by the end of next week. Although sooner or later someone big is going to see the value there and start buying it up.
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That assumes it doesn't end up like GE or IBM. Corporate consolidations can be good, but when they get too big it's not good at all. Like the other 2 companies I mentioned, I think they're going to have to shed assets at some point. And that may be the point where the FAA decides they've been punished enough.
 
We'll be lucky if we only get a 10% drop tomorrow. Futures already hit their down stop tonigh.
 
wsuffa said:
We'll be lucky if we only get a 10% drop tomorrow. Futures already hit their down stop tonigh.
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I expect full panic mode, they’ll probably stop trading like they did last week, just after opening. And maybe even 2nd trigger point (20% I think).
 
MooneyDriver78 said:
I expect full panic mode, they’ll probably stop trading like they did last week, just after opening. And maybe even 2nd trigger point (20% I think).
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From Vanguard:

Level 1 halt (7%)

  • Trading will halt for 15 minutes if drop occurs before 3:25 p.m.
  • At or after 3:25 p.m.—trading shall continue, unless there is a Level 3 halt.
Level 2 halt (13%)

  • Trading will halt for 15 minutes if drop occurs before 3:25 p.m.
  • At or after 3:25 p.m.—trading shall continue, unless there is a Level 3 halt.
Level 3 halt (20%)

  • At any time during the trading day—trading shall halt for the remainder of the trading day.
 
Don't look good. Friday was a dead cat. Cash is king.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
I was around for ‘87, wasn’t smart enough to matter, adult but too young.

Dot com and 9/11, was in it for the long haul, not worried anyway.

Housing crisis, I stayed the course and used it as a gutsy buying opportunity, real estate and equities.

Last week, took 2/3 of my cash in my fun-money account and bought into a few select stocks as a gamble. Gonna buy more over the next quarter or two.

In my retirement accounts, went full cash (no tax penalty for selling); I’m not gonna be around long enough to just sit back and be patient and simply watch a 50% portfolio loss that will require a 200% gain just to break even; Screw that. I’ll buy in later and lose a chance or two at some potential gains. At least I protected the next 30% down.

I’m not timing the market, I am the market.
 
Bayer Ag (BAYRY) was just ordered/agreed to pay $10B for glyphosate/cancer claims as well as others.
Does anyone think the stock will dip because of this news?
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
Bayer Ag (BAYRY) was just ordered/agreed to pay $10B for glyphosate/cancer claims as well as others.
Does anyone think the stock will dip because of this news?
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368 billion dollar company. They can afford it, but not the best press

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denverd1 said:
368 billion dollar company. They can afford it, but not the best press

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I was seeking opinions on if anyone expected the stock price to drop from this news (I agree it is not nearly enough to sink them). Anyone else? Thanks
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
I was seeking opinions on if anyone expected the stock price to drop from this news (I agree it is not nearly enough to sink them). Anyone else? Thanks
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Haha!!

Id be more worried about the overall market falling 710 pts today than the JNJ news....

Guess I should update my profile

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Let'sgoflying! said:
I was seeking opinions on if anyone expected the stock price to drop from this news (I agree it is not nearly enough to sink them). Anyone else? Thanks
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Well I think it was a reduction from the original amount, so I doubt they take much of a stock hit. It's not like this just came out of the blue, it's been years in the making.
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
I was seeking opinions on if anyone expected the stock price to drop from this news (I agree it is not nearly enough to sink them). Anyone else? Thanks
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In an “Efficient Market”, it’s as likely to go up as down - or stay the same.

Why? Because everything you know, every other investor knows as well. So, the news is already baked into the price. Of course, this assumes you don’t have inside information.

I still hold that “intuition” may serve one in parsing out better or earlier than others the effect of certain news or actions on a stock’s price. But in the back of my mind, I suspect I’m falling victim to being “Fooled By Randomness” as Taleb puts it.
 
Sam D said:
Just remember, you’re silly to pay off your mortgage because you can earn much more in the market. /s
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or perhaps you’re silly to owe money in uncertain times. If you pay off the mortgage, your house is yours and it only takes a month working at McDonalds to pay the annual taxes. No matter what, you have a place to live.
 
denverd1 said:
I’d be more worried about the overall market falling 710 pts today than the JNJ news....
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why, do you think it’s not coming back? The market goes up and it goes down. Before the year is out, we will get news on vaccines and the market is going to skyrocket.
 
45M unemployed, another 1.54M just announced
Negative GDP growth for 2020
Market failed to retest Feb/Mar highs

It's a defensive stock so will likely do better than most. Just quite a few headwinds IMO

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I am amazed stocks are holding up as well as they are. Also, I don’t understand the resilience of the retail marketplace. At the beginning of all this crap, we were promised great deals on used cars and trucks. All of which have actually gone up, a lot. Looking for a motorcycle doesn’t appear that any of the dealers have any particular desperation or motivation to lower their prices.
Can someone please explain this to me?
 
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Morgan3820 said:
I am amazed stocks are holding up as well as they are. Also, I don’t understand the resilience of the retail marketplace. At the beginning of all this crap, we were promised great deals on used cars and trucks. All of which have actually gone up, a lot. Looking for a motorcycle doesn’t appear that any of the dealers have any particular desperation or motivation to lower their prices.
Can someone please explain this to me?
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A significant portion of the workforce is making more money on unemployment than they would if they were working with the $600/wk federal stipend. Lots of spending going on with retail, especially home improvement and even vehicles. Dealerships won't let prices until people aren't buying anymore. Once the federal assistance ends, then you'll see retail get pinched.
 
SoonerAviator said:
A significant portion of the workforce is making more money on unemployment than they would if they were working with the $600/wk federal stipend. Lots of spending going on with retail, especially home improvement and even vehicles. Dealerships won't let prices until people aren't buying anymore. Once the federal assistance ends, then you'll see retail get pinched.
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My brother is in management at Lowes, he says the lockdown months have been ALLTIME record setting sales months for most stores. They can't keep product on the shelves.
 
SoonerAviator said:
A significant portion of the workforce is making more money on unemployment than they would if they were working with the $600/wk federal stipend. Lots of spending going on with retail, especially home improvement and even vehicles. Dealerships won't let prices until people aren't buying anymore. Once the federal assistance ends, then you'll see retail get pinched.
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That stipend is scheduled to end July 31. Knowing that, You think that people would be saving rather than spending.
 
Morgan3820 said:
That stipend is scheduled to end July 31. Knowing that, You think that people would be saving rather than spending.
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Not in planet USA. We have one of the lowest savings rates in the industrial world. And have for decades; in fact I am pretty sure it is getting worse.

Tim
 
Morgan3820 said:
I am amazed stocks are holding up as well as they are. Also, I don’t understand the resilience of the retail marketplace. At the beginning of all this crap, we were promised great deals on used cars and trucks. All of which have actually gone up, a lot. Looking for a motorcycle doesn’t appear that any of the dealers have any particular desperation or motivation to lower their prices.
Can someone please explain this to me?
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The one we bought from is just sitting on some extra inventory on their lot, especially lease returns, but the place was as busy as I’ve ever seen it both on sales and service sides.

Now that I think about it, the seriously economically challenged are either in or ending leases. They’re not buyers. That explains a good chunk of it.

Leases are the payday loans of the car biz.

Which... even though it was technically pre-Covid kinda... we got a really decent sale deal on a lease return.

Other than needing the ECU reset to a better fuel mix for the altitude change between here and PA, it looks and drives like new.

Dealer gets a small profit on us, which keeps the lights on, and they can then snap up new sales from the bored or “Man if I’m gonna die of Covid I’m going out with a decent car” crowd, plus the usual “We had a baby, life goes on, we need a different, “safe”, “reliable”, vehicle” crowd.

Service dept is playing Marketing games. “25% off!” But they clearly raised their prices to make it up. LOL. You don’t want to know what they charged to change differential fluid. But let’s just say they’re invoicing $90/hr for labor.

Same game. Get the people who are bored and normally neglect maintenance in.

It was working. Big time. Never seen that many people sitting in front of their TV waiting on things.

Whether they can afford those things or not, different story. But I bet a lot of it went on credit cards and new long-term debt. Their decision.
 
Morgan3820 said:
That stipend is scheduled to end July 31. Knowing that, You think that people would be saving rather than spending.
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In the US? HA!

We can't even get people to wear masks or admit that Covid is a real disease.

The government will always bail us out. And if not, we'll just elect people who give us free money.

(sarcasm intended).
 
denverpilot said:
The one we bought from is just sitting on some extra inventory on their lot, especially lease returns, but the place was as busy as I’ve ever seen it both on sales and service sides.

Now that I think about it, the seriously economically challenged are either in or ending leases. They’re not buyers. That explains a good chunk of it.

Leases are the payday loans of the car biz.

Which... even though it was technically pre-Covid kinda... we got a really decent sale deal on a lease return.

Other than needing the ECU reset to a better fuel mix for the altitude change between here and PA, it looks and drives like new.

Dealer gets a small profit on us, which keeps the lights on, and they can then snap up new sales from the bored or “Man if I’m gonna die of Covid I’m going out with a decent car” crowd, plus the usual “We had a baby, life goes on, we need a different, “safe”, “reliable”, vehicle” crowd.

Service dept is playing Marketing games. “25% off!” But they clearly raised their prices to make it up. LOL. You don’t want to know what they charged to change differential fluid. But let’s just say they’re invoicing $90/hr for labor.

Same game. Get the people who are bored and normally neglect maintenance in.

It was working. Big time. Never seen that many people sitting in front of their TV waiting on things.

Whether they can afford those things or not, different story. But I bet a lot of it went on credit cards and new long-term debt. Their decision.
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And manages to screw those of us who need to buy a new car because someone in a 2020 BMW 8-series managed to run a light and total the old one. Probably more damage to their car than ours was worth, but that's their problem as they accepted blame. Really short on inventory on some kinds of used vehicles around here (don't wanna take the depreciation hit on a new one).
 
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