Stock Market thoughts (continued - no politics please!)

[Chip Sylverne]

well....they don't start there....but, in a few years they're there.


btw....you should give yourself a raise.

But on the other hand, my nephew just got offered an entry-level engineering job at $80k. And since his Mom's an MD, he didn't have to go into debt for the degree. So in a few years...well...you see where this is going.

Look, I'm not saying the trades aren't important, and tradesmen aren't valuable. Just saying it's tough work. I worked construction to put myself through college. . No way you could do that today. Sure, you can make a good living as a mason, but when you get to be 60, those blocks get a lot heavier. The road to working with your brain instead of your hands and back is a lot tougher for today's kids than is was for us. That ain't right.

 

[Chip Sylverne]

Right and I want to clarify, my arguement does not come from a fairness perspective, it comes from a economic perspective. I don’t support redistributing wealth at all. That’s not the answer. I 100% believe the answer is financial education and I’m trying to do my part by teaching economics to seniors in High School everyday!

I think it depends on how you define redistribution. If it means providing real, quality pre-primary, primary, secondary and post-secondary education for every child willing to do the work, without bankrupting them in the process, then I'm all for it. If it means cutting everybody a check for taking up space, no thanks.

 

[Half Fast]

My point is, if the average US household has over 8000 dollars in credit card debt and household debt of 137,000 dollars( both numbers looked up) we can’t just imagine that “because I did it the right way everyone should do it that way.” That’s short sighted and a bit self indulging and it’s certainly not the way economic policy should be driven.

Nor should economic policy be driven by some paternal desire to make people "do it the right way." One (perhaps sad) aspect of a free society is the freedom to dig oneself into a hole. It's one thing to protect people from predators and swindlers; it's an entirely different matter if we seek to protect them from themselves.

I agree that education is the answer, but bear in mind that adults have the responsibility to educate themselves. Bad decisions will have their own penalties. If an adult citizen of sound mind chooses to rack up a huge mound of credit card debt and to sign onto a mortgage and balloon note so he can live in splendor, who am I to tell him no?

We’ve had accommodating economic policy in this country for going on 12 years now and there is no going back. The absolutely terrifying proposition is what happens when money becomes free to borrow and banks can’t remain open because they can’t make money. We are not there yet but it could be not as far off as we think.

Since the US can print its own money, I think we'll see some printing and some related inflation instead. Of course, that can get way out of hand, but I don't think we're headed there.

Apart from monetary policy, the fundamental components of an economy are resources and the ability and willingness of people to tap those resources and make productive use of them. Viewed that way, the foundation of the US economy is strong, and I think unless we do something phenomenally stupid the money policy will adapt itself appropriately over the long run.

 

[jsstevens]

College costs are the inevitable outcome of people being told "it's the only way to a decent job" and huge amounts of money being pumped into the market via guaranteed loans. (Coupled with unscrupulous, predatory people opening for profit colleges that are rip offs.) In addition, because folks are told "follow your dreams" you've got folks racking up $100K of student debt for a degree in a subject they may love, but not one that prepares you for a career. If you have a Ph.D in Egyptian history and a gift for writing grant applications (not teaching particularly) you can perhaps make a career out of being a college professor. If you only have an M.A. or B.A, not so much.

 

[denverpilot]

We’ve had accommodating economic policy in this country for going on 12 years now and there is no going back. The absolutely terrifying proposition is what happens when money becomes free to borrow and banks can’t remain open because they can’t make money. We are not there yet but it could be not as far off as we think.

More than 12.

Economic collapses are never very far off in human history. Think of it more as an inevitability. Recessions and depressions reset the wants vs needs meters of hundreds of millions of people, regularly.

Also resets their trust in people who claimed they’d take care of it, while lining their pockets. Makes paying taxes worth every dollar earned from Jan-May of every year look silly, and the bankers jump out of windows.

Was only three generations ago, including mine, the last time we did it. Grandpa regaled us with stories of surviving by eating food he grew himself and put in a dirt cellar and sending the government poaching warden packing with a well placed rifle shot into the fence post next to the gate he was attempting to open to arrive unannounced.

Not fun I suppose, but not unexpected or unpredictable. The powers that be can only lie for so long, the math always catches up eventually. They can change the game rules and pretend that’s okay, like rescuing AIG, but that’s not going to work forever. It was just more palatable than shooting the bankers this time.

People adapt. If the choice is a soup line or a deadly job at a government camp to build stuff like the Hoover Dam, some will choose the hard work at the deadly place and others will stand in line.

Some will steal and rob.

Some will amass a family fortune selling illegal (liquid) drugs and send a kid to be President who will tell us all not to ask anything of government but to do more ourselves.

History is truly that strange.

Can’t really separate the economics department from the history department.

Plenty of folks see the resets coming as inevitable as water running downhill. Prediction doesn’t really stop them from happening.

We can’t predict how any massive scale human event will go ... any better than grandpa could have known he’d be eating beets and potatoes for years, and rationing 22 shells for rabbits... and the fence post next to the government bureaucrat’s noggin.

Assuming we deserve anything at all of this life is kinda silly, looking over the history books.

Both grandpa and the government guy understood how it works. Grandpa kept eating rabbits and I’m sure the government published some nice report that no poaching was happening anywhere, and therefore civilization was intact, so the government guy could continue to eat, too. They both grew old and had stories for their grandkids.

Some rich folk instigated a war over taxes and wrote that we all get to pursue happiness... not be guaranteed it by a central bank saving you from a personal inability to prioritize spending.

Teaching economics is great, but a good old fashioned recession or depression is a much faster teacher for those who skipped history class.

It’s fun to watch people lament that they’re poor, and Jeff Bezos has too much money, as they click on Amazon to buy something else they don’t need, though.

You could teach production and demand curves all day to everyone you meet, and that group would never... ever... get it... that they cause their own suffering.

It’s the old wisdom of knowing anybody who isn’t happy with what they’ve got, won’t be happy if you give them the world.

There’s always a silver lining to humans being stupid. One of our family members specializes in closing down and unwinding failed banks. Lemons and lemonade and all that. The housing crisis treated him pretty well.

In his spare time afforded by crazy Americans buying houses they couldn’t afford, he helps figure out how to bring banking to third world countries so someone can buy a goat as their only worldly possession.

 

[denverpilot]

If anyone is bored, and not out tending your goat, you can watch a video about a $300+ dollar toaster vs a $13 one and contemplate just how bad life must be here to have such difficult economic times... watching on your pocket computer via wireless data, of course.

LOL.

 

[Chip Sylverne]

Pop

More than 12.

Economic collapses are never very far off in human history. Think of it more as an inevitability. Recessions and depressions reset the wants vs needs meters of hundreds of millions of people, regularly.

Also resets their trust in people who claimed they’d take care of it, while lining their pockets. Makes paying taxes worth every dollar earned from Jan-May of every year look silly, and the bankers jump out of windows.

Was only three generations ago, including mine, the last time we did it. Grandpa regaled us with stories of surviving by eating food he grew himself and put in a dirt cellar and sending the government poaching warden packing with a well placed rifle shot into the fence post next to the gate he was attempting to open to arrive unannounced.

Not fun I suppose, but not unexpected or unpredictable. The powers that be can only lie for so long, the math always catches up eventually. They can change the game rules and pretend that’s okay, like rescuing AIG, but that’s not going to work forever. It was just more palatable than shooting the bankers this time.

People adapt. If the choice is a soup line or a deadly job at a government camp to build stuff like the Hoover Dam, some will choose the hard work at the deadly place and others will stand in line.

Some will steal and rob.

Some will amass a family fortune selling illegal (liquid) drugs and send a kid to be President who will tell us all not to ask anything of government but to do more ourselves.

History is truly that strange.

Can’t really separate the economics department from the history department.

Plenty of folks see the resets coming as inevitable as water running downhill. Prediction doesn’t really stop them from happening.

We can’t predict how any massive scale human event will go ... any better than grandpa could have known he’d be eating beets and potatoes for years, and rationing 22 shells for rabbits... and the fence post next to the government bureaucrat’s noggin.

Assuming we deserve anything at all of this life is kinda silly, looking over the history books.

Both grandpa and the government guy understood how it works. Grandpa kept eating rabbits and I’m sure the government published some nice report that no poaching was happening anywhere, and therefore civilization was intact, so the government guy could continue to eat, too. They both grew old and had stories for their grandkids.

Some rich folk instigated a war over taxes and wrote that we all get to pursue happiness... not be guaranteed it by a central bank saving you from a personal inability to prioritize spending.

Teaching economics is great, but a good old fashioned recession or depression is a much faster teacher for those who skipped history class.

It’s fun to watch people lament that they’re poor, and Jeff Bezos has too much money, as they click on Amazon to buy something else they don’t need, though.

You could teach production and demand curves all day to everyone you meet, and that group would never... ever... get it... that they cause their own suffering.

It’s the old wisdom of knowing anybody who isn’t happy with what they’ve got, won’t be happy if you give them the world.

There’s always a silver lining to humans being stupid. One of our family members specializes in closing down and unwinding failed banks. Lemons and lemonade and all that. The housing crisis treated him pretty well.

In his spare time afforded by crazy Americans buying houses they couldn’t afford, he helps figure out how to bring banking to third world countries so someone can buy a goat as their only worldly possession.

Interesting read, but a lot malarkey in it. History shows the tragic result of wide, unaddressed disparities in wealth caused by the powerful taking from the powerless. The Irish potato famine was the underpinning of the economic concept of marginal utility when it was discovered a shilling's worth of grain was worth a lot more to the starving peasant as food than the same shillings' worth of grain used in a rich man's distillery. The robber- baron period here during the gilded age resulted in great economic progress in terms of expansion, but it also resulted in poisonous food and toxic "medicines" sold to the poor in pursuit of profits, and unchecked labor exploitation.

People can adapt, or people can rebel. Grandma and Grandpa also understood when enough was enough, when the Triangle shirt factory fire resulted in labor cracking the door open so a little enlightenment could pass through. World history is replete with examples of the rich and powerful exploiting the poor and powerless until a few, or more than a few, draw a line in the sand. When adressing the imbalance is violent, it's called revolution, when it's peaceful, it's called progress.

To be sure, individuals make dumb life decisions on a personal level, and shirk accountability. But it's also true you can steal more with a briefcase than you can with a gun, that pretty much defines the intersection of history and economics. And today, the disparity between rich and poor in the US rivals he worst it has ever been in the modern age. Continuing to foster a "hooray for me and the hell with you" national ethos is no way to pursue a more perfect union.

 

[CharlieD3]

"Markets can remain foolish longer than investors can stay solvent"... Or something like that.

 

[wsuffa]

they must not pay much in Mt. Airy.....

Houses are a lot cheaper there, too. I can't see too many making the drive down to DC/NoVA every day.

We come up to Frederick for Keys games several times each summer - the drive is a pain in the rear, but it's great value for the dollar.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

I drive to DC most every day.......cept on Monday's and Friday's

 

[wsuffa]

I drive to DC most every day.......cept on Monday's and Friday's

Well, they do say there's one in every crowd....

Seriously, though, I did that when I lived in NY in my 20's (60-90 minutes into the city from the area of Beacon). At this point in my life, I have no interest in doing that kind of commute again.... Good for you if you can deal with 270 every day.

 

[denverpilot]

And today, the disparity between rich and poor in the US rivals he worst it has ever been in the modern age. Continuing to foster a "hooray for me and the hell with you" national ethos is no way to pursue a more perfect union.

Who here (and especially not me) has said that?

The reality is, the narrative that people are doing worse was over a number of years ago.

The distribution around that median is pretty much the bell curve it always has been, minus a tiny spike at the right of the super-rich.

It has no bearing on the vast majority. Could redistribute every dollar the spike have and it would be a relatively small one time check to everyone.

Which part was Mullarkey?

I didn’t mention that there were super rich who ate steak dinners every night right through the Great Depression. They’ll always be there. A great many weren’t mean to anybody. They simply exited their businesses and waited.

I said the vast majority of us simply adapt.

I left out that idealists are extremely dangerous and usually make the rest of us, mostly realists, shoot people for whatever their causes are, historically.

 

[Chip Sylverne]

Who said it? None other than the CBO.

Https://www.huffpost.com/entry/income-inequality_n_1032632

The mularkey part? That people cause they're own suffering, and that they don't or can't understand the forces at play upon them. MLK understood it, the Uighers understand it, the folks fleeing Central America understand it, Americans are starting to understand it across many dimensions. To say that if people aren't happy with what they have, they won't be happy with anything, is a pretty patronizing point of view.

 

[tspear]

College costs are the inevitable outcome of people being told "it's the only way to a decent job" and huge amounts of money being pumped into the market via guaranteed loans. (Coupled with unscrupulous, predatory people opening for profit colleges that are rip offs.) In addition, because folks are told "follow your dreams" you've got folks racking up $100K of student debt for a degree in a subject they may love, but not one that prepares you for a career. If you have a Ph.D in Egyptian history and a gift for writing grant applications (not teaching particularly) you can perhaps make a career out of being a college professor. If you only have an M.A. or B.A, not so much.

The following information is from a friend of the family who was on a college board of trustees for two different schools for over thirty years.
Look at the portion of funding schools get. Going on memory, my parents generation tuition at the public schools represented about 5% of the revenue of the school. When I went in the early 90s, tuition was running about 1/3 of the school revenue. Now for my kids, tuition is running about 2/3 of school revenue.
State mostly, and some decrease in Fed spending are the largest contributor for why tuition has been going up like crazy. (plus the health insurance costs add to it).

Tim

 

[denverpilot]

Who said it? None other than the CBO.

Https://www.huffpost.com/entry/income-inequality_n_1032632

The mularkey part? That people cause they're own suffering, and that they don't or can't understand the forces at play upon them. MLK understood it, the Uighers understand it, the folks fleeing Central America understand it, Americans are starting to understand it across many dimensions. To say that if people aren't happy with what they have, they won't be happy with anything, is a pretty patronizing point of view.

Nice Huffpo link. Check out that 11 year ago end date on that data. Highly convincing. The graph from the census I posted showed your data and almost another decade worth.

You’re operating from ancient history, linking to a highly political site, and expecting anyone to not notice ... in a discussion of today’s stock market?

LOL. Hilarious. Catch up. Seriously.

Lovely list of imagery to hide the lack of substance. MLK was big in the stock market, eh? ROFLMAO.

Take the politics elsewhere. We’re taking human nature, investing, and monetary policy. Not civil rights history. There’s no restrictions by race, creed, etc... on saving pennies and phoning up Vanguard.

As far as people who aren’t ever happy with what they have, they’re everywhere.

So prevalent is the grumpy soccer mom that we even have “Karen wants to talk to your manager” memes made by the hundreds of thousands based upon the real behavior of doofuses from the ‘burbs who complain about everything.

Gimme a break. There’s all sorts of unhappy people running around in their Lexus’ stuffing record amounts of SSRIs down their pie holes.

Today’s radio PSA as I was driving around...

“1 in 5 kids is experiencing depression or other mental health related issues, and 2/3 won’t get treated.”

They were raised by joyful people with solid values and priorities about what’s important in life. Sure. Hahahahahaha. Alllllll their parents are overcome with deep gratitude and joy daily.

As they curse the opposition political party and hate half their neighbors, I might add. Lovely folk. Pure unadulterated happiness.

And nobody cuts anybody off in traffic either. Utopia has been achieved!

 

[jspilot]

Pop



Interesting read, but a lot malarkey in it. History shows the tragic result of wide, unaddressed disparities in wealth caused by the powerful taking from the powerless. The Irish potato famine was the underpinning of the economic concept of marginal utility when it was discovered a shilling's worth of grain was worth a lot more to the starving peasant as food than the same shillings' worth of grain used in a rich man's distillery. The robber- baron period here during the gilded age resulted in great economic progress in terms of expansion, but it also resulted in poisonous food and toxic "medicines" sold to the poor in pursuit of profits, and unchecked labor exploitation.

People can adapt, or people can rebel. Grandma and Grandpa also understood when enough was enough, when the Triangle shirt factory fire resulted in labor cracking the door open so a little enlightenment could pass through. World history is replete with examples of the rich and powerful exploiting the poor and powerless until a few, or more than a few, draw a line in the sand. When adressing the imbalance is violent, it's called revolution, when it's peaceful, it's called progress.

To be sure, individuals make dumb life decisions on a personal level, and shirk accountability. But it's also true you can steal more with a briefcase than you can with a gun, that pretty much defines the intersection of history and economics. And today, the disparity between rich and poor in the US rivals he worst it has ever been in the modern age. Continuing to foster a "hooray for me and the hell with you" national ethos is no way to pursue a more perfect union.

Just to add more historical perspective— each previous major market crash was precipitated by a time in history with the greatest disparity in wealth and the most wealth concentrated in the fewest hands. And it makes sense— when only a few control more than the many, the few can’t spend enough and don’t spend that much( how many pears of jeans does one person really need.)

I don’t love the bias of the documentary but a good one to look at for this topic of wealth disparity is “Inequality for all” which features Robert Reich and his thoughts( opinions really) on this topic. If you can weed through his bias he has a lot of really good visual graphs that show this concept well.

 

[jspilot]

The following information is from a friend of the family who was on a college board of trustees for two different schools for over thirty years.
Look at the portion of funding schools get. Going on memory, my parents generation tuition at the public schools represented about 5% of the revenue of the school. When I went in the early 90s, tuition was running about 1/3 of the school revenue. Now for my kids, tuition is running about 2/3 of school revenue.
State mostly, and some decrease in Fed spending are the largest contributor for why tuition has been going up like crazy. (plus the health insurance costs add to it).

Tim

This is accurate if you are talking public universities and again is a major contributing factor to why wealth continues to be accumulated in the hands of a few. A less educated populace is not in anyone’s interest— including the wealthy.

Your point falls short though because private universities can charge whatever they want and are essentially a market based decision.

 

[jspilot]

Who here (and especially not me) has said that?

The reality is, the narrative that people are doing worse was over a number of years ago.

The distribution around that median is pretty much the bell curve it always has been, minus a tiny spike at the right of the super-rich.

It has no bearing on the vast majority. Could redistribute every dollar the spike have and it would be a relatively small one time check to everyone.

Which part was Mullarkey?

I didn’t mention that there were super rich who ate steak dinners every night right through the Great Depression. They’ll always be there. A great many weren’t mean to anybody. They simply exited their businesses and waited.

I said the vast majority of us simply adapt.

I left out that idealists are extremely dangerous and usually make the rest of us, mostly realists, shoot people for whatever their causes are, historically.

Good source and one I show my students often( the census is a great data base for a lot of info that is not bias). No question wages have increased with President Trump and we have witnessed a real change in many groups that were left behind with the past many years of financial prosperity. What I’m curious about from an economic standpoint is, we have also watched a real increase in debt and that seems like we should see less debt with increasing salaries— we are not. To me, that supports the conclusion that many Americans are living beyond their means and solidifies my stance that easing conditions and accommodating Fed policy is here to stay.

I’m forgetting which big investor said it today— the article is on CNBC if anyone wants to search for it— but he made a fascinating point which basically said once the American consumer falls apart— or stops spending out of fear, a real concern with the Coronavirus panic— the economic stability of the US is done. 70% give or take of the economy is made of consumer spending. As long as consumers spend, and really who cares how they spend I guess— the economy works. It’s sort of as simple as that.

I get it’s not the way it should work, but it’s really the way it’s always been, just not on the same levels it is today!

 

[Chip Sylverne]

Nice Huffpo link. Check out that 11 year ago end date on that data. Highly convincing. The graph from the census I posted showed your data and almost another decade worth.

You’re operating from ancient history, linking to a highly political site, and expecting anyone to not notice ... in a discussion of today’s stock market?

LOL. Hilarious. Catch up. Seriously.

Lovely list of imagery to hide the lack of substance. MLK was big in the stock market, eh? ROFLMAO.

Take the politics elsewhere. We’re taking human nature, investing, and monetary policy. Not civil rights history. There’s no restrictions by race, creed, etc... on saving pennies and phoning up Vanguard.

As far as people who aren’t ever happy with what they have, they’re everywhere.

So prevalent is the grumpy soccer mom that we even have “Karen wants to talk to your manager” memes made by the hundreds of thousands based upon the real behavior of doofuses from the ‘burbs who complain about everything.

Gimme a break. There’s all sorts of unhappy people running around in their Lexus’ stuffing record amounts of SSRIs down their pie holes.

Today’s radio PSA as I was driving around...

“1 in 5 kids is experiencing depression or other mental health related issues, and 2/3 won’t get treated.”

They were raised by joyful people with solid values and priorities about what’s important in life. Sure. Hahahahahaha. Alllllll their parents are overcome with deep gratitude and joy daily.

As they curse the opposition political party and hate half their neighbors, I might add. Lovely folk. Pure unadulterated happiness.

And nobody cuts anybody off in traffic either. Utopia has been achieved!

The source of the data is the CBO, apparently you can't separate that from the media outlet. Your data only shows median income. Well, when Jeff Bezos walks into a room, the median income in that room goes up considerably. Not terribly granular, is it? Perhaps you should brush up your critical thinking skills.

The wealth gap has only grown wider since 2007. You pointed to the intersection of economics and history, I just responded using examples of said history to make a point.

In other words, you opened the door.

I'm closing it.

 

[scorpio]

Pop


And today, the disparity between rich and poor in the US rivals he worst it has ever been in the modern age. Continuing to foster a "hooray for me and the hell with you" national ethos is no way to pursue a more perfect union.

It should also be considered that the "poor" have a quality of living status today which is vastly better, relatively speaking, to the past. I'd much rather be considered "poor" today than anytime in history.

 

[scorpio]

The source of the data is the CBO, apparently you can't separate that from the media outlet. Your data only shows median income. Well, when Jeff Bezos walks into a room, the median income in that room goes up considerably. Not terribly granular, is it? Perhaps you should brush up your critical thinking skills.

I'm closing it.

This statistic is stating the median, not the mean.

 

[Chip Sylverne]

It should also be considered that the "poor" have a quality of living status today which is vastly better, relatively speaking, to the past. I'd much rather be considered "poor" today than anytime in history.

I agree with you to some extent, but there are real grievances about how much of the national wealth should continue to flow to the above 10%. Interesting article in the NYT on that just today.

Mean or median, an income of multiple billion in a room of tens or even hundreds of thousands is going to skew. Mode, I'll grant you.

And before I get jumped on for "But, but ,but this is a stock market thread", the above graphic also illustrates ownership in the equity markets.

 

[Chip Sylverne]

Dow opening down 870. 10yr at .71.

 

[denverpilot]

The source of the data is the CBO, apparently you can't separate that from the media outlet. Your data only shows median income. Well, when Jeff Bezos walks into a room, the median income in that room goes up considerably. Not terribly granular, is it? Perhaps you should brush up your critical thinking skills.

The wealth gap has only grown wider since 2007. You pointed to the intersection of economics and history, I just responded using examples of said history to make a point.

In other words, you opened the door.

I'm closing it.

Nah, let’s not. Let’s ask real world questions.

1. Do you teach your kids if they work hard and do something amazing, that they’ll get rewarded? Perhaps handsomely?

2. Do you teach them to hate people who do?

Or the really fun one...

3. If you do really well, you can leave a legacy of charity and stability for your family for generations to come. Perhaps via shrewd investments?

This is the irony of the envious types and why I said at their very core, they can’t be happy.

They’ll teach their own kids to work hard and be successful and save, while telling the kid to hate the successful and feel guilty about it - at the same time.

(Archer joke: “You want to create a major mental health problem, that’s how you create a major mental health problem!”)

They won’t (notice I didn’t say can’t) put forth the effort of a Bezos or Musk... but they’ll sure complain about them. While they buy their products or services, of course.

“Damn it! We created a bbbbbb-billionaire! Burn the witch!”

LOL. Funny as hell really. Doesn’t really matter the generation. I’m sure they hated every one of them, as they led their mediocre lives and were forgotten. All the while, telling the kids to work hard and become a wealthy superstar.

Their lives would be far worse without the stuff the billionaire created, but they can’t see it. Or give the billionaire his or her due.

“Wealth inequality! Wealth inequality!” they screech ... from their iPhone. LOL. Tim Cook would send his thanks, but he’s got a private jet to catch.

A friend and I lamented once that we had the idea for eBay at least four years before it happened. We didn’t build it. We had the right people available, and skills. Oh well. That’s on us, not the people who did. We might have once been a tad jealous, but not envious. Very different things. We felt like talking about stuff like that over Scotch and throwing darts instead of building them. Plus we were busy building infrastructure for similar things. (Mapquest, Expedia, and others were early customers.)

If people don’t like billionaires they shouldn’t buy things from them. It’s really not that difficult to avoid them. (Utilities and telecoms being a major exception, but people begged government to limit those and force that, so they got exactly what they asked for.)

As someone else noted too, whenever someone complains about corporate profits, if you ask them why they don’t invest and get a piece of it — for no effort at all, they give you blank stares.

Yeah sure, they also don’t invest in anything because they need to pay for a rented smartphone made out of fragile glass, and replace or upgrade every two years for no real reason, at $200/month... but that’s just what you do when you have no plan for earned money.

Again, Mr Cook would call... but he’s busy spending your money you sent. Monthly. For more than a decade. Maybe you don’t need a smartphone and hours on message boards, but you do you... that smartphone money invested from your 20s will make you a 1%er by retirement. Your high school diploma proves you have enough math knowledge to calculate compound interest. It’s not a secret.

Before my illness I was mentoring folks on personal finance, and I’ll get back to it eventually. It’s a lot more effective than whining about billionaires. They’ll see their lives change in ten years or less compared to... never being happy. Heck, most seriously see a change in a few months, once they have a written budget and a real plan for their income.

There’s fake care for others: Complaining about billionaires.

And real care for others: Giving of time and money consistently.

I just do the latter.

And maybe wish I’d invested in Buffett in his early days when he was broke.

Probably shouldn’t have sold that AAPL at around $100 either, but oh well! It was what I needed to do at that time. I had massive debts to pay.

I WISH I had access to Roths and HSAs in my 20-30s! Screaming deals. Ain’t nothing better than a 20-40% discount on stock market growth! Also wasn’t possible to invest small amounts back then, which is easy to do today. Minimums were $10K instead of $1K. Made it look more daunting than it was.

Wealth inequality has a much lower mathematical effect on the vast majority than their spending decisions. It has a huge emotional effect, which isn’t backed up by the math when you get them to sit down and do a budget. For the most part anyway. There’s always a few who need to work on the income side hard, first.

I’ll sit down and work through a budget with anybody who asks. Right now they might have to wait for an opening in various medical appointments or drive to the boonies at night, but the offer is always there. I’m not Bezos or Buffett but I’ve dug out of massive debt, and I’m a lot less busy than those two. LOL.

I promise I’ll give way better actionable advice over anybody whining about income inequality. Fake care vs real care.

 

[1RTK1]

It should also be considered that the "poor" have a quality of living status today which is vastly better, relatively speaking, to the past. I'd much rather be considered "poor" today than anytime in history.

I don't think there are many POOR people in America anymore or at least what I consider POOR. When people that don't work and are on welfare drive nice cars have nice cloths and eat more than they should, I wouldn't say they are poor. I see this daily in my line of work.

 

[MuseChaser]

@denverpilot GREAT post, Nate. Exactly on point.

 

[CharlieD3]

Who said it? None other than the CBO.

Https://www.huffpost.com/entry/income-inequality_n_1032632

The mularkey part? That people cause they're own suffering, and that they don't or can't understand the forces at play upon them. MLK understood it, the Uighers understand it, the folks fleeing Central America understand it, Americans are starting to understand it across many dimensions. To say that if people aren't happy with what they have, they won't be happy with anything, is a pretty patronizing point of view.

This wasn't s'posed to get political. And an argument that divides us makes it somewhat political...

That said, those oppressed middle income earners making ~$35 K a year are amongst the 1%rs worldwide... Are they going to redistribute their respective wealth as well? Or does this only apply to "here in 'Merica?" Where ANYONE can become wealthy.

 

[schmookeeg]

I've been talking about shoving some dry powder into VXX this week, since I have no idea what the market is gonna do, but I know it's gonna do something.

Too bad I never trade on my "I should..." casual breakfast thoughts. I'd have done pretty okay this week.

The only "movers" of the market that I see clearly are political in nature, so I'll omit my thoughts there. I remember fondly being able to look at a stock's P/E ratio and make sensible investments based on the data and financials. Sigh.

 

[Crashnburn]

"Markets can remain foolish longer than investors can stay solvent"... Or something like that.

Almost. Irrational instead of foolish. And I agree.

 

[denverpilot]

I don't think there are many POOR people in America anymore or at least what I consider POOR. When people that don't work and are on welfare drive nice cars have nice cloths and eat more than they should, I wouldn't say they are poor. I see this daily in my line of work.

We still have a homelessness problem for some. I don’t argue we don’t. It’s not massive but there’s circumstances that can trigger it.

A guy with the same medical problem I have is awaiting the clerics in black robes (Supreme Court) to decide if they’re hearing his case against the Social Security Administration.

They said he went to the wrong courthouse over a decade ago, so he doesn’t get disability. He ended up homeless by his inability to work and the statute of limitations ran out while he was on the streets.

That’s immoral and wrong. We all know this. He couldn’t afford a lawyer. But many of our laws are. Like all legal systems.

Our government punished him with homelessness for not understanding which court to make an appeal in, while he was dealing with a life changing disability.

He didn’t starve. That’s good. But he suffered homelessness and the resulting shame over that, because some dweebs “couldn’t” exercise a modicum of mercy about which building he filed some paperwork in.

That’s sick. And sadly common.

His case is fairly unlikely to be heard because the government is terrified of the resulting consequences of allowing cases that were in the wrong venue — very specifically through no fault of the person bringing them — to be re-heard. Especially against SS.

Would get expensive for them very fast, because when you win... back pay is due. Decades of it for many, who’s only error was not understanding the system and not able to afford an attorney.

So yeah. You won’t starve. But your “gooberment” who promised a safety net will happily pull it out from under you for the dire sin of filing paperwork in the wrong building. Gross how many will willingly participate in that level of behavior throughout that system and not speak up.

I've been talking about shoving some dry powder into VXX this week, since I have no idea what the market is gonna do, but I know it's gonna do something.

Too bad I never trade on my "I should..." casual breakfast thoughts. I'd have done pretty okay this week.

The only "movers" of the market that I see clearly are political in nature, so I'll omit my thoughts there. I remember fondly being able to look at a stock's P/E ratio and make sensible investments based on the data and financials. Sigh.

Heh. Brings us back to some real systemic problems in stock investing these days, to continue this interesting topic!

Value investing is hard when a large number of people invest by their politics or the PR image of the CEO over their actual business performance. Definitely a change in the last 20 years or so. I think institutional investors still tend not to still, and carry more weight, but not sure. Plus their computers follow the money, so it’s easier to shove them around, too.

Dividends are also out of vogue in many sectors and shareholders should be really angry at Boards about that, too.

But mutual funds make it far more difficult to control Boards than long ago with more individual stock investments. And too many Boards aren’t really governing, they’re just CEO clubs sitting on each other’s Boards.

That last one is a tough nut to crack.

I remember our CEO at one place buying the absolute worst possible option for a particular software package for a billion dollar a year revenue company and essentially disregarding his entire professional staff — because the software company’s CEO sat on his Board.

How she got there, I never researched at the time. Her company, as expected, is now long dead.

But I’m sure he needed her on his side in Board meetings, politically. So... buy her overpriced and awful software and subject the entire company to its problems, daily. Bad call on his part.

Wasn’t a company killing decision, and I’m sure he knew that, but that software ticked off nearly every staff member for half a decade, daily. Ugh.

And of course, to most staff, it was IT’s fault. LOL. They actually got told to stop telling people it was the CEO’s decision to use it.

He knew it sucked. That commandment came from his office. Hahaha. He was usually good about taking responsibility for his screw ups, but that one was verboten to talk about.

Just one example of how Boards are systemically broken and can break things, too. Big things.

A wise IT Director killed that software by using waning Blackberry use as the excuse to dump it. It had nothing to do with it, but it worked. Complete junk. Lost the company money vs saving it.

I wonder how many other Boards she sat on to prop up that software as long as it lasted? You can still make IT people who dealt with it shake in fits of internal rage just by mentioning it today, if they’re old enough to remember it.

Many BoDs are very very broken. Especially in Silicon Valley. Buyer beware, as always.

 

[1RTK1]

We still have a homelessness problem for some. I don’t argue we don’t. It’s not massive but there’s circumstances that can trigger it.

A guy with the same medical problem I have is awaiting the clerics in black robes (Supreme Court) to decide if they’re hearing his case against the Social Security Administration.

They said he went to the wrong courthouse over a decade ago, so he doesn’t get disability. He ended up homeless by his inability to work and the statute of limitations ran out while he was on the streets.

That’s immoral and wrong. We all know this. He couldn’t afford a lawyer. But many of our laws are. Like all legal systems.

Our government punished him with homelessness for not understanding which court to make an appeal in, while he was dealing with a life changing disability.

He didn’t starve. That’s good. But he suffered homelessness and the resulting shame over that, because some dweebs “couldn’t” exercise a modicum of mercy about which building he filed some paperwork in.

That’s sick. And sadly common.

His case is fairly unlikely to be heard because the government is terrified of the resulting consequences of allowing cases that were in the wrong venue — very specifically through no fault of the person bringing them — to be re-heard. Especially against SS.

Would get expensive for them very fast, because when you win... back pay is due. Decades of it for many, who’s only error was not understanding the system and not able to afford an attorney.

So yeah. You won’t starve. But your “gooberment” who promised a safety net will happily pull it out from under you for the dire sin of filing paperwork in the wrong building. Gross how many will willingly participate in that level of behavior throughout that system and not speak up.



.

I wasn't talking about the sick, crippled or the mistreated by the system, when I made my statement there aren't very many POOR I am relating it to the 30+% of my business that are on welfare but live like they are middle class. They are over feed and many unwilling to work because it is easier to make babies and go on the doll.
I have no problem helping those that truly need it, we should as a society, but those that are healthy and unwilling to work I have no sympathy for. I am where I am because of sacrifice and hard work, to many are not willing to do either but want everything as those that have.

I've been trading stocks since the age of 16, haven't done as well as buffet but I can't complain

 

[PPC1052]

Tim Cook would send his thanks, but he’s got a private jet to catch.

That's such a crock. There's no way that jet isn't waiting for Tim Cook.

 

[Half Fast]

I don't think there are many POOR people in America anymore or at least what I consider POOR. When people that don't work and are on welfare drive nice cars have nice cloths and eat more than they should, I wouldn't say they are poor. I see this daily in my line of work.

+1

Spend a week in Haiti and you’ll get some idea of what poverty really looks like.

 

[Chip Sylverne]

Nah, let’s not. Let’s ask real world questions.

1. Do you teach your kids if they work hard and do something amazing, that they’ll get rewarded? Perhaps handsomely?

2. Do you teach them to hate people who do?

Or the really fun one...

3. If you do really well, you can leave a legacy of charity and stability for your family for generations to come. Perhaps via shrewd investments?

This is the irony of the envious types and why I said at their very core, they can’t be happy.

They’ll teach their own kids to work hard and be successful and save, while telling the kid to hate the successful and feel guilty about it - at the same time.

(Archer joke: “You want to create a major mental health problem, that’s how you create a major mental health problem!”)

They won’t (notice I didn’t say can’t) put forth the effort of a Bezos or Musk... but they’ll sure complain about them. While they buy their products or services, of course.

“Damn it! We created a bbbbbb-billionaire! Burn the witch!”

LOL. Funny as hell really. Doesn’t really matter the generation. I’m sure they hated every one of them, as they led their mediocre lives and were forgotten. All the while, telling the kids to work hard and become a wealthy superstar.

Their lives would be far worse without the stuff the billionaire created, but they can’t see it. Or give the billionaire his or her due.

“Wealth inequality! Wealth inequality!” they screech ... from their iPhone. LOL. Tim Cook would send his thanks, but he’s got a private jet to catch.

A friend and I lamented once that we had the idea for eBay at least four years before it happened. We didn’t build it. We had the right people available, and skills. Oh well. That’s on us, not the people who did. We might have once been a tad jealous, but not envious. Very different things. We felt like talking about stuff like that over Scotch and throwing darts instead of building them. Plus we were busy building infrastructure for similar things. (Mapquest, Expedia, and others were early customers.)

If people don’t like billionaires they shouldn’t buy things from them. It’s really not that difficult to avoid them. (Utilities and telecoms being a major exception, but people begged government to limit those and force that, so they got exactly what they asked for.)

As someone else noted too, whenever someone complains about corporate profits, if you ask them why they don’t invest and get a piece of it — for no effort at all, they give you blank stares.

Yeah sure, they also don’t invest in anything because they need to pay for a rented smartphone made out of fragile glass, and replace or upgrade every two years for no real reason, at $200/month... but that’s just what you do when you have no plan for earned money.

Again, Mr Cook would call... but he’s busy spending your money you sent. Monthly. For more than a decade. Maybe you don’t need a smartphone and hours on message boards, but you do you... that smartphone money invested from your 20s will make you a 1%er by retirement. Your high school diploma proves you have enough math knowledge to calculate compound interest. It’s not a secret.

Before my illness I was mentoring folks on personal finance, and I’ll get back to it eventually. It’s a lot more effective than whining about billionaires. They’ll see their lives change in ten years or less compared to... never being happy. Heck, most seriously see a change in a few months, once they have a written budget and a real plan for their income.

There’s fake care for others: Complaining about billionaires.

And real care for others: Giving of time and money consistently.

I just do the latter.

And maybe wish I’d invested in Buffett in his early days when he was broke.

Probably shouldn’t have sold that AAPL at around $100 either, but oh well! It was what I needed to do at that time. I had massive debts to pay.

I WISH I had access to Roths and HSAs in my 20-30s! Screaming deals. Ain’t nothing better than a 20-40% discount on stock market growth! Also wasn’t possible to invest small amounts back then, which is easy to do today. Minimums were $10K instead of $1K. Made it look more daunting than it was.

Wealth inequality has a much lower mathematical effect on the vast majority than their spending decisions. It has a huge emotional effect, which isn’t backed up by the math when you get them to sit down and do a budget. For the most part anyway. There’s always a few who need to work on the income side hard, first.

I’ll sit down and work through a budget with anybody who asks. Right now they might have to wait for an opening in various medical appointments or drive to the boonies at night, but the offer is always there. I’m not Bezos or Buffett but I’ve dug out of massive debt, and I’m a lot less busy than those two. LOL.

I promise I’ll give way better actionable advice over anybody whining about income inequality. Fake care vs real care.

Let me ask you this.

Do you teach your children if they do something wonderful and fantastic, and if they are lucky enough to be amply rewarded for it, that they should be generous with those who helped them make it possible?

Do you teach your children that their success will not be measured by how well they do, but how well the least of their employees does?

And the really fun one. Do you teach your children that their legacy will not be measured by how much wealth they accumulate, but by how much they give to help others make a success of themselves?

Do you teach your children to care about how others are fed, clothed and housed and educated?

 

[jsstevens]

Let me ask you this.

Do you teach your children if they do something wonderful and fantastic, and if they are lucky enough to be amply rewarded for it, that they should be generous with those who helped them make it possible?

Do you teach your children that their success will not be measured by how well they do, but how well the least of their employees does?

And the really fun one. Do you teach your children that their legacy will not be measured by how much wealth they accumulate, but by how much they give to help others make a success of themselves?

Do you teach your children to care about how others are fed, clothed and housed and educated?

yes to every one.

 

[jspilot]

It should also be considered that the "poor" have a quality of living status today which is vastly better, relatively speaking, to the past. I'd much rather be considered "poor" today than anytime in history.

Probably true but the poverty line in America for a single person is earning less than 12,000 dollars a year and we have something like 46.2 million Americans or 15% of the population who are not even making that much. Let’s rememebr too that statistics are flawed when the benfitting party gets to set the number and criteria for evaluation. This 15% number is what the US government is content with establishing as right or acceptable and if the number were, 13,000– 15,000 whatever they want, the number of people would be altered. Also, if you make but one dollar a year over the poverty line you don’t get included into the poverty number but that 1 dollar a year makes about a cup of coffee a year difference in your living quality. The real number of people living in poverty is probably much higher most economists believe because even the data collection is flawed( its based on the census and if you don’t have a street address you are likely not included in the census— lots of poor people don’t have a stable home address or none at all.) The number is already absurdly high when you consider that these numbers are established by the federal government using numbers they get to pick which for their own benefit tend to be probably skewed to make the number of people in poverty a stochmacable number! If you think about 12,000 a year that’s 1,000 a month and good luck paying for much with that— especially in parts of this country. The poverty rate in this country has not changed substantially since the 1960’s when Lyndon Johnson had his “War on Poverty” which lowered the rate from the upper 20’s% to the lower 20’s.

We need to be real here when we consider the quality of life for “poor” people. Again in the context of investing, this entire group of people benefits very little from the past many years of stock market gains. They are just trying to get by.

 

[PPC1052]

Do you teach your children that their success will not be measured by how well they do, but how well the least of their employees does?

That's not true, so no I don't.

 

[jspilot]

+1

Spend a week in Haiti and you’ll get some idea of what poverty really looks like.

Come on— that’s a cheap shot and you are better than that. The United States can’t rest on our policies by saying we are better than other countries that have next to no industry or upward mobility. Your stance does not help your arguement and realistically comes across as totally insensitive to the plight of those that really do struggle each day.

Those of you arguing that “poor people are just lazy and want it that way” look up and read about a trend in America called “working poor.” Some of those people are working multiple low paying jobs just to stay above water. Please don’t insult them and lump them into the same category as those who are trying to game the welfare system by having more kids. It’s unfair to them and really waters down your self righteous arguments that “I worked hard and look at me now.” You can’t say that out of one side of your mouth and then lump all poor people together.

An article that gives some info about how “working poor” are defined by the government—
https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/working-poor/2016/home.htm

 

[denverpilot]

Let me ask you this.

Do you teach your children if they do something wonderful and fantastic, and if they are lucky enough to be amply rewarded for it, that they should be generous with those who helped them make it possible?

Do you teach your children that their success will not be measured by how well they do, but how well the least of their employees does?

And the really fun one. Do you teach your children that their legacy will not be measured by how much wealth they accumulate, but by how much they give to help others make a success of themselves?

Do you teach your children to care about how others are fed, clothed and housed and educated?

Not sure the dogs will follow any of my advice, but hypothetically...

Yes. But some don’t and if they’re paying market rates for the work done, fine.

No. I’ve worked with too many people who’s personal lives and finances are a disaster and always will be. They’re not open to learning how to fix it, or take responsibility for the bad choices they make. They usually end up getting fired, because they don’t take responsibility for their work lives either. How well the employees do is really up to them. See market rate above.

No. See above. People make of themselves what they choose to. Some will step up and ask for mentors, go out and make or save the company money, or whatever and they get a share of whatever they produced or saved. If the kid is the leader of a company and paying as well or better than market, and making sure there’s a path to follow for every staff member to higher responsibilities and growth as part of the culture of that they built, they’re fine. Their legacy is up to them after that. Keep their pay for the family, give it away to charity when they die, light it on fire in the backyard (minus a mandatory tithe) ... that’s their call.

Yes for all items except education beyond public school. That’s none of their business unless they’re looking over a resume. See tithe. Not optional. If they’re hugely successful it’s likely their tithe would exceed the amount any donation should be without vetting the organization, so they probably need to create a Foundation and staff it with clear instructions about proper stewardship of the donations.

But none of the above addresses the concept mentioned. You can’t simultaneously tell kids to succeed while telling them to hate the successful, like success is a closed game and scarce because some magical rule limits the number of successful people.

Bob over there can be successful, and so can I. I have no interest in what Bob does with his personal income whatsoever. I’ve got stuff to do. If Bob needs someone to work on stuff I know about, maybe I’ll apply. His legacy is his business. If he likes money, it’s none of my business.

And... I suspect the dogs will always be lazy freeloaders.

 

[jspilot]

Not sure the dogs will follow any of my advice, but hypothetically...

Yes. But some don’t and if they’re paying market rates for the work done, fine.

No. I’ve worked with too many people who’s personal lives and finances are a disaster and always will be. They’re not open to learning how to fix it, or take responsibility for the bad choices they make. They usually end up getting fired, because they don’t take responsibility for their work lives either. How well the employees do is really up to them. See market rate above.

No. See above. People make of themselves what they choose to. Some will step up and ask for mentors, go out and make or save the company money, or whatever and they get a share of whatever they produced or saved. If the kid is the leader of a company and paying as well or better than market, and making sure there’s a path to follow for every staff member to higher responsibilities and growth as part of the culture of that they built, they’re fine. Their legacy is up to them after that. Keep their pay for the family, give it away to charity when they die, light it on fire in the backyard (minus a mandatory tithe) ... that’s their call.

Yes for all items except education beyond public school. That’s none of their business unless they’re looking over a resume. See tithe. Not optional. If they’re hugely successful it’s likely their tithe would exceed the amount any donation should be without vetting the organization, so they probably need to create a Foundation and staff it with clear instructions about proper stewardship of the donations.

But none of the above addresses the concept mentioned. You can’t simultaneously tell kids to succeed while telling them to hate the successful, like success is a closed game and scarce because some magical rule limits the number of successful people.

Bob over there can be successful, and so can I. I have no interest in what Bob does with his personal income whatsoever. I’ve got stuff to do. If Bob needs someone to work on stuff I know about, maybe I’ll apply. His legacy is his business. If he likes money, it’s none of my business.

And... I suspect the dogs will always be lazy freeloaders.

This makes sense to me but I take one exception. No one is being “taught” to hate the successful. The students who are in tough home situations and or are living in poverty already know the way the world works. They don’t need a teacher who tells them to hate anyone— what they need are teachers who teach them how to play and win “the game.”

The reality for some is they are jaded from their own experiences far beyond a place of “I can do it. I can win the game on my own” Some have had that beaten out of them before they ever even step foot into a classroom and the best you can do for that kid is teach him the facts about the way things are— otherwise you lose all credibility and you are shut out— and give them tools to succeed. Maybe I’m a different kind of teacher but I’m not in the business in my classroom of promoting class warfare but I am in the business of presenting information as accurately and truthfully as I can.