It's one thing to be an expert in the field with a team of other experts. It's another to be a legend in your own mind and to have alienated all other experts. Are most youtube comments garbage? Absolutely. But its not hard to sift through a couple comments and see there's a few comments that might be worth a pm. He has to realize the monumental task of what he's trying to accomplish, and doing it on his own, in a field that's completely foreign, using non-standard equipment.
Raptor Aircraft
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Omalley1537
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Sean
The expertise Peter is being given is from the internet masses. How do you identify the expert opinions in the chaff? How does he know that xXx_Bungholio_420's comments are actually from Kelly Johnson Jr?
currently, yes.
Earlier in the project, he had input from numerous established folks in the industry. He heeded some advice but his decisions on what to heed and what to discard appeared to be based far more on convenience and/or his own ego combined with getthereitis than any established method or plan.
schmookeeg
En-Route
Re-reading my comment, it appears I am defending Peter as a non-egomaniac; definitely not my intent. I'm just wondering if he's put ALL comments (criticism and constructive remarks alike) into a giant pile, and decided he isn't going to go looking for needles?
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Ari
That would be a defensible strategy. I don't know why he is taking a defensive tone in his videos vis-a-vis the YouTube comments. The signal-to-noise ratio in YouTube comments is normally just below drug addicts screaming on the bus. I would have to just ignore them all in order to retain sanity. Responding in any way seems like a dangerous, slippery slope.
455 Bravo Uniform
Final Approach
If you don’t know what you don’t know about engineering, aeronautics, etc, how would you ever be able to sift through what’s expert advice vs BS, on internet/online/YouTube comments? In person is different.
He does actually take suggestions from the comments occasionally. Sometimes they're very bad suggestions. More often he takes decent ideas and puts his own spin on them to make them worse.
He doesn't have a clue how to sift the good from the bad because he doesn't know what he doesn't know and apparently isn't willing to admit it and pay someone who does know. He has also told experts he has hired that he knows better than them, so paying for knowledge also doesn't work so well for him.
Most of the YT comments are absolute trash, both those praising him and those suggesting he do things differently. There are a few people who consistently offer sensible ideas. I can spot them and I'm no expert on any of this. Not to say he should just trust unknown randos simply because they sound like they know what they're talking about, but he could run those suggestions by someone he trusts to see if they're valid. But that goes back to his attitude of thinking he knows better than everyone.
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Rod Schneider
Filing Flight Plan
When Peter was at Cherokee County Airport (KCNI), I spent some time with him and got a pretty good look at the airplane. Even helped him install portions of the redrive after he made some changes to it. It became apparent very quickly that he did not like to take advice from folks who knew how to do things, both from his build team, and "outsiders". It only took a couple of months to decide that I needed to stay far away from the project. While it's true that a LOT of the internet suggestions are from folks that don't have a clue, there were a few, like RV6EJGuy, who have known, good credentials, that have gotten lumped in the "whiner" category by Peter. As long as he's in charge, I fear this will not end well........
Tarheelpilot
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I don’t think ignoring YouTube comments reflects poorly on him. Not even a tiny little bit.
I agree. Many of his followers are morons. Even the ones who aren't, he doesn't know how to tell the difference.
What does reflect poorly on him is soliciting advice from followers (he has done that a lot over the years) and engaging with them mostly to dismiss the good ideas, often with unwarranted arrogance. He seems to have mostly quit engaging with comments several videos ago, though.
AlphaPilotFlyer
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A lot of criticism. Personally, I’m glad there is still some out there trying new things. The market is too small for any big resourceful company to try, let alone the liability issues/risk that drives most away. That’s why GA is stuck in the 1950s other than some modern experimental designs.... designs that came from small start ups like this.
I am a former test pilot for transport category jets and had amazing resources available. it’s tough to do something like this on a shoe string budget. I wish them the best.
I am a former test pilot for transport category jets and had amazing resources available. it’s tough to do something like this on a shoe string budget. I wish them the best.
unsafervguy
En-Route
the point is, he is doing nothing new. canard, been done successfully many times, pressurized, been done, he never will. auto conversion, been done many times, some almost reliable. diesel, been done and certified. meet wild performance goals that defy the laws of physics and thermodynamics, never will. the point is, there is good data out there and even better people to help with it. he refuses to listen. he has no idea how to run a test program. alphapilot, would you run a test program trying to gather VX,VY, performance data and autopilot functions with a know unreliable pitot static system and tell the followers, yes i can it an experimental aircraft. he is a computer guy, he should at least understand garbage in, garbage out. he is in way the hell over his head and refuses to listen to people that will keep him alive. he has been flying it how long without being able to make full power due to cooling issues. I bet you would have put a stop on the testing until that issue was sorted out.
this would be fun to watch if there was no intent to market this thing, but there are people that have money down and it looks like he is just trying to get to the point of sending parts out the door. If he gets to that point, people are going to die.
we have seen this before, the name was jim bede. he had names around him like rutan, berven and holms and would not listen either. about 25 people have died in bd-5's.building a one off is one thing, but when you intend to market it, you had better have a real test program with real engineers behind it.
donjohnston
Pattern Altitude
Just to the left of your "Z" key and right of the "/" key are a pair of "Shift" keys. They make capital letters.
Tarheelpilot
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Crap. Take a breath bro.
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Mantis Toboggan, MD
I have worked on many test programs that got as far as he's gotten without being able to collect performance data. Heck, some of them with similar airworthiness certs *finished* without collecting performance data. That he's not yet been able to collect performance data to your satisfaction is irrelevant.
What other prototype test programs intended for EX/AB are you familiar with? I suspect that the reason so many people are up in arms over this one is because he's publicizing 'progress', whereas others, particularly before the 'look at me!' era of social media, have remained relatively quiet. He's a big, ripe target of opportunity and the result is a shotgun blast of comments. Sure, there's probably some good advice in there somewhere, just like I'm sure there has been sound investing advice somewhere on 4chan, but I don't recommend wasting time trying to decide what's real and what's not.
Nauga,
selective
unsafervguy
En-Route
I would suggest you look at the work of nat puffer on the cozy for a start.
I personally would stop testing until I at least have reliable air data, thats a basic requirement for any reliable data. getting a 200 ft altitude gain on take off role doesn't really give you any good data does it.
I have no idea why people think this thing will ever be successful. he has no plan, no test program, no engineering skills and dismisses those that do have those skills when they give sound advise.
455 Bravo Uniform
Final Approach
We are fortunate to be able to see inside a version of prototyping in almost real-time, perfect or imperfect. Not many other “channels” to see this stuff.
wanttaja
En-Route
Not really a good comparison. The BD-1 ended up type certified and put into production (albeit with some modifications), with about 1800 eventually produced. BD-2 never flew around the world, but it did fly almost 9,000 miles on a single tank of gas. The BD-4, I understand, is a pretty good airplane. Bede's original concept for the BD-5 had a V-tail, but Burt Rutan changed it to a conventional layout. Those who have flown BD-5s like them. Like many homebuilts, it was doomed by the availability of suitable engines. Knew a man with both a VW-powered and jet-powered BD-5. Great airplanes, he thought.
I am not a fan of Jim Bede, but primarily due to his business practices. The problems getting the BD-5 kits to paying customers, the issues related to the "supersonic" BD-10, and the "escrow account" that wasn't an escrow account on the BD-12/14.
Best description of Jim Bede I've heard is that he was about 95% of being a brilliant engineer. Most of his projects required someone like Rutan to step in and get things finished. I believe the BD-12 was the first with a fundamental design error that doomed the design (CG issues).
Again, not a fan of Bede, but engineering-wise, the Raptor operation is far below the kinds of things Bede demonstrated he could do. But at least Raptor customers can get their deposits back.
Ron Wanttaja
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I think we're discussing a few different things here..
(1) no one (reasonable) expects, or wants, him to trust the YouTube genpop for guidance and advice
(2) all of us, to some degree, appreciate the desire to create something new
(3) it's a great opportunity to watch something like this onfold in real time, no one is (or should be) debating that
(4) the frustration comes from seeing someone who is so obviously not an expert in this field portend to be one. Professional help (Wasabi, others) have either been shunned or left on their own volition. Many of the things he does do not pass the "sniff test" to any reasonable person.. I don't have to be a licensed medical doctor to know that chugging scalding hot oil is likely not a reasonable headache remedy
We shouldn't get caught up in some kind of "appeal to authority" or other fallacy just because someone has the time and the money to showcase their fantasy plane project on the web
**One thing that I'd be curious to hear, is it seems we have at least a couple people here who have a background testing and being involved with new aircraft design. Given what we all know about the project it would be curious to hear an objective assessment of how the Raptor is going. Given the tone by some here it would seem to suggest that Peter's own design evolution does not, actually, seem that far away from what an established professional might do. I have a hard time believe that Burt Rutan, Lance Neibauer, and the others go about aircraft design as aimlessly and haphazardly as PM does. But I could be wrong**
(1) no one (reasonable) expects, or wants, him to trust the YouTube genpop for guidance and advice
(2) all of us, to some degree, appreciate the desire to create something new
(3) it's a great opportunity to watch something like this onfold in real time, no one is (or should be) debating that
(4) the frustration comes from seeing someone who is so obviously not an expert in this field portend to be one. Professional help (Wasabi, others) have either been shunned or left on their own volition. Many of the things he does do not pass the "sniff test" to any reasonable person.. I don't have to be a licensed medical doctor to know that chugging scalding hot oil is likely not a reasonable headache remedy
We shouldn't get caught up in some kind of "appeal to authority" or other fallacy just because someone has the time and the money to showcase their fantasy plane project on the web
**One thing that I'd be curious to hear, is it seems we have at least a couple people here who have a background testing and being involved with new aircraft design. Given what we all know about the project it would be curious to hear an objective assessment of how the Raptor is going. Given the tone by some here it would seem to suggest that Peter's own design evolution does not, actually, seem that far away from what an established professional might do. I have a hard time believe that Burt Rutan, Lance Neibauer, and the others go about aircraft design as aimlessly and haphazardly as PM does. But I could be wrong**
Sierra_Hotel
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Solid summary.
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SoonerAviator
[quietly puts down scalding hot oil and grabs the ibuprofen]
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Ari
I think we are mostly akin to fans of a hockey team with a terrible goalie who keeps letting in easy goals. We read that they drafted some great new talent. We watch every game and cheer for our team. And when they lose yet another game, we don't know what to do about the stupid goalie so we just end up yelling at the screen.
Maybe there is someone actually capable of experiencing schadenfreude for an experimental airplane design, and there are definitely some people who are watching for the crash because they anticipate it happening any day now, but in general I think most people want the Raptor to succeed even with drastically reduced performance (lower ceiling, slower, higher fuel burn, higher kit cost, etc.) We just want to reach through the Internet and slap him upside the head for making what appear to be obvious mistakes that could easily be avoided.
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Mantis Toboggan, MD
No argument there. Do you believe that every kit produced started out with a sound design and a thorough and well thought out test plan? My experience indicates otherwise, even with some popular designs.
Personally I tend to prioritize basic envelope expansion and major troubleshooting before an air data cal, particularly if characteristics are repeatable even if inaccurate.
I have offered no opinion here on his likelihood of success. I'm focusing more on the peanut gallery and flight test guidance from those with no relevant experience.
Nauga,
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Mantis Toboggan, MD
For what may be the first time in our overlapping time on POA we are in full agreement. I suspect, however, that we direct this comment and our frustration at different people.
Yes, you could be.
Nauga,
and his longitudinal instability
AlphaPilotFlyer
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There seems to be a lot of people watching his project, many with expertise that may be helpful. I wonder if anyone has ever tried an open source design, such as many tech companies do with software development. I put an EFIS system in our C172 test bed for flight testing because it recorded a lot of data and it displayed on an IPAD which the camera could easily see. The unit was small and had pitot/static ports, GPS, and ADSB IN....yet cost about $800 total and did everything a Boeing jet could, but better. My rambling point is the box used open sourced software with off the shelf components as many other units do. These guys take development input and help from anyone using open source data such as raspberry, which is used in thousands of other open source devices. It enables them to quickly produce a cool product at a fraction of the cost and time compared to vertical development.
perhaps openly soliciting input from the aircraft community willing to help would be beneficial. . During development of a engine conversion for a c172 and 182, we had to figure out how big air intakes on cowl needed to be to keep it cool, and there were plenty of established formulas based on HP, delta pressures, ambient air pressure, total surface of coils, coolant the and pressure, etc..... so we designed the system based on such, trying to keep the coolant drag coefficients to a minimum while not needling cowl flaps. Well, it worked good in flight but on a prolong taxi on a hot with a tail wind, not so much. We changed the shape of the prop to increase flow closer to hub to flow into enlarged intakes, etc... but than realized an over cooling in flight and significant drag increase at cruise. I was contacted by a guy that made race cars inquiring about our engine kit. figuring they also need designs that are light and min drag, I mentioned our cooling dilemma. Within a 30 min conversation, problem solved. Point is, if I had this advice/input early on, would have saved us about 100 hours work.
id say, if you think you may really have some good advice for start ups like Raptor, drop em a line.
perhaps openly soliciting input from the aircraft community willing to help would be beneficial. . During development of a engine conversion for a c172 and 182, we had to figure out how big air intakes on cowl needed to be to keep it cool, and there were plenty of established formulas based on HP, delta pressures, ambient air pressure, total surface of coils, coolant the and pressure, etc..... so we designed the system based on such, trying to keep the coolant drag coefficients to a minimum while not needling cowl flaps. Well, it worked good in flight but on a prolong taxi on a hot with a tail wind, not so much. We changed the shape of the prop to increase flow closer to hub to flow into enlarged intakes, etc... but than realized an over cooling in flight and significant drag increase at cruise. I was contacted by a guy that made race cars inquiring about our engine kit. figuring they also need designs that are light and min drag, I mentioned our cooling dilemma. Within a 30 min conversation, problem solved. Point is, if I had this advice/input early on, would have saved us about 100 hours work.
id say, if you think you may really have some good advice for start ups like Raptor, drop em a line.
He won't listen.
3393RP
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This is an excellent example of issues that have never been quantified and solved by Muller. Basic design engineering has been ignored, and he's flying around with the inability to use full throttle and 250° F oil temperatures.
YKA
Pre-takeoff checklist
While I have not heard about the Raptor until today, and admit to only having read 4 pages of this very long thread...some people are very judgmental, of a guy who is at least trying. I've certainly not ever tried to design and build a new airplane. Anyone who hasn't done so themselves, probably cannot begin to fathom what the challenges are. Can't imagine how daunting this must be. I admire him even making an attempt, more guts than me.
The last part of the previous post sums it up for me. Hitting snags is expected. Ignoring them and flying with serious issues like this unaddressed is (crazy, stupid, silly, foolish) take your pick.
although I might argue that the lack of properly calibrated air speed is an even bigger issue.
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OneCharlieTango
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Tantalum
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you've never built a house either I assume and are not an architect, but you would have enough where with all to know that this is probably not the most logical design for a skylight:
this is something Peter would do and claim because no one else has done it he must be a genius. When it rains and the water comes in he would instead decide to waterproof the inside of the house (FlexSeal!) instead of fixing the skylight
donjohnston
Pattern Altitude
Now that's an excellent assessment.
YKA
Pre-takeoff checklist
Well well well, someone was drunk, and decided they needed a skylight.
Interestingly, while I do not actually put up the structures, be it a house or hotel, I do own a bunch of heavy equipment, and develop subdivisions to excavating a lot for a new home, haul products from crush to drain rock. So you are not too far off.
Tantalum
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At any rate, when the Raptor project first came out I was excited about it.. GA is stuck so heavily with 50s design and innovation is slow (low volume, costs, regulation, etc.). So when Raptor came along I was excited about it. And his initial build videos looked competently done, he had a team there, they were doing a proper methodic design. Over the last 2 years (?) it seems this just became a hodgepodge project for himself..
We're not all going to agree on his design choices, and there are a lot of armchair experts.. but it's gotten to the point where you can't go more than a few minutes (seconds?) into a video without scratching your head and just wondering "why??" You would thing there would at least be an occasional "wow that's really smart, I never thought of that but it makes sense when you think about it!"
YKA
Pre-takeoff checklist
You are a lot more knowledgeable on it than I am, so will take your word for it. Wasn't there a plane many years ago that was claiming to be the next new cutting edge design, then seemed to do nothing for years? It was called an Epitome, or Epic, or something close to that.
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Drake the Outlaw
wanttaja
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Nine of the type certified versions (Epic E1000) on the registry as of the beginning of this year. Three of them have Experimental R&D certificates, they're still owned by Epic. In addition, there are four Experimental Amateur-Built examples (Epic LT).
Ron Wanttaja
NHWannabe
Line Up and Wait
Well he was up flying this morning so I'm sure we'll have another video soon.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N352TD
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N352TD
Tantalum
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Yes!!
..just kidding, and I should certainly not be mistaken for one. I started watching the Raptor videos before I even joined PoA and followed his evolution fairly closely.. there's certainly been a "decline" in overall skill, professionalism, or whatever you want to call it.
A few people answered, but I believe you are referencing the Epic. It's officially FAA certified as of July 2020 and boasts some very impressive specs https://epicaircraft.com/
Epic hit a lot of roadblocks along the way, but it was a solid design from the beginning. Its problems were more on the business and financial side.
Almost everyone (including me) doubted they would ever make it to certified production and I was delighted to be wrong about that. They still may not survive long term because certified airplane production is a terrible business and another recession could wipe them out practically overnight, but I hope they make it.
It appears to be quite a nice aircraft even for the $3.25 million it costs. Obviously not for everyone, but for people in that market, it could very well give the Meridian a run for its money and even compete with the likes of the Phenom 100 and Citation Mustang.
As grueling as I'm sure it was to get the Epic to where it is, Raptor is over 5 years in and isn't yet even to the point where the Epic started.
Almost everyone (including me) doubted they would ever make it to certified production and I was delighted to be wrong about that. They still may not survive long term because certified airplane production is a terrible business and another recession could wipe them out practically overnight, but I hope they make it.
It appears to be quite a nice aircraft even for the $3.25 million it costs. Obviously not for everyone, but for people in that market, it could very well give the Meridian a run for its money and even compete with the likes of the Phenom 100 and Citation Mustang.
As grueling as I'm sure it was to get the Epic to where it is, Raptor is over 5 years in and isn't yet even to the point where the Epic started.
Looks like his whim today was to see how fast he could make it go...couple of near 160 spikes. Still flying fairly low. I already forgot what his last fix was.