I’m calling the peak

TCABM said:
That’s not a loss, that’s market adjustment. When it sells for $600k below what it was purchased for, that’s a loss.
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Sorry. Don't understand. Property was purchased on 2/18 for 2.6M and then sold on 11/9 for 2M???
 
Mahneuvers said:
I've mentioned on this thread I've been watching a couple real estate markets. For a long while I was seeing people flip houses in less than a year making a 20-30% profit. Now I'm seeing stuff like this. Dude lost 600K in 9 months. I know this sounds crass, but I'm looking for more of this to pounce.
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I'm not sure I'd want a house that was bought to be flipped. I would be very suspicious of flashy veneer covering shoddy work. (and not because I recently watched an old "Ask This Old House" episode with a segment on fixing a walkway because the mason did an extremely lousy job. Actually I doubt a real mason did that work.)
 
TCABM said:
That’s not a loss, that’s market adjustment. When it sells for $600k below what it was purchased for, that’s a loss.
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Price History:
02/18/2022 Sold $2,610,000 $460 Public Record
11/09/2022 Sold $2,020,000 $355 CanopyMLS
 
Mahneuvers said:
Sorry. Don't understand. Property was purchased on 2/18 for 2.6M and then sold on 11/9 for 2M???
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Guess that martini hid the sold from me. Does your mls record ovc/exchanges that are part of the deal in the price?

Even then I could see taking a $600K loss if it was offsetting gains somewhere else in an investment porrfolio.
 
kaiser said:
The winning formula is say... bought in 2018, add a partner in 2020 for 2018 cost, add a partner now for profit.. wait 5 years, buy both back out for pennies on the dollar.


... hmm I might be on to something...
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That is my plan, but not before a number of costly upgrades.
 
At least 5 of the listings I’m watching have dropped in the last month and several a few times. i also think this is the downward trend arriving.
 
My son graduated the spring of 2021 from a local business college with a MBA at 24 years old ...he was working as a salesman at a new car dealership (Jeep/Dodge/Ram). At graduation, I asked him if he was going to go looking for a new job. His response, "Why would I want a new job? I'm killing it! I'll make over $120k this year!" ( I did his taxes, and he did make over $120k in 2021). Last week, he told me he listed his new motorcycle for sale, to help make ends meet. Time to go job-looking kid!
 
There are two or three planes I keep looking at on TAP. They haven't changed price, but also haven't sold in almost a year. One has been taken off the market and re-listed two months later at the exact same price that didn't sell before. I feel like sellers may soon start to 'walk down the market' discounting to the price that could have sold a couple of months before, but never actually offering a realistic price. Particularly for the twins I am looking at, I can't imagine demand going up anytime soon, so maybe it is just a waiting game, that may last another year.
 
I’ve also noticed the number of Cirrus planes for sale rise considerably. If the affluent pilots are selling off their vanity birds what does that mean? Coincidence or trend?
 
robin ardoin said:
CAPS needing a repack with no chutes to be found. LOL
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Is that actually true though? BRS is still available for the retrofit market, not sure why a preferred OEM like Cirrus wouldn't have first dibs on the stock. It's the reason small fry retail customers of Lyco/Conti are sucking hind teet right now, OEMs and large volume customers go to the front of the line.

At any rate, if true, then this hobby is truly fogged. Orphaning current a manufacture type is jumping the shark 3 times over.
 
I actually had a car dealer agree that prices are coming down. I said, “guess I’ll wait a little longer to buy.”
I notice a lot fewer of the temporary tags driving around than I did last year.
 
hindsight2020 said:
Is that actually true though? BRS is still available for the retrofit market, not sure why a preferred OEM like Cirrus wouldn't have first dibs on the stock. It's the reason small fry retail customers of Lyco/Conti are sucking hind teet right now, OEMs and large volume customers go to the front of the line.

At any rate, if true, then this hobby is truly fogged. Orphaning current a manufacture type is jumping the shark 3 times over.
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Darn, and I was just about to go buy one.
 
Our club is showing hours flown to be back to pre pandemic surge. If that’s true all over then the pandemic surge in demand for buying should be dropping as well.

Now toss in the coming recession and significant loss of wealth in the stock markets and I think you’ll see some significant shift.
 
Morgan3820 said:
This will be my last truck, baring an accident. My current truck is 22 years old which I averaged about 4k miles/year. I could afford it but I don’t want a new truck. I feel that quality control post pandemic is not good.
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Definitely hold off on any used vehicle purchases. In March the Carmax blind offer price on my wife's Explorer was $15,000, now it's $11,600. Carmax has an Explorer like hers for sale and they want $20,000.
 
Normally my evening scroll through Trade-A-Plane is a favorite pastime, but now there are so few new listings that it's become dull. I feel like I've memorized half the pictures and bios behind these planes.
So if there aren't many new listings, and the total listings count is staying kind of the same... Not much is selling these days?

Just my observation, no hard data to back that up... yet...
 
$197,910 ave price for baron 11/1/2022
$185,057 ave price for baron 1/3/2023

$291,012 ave price for 340's 11/1/2022
$278,219 ave price for 340's 1/3/2023

between controller and TaP. this may or may not say anything about the market, but it clearly says I ain't buyin either anytime soon.
 
Would make sense sales have slowed. Maybe in a year there will be some price dropping
 
Someone here mentioned airplane price drops tend to lag economic downturns quite a bit - I'm in TAP, Barnstormers, Hangar67, etc., pretty much daily and things definitely have stagnated. Anecdotally I do see some some asking price reductions, but I'm not well enough informed to discern whether those were unrealistic asking prices to begin with or simply lack of interest by buyers.

Th recession seems "on" to me already - if it walks like a duck, talks like a duck, then it's probably not a harmonica. . .I set aside a budget, cash to buy a modest traveling airplane, but what I can afford versus my MEL is a tight fit. It may be better to keep watching the until later in the year.

There are a LOT of older airplanes with old panels, middlin' time engines, and quite high asking prices that stay posted for extended periods now.
 
kaiser said:
I work for a big bank. Recession or no, the '23 budgets have austerity written all over them. Our bonuses will probably suck too :(
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QFT, unfortunately
 
I hate self appointed experts who think they can predict the future. Kings and Queens of old listened to folks who claimed to be able to see the future, they were called soothsayers and were all frauds. These days potentates listen to people who claim to know the future, they're called Economists.

No one knows the future. Get over yourselves.
 
bflynn said:
Local tax appraisers aren't setting your tax values at fair market value, they are setting it so they can make the revenue they need to deliver.
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This depends on jurisdiction. In DC they determine fair market value and the owner appeals if he disagrees. I’ve appealed (and won) in Maryland Virginia and DC
 
steingar said:
....I hate self appointed experts...get over yourselves...
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Wow! I agree no one can predict market direction, but, isn't that a little harsh? Take me for example. I'm a Malkiel, subscriber. I'm watching several markets knowing I and no one else has any idea where they are headed. However, I like to to hear opinions. Maybe I dial back my investment a little bit. Maybe I increase it a little bit. Am I fooling myself?
 
steingar said:
people who claim to know the future, they're called Economists.
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Economist: "the only job where they pay you today to explain why the predictions you made yesterday will be wrong tomorrow"
There's some truth to that. Most economists these days get paid to make up stories and narratives and there's virtually no attention paid to their accuracy (ex-post), or lack thereof.

steingar said:
No one knows the future. Get over yourselves.
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What we're doing here is not trying to predict the future (well not all of us at least). It's more like trying to accurately observe the present in an opaque industry where sales data isn't public.
Comparing notes from what we see on different sites or on comparable assets isn't really trying to prognosticate about the market's future so much as understanding where it might be in the cycle today.
 
steingar said:
I hate self appointed experts who think they can predict the future. Kings and Queens of old listened to folks who claimed to be able to see the future, they were called soothsayers and were all frauds. These days potentates listen to people who claim to know the future, they're called Economists.

No one knows the future. Get over yourselves.
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Aren’t you selling your plane because you are predicting you won’t be able to afford it in the future??
 
Tom Wells said:
… What we're doing here is not trying to predict the future (well not all of us at least)....
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The thing with corp budgets, pay and spending guidelines, and staffing plans is that stuff is set for the year already. Ours (F100 firm) is much tighter for all that than the last two years, which were tighter than 2019.

And that’s due to a bunch of factors including COGS that we have pretty solid knowledge of and PTI forecasts we seem to hit within target range more often than not.

What my company’s guidelines in bonus and merit pay increases in 2023 tells me is a lot of big ticket items such as new car purchases and home improvements/remodels/pools and the like aren’t going to happen at the usual rate this year for our employees.

While we’re not the biggest gorilla in our neck of the woods, we’re big enough that a lot of other businesses are directly impacted when we tighten the belt.

While that doesn’t mean recession, it does tell me there’s going to be some pain this year just because a whole lot of people have incurred higher expenses over the last two years and they haven’t really adjusted their lifestyles and spending along the way. Transunion is forecasting a 20% increase in credit card delinquencies for numerous factors related specifically to that.

https://content.transunion.com/v/co...QK*MTY3MTAzMTc2Ni4xLjAuMTY3MTAzMTc2Ni4wLjAuMA..
 
Still waiting on truck prices to come down. I talked with a car dealer from two states over saying that with incentives, he could put me in a new truck for almost the price of a used one. I don't believe him but you never would have heard that a year ago. I told him that in six months the deal might even be better.
I am seeing more ads in Marketplace with high asking prices saying 'take over payments'. There will be pain, just a matter of who.
 
Looks like a pretty nice aeroplane. @steingar, what's your bottom dollar and when was the overhaul performed?
 
Randomskylane said:
This depends on jurisdiction. In DC they determine fair market value and the owner appeals if he disagrees. I’ve appealed (and won) in Maryland Virginia and DC
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Maryland's strategy is to have high property tax rates and below-market appraisals, making it difficult (but not impossible) to win appeals. Your bill will go up on every appraisal, but they can claim they "haven't raised property taxes in xx years". A few times, with falling markets, the appraisals and market values began to converge. . .
 
steingar said:
I
No one knows the future. Get over yourselves.
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Mine was more a practical observation on current state. Recession now, in the technical sense? I dunno. . .I seem to have heard the definition was changed recently : ) Heck, paint it pink and call it Mary, whatever - from my position on the strata it appears "on".
 
$197,910 ave price for baron 11/1/2022
$185,057 ave price for baron 1/3/2023
$169,502 ave price for baron 2/3/2023
$191,411 ave price for baron 3/4/2023


$291,012 ave price for 340s 11/1/2022
$278,219 ave price for 340s 1/3/2023
$267,906 ave price for 340s 2/3/2023
$253,613 ave price for 340s 3/4/2023
 
eman1200 said:
$197,910 ave price for baron 11/1/2022
$185,057 ave price for baron 1/3/2023
$169,502 ave price for baron 2/3/2023
$191,411 ave price for baron 3/4/2023


$291,012 ave price for 340s 11/1/2022
$278,219 ave price for 340s 1/3/2023
$267,906 ave price for 340s 2/3/2023
$253,613 ave price for 340s 3/4/2023
Click to expand...
What about for singles?
 
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