I’m calling the peak

Interest rates did a head fake at Christmas, dipping to 6%. In real estate, a bunch of people jumped in and chipped inventory down. Full price correction will only follow inventory build up. So how many planes are listed vs last spring?
 
$197,910 ave price for baron 11/1/2022
$185,057 ave price for baron 1/3/2023
$169,502 ave price for baron 2/3/2023
$191,411 ave price for baron 3/4/2023
$186,757 ave price for baron 4/3/2023

$291,012 ave price for 340s 11/1/2022
$278,219 ave price for 340s 1/3/2023
$267,906 ave price for 340s 2/3/2023
$253,613 ave price for 340s 3/4/2023
$261,594 ave price for 340s 4/3/2023
 
Is there a consensus on aircraft prices? I'm not close enough to the market to get a feel for it. I'm not in the market, I'm just curious.

Student starts were up about 10 percent last year, avgas consumption increased by a few percent, and there were a few more private and airline transport certificate holders at the end of 2022 than there were in 2021. More students + more hours flown would keep the price of airplanes from declining, I would think.
 
eman1200 said:
$197,910 ave price for baron 11/1/2022
$185,057 ave price for baron 1/3/2023
$169,502 ave price for baron 2/3/2023
$191,411 ave price for baron 3/4/2023
$186,757 ave price for baron 4/3/2023

$291,012 ave price for 340s 11/1/2022
$278,219 ave price for 340s 1/3/2023
$267,906 ave price for 340s 2/3/2023
$253,613 ave price for 340s 3/4/2023
$261,594 ave price for 340s 4/3/2023
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How many Barons and 340s were sold each month? In December there were none of each?
 
FormerHangie said:
Is there a consensus on aircraft prices? I'm not close enough to the market to get a feel for it. I'm not in the market, I'm just curious.
Click to expand...
If I were to summarize the consensus from the last 10 pages of threads it'd be something like: "airplane prices have likely peaked but it'll be a while before they start settling down". So far that consensus attitude has been about correct. Inventory is up over 2020/2021 levels but it's been the same for about the last 6-9 months from my casual (daily) TAP scrolling.

From some of the comments on this board it sounds like there are a number of people waiting to come out of the woodwork and make a purchase when prices drop, which is a good indicator that they probably won't drop very much :(
 
asicer said:
How many Barons and 340s were sold each month? In December there were none of each?
Click to expand...

no idea how many were sold, I'm just tracking average prices listed for baron's and 340's on TaP and Controller once a month except for december when I got lost and couldn't find my way home.
 
eman1200 said:
no idea how many were sold, I'm just tracking average prices listed for baron's and 340's on TaP and Controller once a month except for december when I got lost and couldn't find my way home.
Click to expand...

That reminds me of a song:

ktup-flyer said:
Still waiting for the market to collapse...
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As long as new airplane production remains as low as it is, and pilots continue to fly the number of hours they are flying, no collapse will happen.
 
eman1200 said:
$197,910 ave price for baron 11/1/2022
$185,057 ave price for baron 1/3/2023
$169,502 ave price for baron 2/3/2023
$191,411 ave price for baron 3/4/2023
$186,757 ave price for baron 4/3/2023

$291,012 ave price for 340s 11/1/2022
$278,219 ave price for 340s 1/3/2023
$267,906 ave price for 340s 2/3/2023
$253,613 ave price for 340s 3/4/2023
$261,594 ave price for 340s 4/3/2023
Click to expand...
In the case of Barons there are still "new" ones out in the wild so if one of those gets put on TAP it's going to skew the average significantly. Not saying that's what happened here though.
 
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WDD said:
Yeah. That. Inflation running as high as it is, prices many not rise as fast but not going back to 2019 prices.
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Prices started going up in 2017 when basicmed passed. They’ll never drop below the prices we saw before that
 
John Spartan said:
Mind blowing the costs of some of the 50+ year old planes.
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How many 50+ year old boats with high time engines original paint and interior and old electronics or 50+ old cars in the same condition have Mind blowing value/ cost as aircraft? Aircraft seem to be in their own lane and have their own rules of value, never say never to a huge price drop.
 
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brien23 said:
How many 50+ year old boats with high time engines original paint and interior and old electronics or 50+ old cars in the same condition have Mind blowing value/ cost as aircraft?
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There is a steady stream of new boats and cars being manufactured to replace older boats and cars. It is not cost effective to maintain a 30 year old car when there are plenty of 10-20 year old cars available at a reasonable cost. Can't say that about airplanes.

The GA market is kind of like the car market in Cuba.
 
Ed Haywood said:
There is a steady stream of new boats and cars being manufactured to replace older boats and cars. It is not cost effective to maintain a 30 year old car when there are plenty of 10-20 year old cars available at a reasonable cost. Can't say that about airplanes.

The GA market is kind of like the car market in Cuba.
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Perfectly stated.
 
Cuba doesn't give off the ham radio/model railroad/SCA/cosplay vibe, though.
 
Ed Haywood said:
There is a steady stream of new boats and cars being manufactured to replace older boats and cars. It is not cost effective to maintain a 30 year old car when there are plenty of 10-20 year old cars available at a reasonable cost. Can't say that about airplanes.

The GA market is kind of like the car market in Cuba.
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Yes, the LADA a Russian car AvtoVAZ were produced with technical assistance from Fiat and marketed under the Zhiguli designation. The Lada brand appeared in 1973, initially being overseas-focused. Cuba loves their Lada cars, like the Cessna 172 it's over 50 years old with very little change.
 
brien23 said:
Yes, the LADA a Russian car AvtoVAZ were produced with technical assistance from Fiat and marketed under the Zhiguli designation. The Lada brand appeared in 1973, initially being overseas-focused. Cuba loves their Lada cars, like the Cessna 172 it's over 50 years old with very little change.
Click to expand...

The Lada Niva will survive anything. They were everywhere when I lived in the former Soviet Republic of Georgia.
 
brien23 said:
How many 50+ year old boats with high time engines original paint and interior and old electronics or 50+ old cars in the same condition have Mind blowing value/ cost as aircraft? Aircraft seem to be in their own lane and have their own rules of value, never say never to a huge price drop.
Click to expand...
We can't compare average 50 year old cars. A new 172 in 1970 was 4x the average car price. For the price of a new 172 in 1970, we are in Ferrari or Porsche 911 category. A 1970 Ferrari or 911 that was maintained similarly to a 172 would be far more valuable than the airplane is today. Comparing the value to homes, a 172 in 1970 was half the price of the average home. Home appreciation has far exceeded airplane appreciation. The cost to have maintained that 172 for the past 50 years would substantially eclipse the current value. Many of the low value airplanes that were neglected and not maintained did not survive and were junked long ago.
 
One of the reasons I got back into flying and plane ownership 20 years ago was that buying and owning cars of the same age, quality and interest was a lot more expensive than a comparable plane. My first plane was $23K (a show winning polished Luscombe). The trend has only accelerated and sometimes it seems with cars that anything interesting and having lasting value is $100K.. and you can't do a lot with it after you buy it. Buying and owning planes as interesting toys remains a much better value.

The reason for this has to do with barriers to entry for plane ownership such as licensing, medical status and storage cost. That holds plane prices down by comparison, but for those for whom the barriers don't much apply the value is there.
 
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Tusayan said:
One of the reasons I got back into flying and plane ownership 20 years ago was that buying and owning cars of the same age, quality and interest was a lot more expensive than a comparable plane. That trend has only accelerated and sometimes it seems with cars that anything interesting and having lasting value is $100K.. and you can't do a lot with it after you buy it. Buying and owning planes as interesting toys remains a much better value.

The reason for this has to do with barriers to entry such as licensing, medical status and storage cost holding plane prices down in comparison, but that's another issue.
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Definitely an interesting perspective.
 
It’s not only that planes are expensive. Tie downs and hangars are expensive if you can get a spot.
 
Disagree with the idea that prices will stay high because of inflation. Inflation destroys purchasing power and therefore demand. To what extent - we'll learn as we go through this Fed induced speculative mania.

As for where the prices are going, this might shed some light:
https://www.hangar67.com/AircraftDailyPriceChanges
 
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Prices go up during inflation. Value of dollar is less. So a plane that cost $100 in 2018 could cost $200 in todays weaker and less valuable dollars.

Inflation means prices go up. No inflation doesn’t mean prices come down. It just means they don’t go up. The only way prices overall come down is deflation - which we last saw in the Great Depression.
 
WDD said:
Prices go up during inflation. Value of dollar is less. So a plane that cost $100 in 2018 could cost $200 in todays weaker and less valuable dollars.

Inflation means prices go up. No inflation doesn’t mean prices come down. It just means they don’t go up. The only way prices overall dime down is deflation - which we last saw in the Great Depression.
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Sure, but I saw 30-40% off deflation for houses after housing bubble #1 did burst. Things can go similar or worse route this time. Another indicator (at least for me) I have been approached few times already by sellers with hints and desire to negotiate.
 
Which is ridiculous because when inflation happens it means I have even less money for toys.
 
Toys, food, ………….
 
One thing I don't think folks are not paying enough interest to is the available inventory. The prices will usually lag behind that, especially on the way down. The trend has been going up for awhile now and last reported levels had inventory at 78 to 80 percent more than last year with more increases expected. If this goes like many other big ticket items that are purely discretionary there is likely to be a correction (lowering) of prices and soon I think.

I also think that like with other big ticket stuff there are folks who are late to the game and skew the picture. I have been shopping for awhile now but wasn't in any hurry until I passed my checkride. Now I'm more serious and am going to look this weekend (I hope) at a 1/5th ownership of a good first plane. Obviously a share is cheaper with the shared costs etc but overall this is going to cost much less than I originally planned because the market is adjusting back down. The most popular choices will obviously take longer to adjust and maybe never really do because, you know ... popular. But there are lots that are coming down or languishing "on the lot" so to speak. Now to be fair most of my observation and close attention is on the part of the plane market that would be suitable for a first time plane owner, but I believe this holds true and possibly more so for the more expensive and complex toys :D

Just my thoughts from shopping and tracking and experience of more than 1 recession/depression (08 was a depression I don't care what anyone says :p ). I think that not only have we peaked but the correction has started and some folks are going to get crunched when it happens just like when the housing bubble burst ...
 
What plane are you buying into?
 
ktup-flyer said:
I’ve noticed very little difference in straight leg 182 prices. They’re up, it anything
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You can say that again! 182 prices have defied gravity more than any other model I've seen.
There's been a couple postings where I thought "oh, ok, seems like maybe the 182 market will correct a bit" and then those feelings vanish when I see new posts like: these.
 

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lsaway said:
We can't compare average 50 year old cars. A new 172 in 1970 was 4x the average car price. For the price of a new 172 in 1970, we are in Ferrari or Porsche 911 category. A 1970 Ferrari or 911 that was maintained similarly to a 172 would be far more valuable than the airplane is today. Comparing the value to homes, a 172 in 1970 was half the price of the average home. Home appreciation has far exceeded airplane appreciation. The cost to have maintained that 172 for the past 50 years would substantially eclipse the current value. Many of the low value airplanes that were neglected and not maintained did not survive and were junked long ago.
Click to expand...

Acually, what a new Skyhawk costs would buy you three Porsche 911s.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
You can say that again! 182 prices have defied gravity more than any other model I've seen.
There's been a couple postings where I thought "oh, ok, seems like maybe the 182 market will correct a bit" and then those feelings vanish when I see new posts like: these.
Click to expand...
I’m not complaining lol
 
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