I’m calling the peak

I think one issue is, some people have been looking at the prices, and saying, heck for that much, I will sell my plane. So a lot more on the market, but at crazy prices.

There is a Mooney 201 for sale, asking 214. Original paint an interior, original 6 pack, without HSI. 530 and some flavor of GTX, but otherwise the stock King package. VREF puts it at 156.
 
TCABM said:
FIFY
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Yep - some sellers think that a buyer should pay for every dollar a seller put into something, vs simple supply and demand. "Hey, I paid a lot of money to paint this RV 12 pink" (Yes, I saw an RV 12 for sale that was painted pink).
 
WDD said:
Yep - some sellers think that a buyer should pay for every dollar a seller put into something, vs simple supply and demand. "Hey, I paid a lot of money to paint this RV 12 pink" (Yes, I saw an RV 12 for sale that was painted pink).
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that pink RV12 has been up for a very long time and seen several price reductions. We’ll done I think but sure limits your pool of buyers!
 
Pinecone said:
We had a Laser 28. 28 foot keel boat that had a planing hull. We have clocked 18.5 knots. Over that, the speedo transducer was out of the water. :D
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We also had a Laser 28 and had the same experience-kinda like the little Laser on steroids. Back on topic, I'd say the peak call is correct.
 
I don't believe in calling tops and bottoms. However, the financial shows this week seem more pessimistic than usual. Could just be mirroring a 5% stock market drop in 3 days. Lot's of worst case predictions considering the Fed and the rest of the administration appear to be on opposing sides of the inflation fight.
 
172andyou said:
I mean, to be fair, it does have a $200K panel...
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Eh - fair is what the market will bear. IMHO, I don't think someone will value it that high - even with that nice panel. But, wish the seller best of luck.
 
bflynn said:
Yeah, I saw a PA-28-161 at 149k. But it was for sale, not sold. That’s a “but honey, I listed the plane for sale” price.
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Unless it bought out the whole damn Garmin factory, paint shop, factory new engine, and gold plated trim inside.
 
Mahneuvers said:
When I saw this, I thought two things: (1) Mary Kay should buy it and give it away instead of a pink Cadillac. (2) How is @eman1200 ever going to sell his vomit green Mooney??
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3) Color blind people should not pick colors

4) Pepto Bismol should sponsor it
 
Pinecone said:
I think one issue is, some people have been looking at the prices, and saying, heck for that much, I will sell my plane. So a lot more on the market, but at crazy prices.

There is a Mooney 201 for sale, asking 214. Original paint an interior, original 6 pack, without HSI. 530 and some flavor of GTX, but otherwise the stock King package. VREF puts it at 156.
Click to expand...

That’s a 94 IIRC, there’s a 82 on barnstormers that’s original with only 1250 hours and obviously the current prices made it worth it to revive it…$150,000.
 
farmrjohn said:
We also had a Laser 28 and had the same experience-kinda like the little Laser on steroids. Back on topic, I'd say the peak call is correct.
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Where was yours located? We were on the Chesapeake Bay.

We figured out, the perfect helms person was a little Laser sail. The best main trimmer was a Star boat sailor.
 
Todd82 said:
Oh wow that's still on the market? I guess the paint scares off buyers.
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I'd buy it if my daughter was older. She absolutely loves the paint scheme. The seats needs to be done up in white or similar to match as that grey/blue doesn't do the paint justice.
 
I do want an RV-12, but... not that one.
 
Pinecone said:
Where was yours located? We were on the Chesapeake Bay.

We figured out, the perfect helms person was a little Laser sail. The best main trimmer was a Star boat sailor.
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Cleveland then San Francisco Bay. We trailered to Annapolis one year for a Laser 28 regatta and got some interesting comments towing with a Chevy Astro van over the PA. turnpike. Boat's name was Takeoff, now renamed Sonata I believe.

Again back on topic, the current peak most likely has passed, or at least plateaued.
 
What year did you trailer to Annapolis?

We were very active in the local fleet, until the went away from using class sails when racing one design. We just did not want to get into the money pit of sails.

One year, for the East Coast Championship, we had a couple trailer theirs from CO. There were on the bay 4 - 6 weeks.

Ours was called Kim Chee when we had it. It was sold back to Montreal.
 
@Motor6 your question way back there on pg 6 made me smile.

Before kids, aviation was no benefit to my wife in anything I could rent. If we couldn't beat the door to door time (and price) on United, she wasn't interested (we don't have a lake house etc.).

Since kids - she won't fly because of the risk. Now we have 3 kids so they don't fit in a 172/182 anyway.

@Mahneuvers we have a 25 foot Sundancer type speed boat (Ebbtide 2500 Mystique). Used it like crazy before kids. Dropped off with little kids (they hated those life jackets). The boat has sat the past 3 seasons due to travel sports.

We should have sold it sometime the past two years but my wife loves it. Sentimental value. It's the wrong boat for our family with the cabin taking up 60% of the space very challenging to pull a skier and impossible to teach a skier. Tube is fun (but cumbersome).

I've got a 15 year old son who's been on boats his whole life who can't ski.

***I think the majority of spouses view flying as "for the other person." That's why many quit. Significant time and money only going to 1 partner. IME /observation - very few spouses come along. Even in the flying club I'm looking at - mostly other flying club dudes going with each other. The families aren't much interested.

With young kids in activities and 70+ hrs a week for work - not many spots for a real GA trip.
 
Weekend sports for my now 16 year old is why I’ve decided to take a pause from GA for a few more years. Not enough spare time to stay current and enjoy a plane with so many nice weather weekends taken for what would be the fixed costs of a plane

We did get a pontoon the summer of ‘20 and have all taken to it. Boats care isn’t cheap, but compared to a plane a modern pontoon boat with no gel coat to care for and a modern 4 stroke 4cyl engine really isn’t bad. I feel less bad for the weekends the boat sits vs a plane. Plus staying current isn’t really a thing.

To keep on topic, I’m saving up my plane funds for when my son goes away to school. Which hopefully aligns with a not a top market.
 
Whether it's due to rates, uncertainty about equities, consumer sentiment, or just people resigning themselves to a lifetime of renting -- home prices appear to have inflected broadly.
... Might not have to wait that much longer until prices on expensive assets like aircraft follow... This coincides with Trade-A-Plane now hovering around and occasionally breaking 2100 listings for single engines.


y6L6CnNy9RJYpJLLnn1rRL5YCZ8xVklQhC7veZtm9WbzMvv1vFHT_6WEWNL0MUNZoN8b-IgltHczvQpFgl1wbKsyq5V1KTO06Su_Jl-WmV4IAdlDQfl3ZRO_pV-ngiidSJm9-61nZUoQbPFfFiqgb6ToezqRXzjvzN1suvwM4h1e2BRF2HGvkyx0xZvC0NdYPBeD04G_GeCkV6F-FdKcF_zRGOZ27sJzzofBJP_HOvaheptJ3SgnbTuk_OorUImjdq4RnkoKANtE8TCl4etIl9NGGPvVsBqidZxrVAzaIwwdvHtCcV7APXDpMzdWuE1_vmpJEahK9kWl4ILWIPD-ZrvDpVkB4aKHwYNRUxBlBrXNoSNjTfna0q8KhaQfBPz5MSDu8ah324IPgWAHgwzkLlKnRIBOb38FicMA3HBd9POsKz2vbxZR8AQqUJdTxphIDiAOipQ8nZnJDoZDyLeKDMvxWc6BNYhuR_F2jKT105A6wFLd0ovyzo0uPamj-eiCD7ngTVaTCd-nBs9FgCk4pPkir-8kzKIKCsNp7gahJEVwZoO0L8lZWv4VfVT0IcbMke4ajWoxUpZPsrsTBBjxfnFzO1cw8ppXL_gBCnArsP3WtUUUmWW2M4s58rx5YGnWXwohgCA3eMCnJ2zwt24iQYQVD1wsghgjKRFemlGlFhHWZTqlVogpbCqubVK05o4t_SvBZBEcdRB4roZxS_UWojMe0W6w-FBaecFjmU7bvfVhMa6V1iqggee9tw5NMPo=w984-h556-no




Having more than one data source for this stuff is always nice. So here's Zillow's price-cut listings by MSA. The price cuts are substantially outpacing the seasonal increases you normally observe.
The plunging homebuilder sentiment into contractionary levels is also probably not a good omen, though it would partially help corroborate the view that the market is in decline.

My hope is that this price decline also transfers into the REALLY FAST airplanes market :cool:

upload_2022-9-4_15-20-39.png
 
Terry M - 3CK (Chicago) said:
@Motor6 your question way back there on pg 6 made me smile.

Before kids, aviation was no benefit to my wife in anything I could rent. If we couldn't beat the door to door time (and price) on United, she wasn't interested (we don't have a lake house etc.)
Click to expand...

I like to think I am helping my wife see the benefit. I love flying, but I have never pushed her. She has been reluctant in the past, but is really coming around. I have a son at a university 3, 5, or sometimes more (with traffic) hours away by car, or a 1 hour flight. That has been motivation for her to join me on more than one occasion to have lunch with him on a day trip. She loves the beach and good food. So I try to present destinations that appeal to her interests. We flew to Ocracoke Island, walked to the beach, walked to dinner, and what would have been a seven hour drive was a 2 hour flight. She kept commenting on what an amazing day it was. I have tried to make the destination all about her because I don’t care where I go if I get to fly. Owning a plane has really opened up some last minute trips.

Terry M - 3CK (Chicago) said:
@Motor6Since kids - she won't fly because of the risk.
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We gave up motorcycles when we had kids, for the same reason. I only have one child still at home, and if we both go we bring her along.

Terry M - 3CK (Chicago) said:
@Motor6Now we have 3 kids so they don't fit in a 172/182 anyway.
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Cherokee Six, Lance, Saratoga. A fella landed after me in Ocracoke with his wife and 4 girls in a Lance. Travel sports are definitely a time suck. If a boat works better at this point in your life, those are a lot of fun too. It’s all about the time with the family.
 
Morgan3820 said:
In similar news, truck prices are slowly coming down. Days on the lot exceeds 90 days for many trucks on car gurus. Most All of them have been discounted from the original price. Some by over $4K. I am guessing that that is their first bottom line. I’m waiting for the third bottom line. In other words “I’m not gonna take any more loss on this, I’ll drive it myself”.
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12% price reduction off dealer price and $10K below MSRP being offered as of yesterday. Still higher than a giraffe’s butt for same trim in 2019, but good signs supply/demand is shifting.
d4091a14c8513a52c92869570c20f7e1.jpg
 
TomF said:
that pink RV12 has been up for a very long time and seen several price reductions. We’ll done I think but sure limits your pool of buyers!
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Call it "salmon" and not pink. That'll attract more buyers. It's all about the marketing ... ;)
 
Looks like even super-prime borrowers with 20% down are seeing mortgage rates at 7% or higher for traditional 30y fixed. I can't imagine aircraft lending rates are any more enticing than that.
There must be a number of people who are starting to feel the squeeze by now... Still patiently lying in wait for those overleveraged owners to cut prices and bail :)

upload_2022-9-27_14-44-13.png
 
Terry M - 3CK (Chicago) said:
@Motor6 your question way back there on pg 6 made me smile.

Before kids, aviation was no benefit to my wife in anything I could rent. If we couldn't beat the door to door time (and price) on United, she wasn't interested (we don't have a lake house etc.).

Since kids - she won't fly because of the risk. Now we have 3 kids so they don't fit in a 172/182 anyway.

@Mahneuvers we have a 25 foot Sundancer type speed boat (Ebbtide 2500 Mystique). Used it like crazy before kids. Dropped off with little kids (they hated those life jackets). The boat has sat the past 3 seasons due to travel sports.

We should have sold it sometime the past two years but my wife loves it. Sentimental value. It's the wrong boat for our family with the cabin taking up 60% of the space very challenging to pull a skier and impossible to teach a skier. Tube is fun (but cumbersome).

I've got a 15 year old son who's been on boats his whole life who can't ski.

***I think the majority of spouses view flying as "for the other person." That's why many quit. Significant time and money only going to 1 partner. IME /observation - very few spouses come along. Even in the flying club I'm looking at - mostly other flying club dudes going with each other. The families aren't much interested.

With young kids in activities and 70+ hrs a week for work - not many spots for a real GA trip.
Click to expand...

I have two daughters who have grown up with boats. They're pretty good wakeboarders but neither ever learned to ski. The older one took to wakesurfing like she'd been born on one. With teens it's either wakeboarding, wakesurfing, or they want a PWC, I almost never see anyone ski any more.
 
Tom Wells said:
There must be a number of people who are starting to feel the squeeze by now... Still patiently lying in wait for those overleveraged owners to cut prices and bail
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Historically, it takes 1 to 2 years for that process to play out. People try to ride it out, and it takes a while for reality to catch up with them.

See below for Case Shiller index of the last bubble. Note prices plateaued for a full year from 2006 to 2007 before the sharp downturn began, which lasted almost 2 years before bottoming out in 2009.

case shiller.PNG
 
So what are the latest thoughts on pricing? I’m paying attention to boats more than planes these days and there’s lots of chatter in that world about plummeting prices and there are some cracks starting to form in terms of obviously better deals (but those could be purely seasonal as people put their boats away for the season). Aircraft are far less seasonal in my opinion, but it seems that prices should really be taking a beating with gas prices and interest rates where they are.
 
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