GPS System Failure Imminent

Jay Honeck

Jay Honeck

Touchdown! Greaser!
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Jay Honeck
I spent a fascinating few hours with an avionics engineer yesterday. He showed me an FAA-generated map of the US where GPS approaches are no longer authorized, because our GPS constellation of satellites has become unreliable.

Specifically, the satellites were designed to last ten years. Many are now 30 years old, their orbits have become wobbily and their electronics buggy. Even though the FAA is talking about NextGen being entirely GPS dependent, there is no current plan to replace these aging satellites.

The short term solution is for avionics manufacturers to make their instruments use the Russian version of GPS, which is newer, more reliable, and accurate to 1.5 meters. This, of course, leaves us totally dependent on a foreign country for our instrument approaches -- a bad idea, IMHO.

Anyone else heard about this?
 
A few things to consider...

I don't know where to look for an extended launch schedule, but the next GPS satellite is due to launch on 5/15/13, and there are several satellites (6?) parked aloft as backups. The constellation of satellites appears to be in pretty good shape. The USAF would be out of business without it, and they ain't gonna let that happen.

If you boil it down, a GPS satellite is basically a clock, a transmitter, some solar cells, and the capability of maintaining orbital position. Relatively speaking, not a lot to break.
 
Jay Honeck said:
I spent a fascinating few hours with an avionics engineer yesterday. He showed me an FAA-generated map of the US where GPS approaches are no longer authorized, because our GPS constellation of satellites has become unreliable.
Click to expand...

Not sure about that avionics engineer. The GPS constallation is constantly in motion, so no particular area has any better or worse coverage than anywhere else.

Now if he's referring to WAAS, it is true that there are geographic limitations, but that is due to the inherent limitations of the WAAS system, which relies on geosynchronous satellites. While the US is actively replacing GPS satellites, there is nothing wrong with utilizing other system such as Russia's GLONASS.
 
Brad Z said:
Not sure about that avionics engineer. The GPS constallation is constantly in motion, so no particular area has any better or worse coverage than anywhere else.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Was this somebody particularly familiar with the GPS system, or just avionics in general? Not sure about the wobbly orbits comment.....
 
Jay Honeck said:
I spent a fascinating few hours with an avionics engineer yesterday. He showed me an FAA-generated map of the US where GPS approaches are no longer authorized, because our GPS constellation of satellites has become unreliable.

Specifically, the satellites were designed to last ten years. Many are now 30 years old, their orbits have become wobbily and their electronics buggy. Even though the FAA is talking about NextGen being entirely GPS dependent, there is no current plan to replace these aging satellites.

The short term solution is for avionics manufacturers to make their instruments use the Russian version of GPS, which is newer, more reliable, and accurate to 1.5 meters. This, of course, leaves us totally dependent on a foreign country for our instrument approaches -- a bad idea, IMHO.

Anyone else heard about this?
Click to expand...
Is this the same engineer that you had talked about GPS being down to 8 satellites in this old thread and also showed you a map of outages?

Sort of the same story in this thread you started from three years ago
http://www.pilotsofamerica.com/forum/showthread.php?t=36211&

If this is the same guy, I don't think he really knows his stuff at all.
 
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ScottM said:
Is this the same engineer that you had talked about GPS being down to 8 satellites in this old thread and also showed you a map of outages?

Sort of the same story in this thread you started from three years ago
http://www.pilotsofamerica.com/forum/showthread.php?t=36211&

If this is the same guy, I don't think he really knows his stuff at all.
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Probably is. We meet a LOT of people, and I know I've met this guy before.

It scares me that you remember that thread, and I don't.
:D

Either way, he holds multiple patents in the avionics world. You should hear what he has to say about ADS-B.
 
Don't you think "GPS is becoming unreliable and there are no plans to upgrade" just sounds pretty unlikely on the face of it? Forget the FAA. The US military is highly reliant on GPS. Do you really think it's not a high priority for them to ensure a stable and reliable GPS going into the future? They're sure not going to rely on GLONASS.

File this one in the category of "not a big worry".

As for your quotes:

"Many of the satellites are 30 years old."
Wrong. None of the satellites are older than 23 years. The current generation is three years old. (The current generation, btw, is the sixth. GPS has been continually upgraded over its lifetime.)

"There is no current plan to replace these aging satellites."
Wrong. There are 7 satellites in the current generation pending launch, and the first launch of the next generation is planned for next year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Positioning_System
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPS_Block_IIIA
 
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GNSS(Global Navigation Satellite Systems) GPS is the USA system, GLONASS is the Russian system and Galileo is the European system. It seems that if we can have receivers on tractors that will read all three systems we should have it on aircraft.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Either way, he holds multiple patents in the avionics world. You should hear what he has to say about ADS-B.
Click to expand...
If his knowledge of GPS is reflective of his knowledge on ADS-B, I am not interested in what he has to say.
 
Jim_R said:
Don't you think "GPS is becoming unreliable and there are no plans to upgrade" just sounds pretty unlikely on the face of it? Forget the FAA. The US military is highly reliant on GPS. Do you really think it's not a high priority for them to ensure a stable and reliable GPS going into the future? They're sure not going to rely on GLONASS.

File this one in the category of "not a big worry".

As for your quotes:

"Many of the satellites are 30 years old."
Wrong. None of the satellites are older than 23 years. The current generation is three years old. (The current generation, btw, is the sixth. GPS has been continually upgraded over its lifetime.)

"There is no current plan to replace these aging satellites."
Wrong. There are 7 satellites in the current generation pending launch, and the first launch of the next generation is planned for next year.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Positioning_System
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPS_Block_IIIA
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It is not just the military that is super dependent upon GPS. Our agricultural businesses and telecommunication systems are highly dependent on it too. Without it our very country would be in a world of hurt.

BTW The Chinese are also in the process of launching a GPS system. So there will be many.
 
Based on the evidence so far, I'd be equally as interested in what he thinks of Preparation-H.

Jay Honeck said:
Probably is. We meet a LOT of people, and I know I've met this guy before.

It scares me that you remember that thread, and I don't.
:D

Either way, he holds multiple patents in the avionics world. You should hear what he has to say about ADS-B.
Click to expand...
 
Jay Honeck said:
I spent a fascinating few hours with an avionics engineer yesterday. He showed me an FAA-generated map of the US where GPS approaches are no longer authorized, because our GPS constellation of satellites has become unreliable.

Specifically, the satellites were designed to last ten years. Many are now 30 years old, their orbits have become wobbily and their electronics buggy. Even though the FAA is talking about NextGen being entirely GPS dependent, there is no current plan to replace these aging satellites.

The short term solution is for avionics manufacturers to make their instruments use the Russian version of GPS, which is newer, more reliable, and accurate to 1.5 meters. This, of course, leaves us totally dependent on a foreign country for our instrument approaches -- a bad idea, IMHO.

Anyone else heard about this?
Click to expand...

As you said the GPS satellite lasted 30 years but the longest Glonass satellite lasted 7 years. That gives you an idea which one is more reliable. Not surprising when the Russian jet engines used to last 500hrs (steel blades) before disposal (no overhaul) vs. 3,000 (titanium blades) hrs for American jet engines of same vintage.

José
 
Piloto said:
As you said the GPS satellite lasted 30 years but the longest Glonass satellite lasted 7 years. That gives you an idea which one is more reliable. Not surprising when the Russian jet engines used to last 500hrs (steel blades) before disposal (no overhaul) vs. 3,000 (titanium blades) hrs for American jet engines of same vintage.
Click to expand...

We have a wrecked Mig (21?) in our hangar. It's amazing the Cold War lasted as long as it did. What a piece of crap.
 
Jay Honeck said:
...This, of course, leaves us totally dependent on a foreign country for our instrument approaches -- a bad idea, IMHO.
Click to expand...
yet (American) people express disbelief that Europeans would pour so much $$$ into galileo when they could keep using gps for free :rolleyes:
 
LDJones said:
We have a wrecked Mig (21?) in our hangar. It's amazing the Cold War lasted as long as it did. What a piece of crap.
Click to expand...

And the Chinese stuff is every bit as bad and that why we have export technology restrictions on metallurgy and also why certain skills are NOFOR.
 
Didn't they have an issue a year or two ago when the backup WAAS transmitter that is hosted on a commercial comms satelite died ? Iirc, they launched a new one with the next commercial vehicle that was able to support their box.
 
JHW said:
yet (American) people express disbelief that Europeans would pour so much $$$ into galileo when they could keep using gps for free :rolleyes:
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Galileo is a jobs program. Same as A-400 really, and many other such programs over there. Plus, Galileo is supposed to be monetized.
 
BTW, I only follow the space segments, but in my opinion Russia is having more trouble maintaing a healthy constellation than U.S. They are going to restore the full coverage when the bird that launched last week is placed into active, but this is very tight. The fact that they have to press it into service means that their "on-orbit spares" are just dead.

This does not suggest complacency, mind. GPS faces cost issues, as far as I know. Switching from Delta II to EELV is going to cost for sure (from $60 million to about $180+ million). Also, I recall how IIF was not in plans a few years ago, and now it's the mainstay. This tells my common sense that Block III is delayed and probably faced development trouble or budget issues. I don't want sound like your idiot acquiantance, and talk out of my butt, but not everything is rozy in GPS, so much is obvious to me. It's just much better than GLONASS.
 
tmyers said:
It's the Tequila!!!!
Click to expand...

:D

I wish I was able to find the maps he linked to and showed me. There were wide areas if the US where GPS data was so degraded that the FAA didn't recommend doing GPS approaches.

Sadly, I have been unable to find them. Anyone got a link?
 
Jay Honeck said:
There were wide areas if the US where GPS data was so degraded that the FAA didn't recommend doing GPS approaches.

Sadly, I have been unable to find them. Anyone got a link?
Click to expand...
I would think if there were really large areas that GPS was unreliable to the point that the FAA recommended against doing GPS approaches, there would be some official anouncement such as a NOTAM of the issue.
 
tonycondon said:
were they drawn in crayon?
Click to expand...

Funny. No, they were maps on a government website that he showed me on his iPhone.

This guy may be crazy but he's not stupid. He holds several patents that have apparently provided a comfortable living, and has developed all sorts of cool avionics.

One that I found especially intriguing is an ADS-B-type display that gives him realtime traffic information without the use of ground stations. It works by interrogating transponders, does not require ground stations, and is thus completely self contained.
 
Other super annoying feature of GLONASS is that apparently you cannot downlink the catalog from the satellites. You have to go to the Internet and fetch it from a website. On the one hand, receivers take less time to establish a solution since they do not waste time trying to downlink the catalog. On the other hand, since their birds have poor lifetimes, the catalog that factory burns into the device becomes obsolete very quickly. Therefore, the factory support becomes critical. I can turn on a 10-year-old eTrex and it still works like new. Better, even: the battery life is astonishing and it uses AA batteries. Can't have that with GLONASS.
 
ScottM said:
It is not just the military that is super dependent upon GPS. Our agricultural businesses and telecommunication systems are highly dependent on it too. Without it our very country would be in a world of hurt.
Click to expand...

The financial system, too: banking, stock trading (especially the high-frequency computer drive stuff) and so forth. Hedge funds and Wall Street types would be in a world of hurt without GPS.

If I'm not mistaken, Bitcoin may also rely on it for some things.

JHW said:
yet (American) people express disbelief that Europeans would pour so much $$$ into galileo when they could keep using gps for free :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

The bottom-line issue is the ability of the US to degrade the accuracy, and the (in)ability for other governments to access the P-code and M-code signals. Europe has less to worry about than Russia or China, but there's still a concern.
 
Last time I heard someone spewing nonsense like this it was John Tarver. He hadn't a clue how the system works either for the military or the segment available for civilian use or how WAAS functioned, but that didn't stop him from spewing disinformation in light of concrete evidence to the contrary continually on the old rec.aviation groups. The "frequency" issue sounds particluarly like the kind of drivel he used to espouse.

I have no idea what MAP he has. GPS penetration is fine and even WAAS is good from Alaska down into Mexico. The availability accross the lower 48 is pretty darn good.

I'd like to see this alleged information. If GPS was not surving approaches you can be darned sure we'd see a lot of FDC NOTAMs over the affected area. In fact the FAA is going the opposite way. They're decommissioning ground based navaids still.

Pretty good FAA synopsis as to what's going on is here:
http://www.faa.gov/about/office_org...techops/navservices/gnss/gps/policy/index.cfm

The terminology in the alleged statements also leads me to doubt any real understanding. All satellites "wobble" in their flight paths, even geostationary ones (they appear to make figure 8's typically). All that can be characterized in the emphemeris information. It's not so important that the satellite follow a rigid path but that we can describe the path the satellites are taking. As pointed out earlier, the GPS's are geosynchronous but not geostationary. They're always shifting with respect to the earth. The ones that are the best for position geometry are typically NOT the ones directly overhead, but the ones high enough above the horizon to be seen but at a low angle.
 
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Fearless Tower said:
Highly reliant on GPS is the understatement of the year.

We are absolutely dependent on GPS to do anything.
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A long way from the days of the first Gulf war.

I remember reading an account of how A10 Warthogs were being ferried over. They didn't have any GPS capability for the over water flight but had informally adopted use of a single civilian GPS unit to guide each group over.

I was racing gliders at the time and we had been using purpose built, GPS-based glide computers for 2 years at that point. (An oversight is sailplane racing rules prohibited ground based navigation aids but inadvertently allowed GPS when it became available.)

The slow adoption may have had to do with the A10's role or perhaps an Army versus Air Force issue, don't know...
 
Jim_R said:
...The ECONOMY and SOCIETY IN GENERAL are highly reliant on GPS...
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FTFY. Many things you would never imagine depend on GPS receivers, in many cases to keep accurate time even if position is unimportant. Things like railroad signals, electrical substation equipment, oil pipeline pump stations. Flying our airplanes is the last thing to be concerned about in case of total loss of gps.
 
Bill Watson said:
A long way from the days of the first Gulf war.

I remember reading an account of how A10 Warthogs were being ferried over. They didn't have any GPS capability for the over water flight but had informally adopted use of a single civilian GPS unit to guide each group over.

I was racing gliders at the time and we had been using purpose built, GPS-based glide computers for 2 years at that point. (An oversight is sailplane racing rules prohibited ground based navigation aids but inadvertently allowed GPS when it became available.)

The slow adoption may have had to do with the A10's role or perhaps an Army versus Air Force issue, don't know...
Click to expand...

Definitely. Today, I am literally not allowed to get the ship underway and leave the pier unless my GPS is fully operational.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Funny. No, they were maps on a government website that he showed me on his iPhone.

This guy may be crazy but he's not stupid. He holds several patents that have apparently provided a comfortable living, and has developed all sorts of cool avionics.
Click to expand...
Plenty of smart people say stupid things all the time. Just because you're bright in one area doesn't mean you can't be full of $#!+ in the field right next door.

It's the ol' "if you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bull$#!+". Some folks have improved on that technique by starting off with the dazzle, then segueing smoothly into the baffle.
 
flyingron said:
Last time I heard someone spewing nonsense like this it was John Tarver. [snip]
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sidetrack alert:

oh my god...it's been so long since the splaps days.

(btw, thank you for correctly using geostationary and geosynchronous).
 
Jay Honeck said:
Either way, he holds multiple patents in the avionics world. You should hear what he has to say about ADS-B.
Click to expand...

ADS-B is easy picking for anyone with even a mild systems background. I've posted before about its many problems that are being ignored.

I think I'd ask to see those patents the next time you run into him.

Someone commented on WAAS... that system, yes... has some vulnerability.

There was a significant but not widespread (affected Alaska, unfortunately) WAAS outage a few years back, if y'all remember. The geosynch satellite servicing part of CONUS had one of those rare(ish) failures where it stopped responding to controllers on the ground, and started drifting out of position which got it far enough East that Alaska wasn't covered as it should have been.

From Wikipedia...

"The Galaxy 15 satellite ceased responding to control commands between April 5, 2010, when solar activity damaged the spacecraft’s communication package, and December 23, 2010, when its battery drained and the Baseband Equipment command unit reset.[14] During this time, the satellite drifted from its original location of 133 degrees west to 93 degrees west, but the WAAS signal continued to be broadcast until December 16, 2010. Since Inmarsat-4 F3 is to the east of Anik F1R, this left 16 airports in Northwest Alaska experiencing temporary service outages four to five times a month due to lack of redundant WAAS signals.[15] By January 2011, Intelsat expected to be able to return the Galaxy 15 satellite to its original location by early March 2011.[16] As of 3:24 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time on March 18, 2011, Galaxy 15 was once again transmitting WAAS signals from 120 degrees west, moving west at 0.8 degrees longitude per day, and expected to arrive at its assigned geostationary orbit at 133.1 degrees west on April 4, 2011.[10]"

There's now three active WAAS birds, which probably should have been what they started with... hindsight being 20/20. Four would be ideal... but LockMart's contract says 3... and ends in 2016.
 
Jim_R said:
Plenty of smart people say stupid things all the time. Just because you're bright in one area doesn't mean you can't be full of $#!+ in the field right next door.
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Agree. Like Clint Eastwood said in his movie "A man should know his limitations". An avionics expert can be a complete dork in the intricacies of GPS. Specially GPS is mentally challenging for many who grew up around VORs and anything that is hard to grasp is so much easier to demonize and poke fun at.
 
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