Fixing the COVID-19 Crisis in 30 days

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Morgan3820 said:
So you are ok with other people risking their lives to bring you food and other essential services, while you shelter in your bunker?
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One person can take precautions and pickup food for a large number of others. Here in NY, I was the only one out of 5 people leaving the house for 3 months to get food and used my full face P100 North respirator that I had in my workshop. P100 plus full sealed face covering with lots of hand sanitizer before and after donning/doffing means a pretty high level of safety. I could have easily picked up and delivered food for 30 other people in my free time if I knew there was the need. One person doing this full time delivering grocery orders could supply an entire neighborhood with just a single high efficiency respirator.
 
Tantalum said:
Thank you. I actually "liked" both of your posts and the cigarette analogy would be very fair if it wasn't for the difference in droplets vs smoke. I do believe though that herd immunity will be the only way out of this, or a vaccine. I think the whole idea about flattening the curve was to slow the rate of spread so that we don't overwhelm hospitals.
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You are exactly correct. The outbreak quickly overwhelmed medical resources in Italy, and the powers that be didn't want to see that here. Looks bad in the news. The idea has been to keep the infection rate low until one or more of the numerous vaccines under development can be brought to bear and end this thing for good. Problem is us pesky Americans really don't like to do what we're told by so-called experts, and the disease is well out of control. I suspect it will stay out of control for the rest of this year and quite possibly a good sized chunk of next year.
 
The mindset that wants to 'fix the covid crisis in 30 days' is the same that keeps a giant dieting industry in business. And just like you can't fix BMI 40 obesity with a 30 day diet or a vitamin pill, this is going to take some work. As for how long this is going to take, I am a bit more optimistic. The breathless reporting nonwithstanding, some of the leading indicators in TX and AZ are actually improving. Now if the problem children in California and Florida get on board, maybe the country as a whole can follow the path that so many other countries have shown to work.
 
tspear said:
NY, and in fact the North Eastern states had fairly complete shutdowns; large parts of Europe did also. Somehow those groups survived the shutdown. And they have so far managed to open up in a way where the chance of community spread is rather low now.
So, yeah, it is possible.

Tim
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Interesting tweet storm about this and other Covid related items at the link below. Starts by questioning the WHO and their claim we need 70% herd immunity.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1288820368451526656.html
 
weilke said:
you can't fix BMI 40 obesity with a 30 day diet or a vitamin pill
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But, but, I ordered a diet coke with my biggie sized fries and I added a salad to every meal!
 
I will somewhat tremulously offer that the large(ish) vaccine coverage for things like measles and mumps does not prevent outbreaks. Had an outbreak of mumps in my little one-horse town a few years back.
 
I see we’ve now switched to needing face shields today... LOL. Per our “medical experts”, of course.

Be a good time to have had stock in a plexiglass company since January. Hahaha.

I miss the simple days when my Governor told me not to go more than 10 miles from home when the grocery store was 15 miles away.

Oh for the Good Old Days! ;)
 
Tantalum said:
But there is(are) factual answer(s) somewhere.. two people staring at a number 6 from different angles on the ground can believe whatever they want. Somebody will see a 9 and the other person will see you a 6, but whoever painted it intended to be either a 6 or a 9..
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In its simplest form yes I agree. However, with things like viruses and disease there isn't a black and white like numbers. I mean take this thread for instance, you have MD's and Phd's all on a different page. Who do you believe? Have you formed your own opinion based on all data from both sides? Both sides aren't right or wrong, totally but somewhere in the middle is a happy median and that can be obscured greatly depending on the agenda.
 
steingar said:
I will somewhat tremulously offer that the large(ish) vaccine coverage for things like measles and mumps does not prevent outbreaks. Had an outbreak of mumps in my little one-horse town a few years back.
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The R0 for Mumps is believed to be 10-12. The percentage immunized to achieve herd immunity is quite high. Some kids can't get the vaccine for medical reasons and then you have varying percentages of anti-vaxxer parents so the immunization rate is at times below the threshold required to stop the propagation. However, some religious communities exempted, the vaccination rate is usually high enough to slow down the outbreak enough that isolation and contact tracing works to contain them.
 
simtech said:
Who do you believe?
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Don't worry, the courts will figure it out. Articles starting to pop up on the latest lawsuits filed against employers for failing to provide a safe workplace against COVID. I'm sure all the expert witnesses that will be employed in these cases will have the solution figured out in no time.
 
Bell206 said:
Don't worry, the courts will figure it out. Articles starting to pop up on the latest lawsuits filed against employers for failing to provide a safe workplace against COVID. I'm sure all the expert witnesses that will be employed in these cases will have the solution figured out in no time.
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The lawsuits and legal fun are truly going to be epic entertainment. So much for law students not being able to find jobs! LOL

Going to be quite a few lawyers who make their nut on this one!
 
denverpilot said:
The lawsuits and legal fun are truly going to be epic entertainment. So much for law students not being able to find jobs! LOL

Going to be quite a few lawyers who make their nut on this one!
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Will the "expert" witnesses get paid at all to testify?
 
NHWannabe said:
Interesting tweet storm about this and other Covid related items at the link below. Starts by questioning the WHO and their claim we need 70% herd immunity.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1288820368451526656.html
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The author seems to be trying to piece together a conclusion based on preexisting belief.
I do not know enough to determine one way or the other which is correct. However, I will point out a few things:
1. Flu vaccine coverage is roughly 45% in the USA. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1819estimates.htm
2. If a vaccine is only 50% effective (the bar set by the FDA for the initial vaccines). So far all vaccines are two doses, that likely means actual adoption will be much lower than the flu vaccine. This does not bode well to hit even the lower number proposed.
3. The T-Cell immunity reference does not match what I have read; but I do not understand enough to correctly refute it.

Tim
 
flyingron said:
There are two issues here. First, it's not a "virion" itself that is the problem. If it were, the masks would be largely ineffective. SARS-COV-2 has not been shown to become airborne (like the measles, etc..). The virus is carried on aerosolized droplets which are larger. The problem with most masks is that they don't seal well enough around the edges to protect you from sucking in the stuff that's already aerosolized. Yes, it helps, but it's not surefire. When it comes to your breath, speech, etc... spewing these droplets, it does much better as the emanations are directed directly at the cloth that's only millimeters from your face. Some quite impressive video tests show that there's no detectable spread of droplets even from someone shouting when wearing even a crude cloth mask.
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Trying to remember which TV doctor (real MD even if on TV) pointed out that a mask substantially reduces outgoing droplets (as pointed out above) and reduces by 10-30% the external droplets that the wearer is receiving thru the mask.
 
Tantalum said:
I know, right? I almost find gloves worse. You'll see the dude handling money, wipe down a countertop, then handle deli meat all without switching gloves, and no one seems to bat an eye because he's wearing gloves
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I bat an eye, in fact I try to avoid anyone handling money and food without changing gloves or washing hands. Even my local Wendy's has started using both windows - first one for the money, second one for the food, just to minimize this issue. Well, at least it looks like it in public. Then there's the staff inside that are wearing the masks below the nose....
 
IK04 said:
Ha ha! Very funny.. You used "Government" and "educating" in the same sentence.

Government run schools are the root of most of our problems as a civil society.
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I resent that. Overall, New York State public K-12 is one of the best school systems in the country. At least when I was in K-12.
 
simtech said:
Well again, what I think and I what I believe is what my thoughts are on the subject. Everyone has an opinion. I've read many articles, studies and listened to many medical doctors who say vitamin d deficiency has been a contributing factor to many diseases. And yes I've read the complete opposite with studies saying there is no correlation what so ever and that higher vitamin d levels raise risk. So which is it? Hahaha

So between the two vastly opposite opinions I chose MY side that I choose to believe. Like everything there are always two complete opposites. I guess it all comes down to motive and who is paying for the study. Truthfully I rarely 100% believe experts and see both sides then use my own brain because they can be greatly different in every subject in life. Its served me well up till this point in my life. Im not going to change your mind and you're not gonna change. Fact of life and I'm okay with that. :)
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This reminds me - about 20 yrs ago, a close friend who's a rabbi had a heart attack. While in the hospital, many of his friends who are in various religious orders came to visit. One of the nuns told him that the entire convent was praying for him. As he put it - couldn't hurt! Guess it didn't, as he's still alive and well and doing fine.
 
murphey said:
Then there's the staff inside that are wearing the masks below the nose....
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It's a little known, and often debated fact, that the nose actually connects to and is part of the respiratory system
 
NHWannabe said:
Interesting tweet storm about this and other Covid related items at the link below. Starts by questioning the WHO and their claim we need 70% herd immunity.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1288820368451526656.html
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While a bit emotionally written, the general premise seems reasonable(to me).

The R0 calculation given is standard, the CDC currently estimates the R0 to be 2.5(https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html) so 60% of the population would need immunity(either gained from being infected, from being vaccinated, or perhaps have immunity innately as inferred here : https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200716-the-people-with-hidden-protection-from-covid-19)

If the CDC estimate of Infections = 10x identified infections (CDC has some info here (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/seroprevalence-types.html) and apply it to "cases/100K"(https://www.azfamily.com/news/conti...irus_coverage/interactives/state_comparisons/), several states would be in the 20 to 30% range.

So if even half of the "40 to 60% have innate immunity" is real, many states would be in the 40 to 60% range of the population falling into the immune category.

In particular, the CDC serology study showed NYC was at 28% at the end of April. If their "Identified vs actual" case ratio has held constant, they should be in the low 40% range of just "immunity via infection". that might also be the telltale for where others could expect a final leveling off.
 
Taking bets on how long before some jurisdiction makes goggles or face shields mandatory.
 
wsuffa said:
Taking bets on how long before some jurisdiction makes goggles or face shields mandatory.
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But goggles and face shields are clearly meant to protect the wearer, not others, unlike masks, so I doubt it, unless they are worried about liability.
 
murphey said:
Then there's the staff inside that are wearing the masks below the nose....
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yeah, but they're mouth breathers:confused::eek:;)

Morgan3820 said:
This just showed up today. So I am going to probably die soon anyway, Covid or not.
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You DEFINITELY need to stay at least 6 feet away from that thing. PM me your address, and I'll "sanitize" the area so you can live forever (short for, where can I pick up that bike;):)).
 
My brother the doctor said two things recently:
This is the most embarrassing thing in the history of the medical profession, and
The virus will be over in mid-November.

BTW, he is a big lib and worked for the WHO and for the Obama Admin.
 
cgrab said:
My brother the doctor said two things recently:
This is the most embarrassing thing in the history of the medical profession, and
The virus will be over in mid-November.

BTW, he is a big lib and worked for the WHO and for the Obama Admin.
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There’s medical professionals who work in the real world, and those who have driven a desk for thirty years who feel compelled to weigh in without any backing evidence of anything.

We’re just taking to / watching in the media — the wrong ones.

No offense to the desk drivers who are smart enough to say “no comment” when the media calls.

The ones that actually work inside the six foot boundary of equally contagious junk and have for decades... they’re probably who one wants to be talking to about how they survived / didn’t even catch a sniffle doing it, all these years.

Haven’t seen any on TV yet.
 
danhagan said:
yeah, but they're mouth breathers:confused::eek:;)



You DEFINITELY need to stay at least 6 feet away from that thing. PM me your address, and I'll "sanitize" the area so you can live forever (short for, where can I pick up that bike;):)).
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Thank you..at least somebody cares...
 
cgrab said:
My brother the doctor said two things recently:
This is the most embarrassing thing in the history of the medical profession, and
The virus will be over in mid-November.

BTW, he is a big lib and worked for the WHO and for the Obama Admin.
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That is kinda funny, and sad at the same time. Only real way that happens is if the required herd immunity threshold is way off.

Tim
 
Someone in one of the threads asked for evidence of higher suicides...

CDC guy says yup. Suicides and drug overdoses way up.

Link is to Townhall and some may not like that. Being discussed on other web sites but not picked up by mainstream yet.

Decided to use this link since his number source is unknown, but the article links to a ton of other official sources saying their suicide rates, hotlines, ODs, and such... way up.

Granted, many of those are localized so the national numbers remain at question and the article is careful to point out the official numbers aren’t “approved” by anybody for two years in normal times. And also granted YNAB serious Covid problems leading to possible suicidal issues (if anyone direct correlation) are super highly localized right now anyway. Covid isn’t really a national issue at this point.

(And what’s up in California? One county surpassing all others by a factor of three? Riverside? Seems... sketchy...)

Just posting because someone wanted info and I can’t find that post. Also because our own initial hot spot at the ski areas had an article linked (how I found this). Eagle county tied their usual number of six already with quite a bit of the year to go.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/micae...abovebase-suicides-than-covid-deaths-n2573278

The various links (since they just happen to be aggregated here) are a more interesting read honestly, than the main article, but it is what it is. Was worth a few clicks.

I don’t see the Covid linear math not surpassing this number eventually either, FWIW. But depends on any change in slope for these things as people get mo more frustrated with a two year event.

But for the moment... (shrug...)
 
denverpilot said:
There’s medical professionals who work in the real world, and those who have driven a desk for thirty years who feel compelled to weigh in without any backing evidence of anything.
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I would like to speak to my brothers bona fides and to bring in an aviation tie....While working for the WHO in Switzerland, my brother would routinely fly to central Africa where he would hire a plane and instructor for a flight to "the interior." He never got his license but has over 800 hours. He said if he got his license they would have him do a check out and then send him off. By taking a lesson, he could just get on his way and when he arrived, the instructor would always pitch in to help with crowd control. He would inoculate whole villages for MMR and also worked on malaria. He's a real world doctor.
 
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