Fixing the COVID-19 Crisis in 30 days

[wrbix]

Not at all, but it isn't the black plague. It isn't airborne Ebola. The 24 hour news cycle is one of the worst if not THE WORST thing to ever happen to this world. Most of what they "report" is utter BS and sensationalism. They are driven by ratings and subsequently sensationalize every thing and expound upon it for hours on end.

BTW you aren't helping by exaggerating the situation. Your wife is NOT witnessing deaths DAILY in otherwise healthy people that simply doesn't jive with the facts. Can healthy people get the virus and die? Yes. Do they? It is rare and you know it. If you don't believe me ask the CDC.

Please do NOT call me a liar. We are witnessing the situation.
You are bloviating

 

[Cap'n Jack]

As someone who regularly publishes peer reviewed scholarly articles, I think this public perception of peer review is a bit overrated. I don't know about vitamin D and covid, but even if it were true, it would be very difficult to get it past reviewers for the same reason why you assumed that it might be a scam. Reviewers are people too, and are influenced by current trends and news media just like everyone else. Many things in medicine comes down to common sense. There are thousands of studies on obesity, diabetes and heart disease, but the majority of them can be cured by eating healthy and exercising. The lawyers may argue that diet and exercise has not been proven to cure heart disease, which may have some truth as well.

I find that with sufficient supporting data, it can be done. Look at the guy who showed the link between bacteria and ulcers, and demonstrated that antibiotics worked better than antacids for most cases.

Yes, I publish, too.

 

[flyingron]

Well having been a reviewer for peer-reviewed research, I disagree. It isn't likely to be the reviewers who are the issue. The submission first has to get through the journal editor before it even gets sent to the reviewers, who by and large, will rate it on its merits.

 

[DFH65]

Please do NOT call me a liar. We are witnessing the situation.
You are bloviating

Let me remind you, you were the one who said my statement was "BS" and you accused me of thinking the virus was a hoax. I explained that is not the case and I explained the point of of my post.

I am not calling you a liar I just think you are exaggerating or at least your wording is poor. What you are doing is the EXACT SAME reason I am saying turn off the news. I have had more people tell me that several million people were going to die in the US from Corona. I was told that all of the hospitals would be overwhelmed. I was told there would be people dying in the streets. With the exception of a few hospitals it NEVER happened. Could a Million people die? Yeah, if 1000 people a day die every single day for the next two years or the death rate increases significantly.

I simply see no value in over stating the situation. I deal in facts. I know some people think that by overstating the problem they will get more people to comply with whatever narrative they are pitching. The reality is people don't trust sources that constantly over hype a situation.

To be fair most hospitals don't have any people dying EVERY DAY of Corona virus. A quick look says there are just over 6000 hospitals in the US. The last couple days have been high for Covid deaths and there are around 1000 nation wide.

Certainly if you want to show me DATA that indicates that perfectly HEALTHY people are dying on a DAILY basis from Corona in the hospital your wife works at I am happy to admit you are not overstating the case.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm?s_cid=mm6928e1_w#contribAff

 

[denverpilot]

Please do NOT call me a liar. We are witnessing the situation.
You are bloviating

Probably a perception issue. Your wife apparently works in a location both a hot spot AND literally at the physical location the 0.3% go for help. And the published numbers from those locations have definitely seen those going there and dying aren’t majority healthy as a ratio.

He’s not bloviating, he’s looking at the populace as a whole and actual state numbers across a wide area.

The experience inside a hot spot is going to be significantly different. Couple hundred million of us live outside of those.

Urbanization had a big unintended consequence for many on this one.

But the accelerated death rate hasn’t changed the ratio of “supposedly healthy” to “fat sickly American” dying in or out of the hot spots. They’re they same ratio.

Only the total rate changes. And it’s been falling for two and a half months in all but a handful of places. Mathematically it was expected to grow linearly with time, so that’s actually good.

A return to linear isn’t exactly unexpected either.

 

[wrbix]

Extrapolate all you want. The situation here is as I’ve said.

 

[denverpilot]

Extrapolate all you want. The situation here is as I’ve said.

As a broad platitude, yes. The answer to those is always, “So what?”

Got a plan?

That’s literally how this thread started. Perfect place to post it up!

My take has always been “You can’t fix it in 30 days, you’re looking at two years, and people are gonna die.”

Math backs that one up still.

It also shows a whole lot less dying than the predictions and an unexplained drop in deaths. Cool. I’ll take freebies from Nature. She has no reason to be so kind.

So... What’cha got!? We all know people die from it. Isn’t new info.

 

[steingar]

As someone who regularly publishes peer reviewed scholarly articles, I think this public perception of peer review is a bit overrated. I don't know about vitamin D and covid, but even if it were true, it would be very difficult to get it past reviewers for the same reason why you assumed that it might be a scam.

The words do not exist in English for just how strongly I disagree. I've overturned closely held paradigm in my career. No scientist worth his or her salt questions data.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

Don't know why that is surprising. The cloth masks haven't been touted as effective against preventing you from getting COVID, it's to prevent you from spreading yours around.

I cannot understand that the argument that there should be an asymmetry here. If 90% of the virions will get through a cloth mask in one direction, the same seems like it should be true in reverse.

I can see the argument for two masks are better than one and result in an 0.81 chance of infection rather than 0.9.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

I cannot understand that the argument that there should be an asymmetry here. If 90% of the virions will get through a cloth mask in one direction, the same seems like it should be true in reverse.

I can see the argument for two masks are better than one and result in an 0.81 chance of infection rather than 0.9.

AFAIK, it is intended to block the droplets that carry the virions, not the virus particles themselves.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

AFAIK, it is intended to block the droplets that carry the virions, not the virus particles themselves.

That may be true. I was just taking about total virion count, however carried.

If the mask stops droplets one way, why would it not the other?

The one way I could see this making some sense is if a major absorption route for picking up virions is other than breathing them in. There is some evidence for absorption through the eyes, but I think as a fraction this is fairly smaller route.

 

[wrbix]

As a broad platitude, yes. The answer to those is always, “So what?”

Got a plan?

That’s literally how this thread started. Perfect place to post it up!

My take has always been “You can’t fix it in 30 days, you’re looking at two years, and people are gonna die.”

Math backs that one up still.

It also shows a whole lot less dying than the predictions and an unexplained drop in deaths. Cool. I’ll take freebies from Nature. She has no reason to be so kind.

So... What’cha got!? We all know people die from it. Isn’t new info.

Again:
Extrapolate all you want. The situation here is as I’ve said

I never suggested I had a plan, simply suggested that “turning off one’s TV” was NOT the solution.

I’m out. Y’all carry on as you do.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

That may be true. I was just taking about total virion count, however carried.

If the mask stops droplets one way, why would it not the other?

The one way I could see this making some sense is if a major absorption route for picking up virions is other than breathing them in. There is some evidence for absorption through the eyes, but I think as a fraction this is fairly smaller route.

You aren't shooting the droplets at other people when you wear a mask, nor the virus particles they carry.

Beyond that, there's a lot of work done by a lot of people with more expertise than I have. I invite you to look it up.

 

[PeterNSteinmetz]

You aren't shooting the droplets at other people when you wear a mask, nor the virus particles they carry.

Right. But if one of those droplets hits the other person’s mask, their mask should stop it from being inhaled by them.

If you have some links to scientific publications that describe or document how this works one way, but not the other, I am certainly glad to see them. I have not seen a good explanation when looking.

 

[EdFred]

You aren't shooting the droplets at other people when you wear a mask, nor the virus particles they carry.

Beyond that, there's a lot of work done by a lot of people with more expertise than I have. I invite you to look it up.

Not a fact, it's just what you want to believe.

 

[flyingron]

I cannot understand that the argument that there should be an asymmetry here. If 90% of the virions will get through a cloth mask in one direction, the same seems like it should be true in reverse.

I can see the argument for two masks are better than one and result in an 0.81 chance of infection rather than 0.9.

There are two issues here. First, it's not a "virion" itself that is the problem. If it were, the masks would be largely ineffective. SARS-COV-2 has not been shown to become airborne (like the measles, etc..). The virus is carried on aerosolized droplets which are larger. The problem with most masks is that they don't seal well enough around the edges to protect you from sucking in the stuff that's already aerosolized. Yes, it helps, but it's not surefire. When it comes to your breath, speech, etc... spewing these droplets, it does much better as the emanations are directed directly at the cloth that's only millimeters from your face. Some quite impressive video tests show that there's no detectable spread of droplets even from someone shouting when wearing even a crude cloth mask.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Right. But if one of those droplets hits the other person’s mask, their mask should stop it from being inhaled by them.

If you have some links to scientific publications that describe or document how this works one way, but not the other, I am certainly glad to see them. I have not seen a good explanation when looking.

We've been through this before, look up the links from last time. I've seen no evidence there's anything new, but I've things to do more important to me than more time in this discussion.

 

[EdFred]

There are two issues here. First, it's not a "virion" itself that is the problem. If it were, the masks would be largely ineffective. SARS-COV-2 has not been shown to become airborne (like the measles, etc..). The virus is carried on aerosolized droplets which are larger. The problem with most masks is that they don't seal well enough around the edges to protect you from sucking in the stuff that's already aerosolized. Yes, it helps, but it's not surefire. When it comes to your breath, speech, etc... spewing these droplets, it does much better as the emanations are directed directly at the cloth that's only millimeters from your face. Some quite impressive video tests show that there's no detectable spread of droplets even from someone shouting when wearing even a crude cloth mask.

Then why do my glasses fog up every time I put on a mask if it's preventing all these water droplets from getting out? (3 different kinds, every single one of them causes fogging)

 

[bdtaz]

If it is "virus laden droplets" that are the concern(and it seems the only thing typical masks can stop), why would a mask any be more effective than just doing what you were taught when young?

Use your indoor voice when conversing with someone close by so you aren't spitting everywhere when you talk.

Turn your head and cover your mouth(with a tissue or handkerchief, into your shirt, in the crook of your arm) if you need to sneeze/cough in public.

Wash your hands often.

 

[flyingron]

Then why do my glasses fog up every time I put on a mask if it's preventing all these water droplets from getting out? (3 different kinds, every single one of them causes fogging)

Because, those aren't DROPLETS. You are taking humidified air and passing it over a cooler surface (your own personal advection fog). Exhaled humid air is not the problem. Spewed droplets are.

 

[flyingron]

If it is "virus laden droplets" that are the concern(and it seems the only thing typical masks can stop), why would a mask any be more effective than just doing what you were taught when young?

Use your indoor voice when conversing with someone close by so you aren't spitting everywhere when you talk.

Turn your head and cover your mouth(with a tissue or handkerchief, into your shirt, in the crook of your arm) if you need to sneeze/cough in public.

Wash your hands often.

Covering your mouth when you talk or cough is pretty much what the mask is doing.
The aerosolized droplets hover for a period which is why the fact that the ill-fitting masks (including the ones causing the eyeglass fog) can allow you to suck in some of the drops.
While singing or shouting increases the amount of spew, regular speaking and in some cases, just breathing is a problem as well.

Washing your hands really isn't doing anything effective on COVID, it's just an easy dodge to make people feel good (but does help with other health issues so it's a good idea).

 

[EdFred]

Because, those aren't DROPLETS. You are taking humidified air and passing it over a cooler surface (your own personal advection fog). Exhaled humid air is not the problem. Spewed droplets are.

Well, hell I don't spit when I talk, wearing a mask isn't going to do crap in my case.

 

[sarangan]

The words do not exist in English for just how strongly I disagree. I've overturned closely held paradigm in my career. No scientist worth his or her salt questions data.

You are assuming that data is always collected with objectivity. I've been in an NIH study where the people conducting the study (who was part owner of the company selling the product) screened candidates who are more likely to have a favorable outcome. The study is out there as peer-reviewed and validated.

 

[weilke]

So where can you buy the vitamin pills that will fix this epidemic in 30 days ?

 

[Palmpilot]

Then why do my glasses fog up every time I put on a mask if it's preventing all these water droplets from getting out? (3 different kinds, every single one of them causes fogging)

Did someone say "all"? I must have missed that.

 

[weilke]

Fogging glasses are a sign of water vapor, not droplets. If they were the result of droplets, they would persist after the lenses warm up.

 

[Palmpilot]

...Washing your hands really isn't doing anything effective on COVID, it's just an easy dodge to make people feel good (but does help with other health issues so it's a good idea).

Is 100% of the coronavirus transmission airborne? I thought it was just thought to be mainly airborne.

 

[weilke]

Is 100% of the coronavirus transmission airborne? I thought it was just thought to be mainly airborne.

- Mostly droplets.
- Minor contribution from smaller respiratory aerosols (airborne).
- Possible (but never conclusively demonstrated) entry via the eyes.
- Minor contribution from 'fomites' (contaminated objects).

Droplet transmission can be reduced by social distancing and masks (both as measure of source control but also as PPE for the wearer)
Fine aerosols can only be controlled by everyone else around the source wearing a respirator (N95, P100, PAPR etc.)
Transmission via touch can be reduced with hand hygiene.

To control an epidemic, none of this has to be 100% effective. It has to be 'good enough' to keep population wide Rt below 1.0 for an extended period of time.

Now if you are dealing with a situation where you need to protect an individual worker, then 'good enough' is not sufficient. So if you put a nursing aide around a nursing home patient with known covid, you need to equip them with a N95 + faceshield, gloves, gowns and provide a safe changing facility so they can get out of the contaminated PPE without infecting themselves.

 

[flyingron]

Well, hell I don't spit when I talk, wearing a mask isn't going to do crap in my case.

I assure you that you do spew microdroplets. There's been some pretty interesting videos taken with high speed cameras and appropriate lighting by MIT both with and without masks to demonstrate this. Even normal speech (and as I said just breathing in some cases) causes the aerosolization. Simple cloth masks were shown to block virtually all of this.

 

[EdFred]

I assure you that you do spew microdroplets. There's been some pretty interesting videos taken with high speed cameras and appropriate lighting by MIT both with and without masks to demonstrate this. Even normal speech (and as I said just breathing in some cases) causes the aerosolization. Simple cloth masks were shown to block virtually all of this.

What if I'm fluent in ASL?

 

[GaryM]

What if I'm fluent in ASL?

Are you?

 

[flyingron]

What if I'm fluent in ASL?

You do know that there's more to ASL (contrary to much popular belief) than just waiving your hands around.

 

[Juliet Hotel]

What if I'm fluent in ASL?

Now you're on to something. Because requiring all persons to learn and use only ASL for in person communications is so much easier than just putting on a mask while you're in a store.

 

[Tantalum]

..I have a glass of milk with breakfast and after dinner every day and eat probably 4-6 cartons worth of mushrooms a week (frigging love mushrooms, dry saute with some garlic.. damn)

As far as I can tell I've never had the flu, or at least never felt sick enough to warrant getting tested. The last time I had a fever was probably before I could drive (never had flu shot either)

I'm decently clean, but I'm not a germophobe, I'll take a sip from someone else's glass if they offer to try their drink and I don't obsessively wash my hands, nor use anti-bacterial soaps as these (A) reduce your body's immunity and (B) create super strong bacteria (C) are bad for the environment (if it's bad for a septic system it obviously has implications for the natural eco system and balance of the world

Basic soap does a fine enough job of washing crud away anyway.

..there was another study as well back in April (?) that suggested Vitamin D levels have some kind of correlation with fatality rates

I do wear a mask though, because whatever, it's honestly not that inconvenient and most of the common unwashed proletariat masses are, frankly, gross.. so if a little piece of fabric can help prevent someone else's aerosolized "mouth juice" (yuck!) from getting near me, then whatever. It's a battle that's not worth fighting honestly. Of all the things for us to be upset about, wearing a piece of paper or cloth over your face ought to be at the bottom of the list. Plus, just in case I do have it, why should I put someone else's life potentially at risk?

 

[jsstevens]

AFAIK, it is intended to block the droplets that carry the virions, not the virus particles themselves.

And it’s intended to break up and slow the accelerated air stream to keep those droplets and anything else going with them from traveling so far. Put a mask on and try to blow out a candle for illustration.

 

[weilke]

And it’s intended to break up and slow the accelerated air stream to keep those droplets and anything else going with them from traveling so far. Put a mask on and try to blow out a candle for illustration.

It works like the inertial separator on a turbine engine. Doesn't catch every last ice crystal, but it catches enough for it to work.

 

[Bob Noel]

or, another way to look at it: Whatever minimal value a mask is (especially in light of the extraordinarily poor hand discipline), that tiny amount of value might just lower the Ro a little more below 1.0.

 

[Tantalum]

extraordinarily poor hand discipline

I know, right? I almost find gloves worse. You'll see the dude handling money, wipe down a countertop, then handle deli meat all without switching gloves, and no one seems to bat an eye because he's wearing gloves

 

[steingar]

You are assuming that data is always collected with objectivity. I've been in an NIH study where the people conducting the study (who was part owner of the company selling the product) screened candidates who are more likely to have a favorable outcome. The study is out there as peer-reviewed and validated.

Then someone didn't do their job. You're not supposed to have conflicts and interest. To enforce that you have to tell the NIH who you work for when you ask for money, and you have to tell publishers where the money for the study came from. I'd like to know who this is so I can blow the whistle on this scientific misconduct. You can inform me in a private message if you don't want to out the miscreants publicly. I will of course need evidence that the data collection was as you say, and that you aren't just disgruntled for some reason.

 

[bnt83]

I know, right? I almost find gloves worse. You'll see the dude handling money, wipe down a countertop, then handle deli meat all without switching gloves, and no one seems to bat an eye because he's wearing gloves

It sure has been interesting watching the unwritten/written rules of environmental impacts suspended to create trillions of disposables and trillions of gallons hand sanitizer. KILL IT!!!!! <nature>