Fixing the COVID-19 Crisis in 30 days

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denverpilot said:
Someone in one of the threads asked for evidence of higher suicides...

CDC guy says yup. Suicides and drug overdoses way up.

Link is to Townhall and some may not like that. Being discussed on other web sites but not picked up by mainstream yet.

Decided to use this link since his number source is unknown, but the article links to a ton of other official sources saying their suicide rates, hotlines, ODs, and such... way up.
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Shocking that deaths of despair are up in a country doing less than the bare minimum to keep people from ending up on the streets in the middle of a pandemic.


Good news though, Jeff Bezos has made a bunch of money and amazon stock is way up! It will trickle down eventually!
 
cgrab said:
I would like to speak to my brothers bona fides and to bring in an aviation tie....While working for the WHO in Switzerland, my brother would routinely fly to central Africa where he would hire a plane and instructor for a flight to "the interior." He never got his license but has over 800 hours. He said if he got his license they would have him do a check out and then send him off. By taking a lesson, he could just get on his way and when he arrived, the instructor would always pitch in to help with crowd control. He would inoculate whole villages for MMR and also worked on malaria. He's a real world doctor.
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Cool. Yeah I never said anything about your bro, if there was any misunderstanding...

DavidWhite said:
Shocking that deaths of despair are up in a country doing less than the bare minimum to keep people from ending up on the streets in the middle of a pandemic.


Good news though, Jeff Bezos has made a bunch of money and amazon stock is way up! It will trickle down eventually!
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Must be bad where you are. Streets are full of folks going to work and such here, and wife’s “primary transport hospital” for Covid is at eight patients as of yesterday. Traffic reporters have been busy again for a month. APA had over twenty in line for takeoff the other day.

Wouldn’t say it’s fully recovered but we started a month before everybody else adapting. Plexiglass sellers are having a stellar year.
 
cgrab said:
My brother the doctor said two things recently:
This is the most embarrassing thing in the history of the medical profession, and
The virus will be over in mid-November.

BTW, he is a big lib and worked for the WHO and for the Obama Admin.
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Is he an epidemiologist?
 
DavidWhite said:
Good news though, Jeff Bezos has made a bunch of money and amazon stock is way up! It will trickle down eventually![/QUOTE]

Eventually? We need it NOW! We can't sit around waiting for him to divorce another wife!:eek::p
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denverpilot said:
Must be bad where you are. Streets are full of folks going to work and such here, and wife’s “primary transport hospital” for Covid is at eight patients as of yesterday. Traffic reporters have been busy again for a month. APA had over twenty in line for takeoff the other day.

Wouldn’t say it’s fully recovered but we started a month before everybody else adapting. Plexiglass sellers are having a stellar year.
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I'm sure most people would rather be home instead of being forced to expose themselves to a deadly virus to keep from being homeless, but the US economy is a moloch that requires constant blood sacrifice to keep running, hence why the streets are crowded with people going to work.
 
"deadly virus"

good grief

Being a little melodramatic?
 
What's interesting as to whether the general public considers COVID the end of ends probably can be tracked more readily as the 1st vaccine polls are coming out. Appears a majority will opt out of any COVID vac. Current numbers are more in line to the flu vac users than not.
 
Bob Noel said:
"deadly virus"

good grief

Being a little melodramatic?
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Have you contracted it yet? Why not find someone that has the active infection and roll the dice yourself and report back afterwards. Get a good strong dose and then we have some real world data to discuss in 3-5 weeks.

Me? I’ll wear my respirator and sit out this virus.
 
cgrab said:
No, his PhD is in immunology. Not sure why that matters.
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It matters because the guy that works on diesel trucks all day is a mechanic and the guy that works on outboard boat engines all day is also mechanic. But I wouldn't ask my outboard guy for advice on the Cummins in my freightliner and I wouldn't ask my Freightliner guy for advice on the Evinrude in my boat.

One of my truck drivers got on a plane and flew from Michigan to California last week. When I asked him if he thought that was good idea in light of the pandeamic his response was, 'it's ok, my wife is a nurse so she knows...'

Knows what exactly? How to be a nurse? Great, I'm very happy for her. But I'm not seeing how that qualifies her at all to make decisions on whether or not its safe to fly on a commercial airliner from Michigan where infection numbers are relatively low to California where infection numbers are currently much worse.

Diesel mechanics know how to work on Freightliners, Boat mechanics know how to work on Evinrudes. Doctors know how to work on sick people. Epidemiologists know how to work with pandamics. So not for nothing but when I hear 'oh my brother is doctor and he says X regarding this pandemic... my reaction is 'well my garbage man says Y about it and because neither one of them are qualified to comment about the topic, chances are they're both wrong.'

And granted your brother's PhD is in immunology and for sure that's related. But Immunology ain't epidemiology just like diesel engines ain't outboard engines. Just sayin'.
 
I discovered that doctors may be great at their own specialty, but don't know much about someone else's specialty. Makes sense, though. You wouldn't necessarily think an airline pilot would be an expert cropduster.
 
DavidWhite said:
I'm sure most people would rather be home instead of being forced to expose themselves to a deadly virus to keep from being homeless, but the US economy is a moloch that requires constant blood sacrifice to keep running, hence why the streets are crowded with people going to work.
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You’d be wrong.

Haven’t run into anyone who’d rather be home.

MIL just moved senior living centers because hers was attached to a nursing home and they’ve been in full lockdown for five months. Remember we’re way ahead of you.

Numbers and hard data are still showing no significant virus activity here for pushing three months now.

Like I said. 8 ICU patients in a major hospital in a metro of 6 million... isn’t even an “epidemic” let alone meeting “pandemic” criteria.

Every physical location shall have to follow their own numbers and “do the needful” as my buddy from India says... but nothing going on here.

Heck our official state numbers say we apparently defeated the flu here for months... which is either true from distancing or someone counted the flu cases as ... something else. Either way, funny mathematically.

After your peak, if you aren’t already there (haven’t looked at AK data) you’ll be where we are shortly. Pattern has repeated everywhere except where cases are crossing the southern border, since Mexico also trailed by a couple of months.

But nah. The entire city seems just fine with whatever individuals care to do. People who want to hide, can for the most part. Tons never stopped working and are much more comfortable now that their businesses have adapted contact styles, and the hurting ones are businesses that simply couldn’t adapt, which aren’t in the majority.

Aviation and travel is hosed though. Badly. Business travel isn’t rebounding anytime soon. Leisure travel will eventually but not before lots of business failures and mergers.

Starting to see signs in the data that higher testing is showing pretty high “already infected” rates which is a good thing. Knocks a couple of months off the finish line already.

But no. Definitely not a majority here really interested in being home. Lots and lots doing outdoor things though. All the mountain and backcountry public locations are busy. Two hour traffic jam reported Friday at Floyd Hill on WB I-70 headed to the hills.

FedEx and UPS guys are loving it. Made their usual Christmas season money for three months now. The FedEx guy keeps asking me if I’ll sell him the old Subaru. LOL
 
wsuffa said:
I remember being in a class years ago where the instructor described epidemiology as "junk science".
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given how much they have guessed at things this year and how often they have been wrong, it looks like it is.

economically, there’s been a shift in what people are doing. Those who recognize that and work to fill the gaps will benefit. Those who insist on continuing to make wagon wheels will suffer.
 
Around here, there is a split between people who are fine going out (including me) and people who would rather stay home. From the beginning I went for walks “for essential exercise”. I haven’t had groceries or food delivered yet. Yesterday I took the public bus to a in-person first aid and CPR class. That said, people around here are pretty compliant about masks; even more so than a month ago. We never emerged from shutdown. Some things are open, but many places are not, and they haven’t been all along. Whether it’s this slow approach or not, the city of 900,000 has only had about 60 deaths. Are they being overly cautious, who knows? I would have initially have expected more of a problem due to reliance on public transportation and sketchy people. I’m enjoying the lack of people out and about. Very few tourists, when this would be the peak of tourist season. I always said I would like the city better with fewer people, and here it is. They have shut a number of streets to through traffic so people can walk and bike. I know I’ll miss that when things go back to normal. I know I’m lucky that I don’t have the problem of work or school age kids, but I’m getting used to things the way they are.
 
Palmpilot said:
OK, looks like...
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Also looks like the initial studies on the effectiveness of COVID preventative measures and spread control measures are starting to be available publicly. As such there are various older studies, etc. from previous pandemics that are being referenced in the new releases that make for some interesting reading--especially the ones that reference the WHO's previous failures which are almost a mirror to the COVID issues they are a part of. Unfortunately, a number of studies are still behind pay walls.
 
Matthew Rogers said:
Have you contracted it yet? Why not find someone that has the active infection and roll the dice yourself and report back afterwards. Get a good strong dose and then we have some real world data to discuss in 3-5 weeks.

Me? I’ll wear my respirator and sit out this virus.
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consider yourself lucky that you can choose to do what your conscience/fear/whatever dictates. Many of us prefer to go to work or out in public and not turn our lives upside down in fear of a deadly virus. But we are not given the choice.
 
cgrab said:
It gives a perspective on people who say not to take the advice of doctors because they aren't experts on a virus that has never been seen before.
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I’m a big fan of Scott Adams’ work, but having listened to the podcast I’m not inclined to ignore the advice of the medical community because a cartoonist thinks they lack expertise.
 
denverpilot said:
You’d be wrong.

Haven’t run into anyone who’d rather be home.
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That hasn't been my experience. Everyone at my company qualifies as essential. I had several employees who requested to be laid off because they were concerned about getting sick. We laid off those who requested to be while our business levels were down. Once our customers started coming back online we had to bring everyone back. Most came back but a few quit because they did not want to risk getting sick. My wife is working from home and has no intention of returning to her office this year if ever. If her company demanded that she go back to working in the office every day, she would likely quit.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
That hasn't been my experience. Everyone at my company qualifies as essential. I had several employees who requested to be laid off because they were concerned about getting sick. We laid off those who requested to be while our business levels were down. Once our customers started coming back online we had to bring everyone back. Most came back but a few quit because they did not want to risk getting sick. My wife is working from home and has no intention of returning to her office this year if ever. If her company demanded that she go back to working in the office every day, she would likely quit.
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How do these people intend to pay their keep?
 
Juliet Hotel said:
.. I had several employees who requested to be laid off because they were concerned about getting sick. ...
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While I know some people that have legitimate concerns, I also know people that are "concerned about getting sick" more for the unemployment pay than actual fear of this bug or any bug. When the unemployment benefits expire, there will be a lot more interest in working.
 
GaryM said:
I’m a big fan of Scott Adams’ work, but having listened to the podcast I’m not inclined to ignore the advice of the medical community because a cartoonist thinks they lack expertise.
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I think you missed the point. News organizations saying that medical advice is not "proven" are giving medical advice. I'd rather take unproven advice from a doctor than any medical advice from a talking head.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Your guess is as good as mine.
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Consider that the cost to the economy (not to mention any compassionate feeling for family and friends) of a single life has been “calculated” at $9.3 million, not counting the costs to medically care for a dying person for 5 weeks. A person taking precautions to stay alive, even if that costs several tens of thousands of dollars, will be a net benefit for the economy.

https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/economic-cost-coronavirus-recession-covid-deaths

15 weeks of the $600 benefit is $9000. Divide that into $9.3 million and you have 1032 people using that unemployment benefit per death to break even. Since then virus has at least a 1% case fatality rate (4.5% in my county), if everyone is infected and 1% of the people die, then it would cause 10 times the economic impact.

So by a factor of 10, staying home and protecting yourself and others is a net economic benefit. If only everyone actually followed the recommendations in the beginning, we would have fewer deaths and a stronger economy both by calculated cost and by opening fully earlier when the case load falls.
 
denverpilot said:
8 ICU patients in a major hospital in a metro of 6 million... isn’t even an “epidemic” let alone meeting “pandemic” criteria.

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Byran Heath reported a couple weeks ago that a total of 152 have been hospitalized from all over the region, (Bryan has two large facilities in Lincoln, more below)

Of those 152 only 30% needed ICU care. 21% need ventilator. The highest recorded inpatient count has been 30 total which was early June.

May 4th reported 4 COVID patients on vents a total 17 COVID admitted.

June 29, they had 1 COVID patient on a vent, 4 others total.

Bryan's capacity is 640 beds total, 200 ICU beds and 161 ventilators.

I was offered work from home back in January, I declined. Having woke up in an ICU (during the recorded H1N1 pandemic) with black hands and feet that were amputated in a couple days I think I have a pretty good understanding of health risks. I said it months ago, the same people are working the cash registers at the grocery store, gas station etc, it is still true today, I see them every week.

A friend in Kansas tested positive a few weeks ago, 6 days to recovery and was never admitted. His kids both got it, and got over it in a few days with no treatment.
 
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Matthew Rogers said:
Consider that the cost to the economy (not to mention any compassionate feeling for family and friends) of a single life has been “calculated” at $9.3 million, not counting the costs to medically care for a dying person for 5 weeks. A person taking precautions to stay alive, even if that costs several tens of thousands of dollars, will be a net benefit for the economy.

https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/economic-cost-coronavirus-recession-covid-deaths

15 weeks of the $600 benefit is $9000. Divide that into $9.3 million and you have 1032 people using that unemployment benefit per death to break even. Since then virus has at least a 1% case fatality rate (4.5% in my county), if everyone is infected and 1% of the people die, then it would cause 10 times the economic impact.

So by a factor of 10, staying home and protecting yourself and others is a net economic benefit. If only everyone actually followed the recommendations in the beginning, we would have fewer deaths and a stronger economy both by calculated cost and by opening fully earlier when the case load falls.
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That may be correct on an individual basis, but in this context it’s assuming that the resulting double-digit inflation is an economic benefit.
 
MauleSkinner said:
That may be correct on an individual basis, but in this context it’s assuming that the resulting double-digit inflation is an economic benefit.
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It also falls prey to the law of averages, which doesn't take into account the fact that the majority of those who have perished from C-19 are of retirement age and weren't contributing much to the economy in terms of GDP or buying up consumer goods/services. Those living on fixed incomes aren't typically going out and making large purchases to invest back into the economy. So applying the $9.3M lifetime benefit per person holds as an average, but most of that value is earned in the working years, so the first 20yrs and the last 20yrs are likely of lesser "economic value" if we want to look at it through that lens, morbid as it may be.
 
The people who don't realize the deadliness of this virus are a hoot. "Lots of folks die of the flu!" True, but the only thing we do to prevent spread of the flu is a half-assed vaccination program (the vaccines are often not that effective due to no one's fault. Predicting which strain of flu will predominate is like predicting the weather, and we all know how that can turn out). For the 'rona we did everything. Shuttered the country, closed down everything, tanked the economy. And we still have more deaths from the 'rona than 4-5 years worth of influenza. The one piece of really good news is after the vaccines come out our worries will decrease immeasurably. Influenza can easily switch coat proteins, Coronaviruses can't. Any vaccine against any strain of coronavirus should counteract all of them. Moreover, it is unlikely that the virus can mutant to avoid the vaccine. That would mean wholesale changes to its coat protein, which is its secret weapon in attaching to our respiratory tracts.

The other bit of good news is the death toll is going down because MDs are getting better at treating it. A lot of folks died at first because no one knew what to do. 6 months down the road they have some ideas.
 
The good news is, I’ll bet flu deaths are down roughly 100%. :rolleyes:
 
SoonerAviator said:
It also falls prey to the law of averages, which doesn't take into account the fact that the majority of those who have perished from C-19 are of retirement age and weren't contributing much to the economy in terms of GDP or buying up consumer goods/services. Those living on fixed incomes aren't typically going out and making large purchases to invest back into the economy. So applying the $9.3M lifetime benefit per person holds as an average, but most of that value is earned in the working years, so the first 20yrs and the last 20yrs are likely of lesser "economic value" if we want to look at it through that lens, morbid as it may be.
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Ah, but that elder person was spending our economic future with medicare, and also every penny that comes in goes out. They really have no savings. In addition, roughly 70% of our economy is consumer based; assuming memory servers, over 2/3 of consumer spending is not large or material purchases. A quick search did not let me find a current set of numbers though. So yeah, they do have an outsized impact.

Tim
 
steingar said:
The other bit of good news is the death toll is going down because MDs are getting better at treating it. A lot of folks died at first because no one knew what to do. 6 months down the road they have some ideas.
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There are MDs that don't know how to treat a lot of things, many those things have been known for decades.
 
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