Who's buying planes.

[Morgan3820]

I purchased my Cherokee right before the shutdown. I have been offered 20% more than I paid for it. I would sell it, but to buy the step up plane would cost me dearly. So I fly my 120kt Cherokee on LONG cross countries that would be better handled by a 150kt plane (that's what I keep telling myself).

We have 3 businesses. Two never skipped a beat. One had a drop of 90% month over month.(March/April) It has steadily come back, but it's nowhere near what it was before. Housing around DFW is nuts, and lumber (which I use for one of my businesses) is at all time highs, if you can even get it (The wood product we buy hasn't been available in 4 months) My shipping costs from overseas has doubled this year, and right now you can't get a container loaded in Asia because there isn't any room available on the ships.

One of my customers is Hunting related, he will have his best year ever, and he was shut down for two months.

It's a crazy market for sure. We broke ground on a new warehouse that we had delayed because of Covid. My big worry is that the whole thing will tank next year.

Yup $80K pickup trucks? crazy. I fear the higher it goes, the harder it will fall. Fortunately, I don't have to buy or sell anything. I would like a newer truck but I can make do with what I have. I am not paying $15K for a 10 yr. old F-150 with 160K miles.

 

[ETres]

"Buying," my ass - I'm selling!

 

[Pascal Forget]

It's been crazy here too. There are no parking spots available anymore at my municipal airport. Hangars are being built, business people are purchasing SR22s, DA42s and DA62s for regional air travel. There is a huge WWII era hangar for sale for peanuts though, but prospective buyers won't touch it with a ten foot pole because of the soil contamination.

As for myself, the money I saved by not being able to go scuba diving a few times in the caribbean this year has been spent on upgrades for my airplane.

 

[MacFly]

I purchased my Cherokee right before the shutdown. I have been offered 20% more than I paid for it. I would sell it, but to buy the step up plane would cost me dearly. So I fly my 120kt Cherokee on LONG cross countries that would be better handled by a 150kt plane (that's what I keep telling myself).

We have 3 businesses. Two never skipped a beat. One had a drop of 90% month over month.(March/April) It has steadily come back, but it's nowhere near what it was before. Housing around DFW is nuts, and lumber (which I use for one of my businesses) is at all time highs, if you can even get it (The wood product we buy hasn't been available in 4 months) My shipping costs from overseas has doubled this year, and right now you can't get a container loaded in Asia because there isn't any room available on the ships.

One of my customers is Hunting related, he will have his best year ever, and he was shut down for two months.

It's a crazy market for sure. We broke ground on a new warehouse that we had delayed because of Covid. My big worry is that the whole thing will tank next year.

I bought my plane, reasonably good deal, in September. I figure that when the second COVID wave sweeps through (as it appears to be starting right now), its market value will increase a lot by spring.

 

[Shepherd]

Maybe i picked a wrong time to start looking for a plane.........

You and me, both.
I have been to two places in two weeks to find what were, essentially, smoldering piles of poo.
A third plane was flyable but needed a wing tank replaced. Six gallons of usable fuel does not a viable aircraft make.
Trying again on Saturday.

 

[wayne]

As for myself, the money I saved by not being able to go scuba diving a few times in the caribbean this year has been spent on upgrades for my airplane.

That stop in spending in many categories is why many people have more money for buying things. Lots of international travel has been canceled. My wife and I were going to take a two week trip to Europe in May, including our first flight in International First/Business class (lay-down flat seats) and we had tickets for the French Open in Chatrier (main court) so we could see Rafa play. So, yeah we had several thousands of dollars not spent. My parents had several trips canceled in 2020, plus they stopped going out to eat.

With many things people were spending money on put on hold they had the money to spend on other things. That may not buy a plane, but it can help, or it can help buy new furniture, cars, wave runners, etc.

 

[WDD]

The club I just joined had bought a nice 182 N for $80,000 back in March. Low time engine, 430W, new leather seats, etc. One person said he wouldn’t have bought it - too much money. I offered to him that it was a stunning deal compared to what I see today. Funny how things change so quickly.

 

[brcase]

Had Cub Crafter Rep tell me that when the economy goes down, their sales tend to go up. Often the conversations go like, “We aren’t going to upgrade the GII to a GIII this year so, lets get a cub for some fun flying”

The other conversation I have heard is “We aren’t going to _____(Disney, Hawaii, Europe, etc) this year so lets buy a ________ (ATV, Boat, Airplane, etc)

Brian

 

[N1120A]

Exactly. I found that I could get an Arrow for little more than what an Archer goes for. So I got the Arrow.

Little more? Arrows particularly had their market drop out with the new commercial rules and can be had for bargains. You can find a nice Arrow for LESS than many Archers.

I purchased my Cherokee right before the shutdown. I have been offered 20% more than I paid for it. I would sell it, but to buy the step up plane would cost me dearly. So I fly my 120kt Cherokee on LONG cross countries that would be better handled by a 150kt plane (that's what I keep telling myself).

We have 3 businesses. Two never skipped a beat. One had a drop of 90% month over month.(March/April) It has steadily come back, but it's nowhere near what it was before. Housing around DFW is nuts, and lumber (which I use for one of my businesses) is at all time highs, if you can even get it (The wood product we buy hasn't been available in 4 months) My shipping costs from overseas has doubled this year, and right now you can't get a container loaded in Asia because there isn't any room available on the ships.

One of my customers is Hunting related, he will have his best year ever, and he was shut down for two months.

It's a crazy market for sure. We broke ground on a new warehouse that we had delayed because of Covid. My big worry is that the whole thing will tank next year.

You know, you might reconsider that. Cherokees are in hot demand - second only to 172s (silly, since Cherokees are better airplanes in every way, including as trainers, to 172s). You might be able to sell your Cherokee and easily upgrade to a faster plane.

I bought my plane, reasonably good deal, in September. I figure that when the second COVID wave sweeps through (as it appears to be starting right now), its market value will increase a lot by spring.

For better or worse, and without comment either way, my best estimate is that the response to the second wave will not be as severe as the first, at least in places that responded heavily the first time.

 

[MacFly]

For better or worse, and without comment either way, my best estimate is that the response to the second wave will not be as severe as the first, at least in places that responded heavily the first time.

Time will tell. It doesn't really matter to me since I really like the plane and I'm not likely to sell it within that time frame anyway, but any component of increasing value may very well carry through, to some extent, to the point where I am interested in selling it.

 

[idahoflier]

Cherokees are in hot demand - second only to 172s (silly, since Cherokees are better airplanes in every way, including as trainers, to 172s).

I like Cherokees, but disagree that they're better than a C172 in every way. You can't spin them and no negative g's. They suck for aerial photography unless you can maybe get your lens through the pilot side window to get your shot. Then there's the high wing/low wing debate. I did my PPL and IR in Archers, but I own a C172...

 

[N1120A]

I like Cherokees, but disagree that they're better than a C172 in every way. You can't spin them and no negative g's. They suck for aerial photography unless you can maybe get your lens through the pilot side window to get your shot. Then there's the high wing/low wing debate. I did my PPL and IR in Archers, but I own a C172...

You can spin some Cherokees, and I'm talking about flying characteristics and learning to actually fly an airplane, as opposed to niche usage.

 

[WDD]

This is a puzzle for me. I’ve been thinking about buying a plane since I was 10. Noodled over how much I could make cutting grass, etc.

Now in 3 yrs (if I do early retirement) it could be time. But seems like planes have doubled in price in a year, matched by a surge in insurance, taxes, tie down space, no hanger space, etc.

Can’t even see more than 1 tiger listed for sale - let alone something less than $100k that still needs $40 k in a new panel.

I might have 250 hrs with instrument and commercial in 3 years - but with that not sure the insurance for a retract (arrow, cardinal rg) would be doable from what Ive read

No answers yet. Just a huge puzzle Luckily I joined a great club that is working for me for now.

 

[Snowmass]

So when supply is ramped up and finally catches demand the pandemic will be over and the market will be glutted and crash. Can you say bubble.

 

[Bill]

this is the ONLY day that comes after yesterday and before tomorrow. truly special indeed.

So when supply is ramped up and finally catches demand the pandemic will be over and the market will be glutted and crash. Can you say bubble.

And everything else.

 

[Salty]

I can’t wait for the bubble to burst. Now that the fleet got upgraded with G5’s and new waas gps due to the adsb requirements there should be a lot of capable planes for pennies on the dollar.

 

[Shepherd]

"Buying," my ass - I'm selling!

What are you selling? How much? I have a backpack full of money.

 

[WDD]

There isn’t any new supply. Just million dollar cirrus and $500 flight school Skyhawks.

Same or less supply - demand may cool but not drop - and the odd behavior of plane owners willing to let planes sit and rot vs sell the at a loss.

 

[Racerx]

Not counting on the bubble bursting, but I do think it will deflate and normalize. Maybe when the demand on flight schools drop and the cost of maintaining doesnt make economical sense.

 

[WDD]

I don’t agree - but I really want you to be right and me wrong.

 

[MacFly]

Don’t count on a bubble. People buy planes as hobbies. They won’t have to sell if they could afford to buy in first place. And there isn’t any new supply. Just million dollar cirrus and $500 flight school Skyhawks.

Same or less supply - demand may cool but not drop - and the odd behavior of plane owners willing to let planes sit and rot vs sell the at a loss.

Yeah, this. I'm sure the market will have its ups and downs, but the general trend is likely to be positive until such time as mfgrs can start making generally affordable airplanes. I'm not holding my breath. In the meantime, in that $75,000 -- $175,000 market, the same old airplanes are just being cycled and re-cycled. The market is constrained.

For me...yeah. I don't have to sell, don't want to sell, don't plan to sell, so the used market is generally irrelevant to me. Especially since the price of anything I'd exchange it for is likely to inflate right along with the value of my plane.

 

[mondtster]

Don’t count on a bubble. People buy planes as hobbies. They won’t have to sell if they could afford to buy in first place.

Those are assumptions that aren't always true. Not all airplanes are bought as toys and just like cars, houses, or anything else, some people buy them on credit or have other things purchased on credit that may require selling the plane. Look at what happened to aircraft prices in the late 2000s. People have gotten accustomed to the realigned market and now that the prices are creeping up again they're thinking things are expensive.

Back to the OP... Who is buying airplanes? Simply put, people with money or people who have money available to them (credit). Apparently there are more buyers than sellers right now and money is easy to come by. As has already been pointed out, this is not a "problem" limited to aviation. Name just about any hobby right now and you'll see similar stories.

 

[frfly172]

Hopefully I’ll be buying or trading in two weeks.

 

[Jim K]

Bubble....maybe....maybe not

.gov has "printed" a LOT of money recently, and I don't think they're done yet. I would be surprised if we don't see double digit inflation. Maybe we already are. Housing market is hot, too. Farmland.... stock market... everything headed up.

Aluminum is probably as good a precious metal as any.

 

[Racerx]

Bubble....maybe....maybe not

.gov has "printed" a LOT of money recently, and I don't think they're done yet. I would be surprised if we don't see double digit inflation. Maybe we already are. Housing market is hot, too. Farmland.... stock market... everything headed up.

Aluminum is probably as good a precious metal as any.

Aluminum prices haven't really changed much. Depending on product I pay1.80-2.25 a lb. Pretty normal. There was a slight dip in prices from march-may IIRC but it's back to "normal". Steel price are at all time lows. When the tariffs went in place there was a buying frenzy and what I would usually pay .48 cents a lb for shot up to .75-.85 cents a lb. That same plate today I just bought for .29 cents a lb. It's a weird time.

 

[Snowmass]

My bubble comment was for all products where prices are climbing fast due to pandemic driven attitudes which will cause producers to ramp up production and then when the pandemic is over peoples buying preferences will go back to normal and there will be a surplus bubble.

 

[ETres]

What are you selling? How much? I have a backpack full of money.

A 2012 Aerotrek A240 LSA with 504 hours TT. It's not yet listed anywhere and haven't settled on a price.

 

[N1120A]

Don’t count on a bubble. People buy planes as hobbies. They won’t have to sell if they could afford to buy in first place. And there isn’t any new supply. Just million dollar cirrus and $500 flight school Skyhawks.

Same or less supply - demand may cool but not drop - and the odd behavior of plane owners willing to let planes sit and rot vs sell the at a loss.

Well, let's see where Piper goes with the Pilot series of Cherokees. Diamonds are also out there, and are actually better personal planes than they are trainers.

 

[Morgan3820]

So when supply is ramped up and finally catches demand the pandemic will be over and the market will be glutted and crash. Can you say bubble.

What is this ramped up supply that you speak of? There are lots new boats, motorcycles, trucks, etc that continue to be built. But, I am guessing that at least as many aircraft get destroyed as built new each year. And can you compare a $750K Cirrus with an $80K Piper? How much is a new Piper? $400K?
Maybe if the economy really collapses and nobody is buying anything at all.

 

[YKA]

Once interest rates go up some, those who have over extended themselves will be desperate to sell those boats, RVs, planes. This has been going on for a long time, in almost all markets, not just aircraft. I bought my house for much less than the cost to build it, when the original owners couldn't afford to keep it. Many people think that they are richer, than they truly are. $1,607,000 to buy the land, build the home and shop, landscape it all, then over extended, lost it all 21 months later. Great deal for me, terrible for them. My boat is a similar story, 7 months old, like new condition, they couldn't afford to keep it. This will happen to planes to I am certain, give it a year. Too many people get in over their heads.

 

[guzziguy]

Working on my IR/Comm at the moment in my upgraded Arrow. Once I'm done I'll be putting it on the market for something a bit quicker.

 

[Unkljohn]

I purchased my Cherokee right before the shutdown. I have been offered 20% more than I paid for it. I would sell it, but to buy the step up plane would cost me dearly. So I fly my 120kt Cherokee on LONG cross countries that would be better handled by a 150kt plane (that's what I keep telling myself).

We have 3 businesses. Two never skipped a beat. One had a drop of 90% month over month.(March/April) It has steadily come back, but it's nowhere near what it was before. Housing around DFW is nuts, and lumber (which I use for one of my businesses) is at all time highs, if you can even get it (The wood product we buy hasn't been available in 4 months) My shipping costs from overseas has doubled this year, and right now you can't get a container loaded in Asia because there isn't any room available on the ships.

One of my customers is Hunting related, he will have his best year ever, and he was shut down for two months.

It's a crazy market for sure. We broke ground on a new warehouse that we had delayed because of Covid. My big worry is that the whole thing will tank next year.

What kind of lumber do you use? I make lumber for a living.

 

[cowtowner]

#1 SS Yellow pine 2x10’s 16’ long.

 

[flyingron]

I bought one of these USB turntables probably about ten years ago now with the idea of digitizing a few of the albums I didn't have on CD. It's never even been out of the box.

 

[Oldmanb777]

Once interest rates go up some, those who have over extended themselves will be desperate to sell those boats, RVs, planes. This has been going on for a long time, in almost all markets, not just aircraft. I bought my house for much less than the cost to build it, when the original owners couldn't afford to keep it. Many people think that they are richer, than they truly are. $1,607,000 to buy the land, build the home and shop, landscape it all, then over extended, lost it all 21 months later. Great deal for me, terrible for them. My boat is a similar story, 7 months old, like new condition, they couldn't afford to keep it. This will happen to planes to I am certain, give it a year. Too many people get in over their heads.

in a year, maybe I will have gotten rid of some realestate (at a ridiculous price) and be in the market for a plane. But still probably no place to keep it around here. $15 a gallon for 100LL could help too. that's not far away. Adjustable rate mortgages will sink most people. The smart ones have fixed interest rates, so higher cost of money will be good for them.
Who knows, but maybe there will be some bargains on light planes in the next year or two. I hope so.