What If: One of the Big 4 US Airlines Went Under...

Sinistar

Sinistar

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Brad
Gosh I hope this is purely theoretical for all kinds of reasons, especially for people's jobs and having everyone having travel choices. However, what if one of the big 4 went under. What would happen regarding pilots/unions? What would happen to all the planes? Many will say the govt won't let it happen - got it. But what if it did happen....and which airline of the big 4 would it be?

The guys at the airport were talking about this last night after flying. It hadn't even crossed my mind. They had no problem speculating where the planes would end up!
 
Well the airplanes, gates, equipment and all of the skilled labor don’t vanish. My best guess is someone else comes along and starts a new airline to replace the failed business or others will grow in the vacuum. Probably a combination of the two. It wouldn’t be then end of anything other than a poorly managed business.
 
Most likely there would be 3 major airlines and not much else would change for anyone.
 
The $64k question is whether there is going to be a need for the amount of commercial air carrier capacity, domestic or global, there was going into the virus lockdown.

Nobody really knows because nobody knows exactly how this virus will behave or whether there will be a remedy for it (vaccine or drug cocktail).
And who knows how future income recovery will translate into marginal propensity to consume air travel. It's all a crap shoot right now.

I suspect we are going to see a reduction of capacity in many, many sectors of the economy (crude oil is the current poster child)...and everything related to the travel and hospitality industry appears particularly vulnerable.

One thing of which I am certain. I won't be taking my barber for granted any more.
 
nauga said:
Braniff, Continental, TWA, United, Pan Am, Northwest, Delta, US Air, US Air (double bonus)...what was the question? :D

Nauga,
and folding money
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My dad was one of the Braniff casualties in the early 80's. Senior captain for the type he flew. When he finally did get an employment offer with Piedmont, his seniority was 50-60% what it was with Braniff and a significant reduction in pay. He refused the offer and hung up his wings to start his own business.
 
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nauga said:
Braniff, Continental, TWA, United, Pan Am, Northwest, Delta, US Air, US Air (double bonus)...what was the question? :D

Nauga,
and folding money
Click to expand...

Delta? Shirley you jest.
 
Maybe we can pitch in and get a sweet, late model EMB-175...

Yank out those fart receptacles and put in some recliners and a theater room...
 
if a specific one in the list above files for bankruptcy.. the only loss would be mine and other people like me (stocks)
and the management of that airlines would get a fat check
then they will be back to normal

rinse and repeat
 
AggieMike88 said:
My dad was one of the Braniff casualties in the early 80's. Senior captain for the type he flew. When he finally did get an employment offer with Piedmont, his seniority was 50-60% what it was with Braniff and a significant reduction in pay. He refused the offer and hung up his wings to start his own business.
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This didn't happen in College Station by any chance.?? I knew two former Braniff guys that did just that.
 
If airlines want to restore confidence. Even though not perfect, get the feds to use the 15 minute quick test on every person entering a commercial airport.
Or require a test to be completed within the previous 24 hours of entering the airport.
It will be a hassle, but it will bring about a dramatic increase in confidence in airline travel.

Same could be done for mass transit but due to practical reasons would need to be weekly until a local hot spot occurs in which case you switch to daily.

Tim

Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk
 
I can't name the "big 4", much less tell them apart lately.

Let them all consolidate under AA or Delta for all I care. Or congomerate under some new banner. "Fee Airlines" seems reasonable. I bet they all groaned at the missed opportunity when Frontier started charging extra for access to seats with nobody in the middle spot.

United seems like the bottom of the 4 to me, and I can only name these three. :D Maybe they can "adios" the undisclosed settlement to Dr Dao in the Bankruptcy.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
Well the airplanes, gates, equipment and all of the skilled labor don’t vanish. My best guess is someone else comes along and starts a new airline to replace the failed business or others will grow in the vacuum. Probably a combination of the two. It wouldn’t be then end of anything other than a poorly managed business.
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Vacuum? In air travel May 2020?
 
Tarheelpilot said:
I don’t know. Do you? May I borrow your crystal ball?
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Well in May 2020 there’s definitely not much of a vacuum! But yeah, in 2021 it’s anyone’s guess where demand will be.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
I don’t know. Do you? May I borrow your crystal ball?
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You don’t need a crystal ball to figure out that air travel will not rise back to what it was in a year, if ever.
 
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nauga said:
Braniff, Continental, TWA, United, Pan Am, Northwest, Delta, US Air, US Air (double bonus)...what was the question? :D

Nauga,
and folding money
Click to expand...

You can't count ones that merged or were absorbed by other airlines. If you did you'd have to add another couple of dozen: Piedmont, Ozark, Allegheny, Frontier, Texas International, People Express, National, Northeast...

Of the ones that up and ceased operating: Braniff, Pan Am, and Eastern were the biggies. A bunch of smaller ones failed: Midway, Presidential, Atlantic Coast (Independence Air), ATA
 
Salty said:
You don’t need a crystal ball to figure out that air travel will not rise back to what it was in year, if ever.
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You would if you claim to know there wouldn’t be any unmet demand for travel after a major airline shut down and the remainder had shrunk by an average of 30% trying to reduce costs to become profitable. It becomes even more challenging to predict when you separate international and domestic. Several ULCC companies are trying to position themselves to grow into market space abandoned by larger companies that have been crippled by losses on international routes.

I’m not saying you are wrong. I’m saying you would need a crystal ball to know.

the uncertainty of the situation makes the bailout of airline operations even more suspect in my opinion. It may be the tax payers have dumped hundreds of millions into companies that will still fail. It’s moronic.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
You would if you claim to know there wouldn’t be any unmet demand for travel after a major airline shut down and the remainder had shrunk by an average of 30% trying to reduce costs to become profitable. It becomes even more challenging to predict when you separate international and domestic. Several ULCC companies are trying to position themselves to grow into market space abandoned by larger companies that have been crippled by losses on international routes.

I’m not saying you are wrong. I’m saying you would need a crystal ball to know.

the uncertainty of the situation makes the bailout of airline operations even more suspect in my opinion. It may be the tax payers have dumped hundreds of millions into companies that will still fail. It’s moronic.
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Good thing that's not even close to what I "claimed".
 
MuseChaser said:
Me neither... of course, I've been cutting my own hair for the past 42 years...
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Me too!

It started when I lived somewhere 40 miles away from the nearest barber, who had a habit of shutting down his shop whenever he felt like it even if he had appointments scheduled for that day. He also wasn't an especially good barber even when he was there. One day after driving the 40 miles to find he wasn't there, I bought a home haircut kit and a hand mirror at Ames, found it wasn't all that difficult to cut my own hair, and haven't paid for a haircut since.

Rich
 
tspear said:
If airlines want to restore confidence. Even though not perfect, get the feds to use the 15 minute quick test on every person entering a commercial airport.
Or require a test to be completed within the previous 24 hours of entering the airport.
It will be a hassle, but it will bring about a dramatic increase in confidence in airline travel.

Same could be done for mass transit but due to practical reasons would need to be weekly until a local hot spot occurs in which case you switch to daily.

Tim

Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

They'd probably need a 15-second test to make that realistic when traffic picks back up. A 15-minute test means each machine can do four tests per hour. They don't even want to give you free drinking water anymore unless you break out a debit card. I doubt they're going to invest in a bazillion test machines.

They'd also need people allowed by law to administer the test. Then they'd have to deal with all the people who faint if it's blood-based, along with the risk of lawsuits from the people who claim that the pain was too bad, or that the finger got infected and can't play the violin at the philharmonic anymore.

It's not a bad idea, but I don't think it's very practical until there's a truly instant test that doesn't involve blood, and that can be legally administered by someone low-wage.

Rich
 
Salty said:
Good thing that's not even close to what I "claimed".
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What are you saying? I read your posts again. I responded to your question of a vacuum and then you responded saying it was obvious the industry might never recover to pre corona demand.

I’m just saying you have no idea. Like everyone else. We can accurately say that demand today is very low. Tomorrow it’s a pretty solid bet it will still suck.

broad statements and predictions more than a few months out are educated guesses at best.


Apologies if I miss understood your reply
 
Tarheelpilot said:
What are you saying? I read your posts again. I responded to your question of a vacuum and then you responded saying it was obvious the industry might never recover to pre corona demand.

I’m just saying you have no idea. Like everyone else. We can accurately say that demand today is very low. Tomorrow it’s a pretty solid bet it will still suck.

broad statements and predictions more than a few months out are educated guesses at best.


Apologies if I miss understood your reply
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All I'm saying is there is no vacuum today. Quite the opposite. A lot has to happen before anybody needs to worry about a vacuum. Even if all 4 majors disappeared today the demand side would barely notice. Talk of a new airline spinning up to replace one is beyond crystal ball talk, it's unicorn hunting.
 
Salty said:
All I'm saying is there is no vacuum today. Quite the opposite. A lot has to happen before anybody needs to worry about a vacuum. Even if all 4 majors disappeared today the demand side would barely notice. Talk of a new airline spinning up to replace one is beyond crystal ball talk, it's unicorn hunting.
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I never said there was a vacuum today. I also did not place a time frame on any growth to meet demand in the wake of a major airline failing. You assumed those things.

To be more explicit in response to the OP question.

If a major airline fails then that company will cease to operate. The remainder of the industry will keep on going without missing a beat and will respond to market demands. If there is unmet demand the industry will grow to meet said demand.

I’m working for my 4th airline now. Half of the aviation companies I have worked for are no longer in business. I stopped looking for unicorns a long ****ing time ago.
 
RJM62 said:
They'd probably need a 15-second test to make that realistic when traffic picks back up. A 15-minute test means each machine can do four tests per hour. They don't even want to give you free drinking water anymore unless you break out a debit card. I doubt they're going to invest in a bazillion test machines.

They'd also need people allowed by law to administer the test. Then they'd have to deal with all the people who faint if it's blood-based, along with the risk of lawsuits from the people who claim that the pain was too bad, or that the finger got infected and can't play the violin at the philharmonic anymore.

It's not a bad idea, but I don't think it's very practical until there's a truly instant test that doesn't involve blood, and that can be legally administered by someone low-wage.

Rich
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Yup. Why I also said maybe a test in the previous 24 hours. I also figure only the TSA could do it, for the reasons you state. Note, I picked 24 hours since so far general statements by the scientists is it takes between 2 days and 14 days for symptoms and likely virus shedding to occur.

Tim

Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk
 
Tarheelpilot said:
I never said there was a vacuum today. I also did not place a time frame on any growth to meet demand in the wake of a major airline failing. You assumed those things.

To be more explicit in response to the OP question.

If a major airline fails then that company will cease to operate. The remainder of the industry will keep on going without missing a beat and will respond to market demands. If there is unmet demand the industry will grow to meet said demand.

I’m working for my 4th airline now. Half of the aviation companies I have worked for are no longer in business. I stopped looking for unicorns a long ****ing time ago.
Click to expand...
You enjoy building straw men and moving goalposts, eh?
 
RJM62 said:
It's not a bad idea, but I don't think it's very practical until there's a truly instant test that doesn't involve blood, and that can be legally administered by someone low-wage.
Rich
Click to expand...

I think the closest we'll get to that are the contactless temperature readings we're already starting to see put into use. Far from perfect, and they can't distinguish the novel coronavirus from anything else that might cause a fever, but hard to beat for cheap/fast/easy/no skilled labor required, so I doubt they'll go away.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
No. I answered a question with an honest answer. You called me out and made assertions that you can’t support them told me I was looking for unicorns. I think you’re just full of it frankly.
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Yep. I'm full of things you stuffed in that I never said. lol
 
Tarheelpilot said:
Like what?

edit: not a rhetorical question. I’ve reread the posts. I don’t see where I added anything to what you said.
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Sorry, not going to play fetch with you
 
tspear said:
If airlines want to restore confidence. Even though not perfect, get the feds to use the 15 minute quick test on every person entering a commercial airport.
Or require a test to be completed within the previous 24 hours of entering the airport.
It will be a hassle, but it will bring about a dramatic increase in confidence in airline travel.

Same could be done for mass transit but due to practical reasons would need to be weekly until a local hot spot occurs in which case you switch to daily.

Tim

Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Kind of like TSA after 9/11/2001?
 
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