I hope they can work this out, but I agree on getting your parts asap.I feel for the folks with ongoing kits, the company is unlikely to survive this because their debt service will be near credit card rates. If you need components to finish a kit, I would not procrastinate the order.
what really hurt, and nobody is talking about it, is that the price of QB kits has alwas been to low. think of how a QB kit is done. a bunch of standard kits are loaded into a container and sent to the builder. they build them into QB status and load them on containers and ship them back to vans. when covid hit, sales went up over 200 percent. a large percentage of those were QB kits at a set price. for those that don't know it, container costs went up over 400 percent almost overnight and shipping delays went through the roof. containers that cost 8000 became 25000 or more very quickly. couple that with the rise in costs of steel,aluminum, plastics and just about everything else and those kits that were at a fixed price were now at a loss. couple that with the primer problem and LCP the losses mounted quickly.What hurt them more? Bad laser rivet holes, or the bad primer?
Rivet holes. Even a hundred bad fuselage or wing QB's would have "only" been a couple of million dollars. The laser stuff could be between $5 and $10 Mil, best I can tell.What hurt them more? Bad laser rivet holes, or the bad primer?
Very true. My own company saw shipping containers to/from the pacific skyrocket by hundreds of percentshipping delays went through the roof. containers that cost 8000 became 25000 or more very quickly.
Not in the curated spaces sure, but it's talked about plenty in the spaces where you can disagree with the politburo without getting cancelled. And yes, I agree with your assessment of the boat anchor economics of many of their offerings.what really hurt, and nobody is talking about it, is that the price of QB kits has alwas been to low.
My bet would be that Mr. Via will see the issue of the QB economics that we see, and kill the option...
QB's are a huge part of the business today. They accelerate project pace at a nominal cost. They just have to be properly managed.Just price QB where it needs to be to make a reasonable profit and let the market decide.
I've been wondering the same for a while nowIs QB assembly in US still not economically viable, even with shipping costs so high?
i dont see killing the option. there are plenty of people with disposable income that rank time well above the money that will by QB kits even at a higher price. the question is, what price is really needed to make it profitable?Not in the curated spaces sure, but it's talked about plenty in the spaces where you can disagree with the politburo without getting cancelled. And yes, I agree with your assessment of the boat anchor economics of many of their offerings.
My bet would be that Mr. Via will see the issue of the QB economics that we see, and kill the option... along several other obvious low-hanging fruits in said reorganization.
Is QB assembly in US still not economically viable, even with shipping costs so high?
Their founder is providing the credit line. I doubt he'll be that usurious.I feel for the folks with ongoing kits, the company is unlikely to survive this because their debt service will be near credit card rates. If you need components to finish a kit, I would not procrastinate the order.
Sell the rights and development staff for the 15 to a group of investors or another company. That would streamline operations and help save the company.
With a ~32% price increase announced on kits and most parts. I was wondering about the 'custom packaging' aspect when they started asking for builder numbers when ordering certain parts. I think that's a smart move to speed shipment processing and inventory management. I may, however, be in the minority.Someone at VAF posted that kit orders are back online with new pricing. Changes from before include no additions or deletions to kit orders...
At the risk of repeating myself across threads, at least my RV-3 and RV-4 plans have sufficient details to enable building from scratch. What used to be "if desired" may become "if required."...no RV-3 kits as yet.
I‘m not certain of anything, but I’m glad i no longer own a kit, And I will not be ordering from them any time soon. And yes, I had still planned on building a vans one day.How many of the people here certain that Vans won't survive this have seen the balance sheet?
The product thrived at the current price point. Between the loss of reputation and the increase in kit costs Vans may survive in some capacity but will likely never be as big as they once were. Think about all the orders they are losing out on right now because of the situation they put themselves in. Those orders were the future of the company. At some point they will enter a downward spiral due far fewer new orders coming in. The question is if they will be able to scale back and downsize quick enough to catch the downward spiral before it gets completely out of control and they are no longer able to recover.The product line will survive one way or another. RV’s products are too large of a GA market to let them fade into the past. Even if the current ownership collapses I’m certain there will be plenty of investors waiting in the shadows. Owners on VAF were even discussing taking donations! I don’t know the details of the Chapter 11 agreement but even if their orders are a fraction of what they were they should be able to return to profitability.
Just as long as RVG doesn't start an OnlyFans page to raise funds.I can’t find anything about this on FanDuel. I was gonna take Vans -0.5
The lack of QA and basic incoming inspection on the work they were getting from suppliers.What hurt them more? Bad laser rivet holes, or the bad primer?
guarantee they do not have a accurate idea of what their cost are, it’s not uncommon.Just price QB where it needs to be to make a reasonable profit and let the market decide.
I think what will hurt them more than the price increase is the new deposit terms. For example the new price on a full rv14 kit is $61,500 with a $21,500 deposit. I cant fathom paying that much and still having to wait 1-2 years to get it. Maybe that lead time will decrease to 4-6 months eventually but even people who put 5k down for their kit are seeing the ramification of spending money so far ahead of taking delivery.The product thrived at the current price point. Between the loss of reputation and the increase in kit costs Vans may survive in some capacity but will likely never be as big as they once were. Think about all the orders they are losing out on right now because of the situation they put themselves in. Those orders were the future of the company. At some point they will enter a downward spiral due far fewer new orders coming in. The question is if they will be able to scale back and downsize quick enough to catch the downward spiral before it gets completely out of control and they are no longer able to recover.
*shrugs* Let 'em.I think what will hurt them more than the price increase is the new deposit terms. For example the new price on a full rv14 kit is $61,500 with a $21,500 deposit. I cant fathom paying that much and still having to wait 1-2 years to get it. Maybe that lead time will decrease to 4-6 months eventually but even people who put 5k down for their kit are seeing the ramification of spending money so far ahead of taking delivery.
That poster will forever be seared into my brain pan for the ass-chewing I received in flight school as I stared at that f'n poster on the wall behind the LCDR giving said ass-chewing.*shrugs* Let 'em.
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If the founder is the credit it line, there is no reason to declare Chapter 11.Their founder is providing the credit line. I doubt he'll be that usurious.
Paul
Not true at all. The founder is retired and likely wants some protection for the money he is fronting the business. Chapter 11 puts him at the top of the creditor list if things go sideways. Second, chapter 11 allows them to break all the existing contracts they have with the builders as well as their vendors. If they had a way to recover financially without breaking those contracts and being sued for breech of contract they would have done so already.If the founder is the credit it line, there is no reason to declare Chapter 11.
Breaking contracts = screwing over their current creditors and suppliers, and maybe some of the customers. Anyone who would knowing start a kit from a chapter 11 company is nuts.Not true at all. The founder is retired and likely wants some protection for the money he is fronting the business. Chapter 11 puts him at the top of the creditor list if things go sideways. Second, chapter 11 allows them to break all the existing contracts they have with the builders as well as their vendors. If they had a way to recover financially without breaking those contracts and being sued for breech of contract they would have done so already.
Arguably, anyone who would build an airplane from a kit is nuts. It's a matter of degree, not kind. There are so many marginally insane decisions you have to make between your first inkling of building a kit plane and your first flight that the kit supplier's bankruptcy court record seems like a whisper on a scream.Breaking contracts = screwing over their current creditors and suppliers, and maybe some of the customers. Anyone who would knowing start a kit from a chapter 11 company is nuts.
If I were a builder I'd far prefer they restructure the contracts (break them and set new prices), than just file for liquidation and disappear entirely. Neither is a good outcome and both show the company sucks at managing their business, but a "we're gone forever" is a lot worse than reorg.Breaking contracts = screwing over their current creditors and suppliers, and maybe some of the customers.
Left alone, those people are already up the creek. Chapter 11 allows them a path to recovery (or MORE recovery).Breaking contracts = screwing over their current creditors and suppliers, and maybe some of the customers.
Bankruptcy is in the Constitution. It's part of the deal when you enter into contracts/credit arrangements in this country.If I were a builder I'd far prefer they restructure the contracts (break them and set new prices), than just file for liquidation and disappear entirely. Neither is a good outcome and both show the company sucks at managing their business, but a "we're gone forever" is a lot worse than reorg.
The risk is that those contracts get restructured, builders pay a bunch more money to stay in the line for a kit and then the company still goes under or is bought out and those new contracts are now worthless. I'm not building an RV but I wouldn't give the company any more money until my kit is complete and ready to ship. The scenario Van's is going through is one of the.major reasons I built a sonex. The A model plans included every detail needed to build every part. If the company went under I could still finish my build.If I were a builder I'd far prefer they restructure the contracts (break them and set new prices), than just file for liquidation and disappear entirely. Neither is a good outcome and both show the company sucks at managing their business, but a "we're gone forever" is a lot worse than reorg.
Breaking contracts = screwing over their current creditors and suppliers, and maybe some of the customers. Anyone who would knowing start a kit from a chapter 11 company is nuts.
True.Bankruptcy is in the Constitution. It's part of the deal when you enter into contracts/credit arrangements in this country.