Tesla Model 3 - Now I get the hype.

Lol. You’ve been posting on here long enough to know better... rich will have hard data to back up his position on EV. Not emotionally based drivel like you just challenged him with ... lol
What emotional based?
And it is why I asked for the hard data.

Tim
 
I don’t think there will be an EV that does 100% for most people that don’t live in a city like NYC/DC/major metropolis.

Of course there will be. Imagine 850 mile range and ability to recharge in 30 minutes. That will come very, very close to serving 100% of drivers.

At least that’s how I see it going in the next 20+ years or so.

It won’t take 20 years.
 
Of course there will be. Imagine 850 mile range and ability to recharge in 30 minutes. That will come very, very close to serving 100% of drivers.



It won’t take 20 years.

I meant more along the lines with what is available currently. I used 20 years because I figure it’ll take at least that long for the average household to cycle through buying a new car and having enough EV models available (it’s going to take more than the current 4 or 5 choices). I figure in 20 years, the EVs will have made a sizeable dent in the average American household by then. I know I’m not running out to buy one any time soon, the payback just isn’t there.
 
One other downside is that they don't sound the same as some fire breathing V8's:)
Wouldn't be too difficult to tie a sound chip, amp, big speakers into the accelerator potentiometer.

But even without the rumble and roar, the launch and acceleration experience from a Model 3 is something better over a big block ICE
 
Rich,

Wow, you need to fly more and drive less :D
Although an EV could work for you, seems likely it would be more hassle than it is worth.
I am in the opposite end of the spectrum. I drive about 400 miles a month; except during ski season when I do two weekends a month average driving three hundred miles; where I need my AWD. The EV solutions for this are just way to expensive; or add to much time to already long day.

Tim

My flying is limited to ultralights these days. Lots of fun, but not very practical.

Electric doesn't make sense economically for me right now, either. Even the KIA plug-in hybrid numbers didn't work out when all was said and done (although it would have solved the recharging dilemma).

Part of the reason is that I gravitate toward simple, inexpensive cars. That tendency has been helped along of late by my strong preference for manual transmission, which increasingly is only available on "Base" models. That means the comparison begins with a very low baseline price. I'm also a bit of a hypermiler and always get much better fuel economy than EPA estimates -- sometimes more than 25 percent better -- on ICE-powered vehicles. That also shrinks any savings I might enjoy from switching to electric or hybrid.

My 2016 Kia Soul is EPA rated at 26 / 30. I find it hard to believe that anyone could drive poorly enough to get those numbers. On "summer" gas and tires, I get 36 / 42 on 89-octane or 33 / 41 on 87-octane, with only minimal hypermiling. Even for purely local driving (meaning just in the village) I get 28. If I use ethanol-free gas, the numbers are even higher.

I keep OCD-like maintenance records of any equipment I own, including cars, so I'm confident in the numbers. I even make log entries for tire pressure adjustments or windshield wiper changes. When I sell or trade in a car, I hand over the maintenance records. The buyer or dealer typically looks at me like I'm some sort of nut.

But those records also enable me to do TCO analyses with very fine granularity. I have about seven years of warranty left and no burning desire to replace the car before then. I anticipate that by the time the warranty expires, electric will have progressed a long way. So I'll take my ten years of records and do the math again when the time comes. Maybe it will make sense then.

Rich
 
And today's kids are missing out of the right of passage that was the looooong road trip in the very back of the Pontiac Grand Safari Station Wagon

For me it was Connecticut to Colorado and back in an Oldsmobile Vista Cruiser! :)

I miss those days.

Dave, for me it was the Boston area to eastern Washington, via the south, in an Olds Vista Cruiser. 7000 miles (and I did much of the driving). Pulling a tent trailer. Summer of 1969. Watched the moon landing at a Navy buddy's of my dad's from WW II in Albuquerque, NM on the way.
 
Rich,

I stopped keeping those kind of records a long ago. Now it just sort of goes in a general bucket.
But yeah, does not make sense for me now either. I am likely three to four years away from needing another car when I will likely pass my Subaru to my daughter. At that point I hope there is a base model AWD EV solution for me that is affordable. Otherwise I may buy used and try and kick the problem down a few years.

The other wrinkle I wonder about is if my wife and I could get away with one car, and use Uber for the rare times we need two cars.

Tim

Sent from my SM-J737T using Tapatalk
 
I don’t think there will be an EV that does 100% for most people that don’t live in a city like NYC/DC/major metropolis. The majority of US households that currently have 2 vehicles will likely have 1 EV and one ICE/Hybrid vehicle. The ICE will handle the long range trips and heavy hauling while the EV will cover the in-town and short range trips. At least that’s how I see it going in the next 20+ years or so.

It'll start that way. That's how it started for me.

It's not gonna take 20 years, though, at least not for those who own homes (and thus aren't subject to the whims of landlords or employers for convenient "slow" charging). I got my first PHEV on a whim, and very quickly got to hating it when the ICE kicked in. I can't wait to be all electric... And sales of electric cars are accelerating, so as more people discover how much better it is, and talk to their friends, that trend will continue.

I do hope someone besides Tesla gets their collective heads out of their butts and puts together a charging network... But even so, in 20 years you'll probably see something more like one BEV commuter and one PHEV for travel, and they'll generally only buy gas on the road trips. The commuter can be one of the many EVs that's already out, the travel vehicle can be something like the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid (which is a PHEV with a pretty respectable electric range) that will handle all of the daily driving needs on the battery.

If the alternative charging network comes to fruition, or if someone takes Tesla up on their offer to join up with the Supercharger network, it'll be much more likely to have a majority of all-EV households in 20 years.

Of course there will be. Imagine 850 mile range and ability to recharge in 30 minutes. That will come very, very close to serving 100% of drivers.

Why 850 miles? Who ever does 850 miles without stopping? How many ICE vehicles can even do that? 850 miles is WAY overboard. You'd lose a lot of your daily driving efficiency to carry around that massive, heavy battery all the time! And you certainly wouldn't need to charge in 30 minutes at that point, because after driving 850 miles non-stop, you're gonna be sleeping for a lot longer than that before you go on your next 850-mile leg.

There are plenty of ICEVs that can't even go 400 miles... 400 miles with 10-15 minutes to recharge is as far as it needs to go.

I meant more along the lines with what is available currently. I used 20 years because I figure it’ll take at least that long for the average household to cycle through buying a new car and having enough EV models available (it’s going to take more than the current 4 or 5 choices).

There are WAY more than "4 or 5 choices" already - I count 21 purely electric models, *not* counting ones that have been discontinued for a while (Mitsubishi i-MiEV), are from manufacturers not usually seen in the US (BYD, CODA), were produced only in limited numbers (Toyota Rav4 EV), or are a "lunchbox" (smart ForTwo etc., hat tip to Achmed the Dead Terrorist and his creator Jeff Dunham).

Audi (e-Tron)
BMW (i3)
Chevy (Bolt, Spark EV)
Fiat (500e)
Ford (Focus Electric)
Honda (Clarity, Fit EV)
Hyundai (Ioniq, Kona)
Jaguar (I-Pace)
Kia (Niro, Soul EV)
Mercedes (B-Class Electric Drive, B250e)
Nissan (Leaf)
Scion (iQ)
Tesla (Model S, Model X, Model 3)
Volkswagen (e-Golf)

And that's just the purely battery-electric vehicles. There are 32 more mainstream plug-in hybrids, most of them based on the more traditional ICEVs. BMW 3, 5, and 7 series, Ford Fusion, Volvo S60/S90/XC60/XC90, Hyundai Sonata, etc.

And I can't tell you how many are supposed to come out in 2020. I think it's "all of them."
 
And today's kids are missing out of the right of passage that was the looooong road trip in the very back of the Pontiac Grand Safari Station Wagon

For me it was Connecticut to Colorado and back in an Oldsmobile Vista Cruiser! :)

I miss those days.

Dave, for me it was the Boston area to eastern Washington, via the south, in an Olds Vista Cruiser. 7000 miles (and I did much of the driving). Pulling a tent trailer. Summer of 1969. Watched the moon landing at a Navy buddy's of my dad's from WW II in Albuquerque, NM on the way.

For me? Summer of 1986, riding in the back of my parents' green 1976 Volvo 245 DL and living in a Eureka tent for the most part (also green). Wisconsin to California and back, with stops at Yosemite, Sequoia, Grand Canyon, and some other national parks, a week in San Francisco, a few days in Vegas, a week on a houseboat on Lake Powell with my aunt, uncle, and cousins, and lots of other fun. :)

But really, in the grand scheme of things... There's nothing about that trip that would be very different today with a Tesla. We'd have just needed to get electrified campsites and/or make an extra Supercharger stop each day. My brother was 3 years old, and my sister and I were young and full of energy too, so we needed to stop a fair amount as it was.
 
Why 850 miles? Who ever does 850 miles without stopping?

Just a number that would come very, very close to meeting the 100% of driver’s needs that was proposed.

Certainly a much smaller number would meet the needs of the vast majority, especially once a better charging network is in place.
 
@flyingcheesehead The problem, for me, with your list of cars, is that they are either high-end (BMW, Audi, Tesla) or are little econo-box cars that I wouldn’t buy regardless of what range it got. There is a need in the market for an EV like a Honda Accord or a Ford Explorer that isn’t priced in the stratosphere. I don’t want some hideous chud of a car like a Honda Fit or a Mitsubishi I-whatever. Get some EV Mustangs and Chargers out there at sub-$40K prices and people will give them a look. The EV designers still seem hellbent on making most EVs stand out by being ugly.
 
There is a portion of the population that buys used (perhaps not by choice) vehicles for purely economic reasons. Sometimes well used. It's all they can afford. Whatever percentage that is, it will be a good while before EV and PHEV trickle down from an economic perspective. And total battery life will be a factor for those folks as well. Once a car hits that point, a battery pack replacement (or an engine or transmission for that matter) junks the vehicle.
 
I don’t think there will be an EV that does 100% for most people that don’t live in a city like NYC/DC/major metropolis. The majority of US households that currently have 2 vehicles will likely have 1 EV and one ICE/Hybrid vehicle. The ICE will handle the long range trips and heavy hauling while the EV will cover the in-town and short range trips. At least that’s how I see it going in the next 20+ years or so.

That's honestly what I expected to happen in our household. Instead, we take the EV ("my car") on any trips and one of us is "stuck" with the ICE vehicle ("her car") each day (the EV being preferred, but sometimes needed by one or the other). The ICE is old and depreciated enough that we'll be replacing it in a year or two. And she's already ordered an EV to replace it. Which will complete the transition so that nothing we own burns gasoline anymore. (Cars, lawn mower, snow blower, weed wacker, leaf blower, etc. Natural gas from the power company and Avgas excluded.)

I started out thinking all of those things would be "gimmicky" and we'd never get by using electric full time (especially for the car and snow blower) but, at least in our case, there hasn't been any trouble making the transition. So far. (Without solar or battery backup systems in place, we also realize that we are pretty dependent on the electric grid staying at least mostly functional.)
 
Last edited:
The grid won’t be able to handle the onslaught on EVs within the next 10 years. The mining of Lithium and Cobalt continues to destroy the environment and increasing illegal child labor in Africa. The batteries are not even close to being environmentally friendly to recycle. The increase in Co2 emissions alone just from the demand of EV manufacturing is going to send global warming thru the roof. ;)
 
Just a number that would come very, very close to meeting the 100% of driver’s needs that was proposed.

I'll just say it right now: There will never be an 850-mile EV. There simply isn't a need for it. It's the solution to a 0.1% problem, that really isn't a problem for the most part anyway: You've just gotta stop and charge it up. Make that happen quickly and in enough places, and you're done.

@flyingcheesehead The problem, for me, with your list of cars, is that they are either high-end (BMW, Audi, Tesla) or are little econo-box cars that I wouldn’t buy regardless of what range it got. There is a need in the market for an EV like a Honda Accord or a Ford Explorer that isn’t priced in the stratosphere. I don’t want some hideous chud of a car like a Honda Fit or a Mitsubishi I-whatever.

Absolutely agreed. That's one of the things I liked about my Fusion Energi: It looked just like a regular Ford Fusion except for the badging and the charge port door.

Pricing is mainly an issue right now because of battery costs and the manufacturers' desire to remain profitable while doing a HUGE amount of R&D, beginning production of motors, etc. They've been coasting on incremental updates and body styling changes for a hundred years, so this doesn't fit their model.

The EV designers still seem hellbent on making most EVs stand out by being ugly.

It's not the designers. It's the execs. They don't want to sell electric cars, for a couple big reasons:

1) The aforementioned R&D and production changeover costs. They'd rather keep selling the ICEVs that they already know how to make.
2) Pressure from their dealers, who make most of their money on maintenance.

Traditional car manufacturers don't want to build EVs. Most of those "econobox" ones are compliance cars, built to satisfy California's rules, that basically require you to build enough "zero emission" cars to be able to sell the more profitable pickups, SUVs, etc there and in the other CARB states.

So, they make hideously ugly EVs and whine that "nobody wants electric vehicles." No, nobody wants an ugly econobox that costs 3-4 times what your other econoboxes do.

The luxury brands at least can charge high enough prices to cover the battery costs, and since they've lost a LOT of customers to Tesla, they're finally taking EVs seriously. That's probably why most of the EVs that use more traditional body styles are coming from BMW and Mercedes.

There is a portion of the population that buys used (perhaps not by choice) vehicles for purely economic reasons. Sometimes well used. It's all they can afford. Whatever percentage that is, it will be a good while before EV and PHEV trickle down from an economic perspective. And total battery life will be a factor for those folks as well. Once a car hits that point, a battery pack replacement (or an engine or transmission for that matter) junks the vehicle.

True. Hopefully the manufacturers use chemistries with reasonable longevity. There are some Teslas with over 400,000 miles, and it seems like they degrade about 5% in the first 50,000 miles, maybe another 5% by 200,000 miles (by which point many cars are junked anyway), and it pretty much plateaus. So, hopefully battery replacements become as rare as major-component (engine, transmission, etc) replacements on ICEVs.
 
On the lower end of the EV cost spectrum we have the 2020 Soul EV, which has a range of 243 miles that the reviewers were able to exceed without much effot. In a peculiar way, something along those lines might actually be more attractive than a longer-range Tesla because the low cost makes it easier to justify owning a second car for long trips, or even just dealing with the charging times. I'd be more amenable to having to wait for a charge in a $35,000.00 car than a $100,000 car.

I think that's really what it comes down to in the end. If I'm going to spend luxury-car money, I don't want to be inconvenienced at all. But if I'm paying economy-car money, I might be willing to accept it.

But I'm still going to wait. At the current rate of progress, I think it would be silly not to, especially since I have a car that suits my needs and tastes quite well. It's a quirky little car, but I'm a quirky guy.

Rich
 
Last edited:
The grid won’t be able to handle the onslaught on EVs within the next 10 years. The mining of Lithium and Cobalt continues to destroy the environment and increasing illegal child labor in Africa. The batteries are not even close to being environmentally friendly to recycle. The increase in Co2 emissions alone just from the demand of EV manufacturing is going to send global warming thru the roof. ;)

Put this kid in charge of energy policy.

If we can make reactors small enough, we can equip not only homes, but electric cars with tiny on-board reactors. Even if they don't generate enough wattage to propel the cars, they would be able to charge the batteries while the cars are parked. That would overcome all the objections to EVs.

Rich
 
Put this kid in charge of energy policy.

If we can make reactors small enough, we can equip not only homes, but electric cars with tiny on-board reactors. Even if they don't generate enough wattage to propel the cars, they would be able to charge the batteries while the cars are parked. That would overcome all the objections to EVs.

Rich

Lol, I'm not sure that's the most efficient way to go about it. However, moving to where the grid is majority-nuclear is probably the best solution, long term.
 
Any grid capable of supporting air conditioners in the day, can support EVs charging at night.

Not necessarily. Even load-insensitive power sources like nuclear run hotter during high demand. The load insensitivity relates to fuel consumption, not wear on the electromechanical components. Constant operation under high load will accelerate failure.

Local grids also need cool-down periods (especially the transformers). Because most residential communities weren't designed for the kind of draw that a whole neighborhood of EV owners would use, the constant draw of air conditioning during the day and EV's at night could cause transformer failures and fires. On hot nights, the combined draw could also overload the feeders, requiring rolling brownouts or blackouts.

None of these problems are likely to come into play while EV's remain a niche product. But if they were to catch on in a major way, it would necessitate upgrades at every stage of the electric generation and distribution system.

I really don't see any way to handle the demand without expanded nuclear power, as well as major upgrades in the distribution infrastructure at all levels.

Rich
 
Asked my wife today if she would like a Tesla for her new car since she usually only drives in town locally, we take my spacious 4 door F150 for all other trips since you can actually take 4 people and luggage, she’s wants a new mustang gt350.
 
Last edited:
Asked my wife today if she would like a Tesla for her new car since she usually only drives in town locally, we take my spacious 4 door F150 for all other trips since you can actually take 4 people and luggage, she’s getting a new mustang gt350.

You should marry that woman!

I remember back in the 40's when I was thinking about an ME-262, everyone told me it was horribly unreliable, fatally dangerous, burned ridiculous amounts of fuel and had no range. Now I can take 300 of my closest friends anywhere on the planet non-stop in my 787 and it's the safest form of transportation available. Heck even the lowly PT6 in my Meridian is hyped as the most reliable engine made and that thing has a propeller! EVs are here to stay and whatever complaints you have about them either financially, environmentally or range related are going to get solved. I do miss that ME-262 though. Fantastic ramp presence.
 
Not necessarily. Even load-insensitive power sources like nuclear run hotter during high demand. The load insensitivity relates to fuel consumption, not wear on the electromechanical components. Constant operation under high load will accelerate failure.

Local grids also need cool-down periods (especially the transformers). Because most residential communities weren't designed for the kind of draw that a whole neighborhood of EV owners would use, the constant draw of air conditioning during the day and EV's at night could cause transformer failures and fires. On hot nights, the combined draw could also overload the feeders, requiring rolling brownouts or blackouts.

None of these problems are likely to come into play while EV's remain a niche product. But if they were to catch on in a major way, it would necessitate upgrades at every stage of the electric generation and distribution system.

I really don't see any way to handle the demand without expanded nuclear power, as well as major upgrades in the distribution infrastructure at all levels.

Rich

I watched this presentation the other day. Makes a good point on the limitations of renewables and the benefits of expanding nuclear.

 
I watched this presentation the other day. Makes a good point on the limitations of renewables and the benefits of expanding nuclear.


That’s a good one. Very practical explanation.
 
Not yet discussed in this thread is Elon's plan to use the Model 3 for his RoboTaxi initiative. This includes Model 3's already in the world fleet. These M3 owners could recoup their vehicle investment and then some by allowing the vehicle to be used in the autonomous network when the owners isn't using it, such as while at work.

Some news articles and a video from Tesla's recent Autonomy Day that touch on this idea.

https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/22/tesla-plans-to-launch-a-robotaxi-network-in-2020/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech...ould-make-30-000-robotaxi-network/3549652002/

 
Not yet discussed in this thread is Elon's plan to use the Model 3 for his RoboTaxi initiative. This includes Model 3's already in the world fleet. These M3 owners could recoup their vehicle investment and then some by allowing the vehicle to be used in the autonomous network when the owners isn't using it, such as while at work.

Not to mention, it would make it much easier for families to get by with one car of their own, should they choose to continue owning rather than using the RoboTaxis.

I've thought about that a lot. It'd be nice to have one car that would take my wife to work, come home, take me to work, go out and give rides for money, pick up my wife and take her home, pick me up and take me home.
 
I've thought about that a lot. It'd be nice to have one car that would take my wife to work, come home, take me to work, go out and give rides for money, pick up my wife and take her home, pick me up and take me home.

Would be even nicer to be able to fly somewhere and load your luggage in you car a day or two before, send it off, then have your car pick you up from the airport when you arrive.
 
Would be even nicer to be able to fly somewhere and load your luggage in you car a day or two before, send it off, then have your car pick you up from the airport when you arrive.
Autonomous departure of the parking stall and slowly driving to where you are standing is a feature soon to be released. So when the Full Self Driving and RoboTaxi is perfected, I could definitely see the use case you describe happening.
 
Ours would be unusable if I were towing my camper with a Tesla pickup. They’re designed for cars to park at. A lot of infrastructure would need to be built to make the pickup towing thing viable, existing network, hasn’t been built to support it.
I don't see the problem. You could park across the spaces and charge up.

That's no different than the dude with the pick-up and long camper who pulled up to the last pump in a row at U-stop this morning, blocking all the pumps in that row. He then went inside without moving the vehicle to the empty area where he didn't block pumps. Was still blocking pumps when I left.

For some of the camping, I think there are electric hook-ups, but perhaps not the places you like to go. I saw electric delivery trucks in China, but they don't do camping there, nor the sort of driving we do.
 
For some of the camping, I think there are electric hook-ups, but perhaps not the places you like to go.

I think Tesla’s can charge from a normal RV pedestal with 50A 240v service, on the left here:

42670864375_2a1fa79538_z.jpg
 
Last edited:
I think Tesla’s can charge from a normal RV pedestal with 50A 240v service, on the left here

Yes, I've done it many times. However, most of the time on a campsite that NEMA 14-50 on the left is running 208V power (2 legs of a 3 phase power source). Still works, but not nearly as fast as 240V.

It is fine for overnight, but in the days before SuperChargers I tried doing a "picnic stop" at campsites a few times, but they are so slow that it's not practical. Like half the speed of my home 240V/50A.

The middle outlet you see there is a TT-30 (110V/30A) which sadly, Tesla does not officially support (grrr...) you can draw 20A from it with an adapter though. In the case of this specific site the one on the right is directly a 110V/20A so work out the same. But 110V/15A is more common.

Also what I found in campsites is that often normal 110V/15A outlets are on such long runs of small AWG cables that they're not usable. Even if you try just drawing 10A out of them the voltage drop on them is so much that the car won't be able to use it. Even when they do work you'll get like maybe 20 miles of range/day.
 
Would be even nicer to be able to fly somewhere and load your luggage in you car a day or two before, send it off, then have your car pick you up from the airport when you arrive.

Yeah, I've thought about that even more. :)

I guess I hadn't thought about the luggage aspect, but being able to send my car ahead on a flying trip would be AWESOME.

What remains to be seen is how they decide to handle autonomous Supercharging. Creepy robot snake, or something else?


At least you know they've been thinking about and experimenting with solving that problem for a few years...

I think Tesla’s can charge from a normal RV pedestal with 50A 240v service, on the left here:

42670864375_2a1fa79538_z.jpg

Yes. The NEMA 14-50 (the one on the left) is one of the adapters that comes with the mobile charging cord that comes with every car. When I outfitted my garage, I had a 150-amp subpanel and two of those 14-50 outlets added, on separate circuits, and my EVSE is plugged into one of them. Second one was for future-proofing...
 
Any grid capable of supporting air conditioners in the day, can support EVs charging at night.

Except that in many parts of the US the AC is still running at night. It's not uncommon for it to be in the upper 70's with humidity in the mid to upper 90's at 5 am in Atlanta during the summer.

I get up daily, weekdays, at 4:45 am to run. I check the weather before I go out.

Multiple AC units and EV cars at each house might put a pretty heavy load on the system during the summer.



Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 
As an aside, that RV pedestal in the photo is at our Lenoir City Pole Barn property. Just 3 miles off I-75 west of Knoxville. Feel free to juice up your EV here if you ever need to - just give me a head’s up!
 
Except that in many parts of the US the AC is still running at night. It's not uncommon for it to be in the upper 70's with humidity in the mid to upper 90's at 5 am in Atlanta during the summer.

It's a lot easier for A/C to keep up with a lower duty cycle when the sun isn't shining on the house, though...

Multiple AC units and EV cars at each house might put a pretty heavy load on the system during the summer.

And in that instance, I would expect utilities to incentivize things that would better meet their ability to supply energy. For example, a workplace adding solar and car chargers... That way the employees wouldn't necessarily need to charge at home at night.
 
I read a study that said with our current infrastructure, the grid can support roughly 25% total EVs. With only 2% on the road right now, we’re a long way off from overloading the system.

I brought the subject up as mostly tongue and cheek. However, for those that are naive (Green New Deal) and think we can be 100 % emission free by 2030, there are significant obstacles to that goal. The first being, manufacturing of EVs produces more Co2 than ICE. Just that alone, I think would push us over the 12 year threshold of the global warming prediction. The second, if we were to be emission free with the majority of the vehicles being EV, then the grid (in its present form) would never be able to keep up.
 
Back
Top