I don’t think there will be an EV that does 100% for most people that don’t live in a city like NYC/DC/major metropolis. The majority of US households that currently have 2 vehicles will likely have 1 EV and one ICE/Hybrid vehicle. The ICE will handle the long range trips and heavy hauling while the EV will cover the in-town and short range trips. At least that’s how I see it going in the next 20+ years or so.
It'll start that way. That's how it started for me.
It's not gonna take 20 years, though, at least not for those who own homes (and thus aren't subject to the whims of landlords or employers for convenient "slow" charging). I got my first PHEV on a whim, and very quickly got to hating it when the ICE kicked in. I can't wait to be all electric... And sales of electric cars are accelerating, so as more people discover how much better it is, and talk to their friends, that trend will continue.
I do hope someone besides Tesla gets their collective heads out of their butts and puts together a charging network... But even so, in 20 years you'll probably see something more like one BEV commuter and one PHEV for travel, and they'll generally only buy gas on the road trips. The commuter can be one of the many EVs that's already out, the travel vehicle can be something like the Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid (which is a PHEV with a pretty respectable electric range) that will handle all of the daily driving needs on the battery.
If the alternative charging network comes to fruition, or if someone takes Tesla up on their offer to join up with the Supercharger network, it'll be much more likely to have a majority of all-EV households in 20 years.
Of course there will be. Imagine 850 mile range and ability to recharge in 30 minutes. That will come very, very close to serving 100% of drivers.
Why 850 miles? Who ever does 850 miles without stopping? How many ICE vehicles can even do that? 850 miles is WAY overboard. You'd lose a lot of your daily driving efficiency to carry around that massive, heavy battery all the time! And you certainly wouldn't need to charge in 30 minutes at that point, because after driving 850 miles non-stop, you're gonna be sleeping for a lot longer than that before you go on your next 850-mile leg.
There are plenty of ICEVs that can't even go 400 miles... 400 miles with 10-15 minutes to recharge is as far as it needs to go.
I meant more along the lines with what is available currently. I used 20 years because I figure it’ll take at least that long for the average household to cycle through buying a new car and having enough EV models available (it’s going to take more than the current 4 or 5 choices).
There are WAY more than "4 or 5 choices" already - I count 21 purely electric models, *not* counting ones that have been discontinued for a while (Mitsubishi i-MiEV), are from manufacturers not usually seen in the US (BYD, CODA), were produced only in limited numbers (Toyota Rav4 EV), or are a "lunchbox" (smart ForTwo etc., hat tip to Achmed the Dead Terrorist and his creator Jeff Dunham).
Audi (e-Tron)
BMW (i3)
Chevy (Bolt, Spark EV)
Fiat (500e)
Ford (Focus Electric)
Honda (Clarity, Fit EV)
Hyundai (Ioniq, Kona)
Jaguar (I-Pace)
Kia (Niro, Soul EV)
Mercedes (B-Class Electric Drive, B250e)
Nissan (Leaf)
Scion (iQ)
Tesla (Model S, Model X, Model 3)
Volkswagen (e-Golf)
And that's just the purely battery-electric vehicles. There are 32 more mainstream plug-in hybrids, most of them based on the more traditional ICEVs. BMW 3, 5, and 7 series, Ford Fusion, Volvo S60/S90/XC60/XC90, Hyundai Sonata, etc.
And I can't tell you how many are supposed to come out in 2020. I think it's "all of them."