Tesla Model 3 - Now I get the hype.

And Tesla tends to put bigger batteries in their stuff than anyone else
Recently viewed this vlog that relates to this comment. Tesla's acquisition of Maxwell gives them the tech "recipes" to increase the kWh of the battery cells within the same size/weight package. I expect to see this sort of tech be the foundation of the "T150" truck.

 
The problem with towing is the drag and sheer weight that is applying forces on the rear of your truck.

My travel trailer puts 1000 lbs of weight on the hitch. It’s 36 ft long, pretty damn tall, and weighs a good 8500 lbs. I also fill the box of my truck with gear, generator, etc. Gusty crosswinds puts some strong forces on the truck. Tough mission, but no problem for the turbo V6 F150. Even through the steepest mountain grades, it can pull the trailer fast enough to put me in jail.

I towed it at 80 mph recently from Lincoln, to Denver, to Yellowstone, into Yellowstone, to Glacier National park, then into Canada and back.

The day Tesla has a truck that can tow it 320 miles between stops, handle the camper as well as my F150, charge it within 15 minutes, and has a charging network built out to support my described cross country trip...I’ll order one first thing.

That all said, I expect my next truck will be another Ford.

For an EV truck, it will weigh more than the gas version. So it will be affected less by wind and other concerns. In addition, I suspect most EV trucks will have more power than the gas versions. The reason is EV motors have very little downside except cost to have a larger motor. While larger motors for gas engines lose efficiency when not working at the design load.

The real issue is the range requirement; and that will take time and technology to solve. The second issue is FUD. Not much anyone can do about that. Gas engines are just a known quantity, and people are comfortable with them.

Tim
 
How many Kwh’s and what weight are equivalent for a battery to my 36 gallon fuel tank?

Looked it up appr. 33.7kwh per gallon, or 1200kwh with a weight of 215lbs for my 36 gallon tank. I do know electrics are more efficient.........BUT........
An 85kwh Tesla battery weighs 1200lbs.
The energy density per pound of current batteries comes up willfully short.
I can drive over 700 miles in my truck before I need to fill up and can fill up in 5 minutes anywhere in the US.
When they can produce an electric truck or sedan with an equivalent 400hp/400+torque, charges in 15 minutes and can be charged anywhere, sign me up. Until then I have no use for one.
 
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Ah, I hear the song of the uninformed... ;)

How many Kwh’s and what weight are equivalent for a battery to my 36 gallon fuel tank?

Looked it up appr. 33.7kwh per gallon, or 1200kwh with a weight of 215lbs for my 36 gallon tank. I do know electrics are more efficient.........BUT........
An 85kwh Tesla battery weighs 1200lbs.
The energy density per pound of current batteries comes up willfully short.

Minor nits first: The 85kWh battery was Tesla's first on a car they built fully themselves. The tech that's shipping in their cars now is a little lighter: 80kWh is 1,054 pounds (including the shell and other support structure, not just the battery cells).

Now, the 33.7kWh per gallon is a typo. It's 32.7. But that is the energy content of the gasoline, and the vast majority of that becomes waste heat in an internal combustion engine. If you're lucky, you get about 30% of that as motive power, or 9.81 kWh/gal. The electric motors, OTOH, are around 90% efficient. That's why their "MPGe" ratings sound so fantastically high compared to ICE vehicles. But, your 36-gallon tank is still about 350kWh... And like I said, I expect a 300kWh battery option.

When they can produce an electric truck or sedan with an equivalent 400hp/400+torque,

That's laughably easy for an EV. The single-motor Model 3 (the small Tesla sedan) gets 250 hp and 317 lb-ft. The dual-motor performance version of the same car is 450hp and 471 lb-ft. The pickup could use the larger motors from the Model S or X, or anywhere from 2-4 of the model 3 motors. The Tesla Semi uses 4 of the model 3 motors, and that thing scoots unlike any truck you've ever seen (that's a Model S holding the camera):


I can drive over 700 miles in my truck before I need to fill up

I can fly 7 hours in my airplane before I *need* to fill up. The question is not *can* you, but *do* you? I've driven 700 miles in one shot maybe twice in my life, and it SUCKS. And I only did it because someone was paying me to do it.

charges in 15 minutes and can be charged anywhere, sign me up. Until then I have no use for one.

Again with the 15 minutes thing. Not sure where that comes from (probably all the FUD), but I think you're probably stopped for longer than you think when you stop on a road trip. By the time you gas up (which requires your attention and presence, unlike charging a car), move your car, take a leak, and grab some food you're probably closer to the 1/2 hour mark, which is about what you'd need to drive another 350 miles in a pickup.
 
I can fly 7 hours in my airplane before I *need* to fill up. The question is not *can* you, but *do* you? I've driven 700 miles in one shot maybe twice in my life, and it SUCKS. And I only did it because someone was paying me to do it.

Based on the number of people who tell me that this is a hard requirement for them, there is a fortune to be made in investing in adult diaper manufacturers.
 
At this time there is still a large weight problem with battery technology, charging stations and charging times. That is not disputable, and until technology and many many more stations come about they are not feasible for most.
Pure electrics are concentrated in certain areas (cities) and mine is not one of them. Time will tell, but the numbers still show where the consumer is at this point. Take away tax breaks/incentives for the purchaser and sales will less.

You missed the point of 700 miles and filling up in 15 minutes, see I “can” drive and fill up in 15 minutes anywhere in the US, but I can’t in any electric. Then there still is the massive weight difference between my fuel vs batteries.
It ain’t there yet for ”me” maybe someday.


Ah, I hear the song of the uninformed... ;)



Minor nits first: The 85kWh battery was Tesla's first on a car they built fully themselves. The tech that's shipping in their cars now is a little lighter: 80kWh is 1,054 pounds (including the shell and other support structure, not just the battery cells).

Now, the 33.7kWh per gallon is a typo. It's 32.7. But that is the energy content of the gasoline, and the vast majority of that becomes waste heat in an internal combustion engine. If you're lucky, you get about 30% of that as motive power, or 9.81 kWh/gal. The electric motors, OTOH, are around 90% efficient. That's why their "MPGe" ratings sound so fantastically high compared to ICE vehicles. But, your 36-gallon tank is still about 350kWh... And like I said, I expect a 300kWh battery option.



That's laughably easy for an EV. The single-motor Model 3 (the small Tesla sedan) gets 250 hp and 317 lb-ft. The dual-motor performance version of the same car is 450hp and 471 lb-ft. The pickup could use the larger motors from the Model S or X, or anywhere from 2-4 of the model 3 motors. The Tesla Semi uses 4 of the model 3 motors, and that thing scoots unlike any truck you've ever seen (that's a Model S holding the camera):




I can fly 7 hours in my airplane before I *need* to fill up. The question is not *can* you, but *do* you? I've driven 700 miles in one shot maybe twice in my life, and it SUCKS. And I only did it because someone was paying me to do it.



Again with the 15 minutes thing. Not sure where that comes from (probably all the FUD), but I think you're probably stopped for longer than you think when you stop on a road trip. By the time you gas up (which requires your attention and presence, unlike charging a car), move your car, take a leak, and grab some food you're probably closer to the 1/2 hour mark, which is about what you'd need to drive another 350 miles in a pickup.
 
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At this time there is still a large weight problem with battery technology, charging stations and charging times. That is not disputable, and until technology and many many more stations come about they are not feasible for most.
Pure electrics are concentrated in certain areas (cities) and mine is not one of them. Time will tell, but the numbers still show where the consumer is at this point. Take away tax breaks/incentives for the purchaser and sales will less.

You missed the point of 700 miles and filling up in 15 minutes, see I “can” drive and fill up in 15 minutes anywhere in the US, but I can’t in any electric. Then there still is the massive weight difference between my fuel vs batteries.
It ain’t there yet for ”me” maybe someday.

I bet you *at least* 995 out of every thousand people haven't the foggiest idea what their car weighs.

I'm generally a facts-and-figures guy and I like to know stuff about my machinery... But honestly, I could probably only get within the nearest thousand pounds on the cars I have, not the nearest hundred.

And yes, the "problem" with charing stations and times is disputable. At least when it comes to Tesla. Can you find a niche trip where it wouldn't work? Sure. Now, maybe it's because I usually travel via Mooney, but I can't think of a single road trip I've taken in the last decade that couldn't be done with a Tesla today, without any significant increase in trip time for charging.

Does it require more planning? Yes. Is it as flexible as finding the gas station that lives on every corner? No. But Tesla owners have discovered that those aspects are a minor trade-off compared to the conveniences it gives you the rest of the time: NOT having to spend any time at the gas station in the 50 weeks of the year you're not going on a road trip, NOT having to take your car in for oil changes, NOT having to buy a new car to get new features, and many others.
 
Hey, I’m not saying there aren’t many advantages to an EV car.
Unfortunately in my town of 80,000 there are no charging stations and where I work there aren’t any either. EV’s don’t fit my situation very well at this time. In the future when the infrastructure is built up I will be buying one.
But I won’t ever get rid of my gas guzzling smoke belching Mustang:)
 
Unfortunately in my town of 80,000 there are no charging stations and where I work there aren’t any either. EV’s don’t fit my situation very well at this time. In the future when the infrastructure is built up I will be buying one.

Why do you need a charging station "in your town"? Your charging station is your house. What you want is charging stations a couple hundred miles away in the directions you might travel. Where's your town?
 
In addition to "your charging station is your house", there are many reports of EV owners negotiating with their power companies for greatly reduced electric rates during the night when grid costs are much lower compared to day and afternoon time periods.

This further reduces the cost of charging/operating your EV. And it is possible to get to the typical 80% capacity from a low point during overnight charging.

I also gotta give Tesla props for a software feature that leverages this. There is a setting in the system that says , if plugged in at a preset location (such as your home) to only start charging when the rate drop occurs. So if the negotiated rate per KWH drops by half at 10:00pm, you can arrive home at 6:00pm, plug in the car as you enter the house, but the car does start sipping electrons until the rates drop.

Using apps such as Plugshare shows me that EV chargers are way more plentiful than you think. Maybe not yet as ubiquitous as the corner gas station, but they are headed that way. And I am finding many businesses that I already trade with (or would trade with) offering free charging when you visit them.... sorta like validating your parking.
 
For an EV truck, it will weigh more than the gas version. So it will be affected less by wind and other concerns. In addition, I suspect most EV trucks will have more power than the gas versions. The reason is EV motors have very little downside except cost to have a larger motor. While larger motors for gas engines lose efficiency when not working at the design load.

The real issue is the range requirement; and that will take time and technology to solve. The second issue is FUD. Not much anyone can do about that. Gas engines are just a known quantity, and people are comfortable with them.

Tim
What is fud?
 
Why do you need a charging station "in your town"? Your charging station is your house. What you want is charging stations a couple hundred miles away in the directions you might travel. Where's your town?

Just looked, we do have a few charging stations in town, never knew. Do different stations charge differently?

What is fud.
 
Just looked, we do have a few charging stations in town, never knew. Do different stations charge differently?

What is fud.
Ours would be unusable if I were towing my camper with a Tesla pickup. They’re designed for cars to park at. A lot of infrastructure would need to be built to make the pickup towing thing viable, existing network, hasn’t been built to support it.
 
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...Now, the 33.7kWh per gallon is a typo. It's 32.7. But that is the energy content of the gasoline, and the vast majority of that becomes waste heat in an internal combustion engine. If you're lucky, you get about 30% of that as motive power, or 9.81 kWh/gal. The electric motors, OTOH, are around 90% efficient. That's why their "MPGe" ratings sound so fantastically high compared to ICE vehicles. But, your 36-gallon tank is still about 350kWh... And like I said, I expect a 300kWh battery option...

This is an interesting point. Goes directly to the range issue. :thumbsup:

Batteries are chemical devices. Battery technology improvements have been incremental, not giant leaps forward in capability. There's nothing in the research I have followed that suggests that there is some magic breakthrough imminent, but ongoing compounding of incremental improvements seem entirely probable for some time to come.

As I understand, the ability to rapidly charge or discharge a battery is related to the chemical reaction rate, and the ability of the battery package to physically deal with the heat that is generated. Given some of the reported incidents of battery ignitions and vehicle incinerations, it would appear that charge time capability is being pushed pretty hard right now with existing EV battery technology. That shouldn't be surprising as EV manufacturers try to overcome the range and convenience concerns of potential customers, particularly Tesla, which seems to want to push all the limits harder than the mainstream manufacturers (can you imagine any of them promoting "autopilot" as hard as Tesla has?).

Having said all that, the ~90% efficiency means that every percentage point of incremental battery capability improvement translates into a material incremental improvement in range. And the gap is closing faster than perhaps many, including me, realized?

I doubt I can afford a new Tesla pick-up truck if/when it finally arrives. But I am slowly coming around to the view that an electric pick-up truck of similar AWD run-about capability and competitive all-in full-cycle lifetime cost (e.g. purchase price, fuel/energy, maintenance, insurance, registration, taxes) as my GMC Denali 1/2 ton is rapidly becoming both technically feasible, and a potentially attractive alternative.

Alas, I am resigned to our well used F350 diesel continuing to pull Mrs. GRG55's too-large horse trailer for the foreseeable future, however.
 
Just looked, we do have a few charging stations in town, never knew. Do different stations charge differently?
This might answer the question...


Regarding the Tesla cars, they do ship with a plug adapter that will bridge the connection between the non-Tesla charger and the Tesla car. And the vehicle will charge. But at a rate lower than the Tesla branded chargers such as their Superchargers and Destination Chargers.

One thing that Tesla has "done right" was creating the Supercharger infrastructure across the land. Making it possible to go on long distances and have a supercharger within range of the previous one. Plus updating these "stations" when possible with the latest version of hardware and software... Recently announced is the next advancement that will decrease charge time from nearly depleted to 80% charge by 20-30%.


I wonder if someday, the garage floor becomes an oversized Qi charging mat that eliminates the need to plug in. I just pull in and the car charges from induction like my iPhone XS does on the mat located on my kitchen counter.
 
What is fud?

Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.

The Koch brothers, among other entities, have put a LOT of money into spreading FUD about electric cars. Tons of "articles" are available in both new and traditional media that talk about the expense of replacing EV batteries (not really a thing), the environmental aspects of mining Lithium (it actually comes from simple seawater, not big ugly mines), range/infrastructure concerns, and all of the stuff that you see EV skeptics talking about.

Big money buys public opinion these days, unfortunately.

Just looked, we do have a few charging stations in town, never knew. Do different stations charge differently?

Teslas can charge from pretty much anything now, with a couple of caveats that are addressed by adapters that either haven't had software written for them on some models or aren't available yet in some markets.

Every production electric car built for the North American market in the last decade or so can use the SAE J1772 connector, which is what the "normal" chargers use.

There are three standards for fast(er) charging, and which company's car you buy dictates which you'll get. You have the Tesla Superchargers, CHAdeMO, and SAE-CCS. The Tesla Superchargers are 150kW now, and in the process of being upgraded to 250kW. SAE-CCS and CHAdeMO stations are generally 50 kW, with 150kW ones starting to roll out.

The Tesla Superchargers are pretty much evenly spread along the Interstate highway system now, exactly how you need it for a road trip. SAE-CCS and CHAdeMO tend to be concentrated in big cities, completely missing the point. Those two also tend to both be attached to a single charging station to maximize compatibility.

Hopefully this all makes sense. It's getting late and I have too much blood in my caffeine stream.

Ours would be unusable if I were towing my camper with a Tesla pickup. They’re designed for cars to park at. A lot of infrastructure would need to be built to make the pickup towing thing viable, existing network, hasn’t been built to support it.

Most new Supercharger installations are being built with at least one station that allows pull-through with a trailer. Instead of a simple parking spot with the cabinet in front of the spot like the old ones, the pull-through spots have the cabinet to the side of the spot. I've seen pictures of Supercharger stations that are 100% pull-through even. Some of the existing stations are having pull-through spots added if possible.

I wonder if someday, the garage floor becomes an oversized Qi charging mat that eliminates the need to plug in. I just pull in and the car charges from induction like my iPhone XS does on the mat located on my kitchen counter.

You need less distance between charger and receiver than that, or it's going to cost you way too much money to charge. Distance = inefficiency.

There is a company called Plugless Power that sells such a beast, though. There's a unit in your garage, and a receiver that gets mounted under the car. If you park the car *just* so, you'll get a good charge. If it's too far off to the side or something, it'll get less and less efficient.

I'm sure that'll get bigger as time goes on, but it seems most owners, myself included, don't have a problem taking half a second to grab a plug and plug in the car.
 
A good video discussing how Tesla is approaching and solving the Autonomous Vehicle challenge.

 
The Tesla Superchargers are pretty much evenly spread along the Interstate highway system now, exactly how you need it for a road trip.
My brother recently moved to the North Atlanta area. So using an app that allows me to plan a trip by showing me where all the EV charging stations are, I took a look at the route between Dallas and Atlanta, and filtered for Superchargers only.

An interesting find was that the average distance between stations was about 210 miles. Well within even the short range Model 3's max range. But also within my (and perhaps many peoples) max endurance before needing to take a stretch/food/potty break. And I would definitely be wanting the 30-45 minutes it takes to recharge the car to recharge my bio based systems. And with many of the chargers very close to food and caffeine sources, it is a win-win-win.

So yeah, the arrangement of the Superchargers is exactly how I would need it for a road trip.
 
Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.

The Koch brothers, among other entities, have put a LOT of money into spreading FUD about electric cars. Tons of "articles" are available in both new and traditional media that talk about the expense of replacing EV batteries (not really a thing), the environmental aspects of mining Lithium (it actually comes from simple seawater, not big ugly mines), range/infrastructure concerns, and all of the stuff that you see EV skeptics talking about.

Big money buys public opinion these days, unfortunately.



Teslas can charge from pretty much anything now, with a couple of caveats that are addressed by adapters that either haven't had software written for them on some models or aren't available yet in some markets.

Every production electric car built for the North American market in the last decade or so can use the SAE J1772 connector, which is what the "normal" chargers use.

There are three standards for fast(er) charging, and which company's car you buy dictates which you'll get. You have the Tesla Superchargers, CHAdeMO, and SAE-CCS. The Tesla Superchargers are 150kW now, and in the process of being upgraded to 250kW. SAE-CCS and CHAdeMO stations are generally 50 kW, with 150kW ones starting to roll out.

The Tesla Superchargers are pretty much evenly spread along the Interstate highway system now, exactly how you need it for a road trip. SAE-CCS and CHAdeMO tend to be concentrated in big cities, completely missing the point. Those two also tend to both be attached to a single charging station to maximize compatibility.

Hopefully this all makes sense. It's getting late and I have too much blood in my caffeine stream.



Most new Supercharger installations are being built with at least one station that allows pull-through with a trailer. Instead of a simple parking spot with the cabinet in front of the spot like the old ones, the pull-through spots have the cabinet to the side of the spot. I've seen pictures of Supercharger stations that are 100% pull-through even. Some of the existing stations are having pull-through spots added if possible.



You need less distance between charger and receiver than that, or it's going to cost you way too much money to charge. Distance = inefficiency.

There is a company called Plugless Power that sells such a beast, though. There's a unit in your garage, and a receiver that gets mounted under the car. If you park the car *just* so, you'll get a good charge. If it's too far off to the side or something, it'll get less and less efficient.

I'm sure that'll get bigger as time goes on, but it seems most owners, myself included, don't have a problem taking half a second to grab a plug and plug in the car.
Oh well nothing new there. Many of the same reasons why nuclear energy is still an evil boogie man to many. Ironically greenies are some of the biggest haters of nuclear because of the propaganda spread by traditional energy years ago.
 
This might answer the question...


Regarding the Tesla cars, they do ship with a plug adapter that will bridge the connection between the non-Tesla charger and the Tesla car. And the vehicle will charge. But at a rate lower than the Tesla branded chargers such as their Superchargers and Destination Chargers.

One thing that Tesla has "done right" was creating the Supercharger infrastructure across the land. Making it possible to go on long distances and have a supercharger within range of the previous one. Plus updating these "stations" when possible with the latest version of hardware and software... Recently announced is the next advancement that will decrease charge time from nearly depleted to 80% charge by 20-30%.


I wonder if someday, the garage floor becomes an oversized Qi charging mat that eliminates the need to plug in. I just pull in and the car charges from induction like my iPhone XS does on the mat located on my kitchen counter.

I read about that. The only reason I stay interested at all in Tesla is because they have Jeff Dahn working on the batteries. The deal killer for me has always been the long waits during long trips. I like to gas up and go. I don't eat rest area food and it only takes a minute to pee; so for me, sitting around in a rest area waiting for the car to charge just isn't going to happen. But if anyone can make the system more efficient, it's Jeff Dahn. Get it down to 300 miles in 10 minutes and I'm in.

I've always thought a universal system of, say, three different-sized batteries, with stations doing battery swaps rather than charges, would have made more sense. A car designed for that could probably receive a replacement battery in about two or three minutes, and the station could test and charge them on-site using much less space than is needed for cars to individually charge. Overbuild and under-rate the batteries by 20 percent, so they still deliver the rated power after they've degraded by 80 percent; and test them at each charge.

A battery-swap system would make electric cars as convenient as ICE-powered cars and eliminate my main complaint (which I suspect is shared by many, many other people).

Rich
 
Some of the FUD may be Musk saying they'll be out of money in 10 months.
 
OK, I probably should have said it's rated for 5000 pounds.

Those "pickup towing giant aircraft" stunts don't really impress me much. You're not putting 10% of the weight on the hitch like a normal towing operation. All you're doing is pulling something that happens to be heavy that's carrying its own weight and has wheels. Whoopty doo. A single human being can pull that aircraft too...




Without a fast charging network, nobody else's electric is going to do much of anything. This is one of the most shortsighted pieces of the puzzle for the non-Tesla portion of the industry. None of the auto manufacturers have announced a fast charging network or even any support for it. In fact, at least some of them have announced they're NOT supporting any networks or investing in any charging infrastructure.

In addition, none of the oil companies are diversifying into it. They're still too busy trying to spread FUD about electric cars.

One might say "There's an opportunity for someone else!" But this stuff is going to require a huge company with a lot of money to make a huge investment that won't pay off for quite some time. Each fast charging station costs on the order of $30,000. As of January, Tesla had a little over 12,000 of them, and the Supercharger network is growing at a very fast pace. Obviously, Tesla does not pay $30K per Supercharger (that's retail for some of the units by ABB, Eaton, AeroVironment*, etc) because they're designing and building them themselves, but they've certainly made a massive investment in infrastructure that's given them a huge competitive advantage: There is NO non-Tesla BEV that can really be a good road-trip vehicle right now. But, someone is going to have to make that investment for everyone else, or the other manufacturers are going to have to cave and give in to Tesla's offer to allow their vehicles onto the Supercharger network. Who know what'll happen. :dunno:

Your charger is at home, or there's a charging station within a reasonable distance of wherever you want to travel. Which is it? I seriously wouldn't be worried about the lack of charging stations as a deterrent to other EV brands. If Ford, GM, etc. start making mass production EVs, the aftermarket will come up with charging stations. Every strip mall/shopping mall/gas station will be jumping at the chance to install some charging stations in order to drive more retail sales. I wouldn't be surprised if they become more prevalent than Tesla's SuperChargers in short order if the EV market takes off with the major auto makers. Right now, it's not much of an investment for most of the country because you're just trying to grab the handful of Tesla drivers that need a SuperCharger station each day, or the handful of other EVs that need a slow-charge. Thing is, Tesla may price themselves out of the market with their Truck. If Ford comes out with their EV F-150 within a year of Tesla, I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla has trouble because Ford will do it cheaper and already has a reputation of building a hell of a light duty truck. Tesla has been able to go after the "pemium" market with the Model 3/X/S, but there's not really a "premium market" for light-duty trucks. You compete with Ford, GM, and Dodge, and they're already at prices most people have trouble stomaching. If Telsa makes a truck that costs $70K+ and is only rated to tow 10K lbs, Ford/GM is going to eat their lunch on price.
 
I read about that. The only reason I stay interested at all in Tesla is because they have Jeff Dahn working on the batteries. The deal killer for me has always been the long waits during long trips. I like to gas up and go. I don't eat rest area food and it only takes a minute to pee; so for me, sitting around in a rest area waiting for the car to charge just isn't going to happen. But if anyone can make the system more efficient, it's Jeff Dahn. Get it down to 300 miles in 10 minutes and I'm in.

I've always thought a universal system of, say, three different-sized batteries, with stations doing battery swaps rather than charges, would have made more sense. A car designed for that could probably receive a replacement battery in about two or three minutes, and the station could test and charge them on-site using much less space than is needed for cars to individually charge. Overbuild and under-rate the batteries by 20 percent, so they still deliver the rated power after they've degraded by 80 percent; and test them at each charge.

A battery-swap system would make electric cars as convenient as ICE-powered cars and eliminate my main complaint (which I suspect is shared by many, many other people).

Rich

Rich,

Curious, how many trips to the gas station do you make a year around home. How many road trips do you make a year? Basically, I think you are focused more on the edge case than the normal. As such, you likely end up with a much higher carrying cost :D


Tim
 
There’s no longer a $35,000 Model 3. They just upped the price to $35,400 last week. That’s a deal breaker. Nice try Tesla, you almost had me.
 
Rich,

Curious, how many trips to the gas station do you make a year around home. How many road trips do you make a year? Basically, I think you are focused more on the edge case than the normal. As such, you likely end up with a much higher carrying cost :D


Tim

I make long trips about twice a month because most of my family and friends live far away. Most would fall within the Tesla's range one-way if I mooch juice from them while I'm there in exchange for a case of beer. Some wouldn't.

If I don't make any long trips, I usually fill up twice a month. If I do, I fill up before leaving and before coming back. I get ~ 42 MPG on the highway, so I can go well over 400 miles on a 3-minute fill-up if I keep the speed down. I want 300 miles for ten minutes before I'd run out and buy a PEV. That's more than three times the fill time for three-fourths the mileage. I think that's perfectly reasonable. I'd even consider 300 miles for 15 minutes.

I do think they'll achieve that at some point, by the way. But I still think battery swaps would make more sense.

Rich
 
I read about that. The only reason I stay interested at all in Tesla is because they have Jeff Dahn working on the batteries. The deal killer for me has always been the long waits during long trips. I like to gas up and go. I don't eat rest area food and it only takes a minute to pee; so for me, sitting around in a rest area waiting for the car to charge just isn't going to happen. But if anyone can make the system more efficient, it's Jeff Dahn. Get it down to 300 miles in 10 minutes and I'm in.

That'd be about 450 kW (assuming 250 Wh/mi), about double what Tesla's v3 Superchargers will deliver. But, the v3 Superchargers will deliver double what the original ones did in 2012. So, maybe by 2026 you'll have it.

I've always thought a universal system of, say, three different-sized batteries, with stations doing battery swaps rather than charges, would have made more sense. A car designed for that could probably receive a replacement battery in about two or three minutes, and the station could test and charge them on-site using much less space than is needed for cars to individually charge. Overbuild and under-rate the batteries by 20 percent, so they still deliver the rated power after they've degraded by 80 percent; and test them at each charge.

Tesla designed the Model S for quick battery swaps, and it could be done in 90 seconds. However, they opened one battery-swap station between SF and LA so you could make that trip quickly, and... Closed it, because pretty much everyone was just using the Supercharger there instead.

The idea of a standard for the batteries would be great, although it'd likely have to be several standards to accommodate the varying sizes and shapes of vehicles. That way, you could have a "commuter battery" with maybe 100 mile range for normal driving, and a "road trip battery" with 300+ mile range for the rest of the time. That would be more efficient, since you wouldn't need to carry the weight of the road trip battery all the time like you do with a Tesla.

Unfortunately, the various manufacturers have shown no signs that they're willing to be anywhere near that cooperative.

A battery-swap system would make electric cars as convenient as ICE-powered cars and eliminate my main complaint (which I suspect is shared by many, many other people).

Meh... For 90% of the population, 90% of the time, an EV is *more* convenient. No more going to the gas station! But, we're all conditioned to think of refueling as something we go somewhere to do, and stand right there while it happens. People always ask me "How long does it take to charge from empty to full?" Wrong question. It's never empty, and it doesn't have to get full either. Plug it in often, and forget it. Sure, it's possible to drain your battery. It's also possible to run out of gas. When was the last time you (not you, Rich, but each individual reading this) ran out of gas? But the big advantage with EVs is that every time you leave the house, you have a full "tank".

Your charger is at home, or there's a charging station within a reasonable distance of wherever you want to travel. Which is it?

Both? :dunno: I'm not sure what you're getting at. You charge your car at home. You charge your car along the way if you're traveling somewhere. Depending on where you're going, maybe you charge the car while you're there, or you just charge it up at a Supercharger early in the trip back home (or late in the outbound trip).

My point was that just because you don't have any chargers in your own town doesn't mean that a Tesla is a bad choice for you, because you should never actually have to use chargers in your own town with a Tesla.

I seriously wouldn't be worried about the lack of charging stations as a deterrent to other EV brands. If Ford, GM, etc. start making mass production EVs, the aftermarket will come up with charging stations. Every strip mall/shopping mall/gas station will be jumping at the chance to install some charging stations in order to drive more retail sales. I wouldn't be surprised if they become more prevalent than Tesla's SuperChargers in short order if the EV market takes off with the major auto makers. Right now, it's not much of an investment for most of the country because you're just trying to grab the handful of Tesla drivers that need a SuperCharger station each day, or the handful of other EVs that need a slow-charge.

Meh... The problem isn't malls. Plenty of those already have charging stations. And there's plenty of places that have a fast charger, in highly populated areas. The problem is, who's going to pay to put in a fast charger in the middle of rural Montana, or Utah, or any of the other places in this country that have very little in the way of population? They'd rather spend their money in places where there'll be more traffic and they can make their investment back faster.

So, it's kind of a chicken-or-egg problem. There won't be a whole lot of non-Tesla EVs sold as primary vehicles until there's an infrastructure in place to support long road trips with them, but nobody wants to invest in that infrastructure until they'll be able to make their money back on it in a reasonable amount of time.

Thing is, Tesla may price themselves out of the market with their Truck. If Ford comes out with their EV F-150 within a year of Tesla, I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla has trouble because Ford will do it cheaper and already has a reputation of building a hell of a light duty truck. Tesla has been able to go after the "pemium" market with the Model 3/X/S, but there's not really a "premium market" for light-duty trucks. You compete with Ford, GM, and Dodge, and they're already at prices most people have trouble stomaching. If Telsa makes a truck that costs $70K+ and is only rated to tow 10K lbs, Ford/GM is going to eat their lunch on price.

It'll be interesting for sure... But I don't think Ford will beat Tesla on price on an EV truck in the beginning. Their problem is battery cost. Tesla's investments in their own battery production are already paying dividends in the form of lower battery costs than anyone else can manage. Since the pickups will likely make up for their size with big batteries, Tesla will have a cost advantage. Hopefully that translates into prices that are similar, if not lower for Tesla.
 
Both? :dunno: I'm not sure what you're getting at. You charge your car at home. You charge your car along the way if you're traveling somewhere. Depending on where you're going, maybe you charge the car while you're there, or you just charge it up at a Supercharger early in the trip back home (or late in the outbound trip).

My point was that just because you don't have any chargers in your own town doesn't mean that a Tesla is a bad choice for you, because you should never actually have to use chargers in your own town with a Tesla.



Meh... The problem isn't malls. Plenty of those already have charging stations. And there's plenty of places that have a fast charger, in highly populated areas. The problem is, who's going to pay to put in a fast charger in the middle of rural Montana, or Utah, or any of the other places in this country that have very little in the way of population? They'd rather spend their money in places where there'll be more traffic and they can make their investment back faster.

So, it's kind of a chicken-or-egg problem. There won't be a whole lot of non-Tesla EVs sold as primary vehicles until there's an infrastructure in place to support long road trips with them, but nobody wants to invest in that infrastructure until they'll be able to make their money back on it in a reasonable amount of time.



It'll be interesting for sure... But I don't think Ford will beat Tesla on price on an EV truck in the beginning. Their problem is battery cost. Tesla's investments in their own battery production are already paying dividends in the form of lower battery costs than anyone else can manage. Since the pickups will likely make up for their size with big batteries, Tesla will have a cost advantage. Hopefully that translates into prices that are similar, if not lower for Tesla.

My point was that you were stating that the SuperCharger network was what gave Tesla a big advantage over the rest of the automakers while simultaneously saying that you wouldn't ever need to use one around town because you'd charge at home. I was saying that I don't think the SuperCharger network is really much of an issue for the major auto manufacturers because it's not a huge issue for most people anyway for 90% of the vehicle use-cases. In BFE Montana or Utah, I'd imagine no one is going to put a fastcharge station in place other than the local store or fuel station, but it's probably not where most people are going to buy an EV anyway. Rural communities are where the ICE or HEV probably makes more sense since people aren't generally out shopping and grabbing a Starbucks. Those communities will likely be the last to convert to an EV, if ever.

Ford knows how to make trucks (as does GM/Ram/etc). Any savings Tesla has on batteries will be eaten up by the cost of trying to compete with Ford on scaling their mass production capability. Ford can build 90% of the truck cheaper than Tesla likely can, just due to commonality of parts with its existing truck models. Tesla is used to competing with BMW, Mercedes, and Audi for a premium product and price. Cadillac and Lincoln both tried their hand at a high-end luxury truck and they didn't last very long. I don't think Tesla is going to be able to target that type of customer with their truck offerings, so they will have to go head-to-head with the Big 3. Tough sell, but maybe I'll have to eat my words, I just don't see them being a dominant force in the truck market.
 
Rich,

Curious, how many trips to the gas station do you make a year around home. How many road trips do you make a year? Basically, I think you are focused more on the edge case than the normal. As such, you likely end up with a much higher carrying cost :D


Tim
Lol. You’ve been posting on here long enough to know better... rich will have hard data to back up his position on EV. Not emotionally based drivel like you just challenged him with ... lol
 
There still are places an EV truck can not be substituted for the conventional truck. I do a lot of hunting in very remote areas, we have to haul in fuel to last the week we are there. Unless some solar system is devised there ain't no way an electric will work.

I looked up the prices for the Tesla's, seems $36,000 only buys you the cheapest base model. If you want something nicer with more range or performance it's gonna cost you much much much more.
 
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There still are places an EV truck can not be substituted for the conventional truck. I do a lot of hunting in very remote areas, we have to haul in fuel to last the week we are there. Unless some solar system is devised there ain't no way an electric will work.

I looked up the prices for the Tesla's, seems $36,000 only buys you the cheapest base model. If you want something nicer with more range or performance it's gonna cost you much much much more.

Funny you mention hunting.
A diesel truck is no longer an option for you either. I drove my wife’s diesel Jeep to work and back (1 mile round trip) for 1 week. It has the newish diesel emissions junk on it. By the end of the week it forced me to take it on the highway to run its emissions burn off. I’ve also heard stories of hunting with a diesel truck; just as you get to where you want to go it wants to go highways speed for the burn off or it’ll go into limp mode.

Of course a gas truck will be fine. But it’s funny how emissions regulations are pushing people away from ICE in more ways than one.
 
My point was that you were stating that the SuperCharger network was what gave Tesla a big advantage over the rest of the automakers while simultaneously saying that you wouldn't ever need to use one around town because you'd charge at home.

No, I'm saying that "not having a charger in town" shouldn't be a deterrent for that poster to buy one because *he* would never use that charger. Other folks coming to visit his town would certainly benefit from either a Tesla Destination Charger or a normal L2 charger at their hotel, but they wouldn't need a Supercharger in town either - Just on the way to town, somewhere within 100-150 miles or so, so they can hit it again on the way back if need be.

For example, I live near Waukesha, WI. There is no Supercharger right here. Depending on which way I'm going, the nearest ones would be Oak Creek, Sheboygan, Oshkosh, or Madison... But I wouldn't likely use those either. I'll never need them that close to home. That doesn't mean that others can't take advantage of them when going from place to place. It also doesn't mean that people will be unable to visit me with an EV. Hence, the lack of chargers in my town is meaningless when it comes to usability of an EV.

I was saying that I don't think the SuperCharger network is really much of an issue for the major auto manufacturers because it's not a huge issue for most people anyway for 90% of the vehicle use-cases.

If not 99% - But look how many people on this thread are saying they won't buy an EV because it can't do 100%. If that's really true and they're not just Tesla-haters, then that means there needs to be a 100% solution for people to actually buy an EV. Without a well-planned fast-charge network, no EV is a 100% solution for the vast majority of people.

In BFE Montana or Utah, I'd imagine no one is going to put a fastcharge station in place other than the local store or fuel station, but it's probably not where most people are going to buy an EV anyway.

So then, how am I going to road-trip to the west coast to visit relatives out there? THAT is the problem. Those huge holes in the less populated areas are impossible to get through with any EV besides a Tesla.

Rural communities are where the ICE or HEV probably makes more sense since people aren't generally out shopping and grabbing a Starbucks. Those communities will likely be the last to convert to an EV, if ever.

If there's a 100% solution for everyone else to get *through* their area, then it's usually going to be a 100% solution for them too.

Ford knows how to make trucks (as does GM/Ram/etc). Any savings Tesla has on batteries will be eaten up by the cost of trying to compete with Ford on scaling their mass production capability. Ford can build 90% of the truck cheaper than Tesla likely can, just due to commonality of parts with its existing truck models. Tesla is used to competing with BMW, Mercedes, and Audi for a premium product and price. Cadillac and Lincoln both tried their hand at a high-end luxury truck and they didn't last very long. I don't think Tesla is going to be able to target that type of customer with their truck offerings, so they will have to go head-to-head with the Big 3. Tough sell, but maybe I'll have to eat my words, I just don't see them being a dominant force in the truck market.

Good points. I don't expect Tesla to unseat Ford as the king of pickups when even GM and Dodge can't do that. But, I do think they'll sell a lot of them. As many as they can make... But that number is going to likely be an order of magnitude fewer than Ford can make.
 
. . . If not 99% - But look how many people on this thread are saying they won't buy an EV because it can't do 100%. If that's really true and they're not just Tesla-haters, then that means there needs to be a 100% solution for people to actually buy an EV. Without a well-planned fast-charge network, no EV is a 100% solution for the vast majority of people.



So then, how am I going to road-trip to the west coast to visit relatives out there? THAT is the problem. Those huge holes in the less populated areas are impossible to get through with any EV besides a Tesla.



If there's a 100% solution for everyone else to get *through* their area, then it's usually going to be a 100% solution for them too.



Good points. I don't expect Tesla to unseat Ford as the king of pickups when even GM and Dodge can't do that. But, I do think they'll sell a lot of them. As many as they can make... But that number is going to likely be an order of magnitude fewer than Ford can make.

I don’t think there will be an EV that does 100% for most people that don’t live in a city like NYC/DC/major metropolis. The majority of US households that currently have 2 vehicles will likely have 1 EV and one ICE/Hybrid vehicle. The ICE will handle the long range trips and heavy hauling while the EV will cover the in-town and short range trips. At least that’s how I see it going in the next 20+ years or so.
 
I make long trips about twice a month because most of my family and friends live far away. Most would fall within the Tesla's range one-way if I mooch juice from them while I'm there in exchange for a case of beer. Some wouldn't.

If I don't make any long trips, I usually fill up twice a month. If I do, I fill up before leaving and before coming back. I get ~ 42 MPG on the highway, so I can go well over 400 miles on a 3-minute fill-up if I keep the speed down. I want 300 miles for ten minutes before I'd run out and buy a PEV. That's more than three times the fill time for three-fourths the mileage. I think that's perfectly reasonable. I'd even consider 300 miles for 15 minutes.

I do think they'll achieve that at some point, by the way. But I still think battery swaps would make more sense.

Rich

Rich,

Wow, you need to fly more and drive less :D
Although an EV could work for you, seems likely it would be more hassle than it is worth.
I am in the opposite end of the spectrum. I drive about 400 miles a month; except during ski season when I do two weekends a month average driving three hundred miles; where I need my AWD. The EV solutions for this are just way to expensive; or add to much time to already long day.

Tim
 
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