Pilot hiring

[Tarheelpilot]

I’m calling it. The pilot “shortage” is effectively done. Within 18 months I think all the crazy money at the regionals will be snapped back to contractual rates and hiring will be back to normal.

Better have that degree and a bunch of PIC turbine if you want a job at mainline. The hiring is already slowing and slots are more competitive.

 

[TCABM]

Yeah, what you saw over the last 2 years is done. I don’t think we’ll go back to the lost decade post 9/11, but attrition at the majors is normalizing out and delivery delays will slow down the hiring at certain carriers. It doesn’t look like business travel is forecast to return to pre-COVID levels, so that reduces the overall staffing needs, too.

The real question in my mind is how does the feeder landscape shake out and what’s going to become the shock absorber? Regionals/frac/135/ACMI and where do the LCCs land…stagecoach stop or career?

 

[Tarheelpilot]

Yeah, what you saw over the last 2 years is done. I don’t think we’ll go back to the lost decade post 9/11, but attrition at the majors is normalizing out and delivery delays will slow down the hiring at certain carriers. It doesn’t look like business travel is forecast to return to pre-COVID levels, so that reduces the overall staffing needs, too.

The real question in my mind is how does the feeder landscape shake out and what’s going to become the shock absorber? Regionals/frac/135/ACMI and where do the LCCs land…stagecoach stop or career?

I won’t be pretentious enough to say I know for sure how it will shake out but I think the regionals will be back to a stable pre-pandemic business model within the next 12-18 months. All the crazy money will be dried up.

The blue-yellow merger being blocked will free up some pilots and potentially some airplanes for the big three. I definitely think the market is showing to much capacity and there is competition from the legacies they never anticipated. Liquidation would not surprise me at all.

I agree it won’t be another lost decade. There will be steady hiring for retirements but nothing like the last two years.

All of this means the big three will be back to old hiring standards, regional pilots will be required to get that captain seat before they go and “poof” the shortage is gone.

Just my guess. Will be interesting to watch. Hope I don’t get furloughed.

 

[eman1200]

dammit, I was just about to start flying the 777x

 

[Pilot-To-Be]

So what does this mean for those of us working toward regional minimums? I’m currently 1,100TT almost finished with Commercial Multi and then starting on CFI. Will it be harder to get into a regional FO job in the next couple years? I realize nobody has a crystal ball, but it would be cool to know what I could expect.

 

[TCABM]

…Hope I don’t get furloughed.

I *think* mainline is likely safe unless they’re dependent on Boeing deliveries. Everyone below that…who knows.

Why do I think this…mainline isn’t expanding capacity and that’s impacting things like buddy passes but we’re not yet at positive space for commuting as a contract discussion point.

That could also be the Monday martini talking, too.

 

[Tarheelpilot]

So what does this mean for those of us working toward regional minimums? I’m currently 1,100TT almost finished with Commercial Multi and then starting on CFI. Will it be harder to get into a regional FO job in the next couple years? I realize nobody has a crystal ball, but it would be cool to know what I could expect.

Honestly I think it will increase FO hiring. Currently it’s almost stopped because of the shortage of captains at the regionals. If the current pilots at regionals are required to upgrade before they can leave there will be additional hiring to get new FOs on property.

Several regionals have airplanes parked for a “pilot” shortage. It’s kind of a misnomer. There is only a shortage of regional airline captains. Once that is alleviated airplanes will return to service.

AA just announced the purchase of 100ish new E-175s. That tells me they see the staffing model going back to normal very soon.

 

[Tarheelpilot]

I *think* mainline is likely safe unless they’re dependent on Boeing deliveries. Everyone below that…who knows.

Why do I think this…mainline isn’t expanding capacity and that’s impacting things like buddy passes but we’re not yet at positive space for commuting as a contract discussion point.

That could also be the Monday martini talking, too.

Monday martinis are the best. I’m having Monday scotch.

 

[Pilot-To-Be]

Honestly I think it will increase FO hiring. Currently it’s almost stopped because of the shortage of captains at the regionals. If the current pilots at regionals are required to upgrade before they can leave then there will be additional hiring to get new FOs on property.

I think most regionals have airplanes parked for a “pilot” shortage. It’s kind of a misnomer. There is only a shortage of regional airline captains.

The fact that AA just announced the purchase of 100ish new E-175s tells me they see the staffing model going back to normal very soon.

So you still think there will be a healthy amount of hiring for us climbing the latter based on what you see? It’s definitely no surprise things are slowing down. My goal has primarily to get ahead of the game when the next wave happens. I’ve got a good day job, so I’m not dependent on the airlines, just curious what the odds of hiring will be once I hit that magic 1500hr number and decide to go for it.

 

[Tarheelpilot]

So you still think there will be a healthy amount of hiring for us climbing the latter based on what you see? It’s definitely no surprise things are slowing down. My goal has primarily to get ahead of the game when the next wave happens. I’ve got a good day job, so I’m not dependent on the airlines, just curious what the odds of hiring will be once I hit that magic 1500hr number and decide to go for it.

I think so. Might take a little longer to get hired but there will still be plenty of hiring. Just don’t expect to get hired at mainline without captain time.

But this is just a discussion. I don’t know anything. About the only thing I confident about is the hiring at mainline is quickly returning to pre Covid levels of competition for the seats. The days of 24 year old FOs from regionals getting hired at the big3 are basically gone.

 

[TCABM]

So you still think there will be a healthy amount of hiring for us climbing the latter based on what you see? It’s definitely no surprise things are slowing down. My goal has primarily to get ahead of the game when the next wave happens. I’ve got a good day job, so I’m not dependent on the airlines, just curious what the odds of hiring will be once I hit that magic 1500hr number and decide to go for it.

Healthy is relative. TBH, the inputs probably exceed demand today, but we don’t know what early attrition looks like. That attrition can be forced (loss of medical) or voluntary (deciding it’s not worth it).

What I *think* it means is focusing on being most competitive, which means looking at preferred and not min hiring requirements, building a network, and valued experience is going to become more the norm.

As a retired .mil guy doing HR work at the top of the funnel (recruiting & retention) for a F100 company, we want to keep our ‘fat’ mid-level people, lose our expensive high level folks, and hire just enough entry level to account for the mid-levels moving up.

The airline industry has different needs, but until more airframes are added to fleets, needs are likely similar.

 

[Pilot-To-Be]

I think so. Might take a little longer to get hired but there will still be plenty of hiring. Just don’t expect to get hired at mainline without captain time.

But this is just a discussion. I don’t know anything. About the only thing I confident about is the hiring at mainline is quickly returning to pre Covid levels of competition for the seats. The days of 24 year old FOs from regionals getting hired at the big3 are basically gone.

That’s understandable. Thanks!

 

[TommyG]

So you still think there will be a healthy amount of hiring for us climbing the latter based on what you see? It’s definitely no surprise things are slowing down. My goal has primarily to get ahead of the game when the next wave happens. I’ve got a good day job, so I’m not dependent on the airlines, just curious what the odds of hiring will be once I hit that magic 1500hr number and decide to go for it.

We’ll being the airlines, including the regionals have been canceling training classes. I’d say get comfortable where or be able to move somewhere the jobs are at. The window of grabbing pilots tight when they hit 1500 are gonna be on pause for a little while. And with the up flow from the regionals to the majors in the past few years means a lot of young pilots are filling those seats for now.

 

[ArrowFlyer86]

What was the final straw that made you call it?

 

[mandm]

I’ve heard about the cancelling classes, amazing how vulnerable and “used” we are. Hey sign this contract to work for us, wait, oh wait nevermind we don’t need you, good bye.

 

[RyanShort1]

So what does this mean for those of us working toward regional minimums? I’m currently 1,100TT almost finished with Commercial Multi and then starting on CFI. Will it be harder to get into a regional FO job in the next couple years? I realize nobody has a crystal ball, but it would be cool to know what I could expect.

Yep, if they aren't talking to 6000 hour pilots, it's going to be pretty completive... Work hard to get any multi and turbine time you are offered via networking. I've been talking to a few other people that put in applications the same time that I did and we are all in the same boat.

 

[Tarheelpilot]

What was the final straw that made you call it?

Not sure if you’re asking me but if so it was the announcement by AA they were buying 100 regional jets.

 

[kaiser]

dammit, I was just about to start flying the 777x

I’ve heard about the cancelling classes, amazing how vulnerable and “used” we are. Hey sign this contract to work for us, wait, oh wait nevermind we don’t need you, good bye.

We in the biz call that - "at will" employment.

 

[TommyG]

I’ve heard about the cancelling classes, amazing how vulnerable and “used” we are. Hey sign this contract to work for us, wait, oh wait nevermind we don’t need you, good bye.

Back late 90s early 2000s the regionals wanted 250 multi, paid about $15k a year. And they had this great concept of pay for training. You get hired, pay $15k for the training, and if you fail out, which back then people actually failed out for what is deemed passable today. You’re still out the $15k.

Right now these regionals can drop the pay to minimum wage, and CFIs will line up to take those jobs that others are turning down because they want 60/year.

Things I have learned in aviation. There is zero loyalty from employers. Your friend will stab you in the back for an hour of multi time. And there will always be other people willing to work for free if it gets them in an airplane.

 

[DavidWhite]

Back late 90s early 2000s the regionals wanted 250 multi, paid about $15k a year. And they had this great concept of pay for training. You get hired, pay $15k for the training, and if you fail out, which back then people actually failed out for what is deemed passable today. You’re still out the $15k.

Right now these regionals can drop the pay to minimum wage, and CFIs will line up to take those jobs that others are turning down because they want 60/year.

I think the only reason any seats are being filled is because the regionals are actually paying livable wages. Why work for the regionals when you can get a job at a fractional or 91/135 and make close to $100k with 1500 hours?

 

[TCABM]

…Things I have learned in aviation; there will always be other people willing to work for free if it gets them in an airplane.

QFT.

 

[TCABM]

Let the furloughs begin. 260 pilots on 9/1 and deferring new deliveries.

 

[eman1200]

how many of us just went "well would you look at that, an actual real-life newspaper, whadyaknow" ?

 

[Velocity173]

Let the furloughs begin. 260 pilots on 9/1 and deferring new deliveries.

Jeez, I got a friend who flew for us, went to Envoy, COVID started, came back to us, then a few years ago went to Spirit. They go by seniority for furloughs?

 

[TCABM]

Jeez, I got a friend who flew for us, went to Envoy, COVID started, came back to us, then a few years ago went to Spirit. They go by seniority for furloughs?

No idea.

 

[kayoh190]

They go by seniority for furloughs?

Reverse seniority, but yes. Bunch of captains being sent back to the right seat as well. Really sucks for the guys over at Spirit - at least there's a lot of hiring going on elsewhere.

 

[texasclouds]

Bruh, old folks still gonna age out. The vinyl vibes will be lit for another minute. My man. For real, for real, no hat.

 

[Pinecone]

I wonder how far back that will take them.

Local CFI and Mooney owner got hired to a Regional and in less than a year was hired by Spirit. Probably about 1 year with them now.

 

[jordane93]

I wonder how far back that will take them.

Local CFI and Mooney owner got hired to a Regional and in less than a year was hired by Spirit. Probably about 1 year with them now.

I saw on another forum that it’s about August 2023 hires and beyond.

 

[Pinecone]

Thanks. He should be safe then. I know he was with them in July.

 

[kayoh190]

Hopefully attrition will be higher than planned and the total number will be lower than what was stated.

 

[Pinecone]

He is probably captain eligible now, so could go back to a regional in the left seat.

 

[hindsight2020]

Hopefully attrition will be higher than planned and the total number will be lower than what was stated.

The closure of ACY is certainly a company attempt (even if only by proxy) at trying to induce that end. Spirit has a regional labor business model. It may be an acceptable 'career stop' for those who get stuck in the game of musical chairs for the industry (in the way they may not consider FFD subcontractor shops to be), but it's clear from a company perspective they prefer to run a juniority shop. They loathe longevity stagnation at the top. I don't know how many mid to high seniority peeps will pull handles over the loss of being able to drive to work at ACY, but it's probably higher than zero. As you know, not everybody in that job does it for max W2. A sub-demographic of people quit all the time over having their homesteading priorities upended. From my purview as a future retiree with zero interest in any kind of commute (let alone a transcon) I certainly would exercise that kind of high price-elasticity in employment. Though I recognize that's not a majority position for most primary-payer airline guys.

That said, I don't think that closure alone will induce sufficient mid/high seniority attrition to stem the lion's share of those largely 1st year probie furloughs.