Mid-Air at Winter Haven

[Nick Geber]

If the Cub had a portable, battery operated Stratus and an Ipad, there's a good chance they may have seen the traffic. No electrical system needed.

 

[RyanShort1]

If the Cub had a portable, battery operated Stratus and an Ipad, there's a good chance they may have seen the traffic. No electrical system needed.

From looking at the recent AOPA video I think there's a good chance they DID see the traffic on downwind, presumed that if they could see the Cherokee, the Cherokee could probably see them, lost it in the sun as the Cherokee turned base, reacquired it too late for a successful avoidance maneuver.

 

[Half Fast]

From looking at the recent AOPA video I think there's a good chance they DID see the traffic on downwind, presumed that if they could see the Cherokee, the Cherokee could probably see them, lost it in the sun as the Cherokee turned base, reacquired it too late for a successful avoidance maneuver.

I doubt it. I don’t think they would have gone anywhere near the pattern, especially at that altitude, had they known another plane was using it.

The Cub was in a terrible location and going against the pattern direction. It’s hard to believe two pilots, one an experienced CFI, could have such awful ADM. I don’t believe they knew 29 was active.

 

[3393RP]

I have been ruminating about the fact Jack Brown's aircraft are not fitted with radios.

I suspect a motivation for this is to maintain the illusion that piloting a Cub on floats harkens back to the days of surly loners with deeply tanned and lined faces performing heroic missions to isolated communities facing certain disaster without the intervention of those brave souls. Learning to fly the original bush aircraft on floats places the student in that group.

The description of the Cubs in the fleet at Jack Brown's seems to uphold my assertion:

We operate three (3) Piper J3 Cubs on Aqua 1500 straight floats. Our Cubs, though originally built in the 1940's, have all undergone complete restorations by our veteran and highly skilled mechanics. Performance is surprising, thanks to upgraded powerplants producing nearly 100hp. With the option to fly with the doors completely open, simple and minimalistic systems and instrumentation, and the nostalgia of flying an iconic piece of American aviation history, this plane never ceases to put a smile on your face!

My observations are not meant to be accusatory. It's far from unusual for a product or service to be depicted in a manner that invokes nostalgia.

Portable COM radios with desirable features like frequency flip-flop, headset jacks, and adequate transmission and receiving range can be purchased for less than $300. Another $100-$200 adds NAV capabilities, including GPS. That's a very reasonable expenditure for such a product.

That being said, it's impossible to assert a radio in the accident aircraft would have prevented this mishap. That doesn't mean being NORDO in a crowded training environment shouldn't be reconsidered.

 

[jsstevens]

Newly rated Seaplane pilot here. The setting altimeter to 0 sitting on the water is what I was taught. Since there’s no published altitude for lakes, etc. and the level varies it makes sense for those operations. Once you start interacting with ATC and other aircraft not so much.

 

[luvflyin]

Newly rated Seaplane pilot here. The setting altimeter to 0 sitting on the water is what I was taught. Since there’s no published altitude for lakes, etc. and the level varies it makes sense for those operations. Once you start interacting with ATC and other aircraft not so much.

I see the point if you are staying right there at that lake. But if you fly off to somewhere else you maybe should have an as close to accurate reading as possible whether or not you interact with others.

 

[wanttaja]

I see the point if you are staying right there at that lake. But if you fly off to somewhere else you maybe should have an as close to accurate reading as possible whether or not you interact with others.

In Washington State (from sea level to 14,000 feet within 60 miles) that's vital.

In Florida? Not so much.

Also, a stock J-3 altimeter has just one arm...and VFR aircraft are not required to have altimeters that are adjustable for barometric pressure.

Ron Wanttaja

 

[luvflyin]

In Washington State (from sea level to 14,000 feet within 60 miles) that's vital.

In Florida? Not so much.

Also, a stock J-3 altimeter has just one arm...and VFR aircraft are not required to have altimeters that are adjustable for barometric pressure.

Ron Wanttaja

I didn’t know that, unadjustable altimeters. Do they even make them anymore?

 

[wanttaja]

I didn’t know that, unadjustable altimeters. Do they even make them anymore?

Not that I've seen, though there seem to be a lot of used ones for sale. Those looking for a perfect J-3 restoration would be searching for one.

They do still sell the single-armed versions, albeit with the ability to set the barometric pressure. Obviously, a ~50 foot difference in field elevations isn't going to be too noticeable.

Ron Wanttaja

 

[Half Fast]

But if you fly off to somewhere else you maybe should have an as close to accurate reading as possible whether or not you interact with others.

Agreed, but how would you get that altimeter reading if you don't have a radio?

 

[Half Fast]

Obviously, a ~50 foot difference in field elevations isn't going to be too noticeable.

No, but KGIF is at ~140' and a few other local airports may be a bit higher. Would 140' matter? In this instance, probably so.

 

[Zeldman]

Agreed, but how would you get that altimeter reading if you don't have a radio?

 

[RyanShort1]

At a time like this, it's really a hell of a thing.

Not really. It's not like NORDO aircraft collisions are an everyday occurance. Really, a lot of us fly planes that are minimally equipped quite a lot. It's not statistically as bad as it looks.

 

[luvflyin]

Agreed, but how would you get that altimeter reading if you don't have a radio?

Yup. That would be the point. You couldn’t interact with others to get it. So you should at least try to set it as close as you can to the altitude you are at. Not just arbitrarily zero.

 

[wanttaja]

No, but KGIF is at ~140' and a few other local airports may be a bit higher. Would 140' matter? In this instance, probably so.

You can play the "what if" altitude game for any midair...or near mid-air. Luck might have put one plane 140' higher or lower, regardless of what accuracy of altimeter they had. We don't know if one or the other airplane was changing altitude, which would throw that right out the window. The Private Pilot standard is +/- 100 feet, so these planes could have been as much as 200 feet difference in altitude even with precision altimeters. There's a lot of chance in midairs; one reason I think they upset pilots so much.

In any case, anyone who flies a PRECISE altitude in VFR conditions is really asking for it. Unless I'm in the area where the hemispheric rules apply, I don't fly at any even/500 foot altitudes. Quite happily fly the pattern at my home field a bit lower, too.

My home field (one of the busiest uncontrolled fields in the state) is scheduled to change its CTAF frequency this summer. I expect heart rates will be rising quite a bit as folks who didn't get the word come in gabbing on the old frequency and cussing all the other planes that "aren't talking."

Wrote an article about 30 years ago titled, "Do It Yourself Stealth (and How to Survive It)", about NORDO operations at uncontrolled fields. Better brush up....

Ron Wanttaja

 

[Tommar98]

I wish I had a dollar for every time that ATC called out traffic, we had them on ADS-B but still never saw them — with 2 of us looking. I like having ADS-B but it’s not a panacea IMO. If it could issue an RA like TCAS, maybe it would be more useful.

THIS. I very rarely find traffic that I see on my ADSB, which make me nervous that if I see traffic close enough that I have to take evasive action I’m probably already in the Sh$&!t. I don’t know how the Cub takes off and goes through the pattern area (which they all know about ) without any way to monitor what’s going on in that airspace?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Ed Haywood]

I'd never considered it for acro use before Dana mentioned it, but in that application QFE could make a lot of sense. Many competitors all needing to stay in the same box with the same floor, many chances for mistakes due to an erroneous setting. Simply zeroing the altimeter to the field is easy and consistent.

I always set altimeter to zero for acro flights. Eliminates the need to do math while pulling 5G.

A Thunderbird pilot crashed in an airshow because he did the math wrong. https://www.f-16.net/f-16-news-article968.html

 

[Ed Haywood]

ADS-B was never intended for pilots. It is for ATC. That is why there is only an OUT mandate, not an IN mandate.

 

[luvflyin]

I always set altimeter to zero for acro flights. Eliminates the need to do math while pulling 5G.

A Thunderbird pilot crashed in an airshow because he did the math wrong. https://www.f-16.net/f-16-news-article968.html

Makes sense when you’re staying close by the airport you departed from and will be landing back at that airport. Got me wondering though how much ‘range’ altimeters have. Like if you departed Leadville KLXV, elevation 9934, would you even be able to set it at zero?

 

[Daleandee]

ADS-B was never intended for pilots. It is for ATC. That is why there is only an OUT mandate, not an IN mandate.

Perhaps initially that could be said to be true but it's quite obvious that ADSB is a good tool for ATC & pilots. A couple of points of clarity (I know you already know these things):

"ADS-B aircraft tracking is near instantaneous and transmitted to both pilots and controllers for shared situational awareness.

ADS-B is also transmitted aircraft-to-aircraft, enabling air traffic control advances that will allow aircraft to maintain precise intervals in time and space."

https://www.faa.gov/air_traffic/technology/adsb/atc

But it is no doubt a boon for the government:

"ADS-B is now the preferred method of surveillance for air traffic control across the nation."

 

[woodchucker]

Makes sense when you’re staying close by the airport you departed from and will be landing back at that airport. Got me wondering though how much ‘range’ altimeters have. Like if you departed Leadville KLXV, elevation 9934, would you even be able to set it at zero?

I know this is more of a theoretical question but the next time I fly to Bryce KBCE elevation 7590 I’ll try to remember to test this.

 

[Spinka]

I know this is more of a theoretical question but the next time I fly to Bryce KBCE elevation 7590 I’ll try to remember to test this.

You won't even get close.. Most Kollsmann Windows have an adjustment range of slightly less than 3000', typically 28.1 - 31.0 inHg.

 

[Clip4]

NORDO needs to end, at least with a required receiver; a hundred bucks can change the world.

While you are changing the world, please tell us where you are buying these receivers for a hundred bucks and where you are getting your statistics to require this change.

The reality is NORDO is not a factor in majority mid air collisions. It’s simply a statistics thing because NORDO are such a small percentage of the aircraft flying everyday.

According to an ASI study, 51 percent of mid air collisions occurred during en route climb, cruise, or descent, and the rest resulted from formation flights or other hazardous activities. Eighty percent of the midair collisions that occurred during "normal" flight activities happened within ten miles of an airport.

That sounds cool, but if you are in a state like Florida, you are almost always within 10 miles of an airport and not constantly talking on a radio.

 

[Half Fast]

...please tell us where you are buying these receivers for a hundred bucks...

https://www.amazon.com/Uniden-BC75X...t=&hvlocphy=9010192&hvtargid=pla-524029635345

There are plenty of other examples.

And a Yaesu FTA550 transceiver is only a couple of hundred bucks or so.

Eighty percent of the midair collisions that occurred during "normal" flight activities happened within ten miles of an airport.

Since airplanes tend to congregate around airports, that's not much of a surprise.

That sounds cool, but if you are in a state like Florida, you are almost always within 10 miles of an airport and not talking on a radio.

Yes, almost always near an airport here in Florida. And anytime I'm flying near a busy airport, I monitor its CTAF or tower if I'm low or not using flight following.

As I've said previously in this thread, radios are not a panacea but they do provide an additional layer of safety. Otherwise, why use them at all in VFR flight?

 

[Ed Haywood]

Perhaps initially that could be said to be true but it's quite obvious that ADSB is a good tool for ATC & pilots.

I don't disagree, and I make a habit of monitoring it enroute and prior to pattern entry. A smart pilot takes advantage of all useful information. But ADS-B has limitations that make it inappropriate for usage in the traffic pattern, IMO, the biggest being no assurance that all other aircraft in the pattern have ADS-B out. I usually check it about 3 miles out, then switch to "head on a swivel" mode.

Side comment: a cub on floats is just marginally faster and more agile than a Chinese "weather" balloon. And it is bright yellow. My gut tells me the Cherokee CFI and student had their heads down and were preoccupied with instrumentation.

 

[ElPaso Pilot]

Side comment: a cub on floats is just marginally faster and more agile than a Chinese "weather" balloon. And it is bright yellow. My gut tells me the Cherokee CFI and student had their heads down and were preoccupied with instrumentation.

Looking at the track ends below, I think it is more likely that at this stage they were looking over their left shoulder for the "turn to base when the runway angle is at 45 degrees" moment that most students are taught.

And since they were likely announcing positions and listening, they didn't consider the NORDO cub plodding across the pattern.

Plus, the target on a collision course is not moving with regards to your line of sight. It just looks small and stationary in the windscreen until suddenly it isn't.

But I'm just pondering on the internet.

 

[NealRomeoGolf]

The aircraft that freak me out the most are in front of me and below. I have a big nose (PA32). A PA28 isn't so bad, but agree that head on is hard to see.

 

[Clip4]

https://www.amazon.com/Uniden-BC75X...t=&hvlocphy=9010192&hvtargid=pla-524029635345

There are plenty of other examples.

And a Yaesu FTA550 transceiver is only a couple of hundred bucks or so.




Since airplanes tend to congregate around airports, that's not much of a surprise.




Yes, almost always near an airport here in Florida. And anytime I'm flying near a busy airport, I monitor its CTAF or tower if I'm low or not using flight following.

As I've said previously in this thread, radios are not a panacea but they do provide an additional layer of safety. Otherwise, why use them at all in VFR flight?

Good luck telling people your position on the radio you linked.

 

[Half Fast]

Good luck telling people your position on the radio you linked.

Your comment to which I responded was concerning a radio RECEIVER for a hundred bucks. Yes, there are plenty available.

And yes, even just a simple receiver in the Cub would have been useful since we know the Warrior was using the radio to announce position and intention.

Had the Cub had even a receiver its pilot could have known which runway was in use and where the Warrior was in the pattern. (And as a side note, the Cub pilot would also have been able to set the altimeter to the correct local pressure, rather than setting it to zero altitude on the water.)

 

[RyanShort1]

Plus, the target on a collision course is not moving with regards to your line of sight. It just looks small and stationary in the windscreen until suddenly it isn't.

But if the collision happened in the turn, before the turn, they weren't necessarily on a collision course. Assuming they were higher than the Cub, I think it's plausible that the Cub might have seen them and hoped that they had been seen, possibly even lost them in the sun, then been in quite a fright as they came out of the sun directly towards them.

 

[wanttaja]

Not really. It's not like NORDO aircraft collisions are an everyday occurance. Really, a lot of us fly planes that are minimally equipped quite a lot. It's not statistically as bad as it looks.

Got curious about that.

The NTSB accident database has flags for midairs. I searched for them in my 2008-2020 database, and found 289 total aircraft involved in midairs, with 144 total midair events. This includes the foreign accidents that sometimes get listed in the NTSB's database.

(Why the odd number of aircraft? See CEN10FA115. It was a "three way," with a Cirrus running into a towplane pulling a glider).

There were about 22,000 total accidents in that period, meaning midairs are involved in roughly 0.7% of the accidents. In 62 of the 144 midairs (~43%) no one was killed. Another 26 saw only one fatality, so there's a 50-50 chance you'll survive a typical midair.

Fifteen of the midairs involved planes trying to fly in formation or as a group flight. These were NOT just homebuilts. Surprising variation. In a couple of cases, the intent was to take pictures. Couple of balloons bumping together, a few cases bumping into drones.

Nine midairs involved gliders. In four of the cases, gliders bumped during soaring competitions.

Skimmed through the listing to find cases involving NORDO aircraft. Nine cases (not including the foreign accidents). But....

One involved two ultralights. Three cases involved powered parachute aircraft. Another case involved two crop-dusters running into each other, Another involved a glider with its own tow plane. None of these cases involved collision with a Cessna, Piper, etc.

So of those nine NORDO cases, only three were what we would consider "conventional" NORDO...an antique, classic, or homebuilt aircraft without a radio. They were a pair of float planes (Super Cubs) taking off from a lake, a Pitts Special and a Piper Cherokee, and a Taylorcraft and a Cessna 185. That's three cases in thirteen years.

Not much of a risk, and frankly, I doubt there many new pilots willing to fly without a radio these days. It's not like the ranks of NORDO drivers is increasing.

It's kind of difficult to establish the degree of communication involved in the remaining cases. If the pilots are killed, it may be difficult to establish whether they made position calls. I found definite claims of both parties making position calls in 27 of the 144 cases. In a couple of instances, the pilots admitted they'd dialed in the wrong frequency.

The NTSB record includes flags that tell what the phase of flight was for the midairs. The results were kind of interesting.

The "occurrence phases" are the NTSB's terminology, not mine. Sure, there are plenty of cases related to traffic around an airport...but note the various "enroute" categories and the "Maneuvering" categories. Over half are happening OUTSIDE the traffic patterns. Some were in conventional cruise, but it seemed many happened in practice areas. Radios aren't likely to help as much, though ADS-B out *and* in might help, especially, if all the local FBO's aircraft are so equipped.

Ron Wanttaja

 

[Vance Breese]

Thank you Ron Wanttaja!

I love the way you manage and present statistics.

I came to similar conclusion when I imagined the hazard from all the NORDO cubs at a large West Coast Fly In and checked the accident statistics finding few accidents and none from NORDO.

I still prefer flying around pilots who give good radio.

 

[Half Fast]

Thanks, Ron. You're always great at digging up stats.

What those figures don't tell, though, (and in fact cannot tell) is the number of mid-air collisions that were avoided because pilots were communicating their positions over the radio, nor do they show how many were avoided because of assists from flight following or ADSB.

Multiple times ATC has moved me to avoid traffic while I was on FF, and many times another pilot and I have made adjustments in the pattern by coordinating over CTAF. Nobody keeps a count of those. Would we have more mid-airs if no one was using a radio? Certainly, IMHO.

 

[Lindberg]

What those figures don't tell, though, (and in fact cannot tell) is the number of mid-air collisions that were avoided because pilots were communicating their positions over the radio, nor do they show how many were avoided because of assists from flight following or ADSB.

Nobody is talking about taking away radios and ADSB from planes that have them, so I don't see the relevance. If the question is whether more planes should have radios, the answer will be found in the statistics on planes that don't have them today.

 

[Half Fast]

Nobody is talking about taking away radios and ADSB from planes that have them, so I don't see the relevance. If the question is whether more planes should have radios, the answer will be found in the statistics on planes that don't have them today.

No, it's really more simple than that. Do radios make us safer? Clearly, yes they do. Just how much safety we will never know, because most planes do have radios and avoided incidents are not reported. BUT, radios do add a layer of safety. Therefore, safety will increase if NORDO planes add radios.

That increase might be very small, some would say insignificant, but it might have been very significant to four people in Winter Haven.

If someone chooses to fly over Iowa cornfields NORDO, no big deal. But to fly NORDO in the Winter Haven airport area, when $200 handhelds are available, is poor judgment and creates an unneccessary additional risk.

 

[RyanShort1]

Somebody count how many logical fallacies are in the post above.

 

[Ed Haywood]

Seems reasonable to me.

 

[Albany Tom]

That stat presentation is amazing! My take away is that during the period investigated, about .013% of the accidents were mid-airs with part 91 radio equipped aircraft and a nordo aircraft, or about 1 in 7800 in terms of that being involved in accident....and it doesn't even mean that nordo was a cause, only that there may be that correlation.

My take away from that percentage is that the current regulations are fine, and that what people are currently doing to minimize risk of nordo operation is generally working. That's even without knowing if there's any actual impact of norad on increasing likelihood of an accident. I would not assume that it does.

 

[Racerx]

Is 1 in 7800 planes nordo? I have no idea. But I know there's significantly less NORDO out there.

WinterHaven is an an interesting case study. With essentially two airports on top of one another with potentially conflicting patterns. You have a vast majority of KGIF using radios and then what, 50/50 on a plane being NORDO at Jack Brown's?

The NTSB will be... interesting.

 

[woodchucker]

pilots who give good radio.

Ummmmmm …. Phrasing?