So, what technology gives the best fatality reduction per AMU? Shouldn't we pursue the most effective technology and not the least?
Radios? ADSB (Has the mid air rate gone down as ADSB equip rates have gone up?) Accurate fuel gauges? Medicals? Weather radar? More inspections? Ritalin? More training? Mandatory cog screen? Bucket hats?
Depends on whose AMUs you're talking about.
From the point of view of the pilot's wallet, the best fatality reduction is the complete elimination of uncontrolled flight. Towers and radars at ALL airports, takeoff, landing, and all enroute actions controlled by ATC, NWS must certify that the weather is suitable for the requested flight, MDs must examine all pilots prior to takeoff and administer alcohol and drug tests, and FAA examiners must verify that the pilot has sufficient training and skill for each flight. All aircraft must have radios, transponders, and ADS-B.
After all, safety is 100% paramount...right? Of course, humans are still going to be humans. You'll see a reduction (not an elimination!) in Continued VFR into IFR Conditions, saving at the most 25-50 lives per year (all estimates are rough), 10-25 deaths due to pilot incapacitation per year, etc. But pilots are still going to mess up, and unless the feds have remote control the aircraft, they're still going to try to fly routes they shouldn't. Remember, all maintenance (other than Experimentals) is ALREADY controlled by FAA regulations, and is performed by FAA-licensed technicians.
If you're just wanting to reduce midairs, from the point of view of the pilot's wallet, the best approach is for the Government to supply, install, and maintain the equipment people insisting are necessary for safe flight. All the antique/classic aircraft get shielded magnetos and radios, all aircraft get transponders and ADS-B Out and In. There's about 4,000 Cubs on the registry and about 2,500 Aeronca Champs. Let's assume there are another few thousand odds and sods and that 10,000 airplanes need new mags, radios, and ADS B. $2,500 for the mags, $2,000 for the radio, $5,000 for the transponder (including labor). Round that up as well, and we're looking at $100M...a drop in the bucket, in the Federal budget, and it's (mostly) a one-time expenditure (you implement a requirement that new aircraft must include the equipment in their baseline cost). Double that to put transponders and ADS-B into the lucky few that don't have it already.
All to reduce...not eliminate, no way to guarantee that... about 20 deaths from midair collisions each year, or 0.35 deaths per year in midairs involving NORDO airplanes. Remember, some of the midairs are occurring at controlled fields, some are happening to aircraft operating at uncontrolled fields close to each other. Won't eliminate them all.
For those who are complaining about NORDO aircraft, the solution is simple: Walk up to the owners and say, "I'll pay for shielded mags, a radio, and ADS-B out". After all, if *they* don't feel endangered, why should they pay for equipment to make *you* feel safer?
Ron Wanttaja