Let's Discuss Manned EVTOL's

[Jim K]

From what little I've followed it, Joby has the only multiseat design that has actually done any real flight testing. They built two and have crashed one of them, but it looks like a machine with potential. The problem is that batteries simply don't have the energy density to do the job. You can get away with it in ground based vehicles where size and weight don't really matter, but the laws of physics are laws, not suggestions. I don't personally think batteries will ever improve enough to make a true evtol viable (almost certainly not this decade), but I admit I could be wrong.

I could see a case for distributed electric propulsion being safer, simpler, quieter, and cheaper than traditional helicopters when paired with a combustion generator of some kind. That's a harder sell to the VC firms that want green cred though.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

We need to see videos of the crashes.

 

[TCABM]

I know a lot of eVTOL's are just concept art, but even amongst these you don't have any favorite's in terms of aesthetics alone?

No. That’s like getting excited over a wet dream.

 

[TCABM]

We need to see videos of the crashes.

Gryder probably sees an untapped market for his work…

 

[skier]

1) What is your favorite EVTOL in terms of aesthetic design and why? I don’t follow the market enough to have an opinion, but they look fun.

2) What application of EVTOL's are you most excited for and why? I have yet to see a use case other than personal recreation that makes sense.

3) Would you be interested in an EVTOL racing series and why? Probably not. Air racing in all its incarnations is just pretty boring to watch on TV.

4) How much would you be willing to pay for an EVTOL for recreational use? Sell if for less than $20k USD and I may be interested

 

[Bell206]

What kind of license do you need to fly a VTOL?

Depends. But there is a difference between VTOL and eVTOL. For example, on the eTVOL side, if it fits under ultralight rules like the Jetson no certificate needed to fly.

To be fair, no one ever said specifically “by the end of this year”.

From a certification point, it was this year the 1st eVTOLs entered the final stages of approval to include the Chinese versions. However, as I recall the Chinese aircraft have been flying since 2018.

Joby has the only multiseat design that has actually done any real flight testing.

Its dated, but there are at least a dozen or more multiseat eVTOLs flying in various stages of development with more overseas and in the EU. Joby simply has the most money behind it and has expanded their certification submissions overseas as well to cover all bases. Whoever gets certified 1st in the US/EU market will have a foot up on a number of levels. Even though Joby will probably be the 1st to get a TC, the FAA is trailing in that department with more than double the aircraft going through EASA certificate at the moment. And since the FAA has moved to a different certification schedule now it may hold them back further. Time will tell.

I don't personally think batteries will ever improve enough to make a true evtol viable

Within its initial target market on the UAM side, the current battery specs, range, payloads, etc. already fit that requirement. In the AAM market not so much. So from all the research, studies, wishful thinking out there, its anticipated the entire eVTOL market will grow to $30B by 2030. Hence all the money being invested now. While there is a green component to eVTOLs its more a feature by design than the driving force behind this market.

 

[dans2992]

The biggest barrier will be public acceptance.

Even assuming the cost and passenger safety issues are (somewhat) addressed, there would be very few locations that would allow them to land. Helicopters have the same issue. If you’re limited to landing at airports - there is no practical purpose for them.

 

[skier]

Within its initial target market on the UAM side, the current battery specs, range, payloads, etc. already fit that requirement. In the AAM market not so much. So from all the research, studies, wishful thinking out there, its anticipated the entire eVTOL market will grow to $30B by 2030. Hence all the money being invested now. While there is a green component to eVTOLs its more a feature by design than the driving force behind this market.

Urban air mobility doesn’t make sense to me for these projects. It doesn’t matter what the power source is, flight is significantly less efficient than ground based transportation methods. As we’re trying to go towards sustainability, UAM development is just trying to cash in on something that will never see the light of day.

 

[midwestpa24]

The biggest barrier will be public acceptance.

Even assuming the cost and passenger safety issues are (somewhat) addressed, there would be very few locations that would allow them to land. Helicopters have the same issue. If you’re limited to landing at airports - there is no practical purpose for them.

While I agree with you, I'd also add in the cost. The general public, with few exceptions, are going to want to see this service priced around the cost of an Uber/Lyft/taxi ride. Maybe would be willing to pay a small premium for convenience, but probably not a lot.

So the question is at what price point does this operation break-even over traditional ground based transportation? 50% higher, 100% higher, etc? And at that price point, how large is your customer base?

 

[IK04]

eHang has been approved for carrying passengers in limited areas.

It's an "Air taxi," so does that count as a "Manned EVTOL?"

 

[dans2992]

“Blade” runs helicopter service from Manhattan to the NYC airports. The one time I “splurged” on a “by the seat” ride, I was the only passenger. They must be losing their a**.

 

[Velocity173]

I see a lot of promises but not much proof. Lilium being a perfect example. Been developing that thing forever and not even close to being a viable form of transportation.

 

[Daleandee]

eHang has been approved for carrying passengers in limited areas.

It's an "Air taxi," so does that count as a "Manned EVTOL?"

I posted a vid about them earlier. To answer (not) your question, I really don't know. From what little I've looked at them it seems to be a "get in it and tell it where to take you" kind of thing with a manned, ground based, flight center that watches the flight as another source of redundancy/safety ...

 

[Bell206]

Urban air mobility doesn’t make sense to me for these projects.

That's what I thought when I first got involved. But the only reason there is a burgeoning eVTOL industry is directly due to the research, studies, surveys done on UAM and AAM. Most public info is dated but the numbers were impressive enough to generate billions in private investment. In my opinion, provided these things don't drop out the sky and kill people it looks to take off in a dramatic fashion.

If you’re limited to landing at airports - there is no practical purpose for them.

The infrastructure plan is to build special vertiports to support and provide access to the eVTOLs. They've broken ground on several in the EU/UK with progress being made on 100s more globally in key areas.

what price point does this operation break-even over traditional ground based transportation?

Some of the eVTOL OEMs have released costs. I don't know any current numbers but comparisons were being made to competing at Uber Black costs.

“Blade” runs helicopter service from Manhattan to the NYC airports. The one time I “splurged” on a “by the seat” ride, I was the only passenger. They must be losing their a**.

FYI: Last I read, they had a couple record quarters recently. Don't know if I'd buy stock in it but they use a different business plan and have done better than others. I think the key is they move more than just people to make a buck. Its my understanding they plan to add eVTOLs to their stable once they get up and running.

These are just my personal observations on where this market is going from some ad hoc stuff I do, nothing more. If this was 8-10 years ago I probably would have jumped in instead of retired. Interesting times.

 

[midwestpa24]

Some of the eVTOL OEMs have released costs. I don't know any current numbers but comparisons were being made to competing at Uber Black costs.

I question how realistic those costs are though. Are they including amortization of the acquisition cost? Insurance? Maintenance? Or is it just the cost of electricity per mile?

Until one gets put in service and has to show a defined profit margin to continue operating, it's all just vaporware to me.

 

[Bell206]

Are they including amortization of the acquisition cost? Insurance? Maintenance? Or is it just the cost of electricity per mile?

Don't follow the financials much except for certain DOCs but don't know how they plan to pay their investors back. Regardless, its not often when you see such levels of money flow into a new aviation venture with zero track record. A rather diverse group is seeing $$$ in that same vaporware to the tune of billions on hand to make it work and I would assume with a potential ROI.

 

[Salty]

Climate change. A multi-trillion dollar industry that produces nothing but virtue signaling.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Yes, and no. There is a wealth of information here, and the input from people that fly helicopters for a living (does anyone here fly them for fun?) is valuable.

Is there a wealth of information here? Many of the responses here and other threads have more speculation and misinformation than the mainstream media.

 

[midwestpa24]

Don't follow the financials much except for certain DOCs but don't know how they plan to pay their investors back. Regardless, its not often when you see such levels of money flow into a new aviation venture with zero track record. A rather diverse group is seeing $$$ in that same vaporware to the tune of billions on hand to make it work and I would assume with a potential ROI.

Climate change. A multi-trillion dollar industry that produces nothing but virtue signaling.

A lot of it is just what Salty is saying, a lot of companies are investing in "green" alternatives if nothing more than for the PR headlines.

Also investors also don't always know much about what they are investing in. A lot of people buy the hype, and want to be the early investor in the next big thing. Imagine buying into Apple back in the 80s, my dad did and retired early.

Just think of the Raptor aircraft. When it was first announced, it sounded way too good to be true. 300 kts, pressurized, 6 people and bags, all for $100k, and people invested. But for anyone with a basic understanding of aviation and physics, realized those performance numbers were impossible without some revolution in aerodynamics.

I think the same about all this Crypto currency. Let's create something out of thin air, convince the world it has value even though it doesn't exist, and sit back and let people go nuts for it driving up its value. Sounds like a Ponzi scheme to me.

 

[Brad Z]

I know I've mentioned this before, but I think a big driver of the eVTOL industry is SPACs--Special purpose acquisition companies. It's basically crowdfunding using the stock market.

Many of these companies realized that they could access Venture Capital funding for only so long before they'd run out. Instead they needed to tap into a new source of funding: Gen Zers with a Robinhood account and a few bucks. They all feel like they missed out on getting rich off of crypto or Tesla so they want to get in on the ground floor of the next big idea. EVTOLs offer that perfect balance of jetsons, sustainability, and disruptor technology that’s irresistible to these young investors. As a result, these start ups literally have billions in cash to spend, just waiting for battery technology to catch up.

SPACs basically facilitate these start ups to publically trade before even a dollar of revenue is ever generated.

 

[Bell206]

A lot of it is just what Salty is saying, a lot of companies are investing in "green" alternatives if nothing more than for the PR headlines.

FWIW: You’ll find the concept of UAM predates any green initiatives to include the term “climate change” and was performed solely by helicopters in the past. However, it systematically failed because there was no feasible/technical method to take that service to the masses at street level. As electric drone technology evolved it relit the fire under UAM and the subsequent investments. The fact it was electrical technical advancements, i.e., “green” technology, that made UAM economically feasible was a bonus rather than the precursor. In other words, even if there were no “green” issues, UAM with eVTOLs would have still happened as they’ve been working on the concept for as long as I’ve been in aviation.

 

[Sac Arrow]

Is there a wealth of information here? Many of the responses here and other threads have more speculation and misinformation than the mainstream media.

I never said it always comes out.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

The DOT com bubble is coming....3-2-1....in a few months.

The last push is a clawing grasp for another fuel source. Many of these big players are now trying to convert from Lithium batteries to Hydrogen to improve range/run-time. It's getting interesting.... lol

I know I've mentioned this before, but I think a big driver of the eVTOL industry is SPACs--Special purpose acquisition companies. It's basically crowdfunding using the stock market.

Many of these companies realized that they could access Venture Capital funding for only so long before they'd run out. Instead they needed to tap into a new source of funding: Gen Zers with a Robinhood account and a few bucks. They all feel like they missed out on getting rich off of crypto or Tesla so they want to get in on the ground floor of the next big idea. EVTOLs offer that perfect balance of jetsons, sustainability, and disruptor technology that’s irresistible to these young investors. As a result, these start ups literally have billions in cash to spend, just waiting for battery technology to catch up.

SPACs basically facilitate these start ups to publically trade before even a dollar of revenue is ever generated.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Many of these big players are now trying to convert from Lithium batteries to Hydrogen to improve range/run-time. It's getting interesting.... lol

Yep. Scientists are still working on improving the energy density of hydrogen. Even liquid hydrogen isn't very energy dense. That's something Henning never understood. One can fill a hydrogen tank faster than charging a battery, but that's its only advantage. The best source of energy dense hydrogen is still liquid fuels AFAIK

 

[Bell206]

Even liquid hydrogen isn't very energy dense.

How does the energy density compare between its use in a fuel cell to make electricity and its use directly in a ICE? I never could understand how exactly a fuel cell works to run a motor. Does a hydrogen fuel cell out perform a battery bank when running an electric motor under load?

 

[Half Fast]

1) What is your favorite EVTOL in terms of aesthetic design and why?

In terms of aesthetic design?! What a ridiculous criteria. The aesthetics of these things suck. And aesthetics are far, far less important than functionality. EVTOL companies are putting emphasis on cool-looking designs to lure suckers into investing.

Wouldn't it be more meaningful to ask about favorite EVTOLs in terms of payload, airspeed, maneuverability, endurance,...?

2) What application of EVTOL's are you most excited for and why?

Deceiving ill-informed investors. EVTOLs are the alpacas of aviation, luring investors with slick marketing. Given the realities of energy storage, the EVTOLs currently being promoted are about one step better than time machines and perpetual motion devices. But people with more money than technical knowledge will pour in some bucks. P. T. Barnum would be proud.

3) Would you be interested in an EVTOL racing series and why?

No. Too slow, and the intent is that they can be flown with very little pilot skill. I like racing that involves high speed and rewards human skill. Good racing is a competition between people.

4) How much would you be willing to pay for an EVTOL for recreational use?

$0.00 Why would I buy something with less utility and less performance than the plane I already own? And if I had some mad money lying around, I'd probably put it into a new plane or upgrading what I have.


Pay some attention to what the EVTOL companies are actually promoting. They're presenting fancy looking vehicles; they are NOT presenting any breakthrough solutions to energy storage, which is the key enabler. All of them seem to be raking in investor dollars while waiting around for the magical fairy-dust & unicorn-fart battery to appear and make their vehicle suddenly practical. If you read actual engineering journals you'll come to understand just how far away we are from having adequate energy storage.

So far, EVTOLs are a marketing triumph and a technical bust.

 

[RyanShort1]

If anything, I would allow for racing as the first thing these puppies should be doing. Racing pushes the technology with financial incentives and leaves passengers out of the equation. It the public sees good races and reliability, they might be more inclined to ride in them, too.

 

[TCABM]

If anything, I would allow for racing as the first thing these puppies should be doing...

Ask and ye shall receive.

“The Pulitzer Electric Aircraft Race! The first Pulitzer Electric Aircraft Race, planned for May 2023, will be a four day, 1,000 nm cross-country event beginning in Omaha, NE and ending near Kitty Hawk, NC. The race will be open to piloted aerodynes of all types using zero-emission electric propulsion (e.g., fixed wing aeroplanes, helicopters, or multi-rotor eVTOL Advanced Air Mobility [AAM] vehicles). “

https://naa.aero/events/pulitzer-el...IRVu32FSi_Yfx782nTixPytYMmRueR3K5voxKBkfrFuUg

 

[Half Fast]

Ask and ye shall receive.

“The Pulitzer Electric Aircraft Race! The first Pulitzer Electric Aircraft Race, planned for May 2023, will be a four day, 1,000 nm cross-country event beginning in Omaha, NE and ending near Kitty Hawk, NC. The race will be open to piloted aerodynes of all types using zero-emission electric propulsion (e.g., fixed wing aeroplanes, helicopters, or multi-rotor eVTOL Advanced Air Mobility [AAM] vehicles). “

https://naa.aero/events/pulitzer-el...IRVu32FSi_Yfx782nTixPytYMmRueR3K5voxKBkfrFuUg

Four days to conduct a 1000nm race, and race elapsed time will exclude maintenance and recharging time. Says something about the readiness of these vehicles for the market, no?

 

[Cap'n Jack]

How does the energy density compare between its use in a fuel cell to make electricity and its use directly in a ICE? I never could understand how exactly a fuel cell works to run a motor. Does a hydrogen fuel cell out perform a battery bank when running an electric motor under load?

A fuel cell is twice as efficient as an ICE, the fuel cells are ~40-60% efficient compared to ~35 % for an ICE. I'm being generous in choosing the upper range of the fuel cell. Consider a fuel cell to be a battery that generates electricity. Hydrogen gets oxidized by giving up its electrons- those electrons become an electrical current. The ionized hydrogen reacts with oxygen to make water.
I suspect the fuel cell and the battery perform equally well running a motor- my best guess.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Four days to conduct a 1000nm race, and race elapsed time will exclude maintenance and recharging time. Says something about the readiness of these vehicles for the market, no?

About the same as for early planes?

 

[Half Fast]

About the same as for early planes?

Yes, but these vehicles face competition from modern planes to show themselves ready for prime time. Flight is no longer new. And the format of this race does not support promises that EVTOLs will be in commercial use within a couple of years.

Let’s see EVTOLs race conventional aircraft.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Yes, but these vehicles face competition from modern planes to show themselves ready for prime time. Flight is no longer new. And the format of this race does not support promises that EVTOLs will be in commercial use within a couple of years.

Let’s see EVTOLs race conventional aircraft.

Let early planes race trains. Or for that matter, let cars of that time race trains. If I remember correctly, you didn't think much of electric cars either not long ago.

 

[TCABM]

Four days to conduct a 1000nm race, and race elapsed time will exclude maintenance and recharging time. Says something about the readiness of these vehicles for the market, no?

Dunno? I mean we’ve already put men on the moon multiples times, yet NASA is starting from scratch with unmanned Artemis flights. Does that say something about NASAs readiness to put astronauts in space?

I think the number of entrants and finishers could be informative on the state of the tech though.

 

[Half Fast]

Let early planes race trains. Or for that matter, let cars of that time race trains. If I remember correctly, you didn't think much of electric cars either not long ago.

Today planes have to compete against planes, as that’s the marketplace.

And I don’t think much of electric cars now, and I resent my taxes subsidizing them.

 

[Half Fast]

Does that say something about NASAs readiness to put astronauts in space?

Possibly, but I think it says more about today’s willingness to accept risk and our expectations for success.

 

[TCABM]

Possibly, but I think it says more about today’s willingness to accept risk and our expectations for success.

NASA sent astronauts in orbit on Soyuz spacecraft as far back as 1975 and risk management is in question? We’ve been to the moon before. Some of those dudes are still alive.

Space may be hard, but going back to the moon is literally nothing new. We did it with slide rules and cigarettes. At least with the e-plane race, the organizers are challenging state of tech. It really kind of reminds of those challenegs Rutan took on with project like Voyager and AeroVironment’s Helios.

 

[Checkout_my_Six]

News flash….NASA didn’t do it. Their contractors made it happen.

 

[RyanShort1]

Possibly, but I think it says more about today’s willingness to accept risk and our expectations for success.

Some of that may be a good thing.

 

[Cap'n Jack]

Today planes have to compete against planes, as that’s the marketplace.

And I don’t think much of electric cars now, and I resent my taxes subsidizing them.

But early planes and cars didn’t race trains, although that was the marketplace at that time.

I suspect that you don’t think much of anything new. You don’t resent your taxes subsidizing regular ICE cars?