I’m calling the peak

hindsight2020 said:
I understand what you're pointing at, but it's a distinction without difference. I need housing now regardless, like they needed it then. Available stock is apples to apples, regardless of what form it's available in. You're pointing at the marginal utility of housing, and yes that is a comparison that doesn't have a parallel. But that's not what I'm highlighting though.

Additionally, median price as posted, was of the entire existing stock, not just new. So the prices do include resale of the old stock of "six pack" nuggets, which are part of today's resale market.
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There's always the option to buy a small piece of land 45 minutes from the interstate and throw a double wide or modular on it, hell even a single wide. That's available now. But not figured into your median price.

https://www.modularhomes.com/double-wides/

You'd could be in it for under 120k.
 
EdFred said:
There's always the option to buy a small piece of land 45 minutes from the interstate and throw a double wide or modular on it, hell even a single wide. That's available now. But not figured into your median price.

https://www.modularhomes.com/double-wides/

You'd could be in it for under 120k.
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I would love to see the look on any under-30 person's face when that was presented as an option. Like I would hang it on the wall (in the mother-in-law guest room), such would be its perfect mix of contempt, hatred, and revulsion. :D
 
EdFred said:
There's always the option to buy a small piece of land 45 minutes from the interstate and throw a double wide or modular on it, hell even a single wide. That's available now. But not figured into your median price.

https://www.modularhomes.com/double-wides/

You'd could be in it for under 120k.
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We may need nomenclature clarification here. Tolerance for wind resistance is of consequence. Define modular. They may be misappropriating the term, in terms of how real estate is classified.

Things have changed in the prefabricated space. If you're talking about a modular home as I understand it today; meaning, a home built in pieces in a factory, then assembled in site on a permanent foundation? By all means sign me up, I don't think we can do it for under 120k though.

If you mean a manufactured home (post 1976), or mobile home (pre-1976), the things that sit on a chassis, yeah that's not anywhere comparable to a site built home equivalent, when the summer storms come a knocking. Modular homes are. Which is why that website is confusing. Furthermore, not all jurisdictions will even allow you to classify the manufactured home as real property even if you slap a permanent foundation on it. Devil's in the details. In principle I wouldn't be opposed to modular home living, provided we're talking wind rating structural equivalent to site-built (stick) homes, and permanent foundation (pier and beam or otherwise).
 
hindsight2020 said:
We may need nomenclature clarification here. Tolerance for wind resistance is of consequence. Define modular. They may be misappropriating the term, in terms of how real estate is classified.

Things have changed in the prefabricated space. If you're talking about a modular home as I understand it today; meaning, a home built in pieces in a factory, then assembled in site on a permanent foundation? By all means sign me up, I don't think we can do it for under 120k though.

If you mean a manufactured home (post 1976), or mobile home (pre-1976), the things that sit on a chassis, yeah that's not anywhere comparable to a site built home equivalent, when the summer storms come a knocking. Modular homes are. Which is why that website is confusing. Furthermore, not all jurisdictions will even allow you to classify the manufactured home as real property even if you slap a permanent foundation on it. Devil's in the details. In principle I wouldn't be opposed to modular home living, provided we're talking wind rating structural equivalent to site-built (stick) homes, and permanent foundation (pier and beam or otherwise).
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Either one. About 3 miles from me is a really nice double wide community. Clubhouse, pool (I believe) everything is well maintained. And the double wides in there aren't on a chassis. They also arent made like they were built on site either. And this is in a township that won't let you ha e more that 1 detached structure, etc. Either way you can get a non-stickbuilt-drop-it-on-a-foundation and put it in the vast majority of the US - land wise. Obviously trying to drop one in East Snobsburg won't happen. But if you grab an acre or 2 for 20k pour a slab, drill a well, put in septic, you'll still be in for under 100k. Will they stand up to an F2 or F3? Probably not, but neither will a lot of stick builts.

Modulars run a little less than stick built - at least last I looked - but can be done ina hurry.
 
Sundancer said:
I remember rates in the mid-teens, perhaps as high as 18%. Inflation was brutal, double-digits, and the Fed had bolloxed managment of the money supply for a long while; they printed it with reckless abandon - full employment was the goal, and inflation wasn't a rel worry.

I saw a stat recently, we (the US) are short about 3.5 million housing "units". CA is hurting in particular - NIMBY policies, permitting excesses, etc. Unintended consequences stuff. . .I do know my son and his family are sitting tight on a 2.something mortgage on the east coast. They'd consider a local move for convenience and life-style reasons. But not at today's rates. So that's one more house not on the market, and there is precious little available where they'd like to move to.

6% doesn't scare me, but he (and his peers) balk at that. . .
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My first home at age 26 was at an interest rate of 12%. Inflation was near 18%.
 
Rcmutz said:
My first home at age 26 was at an interest rate of 12%. Inflation was near 18%.
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Do you remember how long it took before you started feeling as though your purchasing power got "better again"? I ask because that might provide us with the conditions where we could expect need to be met before we can start climbing out of this cost of living hole crisis we got going on in the Country, even if on a psychological basis.
 
schmookeeg said:
I would love to see the look on any under-30 person's face when that was presented as an option. Like I would hang it on the wall (in the mother-in-law guest room), such would be its perfect mix of contempt, hatred, and revulsion. :D
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I'm about 30 min from the interstate.

I bought the property when I was 23 it was 5 acres with 2 homes, and a detached garage that pretty much needed to be rebuilt as well. One was a tear down. The other was 1400sq ft. I remodeled that one and rented it out. Tore the junk house down and built my house by myself. Foundation and all. Concrete and hickory floors (from trees that were on the property), and insulation were the only thing I didn't do myself. Was able to re-use the well and septic. As long as 1 house was under 1,000 sq ft, the county would allow it as they consider it an accessory dwelling. If I can ever trick a lady to settle down I'll tear the other one down and build a bigger house further back on the property that overlooks my dad/neighbors pond. The next house will have a walk in freezer.
 
Randomskylane said:
Sounds like 1986

Lol I wish kept that house 89k to 500k
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Pretty close, used home in 1985. Bought a new construction home in 1987, at 10% Didn’t really feel like I was getting ahead until around 1990/1991. Refinanced at 8%. And then again in early 2000 to 6.25%. Paid off in 2012. Paid cash for current home, so doesn’t matter to me what the mortgage rates are. I’ve got mine so, all I will say is elections have consequences. ;)
 
I had some dealings in local gov't earlier this century - blue states, particularly in metro and close-in suburbs, can have brutal permitting costs, bordering on extortion. And loooong lead times. The builders howl in the pubic meetings, then quietly carry on and roll the expense into the sales price. I've never been in the business, but one developer laid out a pretty cogent argument for NOT building town-home/smaller homes. He had an agenda, of course, but doesn't mean he wasn't on point. In a nice way he told the city "I build McMansions to maximize return. There isn't near the profit in smaller units after "expenses." It was pretty clear he meant the glacial approval process, costs of permits/fees/impact surcharges/etc..

If I had a crystal ball I'd peer in to see how pervasive and sustained the new work-from-home normal remains. I noticed many of my new neighbors in coastal NC are tax and political refugees from the NE. And was surprised by how many were NOT retirees. A family member nearby is taking a job with a company in the DC area and will be working from home. He expects to travel there maybe once or twice a year. . .
 
Sundancer said:
I had some dealings in local gov't earlier this century - blue states, particularly in metro and close-in suburbs, can have brutal permitting costs, bordering on extortion. And loooong lead times. The builders howl in the pubic meetings, then quietly carry on and roll the expense into the sales price. I've never been in the business, but one developer laid out a pretty cogent argument for NOT building town-home/smaller homes. He had an agenda, of course, but doesn't mean he wasn't on point. In a nice way he told the city "I build McMansions to maximize return. There isn't near the profit in smaller units after "expenses." It was pretty clear he meant the glacial approval process, costs of permits/fees/impact surcharges/etc..

If I had a crystal ball I'd peer in to see how pervasive and sustained the new work-from-home normal remains. I noticed many of my new neighbors in coastal NC are tax and political refugees from the NE. And was surprised by how many were NOT retirees. A family member nearby is taking a job with a company in the DC area and will be working from home. He expects to travel there maybe once or twice a year. . .
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It's why houses in suburbia are all the same...or 2 different styles in a subdivision. It was a nightmare going through permitting. 12 different levels of permits or something stupid like that, and if the energy heel on your truss is 8" instead of 12", they'll deny the application saying the heel isn't big enough. But not how big they want it, and won't let it pass to the next level. So you have to start all over again when you resubmit. Giving the health department another look at the previously approved septic plan and not liking something and tossing it for something mundane.
 
Maybe this has been covered in previous posts so forgive me for asking. Will the cost of buying a cessna 172 or cherokee come back down to "normal" any time soon? I am getting impatient.
 
ahmad said:
Maybe this has been covered in previous posts so forgive me for asking. Will the cost of buying a cessna 172 or cherokee come back down to "normal" any time soon? I am getting impatient.
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Probably not. There’s a finite number of serviceable Cherokee’s, and Cessna 172s left. every week there are fewer due to crashes hurricanes tornadoes, whatever. I would look for models that flight schools don’t use. Like Beech musketeers. Meanwhile, because of BasicMed and other externalities, the number of pilots is going up.
Now my turn. Will the prices of half ton pick ups go up or down in the next year?
 
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ahmad said:
Maybe this has been covered in previous posts so forgive me for asking. Will the cost of buying a cessna 172 or cherokee come back down to "normal" any time soon? I am getting impatient.
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Popular trainers are unlikely to go down. My local flight school, over the past couple of years has done from 3 172s to 5. Multiply by many flight schools.......
 
Cessna 182s are going back up (they stayed flat for a bit, but never went down). Unbelievable, but I need to up the value for my insurance again.
 
Pinecone said:
Popular trainers are unlikely to go down. My local flight school, over the past couple of years has done from 3 172s to 5. Multiply by many flight schools.......
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So along those lines, and with most everything being in cycles, when will there be enough pilots for the flight training market to slow down? I know that's predicting more than a couple of unknowns...including how air travel is going to go in the next few years. The only things I'll predict is that we can't be far from the bottom end on what prices can be, and most people in this country aren't going to go back to bus or train travel. As wages go down and costs go up, are average people just going to travel and vacation less?
 
MountainDude said:
Cessna 182s are going back up (they stayed flat for a bit, but never went down). Unbelievable, but I need to up the value for my insurance again.
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Sad. On a somewhat related note, I just got my property tax assessment today. They think my house is worth what???? Bought my house 4 1/2 years ago when we moved here for a job change. I couldn't afford to buy my house today. I think it's the same with planes. I could have bought something 4 years ago - I can't now, and don't see me ever now.
 
Property taxes on experimental/homebuilt planes can be really crazy. I went to the tax office to complain about a bill they sent for one of the planes I owned several years ago. I asked the tax lady where they get their values from. She had been to the kit manufacturer's web site and found the highest dollar model to base my taxes on. When she told me what it was worth I told her I would sell it to her for half that amount and we'd both be over joyed because she would get it at half price and I would still make a good profit over and above what I paid for it.

There ought to be a law ... :rolleyes:
 
WDD said:
Sad. On a somewhat related note, I just got my property tax assessment today. They think my house is worth what???? Bought my house 4 1/2 years ago when we moved here for a job change. I couldn't afford to buy my house today. I think it's the same with planes. I could have bought something 4 years ago - I can't now, and don't see me ever now.
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Same boat. I'm up 246% since 2012 when I bought for 176.. Luckily the bee's save me 4.5amu's on the taxes
 
charheep said:
The number of listings on TAP and Controller seem to be climbing. So maybe the peak is soon?
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The peak has been soon for 12 months now.

I just gave up on my dream of a 2nd home for this year. Put half my funds in a CD and the other half in stocks. I'll try again next summer.

IMO, buyer focus should be on inventory, not price. If there are only a few of something (house, airplane, truck) for sale, odds are higher of having to compromise on issues. With normal inventory levels, you can be more selective in which ones you pursue. You pay the price you pay. At least get a good one for that price.
 
Points of reference:

I bought a two year old boat a year ago, sold it last month for 115% of purchase price (cash deal).

My 12 year old german sedan with 140k miles in excellent shape is getting very little interest at $6,500.

I just can't bring myself to spend over $30k for a no-frills base model full size truck.

The second home search in our desired area also has little inventory. One sold for 90% of asking after 60 days, which was still about a 10% premium IMO. A fixer-upper foreclosure I had been watching finally went to market at the appraised price, about 10% over my 'good deal' estimated price. My full price cash offer was accepted on day one.

Back on topic, a friend's Van's RV sold right in the middle of asking and expected price a month ago, also cash.
 
Just sold my Warrior for 35K more than I paid for it a few years ago so the kid could get all her ratings…rather average and paint at a 3-4 at best. Had a 530w and mechanical well maintained…almost free flying for a few years…almost but not quite.
 
hindsight2020 said:
Now everything needs to deflate, construction doesn't want to touch it because they're not in the "charity" or "social policy" business as they see it, so idle hands it is and the pricing problem persists. The equity owners don't want to let the govt give up the baby they feel entitled to, because "we were here first", and they vote. And the young, the tax base that needs to function in order for this little societal pyramid scheme to not collapse, are at the losing end of that proposition. Being asked to incur an outsized portion of their labor into the basic function of shelter, at the expense of every other aspect of their lives. Good luck sustaining a 70% consumption-by-GDP pyramid scheme of a Country, with that joke of a trade. It'll make the student loan debt look like avocado toast by comparison.
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There's a whole cause and effect policy thing that's ultimately responsible for this, but it's not discussable here.

I had an economics professor who concluded about half the classes reminding us There Is No Such Thing As A Free Lunch.
 
catmandu said:
My 12 year old german sedan with 140k miles in excellent shape is getting very little interest at $6,500.
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What model? Have a teenager about to get her license and I don't want her beating up my car. But she ain't getting a 7 series either. :)
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
What model? Have a teenager about to get her license and I don't want her beating up my car. But she ain't getting a 7 series either. :)
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A6, but get her an A4 with a stick to cut down on the texting and keep her friends from driving it (did that with both of my children). :D
 
I sold my Cherokee for $30k more than what I bought it for just two weeks ago after having owned it for 18 months. I put about $10k in it above and beyond routine things like oil change, gas and annual. That still leaves me with +$20k. Not a bad return for an 18 month investment and sure a whole lot more fun than stocks or anything else lol.

I then bought the Comanche for $20k more than what the previous owner bought it for, however, he bought it 10 years ago. He wanted more as he compared his to other Comanches with similar hours, but the broker encouraged him to accept my offer if he wants an uncomplicated and quick sale.
 
catmandu said:
A6, but get her an A4 with a stick to cut down on the texting and keep her friends from driving it (did that with both of my children). :D
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That is exactly what my parents did with me with a manual transmission in my first car. Although texting wasn't really a thing in 2004. It also had a 5 point harness... highly recommend. In all seriousness, racing is why I'm always buckled before I start the truck.hqdefault.jpg
 
schmookeeg said:
I would love to see the look on any under-30 person's face when that was presented as an option. Like I would hang it on the wall (in the mother-in-law guest room), such would be its perfect mix of contempt, hatred, and revulsion. :D
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I've got a meteorology degree and live in the Midwest. I'm 40, but my revulsion is that even when I bought my current house in 2009 (so in my 20s) out here I refused to even look at a house without a basement. It's not entitlement nor being stuck up. It's self preservation. I've already had to use said basement as a tornado chewed up the next road over from me a few years ago. I don't need to "keep up with the Joneses" but I'd like to not die.
 
schmookeeg said:
I would love to see the look on any under-30 person's face when that was presented as an option. Like I would hang it on the wall (in the mother-in-law guest room), such would be its perfect mix of contempt, hatred, and revulsion. :D
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Owned a single-wide thru college, paid $17.5K for it; cheaper than dorm rent, even back in the 90s. Had a roommate and and charged him the monthly lot rent in a relatively upscale trailer park that included a dedicated extra-deep 2-car garage on the lot. After Sold it at graduation for $10K, so 4 of ownership years cost me $7500. Between that and working ~30hrs/week, I graduated college debt free.
 
TCABM said:
Owned a single-wide thru college, paid $17.5K for it; cheaper than dorm rent, even back in the 90s. Had a roommate and and charged him the monthly lot rent in a relatively upscale trailer park that included a dedicated extra-deep 2-car garage on the lot. After Sold it at graduation for $10K, so 4 of ownership years cost me $7500. Between that and working ~30hrs/week, I graduated college debt free.
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weird, that’s not exactly how they’re doing it these days.
 
Morgan3820 said:
Probably not. There’s a finite number of serviceable Cherokee’s, and Cessna 172s left. every week there are fewer due to crashes hurricanes tornadoes, whatever. I would look for models that flight schools don’t use. Like Beech musketeers. Meanwhile, because of BasicMed and other externalities, the number of pilots is going up.
Now my turn. Will the prices of half ton pick ups go up or down in the next year?
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Exactly - even with high prices there’d are only so few of these left and no real viable option for new trainers that are not 400 k. Give it another 10 years and most of these planes will be gone
 
$291,012 ave price for 340s 11/1/2022
$278,219 ave price for 340s 1/3/2023
$267,906 ave price for 340s 2/3/2023
$253,613 ave price for 340s 3/4/2023
$261,594 ave price for 340s 4/3/2023
$248,822 ave price for 340s 5/3/2023
$266,744 ave price for 340s 6/3/2023


$197,910 ave price for baron 11/1/2022
$185,057 ave price for baron 1/3/2023
$169,502 ave price for baron 2/3/2023
$191,411 ave price for baron 3/4/2023
$186,757 ave price for baron 4/3/2023
$190,231 ave price for baron 5/3/2023
$209,694 ave price for baron 6/3/2023
 
eman1200 said:
$291,012 ave price for 340s 11/1/2022
$278,219 ave price for 340s 1/3/2023
$267,906 ave price for 340s 2/3/2023
$253,613 ave price for 340s 3/4/2023
$261,594 ave price for 340s 4/3/2023
$248,822 ave price for 340s 5/3/2023
$266,744 ave price for 340s 6/3/2023


$197,910 ave price for baron 11/1/2022
$185,057 ave price for baron 1/3/2023
$169,502 ave price for baron 2/3/2023
$191,411 ave price for baron 3/4/2023
$186,757 ave price for baron 4/3/2023
$190,231 ave price for baron 5/3/2023
$209,694 ave price for baron 6/3/2023
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How did it go up for Barons! Overall not much of a drop
 
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