Helicopters in Ukraine

[tspear]

Dam, my google fu is failing.
There was a really interesting article/academic paper I read within the past few months. It dealt with US engagement in the world, and how history has shown us repeatedly the costs to not engage. It was really a fascinating look at many dictators, and oligarchs based regimes that have effectively poked and prodded the international order over the past two hundred years since the early founding of the USA.

How in every case, the USA had two choices, largely ignore the adversarial regime usually saying we had no interest that part of the world, or stand up to the regime. When the USA stood up to the regime and made them pay a very heavy price now, it always was significantly cheaper than doing it later. Another aspect of the article; was that was extremely difficult to predict when the USA would engage. What was the event which was the "line in the sand"; often there were many politicians giving speeches for what was the red line. However, which one was the actual caused the USA to engage, was rarely the one discussed by the politicians.

It was a really awesome history lesson.

Tim

 

[Baked Potato]

@tspear
Do you think that calculus changes when nuclear powers are involved?

We already see how we are hesitant to provide weaponry that allows Ukraine to strike Russian territory. Meaning - we are allowed to play defense but not offense, as much as we'd like regime change in Russia.

The nuclear age has also seen the rise of proxy war vs direct power-to-power warfare. I think we're testing those limits as well.

 

[aterry1067]

No one wants to. But it's bigger than Ukraine. The outcome of this sets the price tag and expected outcome for countries who invade their neighbors. Discouraging conquests of other countries that provide key resources and specialized goods to the region and world.

Ehh... I agree no one WANTS to go to war with Russia, but it's becoming more and more apparent that Russia has inadvertently shown its' hold-card, and it is the same card it was holding at the end of the Cold-War; they don't appear to be nearly as militarily capable as previously perceived.

I'm not discounting Russian strategy though, as it appears that Russia decided some time ago that launching a psy-ops/propaganda campaign would be a good use of funds, and it appears they were right. The number of our own citizens, and even more concerning the number of our elected officials, that are actively cheering for Russia, and would prefer that we fight FOR Russia, is alarming. Russia is not in ANY way our ally; they are our foe and our enemy. That doesn't mean we can't work together on projects like the ISS, but as long as Russia maintains its' current dictatorship regime, they are not and cannot be our friend. L'est we forget, Russia has in recent years bombed US troops in Syria, and placed bounties on US troops in Afghanistan; they are not our friend.

 

[tspear]

@tspear
Do you think that calculus changes when nuclear powers are involved?

We already see how we are hesitant to provide weaponry that allows Ukraine to strike Russian territory. Meaning - we are allowed to play defense but not offense, as much as we'd like regime change in Russia.

The nuclear age has also seen the rise of proxy war vs direct power-to-power warfare. I think we're testing those limits as well.

Here is my take: the short answer is no. The more nuanced answer is; sort of. The current approach can be summarized the following way. Make the cost for Russia so expensive, they take their toys and go home. Therefore, defensive and denial weapons are fairly freely given. Offensive weapons will slowly be provided, in such numbers to enable Ukraine to retake its territory, but not fundamentally threaten Russia (e.g. 31 Abrahams tanks, can provide point tactical attacks but not threaten Russia). To make this balancing act happen, a lot more people will die in Ukraine and Russia than if we straight up provided the hardware to Ukraine to kick Russia out.

Tim

 

[ArrowFlyer86]

Why are you so eager to fight Russia in the first place ? They are not invading Poland or Germany but rather trying to recover ( rightfully or not , I don’t really give a crap ) a remote piece of land that has no meaning to anyone except locals and has been part of various squabbles for centuries ( a historic , centuries long battleground between Russia , Poland and the late Ottoman Empire )

The fact the Ukrainians went shoulder-to-shoulder with each other to defend themselves to the death against a belligerent superpower several times their size should indicate to you that Ukrainians are not Russian. This isn't a domestic dispute between squabbling neighbors*, it's the wholesale invasion and destruction of a proud and sovereign country simply because it's politically expedient to Putin. Importantly it was also a country that is ideologically much closer to Europe than Russia, and for good reason... the older generation has experience living under Russian control and it's pretty clear they're willing to die than have that happen again. Russian State TV isn't shy about their intentions towards Ukraine and their aims for other European countries**.

And don't forget, Russia has a pattern of doing this. They did it in Chechnya, in Georgia, in eastern Ukraine and now all of Ukraine, each time manufacturing some bullshi* excuse to justify their foray into foreign lands. I, for one, am not naive enough to believe that Russia is going to stop until they're forced to stop. And there is no better way to force a stop than to ship HIMARS, ATACMS and other weaponry to our Ukrainian friends so that they can defend themselves. To suggest that this outcome has "no meaning to anyone except locals" is absurd. The person who suggests that likely would have said the same thing when the axis powers were vacuuming up European countries. You need to put your strategic, chess-playing thinking cap on to see the overall picture here.

Also, the price tag? Let's establish some benchmarks. During the COVID craze we introduced legislation to give $30b to gym/fitness facility owners, that's just one narrow industry being a $30b recipient. Or schools that were physically closed being recipients of the Education Stabilization Fund (more than $200b!)... So when we're talking about $80b, or $100b or $150b to stop the imperialistic, destructive aims of a belligerent rogue state that also happens to be a menacing, principal adversary of ours -- all while costing us 0 American lives -- well, I call that a bargain. This is the biggest war on the continent since WWII!

*Exhibit A: Does this look like squabbling neighbors? This used to be a real city.

**Exhibit B: As much as it pains me to suggest it, dial into Vladimir Solovyov's Russian State TV channel (Russian gov't propaganda channel). Julia Davis does excellent translations. You can hear straight from the government paid horses' mouth about Russias aims extending far, far beyond Ukraine (plus a healthy dose of what they ask their own population to feel about Ukrainians in general): https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews

 

[Pi1otguy]

they don't appear to be nearly as militarily capable as previously perceived.

I now feel like misunderstood the rolling across the plains of Europe scenario. They are (were?) the #2 military force. That Ukrainian helicopters fly a year later, let alone being useful is amazing.

I'm curious to see how this conflict affects future helicopter designs. Will they go stealthy or add armor?

 

[Piperonca]

Army tried that a while back. It got too expensive.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing–Sikorsky_RAH-66_Comanche

 

[Ed Haywood]

The war has exposed serious rot in Russian military culture. I worked with some post-Soviet militaries back in the 90's and it was pretty clear then that their military doctrine was basically frozen in place in 1945. Their "elite" infantry training was a clown show of choreographed martial arts, knife throwing, and diving through burning hoops. Zero place for initiative or commander's intent; just advance on your assigned route at the proscribed rate, and count on mass to clear the way.

The Ukrainians inherited the same Soviet baggage, but after 2014 they made a concerted effort to remake their military culture. As a free society they were able to embrace key changes, such as empowering junior leaders, that elude an autocracy like Russia. Lot of respect for what they have achieved in a short amount of time.

 

[Velocity173]

I now feel like misunderstood the rolling across the plains of Europe scenario. They are (were?) the #2 military force. That Ukrainian helicopters fly a year later, let alone being useful is amazing.

I'm curious to see how this conflict affects future helicopter designs. Will they go stealthy or add armor?

Stealth as far as radar stealth isn’t really of importance…at least to the Army. Both their Future Attack Recon Aircraft and Future Vertical Lift aircraft, stealth isn’t a requirement. Only requirements are for cost, performance, size, interoperability, etc. Besides, aircraft losses in this war and our experience in OEF / OIF, shoot down losses were primarily RPGs, ADA guns and a few from MANPADs. The radar threat was almost non existent.

As far as armor, all US military helicopters that are approved for combat are required to be “hardened” and will have some sort of up armor. That’ll be by initial design or modifications just for combat. Like the UH-60, its compadres (CH-47,OH-58,AH-64) all have armor plating seats from initial design. In the case of the 60, over 600 Lbs of additional plating is added to the floor and doors for deployment. Now, will that do anything for RPGs/MANPADs? Nope, that’s where tactics (route recon / NOE) and aircraft survival systems (IRCM ATRCM) become more important that simple armor.

 

[Warlock]

Helicopters are like dismounted infantry in the assault…without combined arms support from Artillery and Ground forces and a CAP above they are toast unless fighting at night…then our odds get better. It’s really that simple. 20 plus years as an Army Attack pilot opinion only…mileage may vary…

 

[Half Fast]

Army tried that a while back. It got too expensive.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing–Sikorsky_RAH-66_Comanche

I worked on the design of the EO sensor package for the Comanche back in the ‘90s. The program was horribly mismanaged. It seemed we were constantly getting increased requirements and decreased budgets and weight allocations. We spent more time creating cost estimates and schedules than we did in design work. Total cluster.

And “stealth” is relative to other helicopters. It had much less radar signature than an Apache, but that’s like comparing a barn to a large warehouse. It’s still a helicopter with a big spinny thing on top beating the air into a froth. And radar isn’t the only signature component; IR and acoustic signatures matter, too. The only way to truly mask a helicopter is with terrain.

 

[Half Fast]

20 plus years as an Army Attack pilot ...

Apache? I had a little involvement in the design of M-TADS.

 

[aterry1067]

The fact the Ukrainians went shoulder-to-shoulder with each other to defend themselves to the death against a belligerent superpower several times their size should indicate to you that Ukrainians are not Russian. This isn't a domestic dispute between squabbling neighbors*, it's the wholesale invasion and destruction of a proud and sovereign country simply because it's politically expedient to Putin. Importantly it was also a country that is ideologically much closer to Europe than Russia, and for good reason... the older generation has experience living under Russian control and it's pretty clear they're willing to die than have that happen again. Russian State TV isn't shy about their intentions towards Ukraine and their aims for other European countries**.

And don't forget, Russia has a pattern of doing this. They did it in Chechnya, in Georgia, in eastern Ukraine and now all of Ukraine, each time manufacturing some bullshi* excuse to justify their foray into foreign lands. I, for one, am not naive enough to believe that Russia is going to stop until they're forced to stop. And there is no better way to force a stop than to ship HIMARS, ATACMS and other weaponry to our Ukrainian friends so that they can defend themselves. To suggest that this outcome has "no meaning to anyone except locals" is absurd. The person who suggests that likely would have said the same thing when the axis powers were vacuuming up European countries. You need to put your strategic, chess-playing thinking cap on to see the overall picture here.

Also, the price tag? Let's establish some benchmarks. During the COVID craze we introduced legislation to give $30b to gym/fitness facility owners, that's just one narrow industry being a $30b recipient. Or schools that were physically closed being recipients of the Education Stabilization Fund (more than $200b!)... So when we're talking about $80b, or $100b or $150b to stop the imperialistic, destructive aims of a belligerent rogue state that also happens to be a menacing, principal adversary of ours -- all while costing us 0 American lives -- well, I call that a bargain. This is the biggest war on the continent since WWII!

*Exhibit A: Does this look like squabbling neighbors? This used to be a real city.

**Exhibit B: As much as it pains me to suggest it, dial into Vladimir Solovyov's Russian State TV channel (Russian gov't propaganda channel). Julia Davis does excellent translations. You can hear straight from the government paid horses' mouth about Russias aims extending far, far beyond Ukraine (plus a healthy dose of what they ask their own population to feel about Ukrainians in general): https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews

Well said.

 

[Piperonca]

Helicopters are like dismounted infantry in the assault…without combined arms support from Artillery and Ground forces and a CAP above they are toast unless fighting at night…then our odds get better. It’s really that simple. 20 plus years as an Army Attack pilot opinion only…mileage may vary…

No lie. Helicopter crews and infantry have much in common. It’s a dangerous business but you do it anyway. Weapons + tactics = live to fight another day.

 

[Piperonca]

I worked on the design of the EO sensor package for the Comanche back in the ‘90s. The program was horribly mismanaged. It seemed we were constantly getting increased requirements and decreased budgets and weight allocations. We spent more time creating cost estimates and schedules than we did in design work.

I was a fly on the wall back then. It wasn’t pretty. There was talk about having USAF take over major acquisitions after that. More recent programs have been more successful, fortunately.

 

[Bob Noel]

I was a fly on the wall back then. It wasn’t pretty. There was talk about having USAF take over major acquisitions after that. ...

 

[Ralph Parmenter Bennett]

A slow sleepwalk into a terrible wider war? If so, this one won't be like overcoming our past Middle Eastern adversaries with overwhelming firepower. The shock and awe will be a mutual exchange. The present US propaganda is absurd and fantastical and is grooming us for a possible war that might be difficult to prevent from going nuclear. The DOD has known for some years that Russian military strategy plans for the use of tactical nuclear weapons if its borders are invaded. Hundreds of tons of US military material are being preplaced in Europe. 50 A-10's are in Poland with much much more not being shared with our citizens.
The US military has over 100 military installations OCONUS. NATO bases encircle the Russian Federation. The US would never tolerate that level of provocation from an adversary. We didn't in 1962.
If a wider war comes general aviation is grounded. A draft for the youth arrives and many young and promising lives will never be realized. These words are not a fantastical exaggeration, yet I truly hope they will not come. Think of our children!

 

[Half Fast]

More recent programs have been more successful, fortunately.

Not much. Take a look at Future Combat System and Armed Aerial Scout. The Army has a dismal record of running large development programs.

 

[ArrowFlyer86]

A slow sleepwalk into a terrible wider war?

I don't think anyone is sleepwalking into anything. It's pretty clear the war is front and center. This conflict isn't like 2008 Afghanistan where you've been there for years and still have absolutely no idea what winning would even look like. If Russia withdrew from their extremely costly, humiliating and pointless war tomorrow -- then the war would be over tomorrow. They're the aggressors who wanted this war.

Think of our children!

IDK about you but I'd prefer my kids don't grow up in a world where Russia and China feel emboldened to impose their 1984 styled kleptocratic, despotic regimes on us all. And you can't accomplish that objective by ****ing your pants every time they say the word "nuclear".

EDIT: I also will prefer my kids to not grow up in a world where the head of a government sponsored paramilitary group applauds an unarmed prisoner being put against a brick wall and having their face smashed in with a sledgehammer. I'd post the video link but I'm pretty sure it would get me banned. Kind of gives you an appreciation for the brutality of who is in charge in Russia.

 

[TCABM]

Helicopters are like dismounted infantry in the assault…without combined arms support from Artillery and Ground forces and a CAP above they are toast unless fighting at night…then our odds get better. It’s really that simple. 20 plus years as an Army Attack pilot opinion only…mileage may vary…

Nothing like good ol’ IDF and JAAT to really prep a target up.

 

[Pi1otguy]

The US would never tolerate that level of provocation from an adversary. We didn't in 1962.

To be honest, I wonder why any "adversary" hasn't done a freedom of navigation mission to the edge of CONUS waters? I don't mean that spy ship, but a few ships or even their carrier group (when it wasn't in for repairs).

Good thing I never

Stealth as far as radar stealth isn’t really of importance…at least to the Army

Wouldn't ZSU-23s and the like be sprinkled across the battlefield? For a near peer situation without air superiority. (Idk. I'm actually asking)

 

[Piperonca]

I don't think anyone is sleepwalking into anything. It's pretty clear the war is front and center. This conflict isn't like 2008 Afghanistan where you've been there for years and still have absolutely no idea what winning would even look like. If Russia withdrew from their extremely costly, humiliating and pointless war tomorrow -- then the war would be over tomorrow. They're the aggressors who wanted this war.

IDK about you but I'd prefer my kids don't grow up in a world where Russia and China feel emboldened to impose their 1984 styled kleptocratic, despotic regimes on us all. And you can't accomplish that objective by ****ing your pants every time they say the word "nuclear".

I wish I could like this post more than just a thumbs up. You have gotten to the meat of the matter.

 

[Half Fast]

I don't think anyone is sleepwalking into anything. It's pretty clear the war is front and center. This conflict isn't like 2008 Afghanistan where you've been there for years and still have absolutely no idea what winning would even look like. If Russia withdrew from their extremely costly, humiliating and pointless war tomorrow -- then the war would be over tomorrow. They're the aggressors who wanted this war.

IDK about you but I'd prefer my kids don't grow up in a world where Russia and China feel emboldened to impose their 1984 styled kleptocratic, despotic regimes on us all. And you can't accomplish that objective by ****ing your pants every time they say the word "nuclear".

I agree with you. I think most of this is a result of Putin’s insanely egotistical compulsion to recreate the old Soviet Union.

We seem to be very worried about provoking Putin into using nukes. This is completely backward. He should be terrified of provoking us, and it’s terrible that our leaders have failed to scare the hell out of him.

 

[ArrowFlyer86]

We seem to be very worried about provoking Putin into using nukes. This is completely backward. He should be terrified of provoking us, and it’s terrible that our leaders have failed to scare the hell out of him.

I fully agree. I'm embarrassed every time I see an article that talks about our leadership not wanting to assist in some capacity for fear of escalation. Even if you have those fears don't share them publicly on national TV, especially to someone like Putin who gobbles up that fear (ironically, he himself has a strong track record of overt paranoia). Our leadership doing that sort of tail-between-your-legs, tip-toeing into battle with a piece-meal support approach seems counter productive. That constantly signals that you're just 1 escalatory move from being scared off. Makes me queasy whenever I see it.

I think there are other ways to signal that you want to de-escalate, perhaps by constantly reminding the opposite side that if they withdrawal there will be not retaliatory attacks. Just for the love of god stop publicly declaring that you're afraid of escalation.

 

[Piperonca]

Afghanistan was a signal, just the wrong kind.

 

[3393RP]

L'est we forget, Russia has in recent years bombed US troops in Syria, and placed bounties on US troops in Afghanistan; they are not our friend.

Although touted as fact by a presidential candidate in Fall 2020, his administration later admitted the allegation was unsubstantiated.

 

[Warlock]

Apache? I had a little involvement in the design of M-TADS.

TADS was the reason it all worked…

7 years flying AH-1s and 13 flying AH-64s also Aeroscout Trac Flying OH-58’s…

 

[Piperonca]

Longbow Apache created a sensation when the first test results came in, back in the day. No threat armor will survive a combined arms assault with AH-64 weapons.

 

[Half Fast]

TADS was the reason it all worked…

Longbow Apache created a sensation when the first test results came in, back in the day. No threat armor will survive a combined arms assault with AH-64 weapons.

I retired from Lockheed Martin - Missiles & Fire Control. Our shop in Orlando makes the TADS, PNVS, HELLFIRE, Longbow, and now JAGM. We used to joke that Boeing just supplied the shipping containers to get our products to the battlefield.

 

[Warlock]

When I started in the 64 the peddles said Hughes…

 

[Piperonca]

I retired from Lockheed Martin - Missiles & Fire Control. Our shop in Orlando makes the TADS, PNVS, HELLFIRE, Longbow, and now JAGM. We used to joke that Boeing just supplied the shipping containers to get our products to the battlefield.

Thank you for your genuine and exceptional service to our national defense. Never a quarrel with LM. Boeing, on the other hand, used to send as many lawyers as tech people to their meetings, lol.

 

[tspear]

To be honest, I wonder why any "adversary" hasn't done a freedom of navigation mission to the edge of CONUS waters? I don't mean that spy ship, but a few ships or even their carrier group (when it wasn't in for repairs).

Good thing I never

Wouldn't ZSU-23s and the like be sprinkled across the battlefield? For a near peer situation without air superiority. (Idk. I'm actually asking)

I know Russia has multiple times in the 80s and 90s. No idea about more recently. There is an international standard that I do not understand / research, where warships can effectively declare a no fly/ship zone around the warships. This is effectively a warning area; however it does not apply within international territorial waters, so as long as the warship stays outside of US territorial waters, they are free to come. They are shadowed by US forces, that is expected. I do not recall the US ever making a stink about them sailing in the international waters.

Tim

 

[tspear]

I fully agree. I'm embarrassed every time I see an article that talks about our leadership not wanting to assist in some capacity for fear of escalation. Even if you have those fears don't share them publicly on national TV, especially to someone like Putin who gobbles up that fear (ironically, he himself has a strong track record of overt paranoia). Our leadership doing that sort of tail-between-your-legs, tip-toeing into battle with a piece-meal support approach seems counter productive. That constantly signals that you're just 1 escalatory move from being scared off. Makes me queasy whenever I see it.

I think there are other ways to signal that you want to de-escalate, perhaps by constantly reminding the opposite side that if they withdrawal there will be not retaliatory attacks. Just for the love of god stop publicly declaring that you're afraid of escalation.

I like following international relations, and have read a few books on it. So, consider me an armchair expert
Anyway, historically being unpredictable has led to more wars and escalation than almost any other trait in politics. You are dealing with different cultures, different values and perceptions. So stating things in public in such a way, and while delivery the same message privately, in a consistent manor will do more to end this without world war three than anything else.

A macho mentality does nobody any good in this situation. Bravery is doing something in spite of the fear. So, are you saying we have brave politicians who keep supporting and standing with Ukraine, or do you want ones that fail to recognize the threat of a wider escalation and have no fear, hence they are not brave but in reality cowards likely afraid to look small.

Sorry, you cannot get it both ways.

Tim

 

[Half Fast]

Thank you for your exceptional service to our national defense. Never a quarrel with LM. Boeing, on the other hand, used to send as many lawyers as tech people to their meetings, lol.

Having been in many "engineering" meetings with Boeing over the years, I know exactly what you mean....

They have some extremely talented engineers, but their corporate culture is awful.

 

[Velocity173]

To be honest, I wonder why any "adversary" hasn't done a freedom of navigation mission to the edge of CONUS waters? I don't mean that spy ship, but a few ships or even their carrier group (when it wasn't in for repairs).

Good thing I never

Wouldn't ZSU-23s and the like be sprinkled across the battlefield? For a near peer situation without air superiority. (Idk. I'm actually asking)

Oh I agree on paper the ability of a stealth helicopter could be a game changer. The problem is designing a stealth helicopter that still has credible performance. What we’ve learned in the past with the RAH-66 and the stealth UH-60s is that stealth comes with a significant weight penalty.

 

[Half Fast]

So, are you saying we have brave politicians who keep supporting and standing with Ukraine, or do you want ones that fail to recognize the threat of a wider escalation and have no fear, hence they are not brave but in reality cowards likely afraid to look small.

I prefer politicians who recognize that the threat of wider escalation, while feared, may nevertheless have to be faced so that we don't experience the reality of domination by socialist dictators. Sure, I want to avoid WWIII, but not at the cost of being under Putin's thumb, nor seeing our NATO allies under that thumb.

If WWIII has to come (and I really pray it doesn't), it's better it come at a time and place of our choosing. We were able to play WWI and WWII as away games; let's not allow WWIII to be a home game.

I like following international relations, and have read a few books on it. So, consider me an armchair expert

Did you do any reading about Neville Chamberlain?

 

[Piperonca]

Oh I agree on paper the ability of a stealth helicopter could be a game changer. The problem is designing a stealth helicopter that still has credible performance. What we’ve learned in the past with the RAH-66 and the stealth UH-60s is that stealth comes with a significant weight penalty.

Yes, and some unexpected aerodynamic effects also.

 

[Ed Haywood]

Found that out the hard way in Abbottabad.

 

[Ed Haywood]

We are not going to war with Russia. The war has been going on for a full year without us being drawn in. Both sides have clearly communicated their red lines and those lines are being given wide berth.

 

[Piperonca]

Found that out the hard way in Abbottabad.

Ironic that the operators got picked up by a MH-47, blasting out the radar (and acoustic) signature from hell. So much for stealth.