Um,no. That was a blip when covid stopped hiring in March 2020. Hiring is back to 2019 pacing. Our retention numbers demonstrate the resumption of said irrational exuberance. Military shedding is happening at record pace due to the major hiring, as it always has. What is also happening though is that people are not clean separating from the service, but joining the Reserve Component and throttling their junior years at the airline with it. Yes, there are a portion of us (30% currently, which is a low number for the DOD retention targets), that choose to grab the active duty retirement and forego the airline hiring. I'd say about half of those qualified aviators who wait until active retirement to do something else, end up pursuing airlines after the check of the month club. So in total a good 75pct of mil aviators dabble in airline work. It's not much in the aggregate as the services are smaller now in pilot production and end strength.
BL, the USAF specifically, could accurately be considered the country's best paid regional airline/farm team. The numbers support that characterization from where I sit. Granted, I'm just an odd duck within my demographic (eligible for majors, chooses to forego at a moderate paycut for reasons I won't rehash here again). But most of my peers are going head first into the majors, until the industry mule kicks them again. Up and down we go in this perennially volatile occupational choice.
On your observation of the industry at large, you are correct, especially on the regional piece. As you said, this is a regional captain shortage. A queing problem that no amount of regional FO hiring can fix. The answer is one of three doors:
1 fold the regional model,
2 dilute the requirements to be a part 121 captain at the regionals,
3 cancel flying and **** off the captive audience consumer until the recession "fixes" the hiring at the majors again.
My guess? Door 3 is what's more likely. No soup (free ab initio airline training) for OP in his lifetime I'm afraid.