After the Grand Illusion ends...

Jay Honeck

Jay Honeck

Touchdown! Greaser!
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Jay Honeck
So Oshkosh is slowly drifting into memory. It was a grand week, indeed, with stellar attendance and a truly great show. It was maybe the best Oshkosh ever, really.

However, as many of us commented throughout the week, if all you ever saw of General Aviation was Oshkosh you would assume it was booming. In fact, you might be forgiven for assuming that it was expanding exponentially, or, at least, it was ready to do so at any moment, judging by the enthusiasm and crowds.

But, of course, you would be wrong. We have now all dispersed back to our little airports around the country from whence we came, and the reality of our situation must be faced once again. Our beloved GA is slowly withering on the vine, and Oshkosh is The Grand Illusion, the event of the year that everyone saves up their pennies to attend. God help me, I love it so, but it always builds up unrequited expectations.

And with this, depression inevitably sets in. Today we were once again at our airport and saw nary a plane flying on this gorgeous Friday evening. Argh. For those of us who remember when it was not this way, it's hard to understand.

The good news? For the first time in ages, we saw a hangar door open with a person younger than us messing around with their airplane! The last time we can remember seeing any hangar renter younger than us (and we are in our late 50s) was when we were based in Iowa City, Iowa, prior to 2008.

This young man (in his late 20s/early 30s) is a new flight instructor at the Naval Air Station, and owns his own RV-7. We immediately latched onto him like starving people, and invited him over for beers and some hangar flying -- an invitation he immediately accepted. It was so unbelievably refreshing to hang out with someone who was not eligible for (or already receiving) social security!

So, perhaps there is hope? But we're going to need a lot more guys his age, and quick. The average age on our airport is approaching 65+, and that's a dead end street.

Meanwhile, we're just gonna keep flying as long as and as often as we can...
 
KAPA pattern is busier than I've seen it in years. All sorts of people walking to airplanes on the ramp.

Talking with co-owner and former co-owner tonight we attribute this to massive flight training and very high bizjet utilization (also military but we won't count that for GA discussion) on the field.

Lots and lots of trainers in the pattern and wandering around. Likely due to the "pilot shortage" articles and reasonably low fuel and rental prices.

Unholy number of bizjets. Likely due both to economy overall and also the changes the industry has seen to less bigwigs flying airlines and more companies availing themselves of fractional ownership than ever.

The only time I've had the pattern to myself this week in a week of daily weekday flying, was when it was raining the entire time. That's so rare for Denver to have continuous light rain from statiform downslope and so few pilots here know enough weather to recognize that it's a stable phenomena and not convective, that everyone stayed on the ground and I got to do seven laps and wash the bugs and dirt off of the airplane for 0.8.

Any other VFR weather it's "You're number three behind the Cherokee turning base, cleared touch and go..." on the parallel while tower launches and recovers jets and travelers who aren't staying in the pattern, off of the big runway.

That said, it's also summer. This will slow when temps fall down near freezing in the late fall. But it remains to be seen how much.

The massive "Borg" flight club now has three airports worth of airplanes. Multiple other clubs on the field. ATP expanded from being just an "advanced ratings only for ATP alumni" location to a full blown ATP school with about seven Skyhawks and five Seminoles almost overnight. The Cirrus specific club went from mostly Cirrus to having an entire non-Cirrus fleet and multiple Cirri of all makes and ages.

It's BUSY at KAPA. At least for the moment.

The big damper would be a market crash or significantly higher fuel prices or both. Those things would smack the rental rates hard.
 
It says something about your social circles, rather than GA in general. I sold my 150 to a young'ish lady who's going to get her ratings in it. I just got my first flying job, and the place is full of young guys who love to fly. Back home, the average age of students in the biggest flight school at the field (KPDK, busy busy busy...) is maybe late 20's/early 30's.
GA looks great. Fear not.
 
Good to hear things are better elsewhere.

As for my social circles, I belong to every aviation group there is, and my observations are based on actual daily airport usage. GA flying is way down.

Observation #232: We flew all the way from Oshkosh to Des Moines, IA, on to Siloam Springs, AR, then to Ingleside, Texas -- a distance of 1300 miles -- and saw TWO planes the whole time, both in Des Moines (Ankeny, actually) after leaving Oshkosh.

Two. In beautiful, nearly cloud-free skies, over three days, right after Oshkosh ended. That would have been absolutely unheard of, just a few years ago. We will need a very large influx of new pilots, quickly, to reverse this trend.
 
Observation #233: We had a potential student pilot at the front desk of our hotel this evening. He was gung-ho to learn to fly, and we, of course, were gung-ho to help him. (We've mentored several pilots, over the years.)

Sadly, we could not name a single airport in the area where GA planes are being rented anymore. Our airport's flight school closed a couple of years ago, and we know of no other rental planes in the area. Sure, there are CFIs around, but without rental planes, they aren't much good. It was sad, but we didn't know where to send him.

The good news? There's a guy on our airport struggling to come up with funds to open a flight school again. We are supporting his efforts 100%.

For those of us who remember when every little airport had at least a clapped out old Cherokee on the line, this situation is hard to see. Ghost airports without FBOs just don't rent airplanes.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Sadly, we could not name a single airport in the area where GA planes are being rented anymore.
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So is the published info that rentals are available at KRFG incorrect? That seems to be the closest going by FBO data.

You're kinda surrounded by Naval Air Stations ashore from the island, I see. That means a bit of a drive from where you are to anything GA, it looks like.
 
It's hard to reconcile a death of GA with the fact that all the < 45' hangars within 50 miles of where I live have waiting periods of between 2 and 7 years.
 
deonb said:
It's hard to reconcile a death of GA with the fact that all the < 45' hangars within 50 miles of where I live have waiting periods of between 2 and 7 years.
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The numbers don't show death, but do show a major contraction over two decades roughly.

When I started flying there were 800,000 active pilots. There are 500,000 as of two years ago.

120,000 of those are ATPs.

I forget how many student starts there are per year, but it would take 30,000 a year for 10 years to get back to early 90s numbers assuming no losses.

Numbers wise, it seems natural that in some areas, aviation doesn't have the critical mass of GA private flyers it may have had "everywhere" in the past.

But in others, it's thriving.

You also have social headwinds in some regional areas. Find the WGN online article from a few days ago and read the comments. More than half of the people in Chicago who posted on that article wanted the pilots who landed a historical seaplane on the lake near the city "fined for causing a panic" and tying up emergency responders after half the dang city called 911 about an "airplane in the water!" LOL.

That crowd is so well trained to be terrified of anything they have never seen before, that they'll never ever "get it" in this lifetime that people fly big airplanes and land them on lakes. They'll dial 911 and dutifully report that an amphibious aircraft landing is a plane crash and overload the dispatchers with stupidity, and then blame it on the pilot that they're really that stupid. On top of that, they'll expect government to PUNISH the pilot for their own stupidity.

When it takes "experts" to explain that large amphibious aircraft exist and land in bodies of water to hundreds of thousands of people and their response is "Fine them! They scared me!" their media induced fear of airplanes will drive them to say things well beyond anything someone rational would normally say about such an event.

Not to mention countless others who are simply disinterested.
 
There aren't a LOT of people training out of my home field but all of the people who are training are young. There have been a shocking amount of women training there as well. But still you go there on most nice weekends and it's a ghost town. On rare occasions, it's busy.
 
The boom in young people training is real. But appears to be almost exclusively for the airlines. The recreational young flier is rare.
 
One coulds sit and ponder this premise for hours. Last week I flew up to a small field in the Poconos to have the $100 omelette, in years I have never seen so many planes on the small ramp, it was great but then it was a beautiful CAVU day. I can go to my home field which is s Cirrus Service center and on a beautiful week day evening see no one out. As Nate said the pilot population has declined but not sure its dying! There are a lot of factors but as always cost is a big one. It can cost 20K to get a PPL at my field at the Cirrus Flight School. I got mine some 15 years ago for perhaps 5K. You can get it for less than the 20K now but lets face it. Joe Blow walks into a flight school at an airport and they ask the person at the front desk and thats what they hear, they don't know about the sliver eagles or the independent teaching in his or her Cherokee 140. If I wanted to learn to sail ( I already can) I could pick up a used sunfish for under $1000, get free lessons from another sailer or join a sailing club for under $1000 a trailer may cost me another $1000. I want to learn to fly today, Kaching Kaching!
 
Meh. What's this flying stuff all about. Don't they have an app for that?
 
I'm at a GA airport (Sporty's) with a lot of young people training. My son is one of them. He just made private pilot last week. But I don't kid myself that those young people will be the future of GA or that all small airports have this much activity. The trainees are headed to airlines and corporations where they will fly jets. I've been VERY lucky to have had the flying opportunities I've had the past 40 years.
 
Cluemeister said:
The boom in young people training is real. But appears to be almost exclusively for the airlines. The recreational young flier is rare.
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That's what I am seeing in my region too. The prospect of making a living is driving the training numbers here (a new all time record training hours flown at my airport last month) not an influx of young people like me 45 years ago learning to fly just for the personal challenge and fun of it.

One ray of recreational sunshine though. My region went into a major economic downturn when oil crashed in 2014. There's a bunch of younger folks (40s) who started homebuilt projects they have always wanted to do, after their the work dried up and they now have time - I don't think I have seen so many Vans RV projects underway around here ever before.
 
In terms of younger folks getting into aviation in the U.S. I'd love to see a statistic that shows how many American Students start and finish training vs. how many foreign students and compare the percentages against the total number of folks getting their ticket. For example are more or a higher percentage of Indian or Chinese young people enamoured with flying than American kids? Also if "X" percent of new PPL students are foreign and going to go home to their country to fly after training then the number of students may not be as encouraging. At the very least the numbers would be interesting.
 
eman1200 said:
There aren't a LOT of people training out of my home field but all of the people who are training are young. There have been a shocking amount of women training there as well...
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Reminded me of an Oshkosh vignette. Last week a couple of pilot friends and I were sharing an outdoor table at lunch with three young folks from Seattle, including a vivacious young brunette who's an FO with Alaskan. During lunch she got a text message and announced that her application to fly international flights at Delta had been accepted. She had been waiting more than two weeks for the result of her interviews. I thought that was pretty cool. :cool:
 
denverpilot said:
The numbers don't show death, but do show a major contraction over two decades roughly.

When I started flying there were 800,000 active pilots. There are 500,000 as of two years ago.

120,000 of those are ATPs.
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How are active and inactive defined? I consider myself inactive as it has been a year since I have been on an airport.
 
mtuomi said:
It says something about your social circles, rather than GA in general. I sold my 150 to a young'ish lady who's going to get her ratings in it. I just got my first flying job, and the place is full of young guys who love to fly. Back home, the average age of students in the biggest flight school at the field (KPDK, busy busy busy...) is maybe late 20's/early 30's.
GA looks great. Fear not.
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General Aviation does indeed have localized hot spots. If you get out of those hot spots aviation will look like a wasteland. I think Jay would be quite surprised at the number of younger people flying in the eastern Iowa area these days.

I'm in my mid 30s and the majority of students I've had as a flight instructor have been younger than me, most by at least a decade. BUT, almost all of those guys are doing it because they want to try to do it as a job (airlines) rather than simply having a desire to fly light airplanes either recreationally or for work. I'd venture to guess that at least some of these guys will either quit flying altogether or will only fly big jets after they get to the airlines, which is still part of aviation but not part of light GA. So 10 years down the road when the airlines quit hiring and the training/hour building bubble bursts the industry might look a lot different. We'll have to wait and see what it looks like then.

I'd say GA is far from being in its death throes though.
 
The reality is that you have to be middle class, at least, to get into GA.
The bad news is that being middle class in the 21st Century takes a lot more income than it used to. You have to be at least upper middle class today in income to afford what used to be a lower middle class living standard.
"Why is that?" you might ask. (gee, I'm glad you asked that) The answer is multipart:
One is that the dollar when I was a teenager (1950's) was more muscular back then - a $10 bill in 1950 bought what $102.30 buys today. Think about that for a moment.
Secondly, the middle class lifestyle today takes a lot more 'stuff' - Smartphone / PC or Mac / Flatscreen TV / GPS / AC in the summer / and the cars today are science fiction compared to what I drove in 1950. Just making the monthly payments for the phone and internet and netflix is a major chunk. Geez, even the folks on welfare are walking around with smartphones. I can go one with this list but if you don't have the picture by now, it won't help.
My mechanic/FBO (same age as my son) just died and there is now no full time FBO/Mechanic person for the nearest five airports. Not sure what I am going to do when annual time rolls around. Rental airplanes are now hard to come by. Local hangars are full but none of the planes are flying. My airport - 5000 foot runway and and an ILS - has days go by without selling one gallon of 100LL (and yes, the price is competitive with other airports)

Flying has always been expensive. It looks to me that given the declining dollar, the rising cost of a middle class living, and the ever constant threat of punitive action if you violate some vague regulation based on whether or not the FAA inspector got any last night, that GA is in a severe decline.
 
All of the local FBO's are booked full...some with long waiting lists.
The one thing I do see, is several (but definitely not all) of the students are young, and are in a hurry. So are the CFI's.
Appears that a lot of them are hoping for that big paycheck with the airlines,
but...also seems a decent plane won't last long on the market, which speaks to the GA crowd.

yoda-confused-we-are-drink-beer-we-must.jpg
 
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I'm working on some new endorsements and getting current on some long, long unused endorsements.
The CFI I'm working with is 24 years old.
You have no idea how much fun it is to fly with someone who still gets wide-eyed about aviation.
 
denverpilot said:
So is the published info that rentals are available at KRFG incorrect? That seems to be the closest going by FBO data.

You're kinda surrounded by Naval Air Stations ashore from the island, I see. That means a bit of a drive from where you are to anything GA, it looks like.
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lol Regugio is over an hour and a half away. Not too many people are that dedicated to flight lessons. (I drove 45 minutes each way, back in the day, and that was excessive. But that was because I was renting my boss's airplane, and that's where he based it. There were many closer flight schools.)

There are many closer GA airports. Rockport, Sinton, Ingleside are the three closest. All had rental planes when we moved here 7 years ago. None do now.
 
deonb said:
It's hard to reconcile a death of GA with the fact that all the < 45' hangars within 50 miles of where I live have waiting periods of between 2 and 7 years.
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How many of those hangar doors are ever open?

Our hangars are 98% full. I have never seen 90% of them open, and I am at the airport 5 random days per week.

At our airport, this is due to all the 70+ year old guys who simply cannot bring themselves to sell their planes, even though they haven't flown in years.
 
Jay Honeck said:
At our airport, this is due to all the 70+ year old guys who simply cannot bring themselves to sell their planes, even though they haven't flown in years.
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Hangin on to the dream I guess....
Us next generation folk may not have that situation. We learned computers and can have a sim sitting in the basement untouched instead of a plane in a hangar.
well, ok...maybe both :)
 
I'm 21 and am out messing with my plane more than anyone else at the local airport. I'm trying to expose my friends to it, but most can't afford it.
 
Some more thoughts, in random order...

- We have 360 days of VFR flying down here. This spreads GA thinly over the entire year. There is no urgency to "get out there and fly while you can", like there was in Iowa and Wisconsin. As a result, the skies that are packed full of airplanes "Up North" at this time of year may appear more empty down here in the Sunbelt?

- Our economy is topsy turvy from the rest of the country. Although Texas is always doing well, we were really booming here when gas prices were $4.00+. When oil prices collapsed, and gas dropped below $2.00/gallon, over 100,000 people lost their jobs in an arc from Houston to Austin. That was the final nail in the coffin for many struggling FBOs.

- There is simply no denying the death of GA, to anyone with a multi-decade lens of observation. Example: We landed at Hannibal, Missouri on Saturday, on our way to OSH. The last time we landed there was in the 90s, and it was a thriving little place, with lots of GA activity and a bustling FBO. This time, there was one lonely woman at the desk. She owned the parachute drop zone, and had taken it upon herself to "staff" the FBO during Oshkosh, hoping to see some activity.

We were there for 3 hours, trouble-shooting an alternator problem. Not one, single aircraft took off or landed during that time. She said the avgas pumps were rarely used.

- We landed at Janesville, WI on the way to OSH. The last time we landed there was in the early 2000s, and the place was bustling. This time, the tower controller lamented that "no one flew here anymore, except during Oshkosh". The newly remodeled terminal building sits empty and unstaffed (during OSHKOSH!) and the restaurant is long gone. We couldn't even check weather on their computers in the pilots lounge -- they were stuck at the start-up screen.

The list goes on and on. It drives us crazy, as we have devoted our lives to GA -- it is both our passion and our livelihood. We simply cannot understand why the boat docks are full of million dollar floating bars, while our airports languish. Thank goodness, our livelihood doesn't depend solely on General Aviation, or we would have gone out of business years ago.
 
tmcquinn said:
I'm at a GA airport (Sporty's) with a lot of young people training. My son is one of them. He just made private pilot last week. But I don't kid myself that those young people will be the future of GA or that all small airports have this much activity. The trainees are headed to airlines and corporations where they will fly jets. I've been VERY lucky to have had the flying opportunities I've had the past 40 years.
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Did they ever get a restaurant at Sporty's?

That trip still lives in memory as one of my most disappointing flights. After all the years of getting Sporty's catalogs, I had a vision of some sort of grandiose pilot's paradise in my head. So, I loaded the kids in the plane and flew from Southeast WI to Sporty's. (This in the 1990s.) We were stunned to find a tiny showroom (in front of a big warehouse) and craptastic vending machine food for lunch.

I don't think I've ever lived that one down with Mary... lol
 
Jay Honeck said:
Our hangars are 98% full. I have never seen 90% of them open, and I am at the airport 5 random days per week.

At our airport, this is due to all the 70+ year old guys who simply cannot bring themselves to sell their planes, even though they haven't flown in years.
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This is a big part of the problem. I got my private at 29 and just hit 40. At this point in my life, the type of flying I'm interested in is not compatible with rental policies (e.g. cost prohibitive for overnights) and purchasing isn't an option. It isn't that I can't purchase; the problem is that individual hangars at my airport are all leased with a four year waitlist.

So, all those closed hangar doors that have been the focus of much of this thread are not only indicative of an aging pilot population that is becoming less active, but also represent a barrier to those of us who desperately WANT to become more active in GA.
 
I recently bought a plane. And I have an airport across the street from me. When I first looked for houses out here about 2 years ago I checked out one for-sale hangar across the street. For way too much money I could buy a hangar that needed new siding and a new roof and for an extra $5000 the poor cub that was sitting inside getting rained on. I passed and put my name on the city T-Hangar rental list. I'm #1 on the list now, but the plane is based about an hour drive away for now which significantly limits my "oh, I just want to take a quick flight" since it's basically a full day adventure if I want to go fly. Hopefully soon I'll get a hangar and actually be able to pop over and take a quick lunch flight during my work from home day.
 
GTO1969 said:
This is a big part of the problem. I got my private at 29 and just hit 40. At this point in my life, the type of flying I'm interested in is not compatible with rental policies (e.g. cost prohibitive for overnights) and purchasing isn't an option. It isn't that I can't purchase; the problem is that individual hangars at my airport are all leased with a four year waitlist.

So, all those closed hangar doors that have been the focus of much of this thread are not only indicative of an aging pilot population that is becoming less active, but also represent a barrier to those of us who desperately WANT to become more active in GA.
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That is a GREAT point. All of these moribund pilots need to sell or scrap their planes and make room for the new generation.

Of course, if that happens all at once -- as it might -- the airports will suddenly be awash with hangars, and the market will be awash with used, cheap airplanes.

That is both good, and bad, of course.
 
flhrci said:
How are active and inactive defined? I consider myself inactive as it has been a year since I have been on an airport.
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Unfortunately that's a problem, but I usually just go with FAA's definition of holding a certificate and an active medical. (Be interesting to see how BasicMed messes with the statistics soon, too.)
 
For every airport that claims its bustling today, you've got 3 more that are ghost towns that used to be bustling.

Most on here weren't in GA when GA was thriving. Forget the early 90s, I'm talking late 70s and early 80s. My dad was FSS and I would walk the ramp full of GA planes either personally owned or rentals. Today, I look at those same airports on sky vector and see empty ramps. That is except for CRG and they only reason why they have full ramps is because large flight schools and corporate keep the big FBOs in business.

The numbers from AOPA don't lie. There's simply far less private pilots today than 30+ years ago and the ones that we do have aren't as active as 30+ years ago. Multiple reasons for that that we've beaten to death before.

I'll keep going on as long as I can, paying outrageous costs for aircraft parts, high annuals, hangar rent, personal property tax, etc., but at some point I'll hang it up and cut my losses. Nothing about GA makes economical sense.
 
Jay Honeck said:
So Oshkosh is slowly drifting into memory. It was a grand week, indeed, with stellar attendance and a truly great show. It was maybe the best Oshkosh ever, really.

However, as many of us commented throughout the week, if all you ever saw of General Aviation was Oshkosh you would assume it was booming. In fact, you might be forgiven for assuming that it was expanding exponentially, or, at least, it was ready to do so at any moment, judging by the enthusiasm and crowds.

But, of course, you would be wrong. We have now all dispersed back to our little airports around the country from whence we came, and the reality of our situation must be faced once again. Our beloved GA is slowly withering on the vine, and Oshkosh is The Grand Illusion, the event of the year that everyone saves up their pennies to attend. God help me, I love it so, but it always builds up unrequited expectations.

And with this, depression inevitably sets in. Today we were once again at our airport and saw nary a plane flying on this gorgeous Friday evening. Argh. For those of us who remember when it was not this way, it's hard to understand.

The good news? For the first time in ages, we saw a hangar door open with a person younger than us messing around with their airplane! The last time we can remember seeing any hangar renter younger than us (and we are in our late 50s) was when we were based in Iowa City, Iowa, prior to 2008.

This young man (in his late 20s/early 30s) is a new flight instructor at the Naval Air Station, and owns his own RV-7. We immediately latched onto him like starving people, and invited him over for beers and some hangar flying -- an invitation he immediately accepted. It was so unbelievably refreshing to hang out with someone who was not eligible for (or already receiving) social security!

So, perhaps there is hope? But we're going to need a lot more guys his age, and quick. The average age on our airport is approaching 65+, and that's a dead end street.

Meanwhile, we're just gonna keep flying as long as and as often as we can...
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Jay, I think we had this conversation at Oshkosh.
This is as much about the ECONOMY, as anything else, age, distractions, etc. The destruction of the American Middle Class has been, IMO, the largest factor driving the decline. The decline of GA mirrors the middle class decline, to a huge extent.

It is not just aviation, either. You see it across the board, from boating, to Ham Radio, skiing, etc.

The growth of GA In the 60's/70's was driven by Business Aviation. Being able to fly yourself to and from expanded your potential business opportunities. That, and the disposable income of the Middle class, drove aircraft sales, boat sales, RV sales, etc. When the factories started closing down in the mid-70's, in large part due to government regulation, that disposable income started going away. The business people are still flying today, but they are doing it in fractional or on-demand Citations, rather than learning to fly themselves.

What is missing today is that middle class. This has never been a cheap hobby, and until that level of disposable income returns for the masses, it is not going to get any better.

All of that said, you really saw at least the beginnings of a turnaround at this year's EAA. Not only were people and thier planes out in droves, but they were SPENDING MONEY. At the moment, there is real hope, and economic enthusiasm among the public at large. Every day since November has brought announcements of more middle-class type jobs returning to America.

Will it last? I don't know. But while the last president stated very firmly that the jobs weren't coming back, and you had better get used to Father Government as your lord and master, this one has said that America is Open for business again.
 
Velocity173 said:
For every airport that claims its bustling today, you've got 3 more that are ghost towns that used to be bustling.

Most on here weren't in GA when GA was thriving. Forget the early 90s, I'm talking late 70s and early 80s. My dad was FSS and I would walk the ramp full of GA planes either personally owned or rentals. Today, I look at those same airports on sky vector and see empty ramps. That is except for CRG and they only reason why they have full ramps is because large flight schools and corporate keep the big FBOs in business.

The numbers from AOPA don't lie. There's simply far less private pilots today than 30+ years ago and the ones that we do have aren't as active as 30+ years ago. Multiple reasons for that that we've beaten to death before.

I'll keep going on as long as I can, paying outrageous costs for aircraft parts, high annuals, hangar rent, personal property tax, etc., but at some point I'll hang it up and cut my losses. Nothing about GA makes economical sense.
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The last 30 years have not been kind to America as a whole, economically. In my case, I recently returned to flying after a hiatus of a couple of decades, and I have a whole lot of lost time to make up for. (And importantly, I finally have the ability to afford it)
 
Jay Honeck said:
Did they ever get a restaurant at Sporty's?

That trip still lives in memory as one of my most disappointing flights. After all the years of getting Sporty's catalogs, I had a vision of some sort of grandiose pilot's paradise in my head. So, I loaded the kids in the plane and flew from Southeast WI to Sporty's. (This in the 1990s.) We were stunned to find a tiny showroom (in front of a big warehouse) and craptastic vending machine food for lunch.

I don't think I've ever lived that one down with Mary... lol
Click to expand...

No restaurant at Sporty's but the vending machines are still there. They do draw a pretty big crowd for their free hot dogs on Saturdays.

There is a restaurant nearby at Lunken, but their location allows them to draw more than just pilots.
 
Jay Honeck said:
Good to hear things are better elsewhere.

As for my social circles, I belong to every aviation group there is, and my observations are based on actual daily airport usage. GA flying is way down.

Observation #232: We flew all the way from Oshkosh to Des Moines, IA, on to Siloam Springs, AR, then to Ingleside, Texas -- a distance of 1300 miles -- and saw TWO planes the whole time, both in Des Moines (Ankeny, actually) after leaving Oshkosh.

Two. In beautiful, nearly cloud-free skies, over three days, right after Oshkosh ended. That would have been absolutely unheard of, just a few years ago. We will need a very large influx of new pilots, quickly, to reverse this trend.
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A tale of three airports, all about the same distance from me.

The first is my home base, well over a hundred aircraft based on the field, well supported by the local political authority as a primary reliever, and has a well-run FBO by a motivated owner with several trainers, and the CFI's to staff the local demand. Active EAA group. Busy reputable maintenance op with several mechs that is opening a new, much bigger hangar shortly to handle all of the business they get. At one point today there were 5 of us in the pattern, 4 lined up for takeoff, including two Citations, and three more calling in ranges. Busier than it has been for a while, but not unheard of. This airport has really launched since the FBO was taken over by this guy, who has also recently purchased an operation in Columbus.

The second is a Suburban municipally owned airport. Fairly busy today with training and fun flyers. It is well supported locally as well.

The third is a little farther out from the city. It used to be a thriving, busy place in the 70's/80's, with a very active flying club and training, but can be a ghost town on some days now. The maintenance shop closed a decade ago. The town spends money on the place, it has good management, but several of the biggest factories in the area are gone now. These were decent-paying, middle class jobs. Those that are left do not pay nearly the same. While hangars are nearly full at the first two, you can score an enclosed hangar at the third for $100-$150 bucks a month, with no wait.

A fourth is less than a mile from my house, at the edge of the city. It was public for decades, and sold to someone that took it private in the late 80's. It became public use again a few years ago. My T&g there today may have been the only op it has seen in two weeks. The owner is not in the best of health, and has sold off the business that supported it, which has since moved to another state. It is falling into disrepair, which makes me wonder what will happen to it when the owner passes.

If you are looking for examples of what is happening in GA, you can find it within 20 minutes drive of me.
 
FlyingElvii said:
Jay, I think we had this conversation at Oshkosh.
This is as much about the ECONOMY, as anything else, age, distractions, etc. The destruction of the American Middle Class has been, IMO, the largest factor driving the decline. The decline of GA mirrors the middle class decline, to a huge extent.

It is not just aviation, either. You see it across the board, from boating, to Ham Radio, skiing, etc.
Click to expand...

Yup. I can look at the GINI index for a nanosecond and tell you all you've already espoused. My guess is people like Jay are not casualties of the dynamic in the aggregate, so the assertion appears foreign, or even feigned, depending on your sociopolitical ideology at home.

The reality is that the baked-in multi-culturalism inherent to America, ironically makes it also a place where a lot of self-sorting occurs, leading many people in the so-called middle to believe less hoards of people are hurting than is actually the case. I've always joked with my wife, as we tokyo drift our half-painted Arrow into the uppity metro FBO, dodging a stadium parking lot full of Cirri/Meridian/PC-12 wingtips like a two-striker parolee: "recession.....what recession?" :D LOL

"My perception is my reality", is what this thread boils down to.
 
FlyingElvii said:
The last 30 years have not been kind to America as a whole, economically.
Click to expand...

Hmm. It's been hard to be number one for all that time. Terrible. :)

If "hard" means not being 25% of the world's economy, sure. That was only sustainable for a short time.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022415/worlds-top-10-economies

China will pull ahead. But I wouldn't say our economy is all that bad.

The article does cover the actual important number, though... GDP per capita. We're eighth. Again, not particularly awful.

Much of what happens in *personal* finance is an increase in consumption and worse, consumption driven by debt, when times are good. If you buy the trinkets, you're probably not saving up to buy an airplane.

I took eight years off of flying due to poor debt choices. Dumb. Won't be doing that again. It's all about priorities.
 
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