What would you have done? Inclement weather coming.

455 Bravo Uniform

455 Bravo Uniform

Final Approach
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455 Bravo Uniform
Twice in my 10 years of flying I have flown someplace where incoming weather was pretty nasty. This was yesterday. I was not flying transplant organs, just coming home from Good Guys car show in Columbus Ohio.

I had ADSB-in, a strike finder, eyeballs outside, talking with ATC, and an aircraft in front of me around 4,500; I was at 6,500, above thin scattered and could see towering cumulus in the distance.

I finally ducked below before a broken layer about 20 miles from my destination, so lost sight of the build-ups. VFR. It was not dark, and I had no precipitation on landing. AWOS (tower was not in operation for a few days) had 9-10 gusting 19-20, aligned with runway 0-10 degrees.

The reason I ask is that (1) we continue to see accidents where we discuss data age/delay being misused for tactical maneuvering, and (2) about 20 minutes after I landed, huge gusts and then downpour which got me to questioning my decision-making.

I always had my alternates and 180 degree turnaround planned, but can’t help thinking what if my “condition monitoring logic” was ill informed.

Again, I had radio comms with ATC and aircraft reporting ahead, strike finder, ADSB, and my eyeballs. Both times I have done this I was getting feedback from ATC on the velocity of the front and basing my decision on my remaining ETE.

What would you have done? The more experience I get, the more I worry that my experience will get me in trouble. I come from the school of causal analysis, so it’s only natural for me to think “paranoidly”.

Have at it…thick skin on this one, posted here for me and others to learn.

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My read is you cut it pretty close. I once took off in front of a line like that that was about 20 miles away. About 300' agl we got hit with a gust that rolled us 30 degrees and must've been moving down at 1000fpm, because we ceased climbing for what felt like an eternity over the tops of buildings, but was probably really 10s. If that had happened 15s sooner, I might not be here.

I'm not going to say I wouldn't have done the exact same thing you did, but just food for thought.

ETA: it took me longer than I care to admit to figure out that the weather was traveling in the normal easterly direction, you track-up weirdo :biggrin:
 
Gust fronts don't show up on ADS-B, or on board radar. Since it hit 20min from landing, you may have just avoided it. Had friend that did that, he made it down but didn't have time to put his plane in the hangar before baseball sized hail totaled it. It sure is tempting when you can see the runway and see the storm coming at you but still aways away. I can't say I would have done different thought- get-home-itis is real and will catch the best of us.
 
if you were monitoring the weather at destination in real time(ATIS, AWOS) and you had an out, I think you did just fine. If the winds had start changing, then plan B.
 
455 Bravo Uniform said:
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Agreed regarding use of “eyeballs”.

If it appears clear/benign (below clouds), then radio comms with ATC, aircraft reporting ahead, strike finder, ADSB/ Nexrad, doesn’t help if caught beneath … a microburst.


 
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I tend to be pretty conservative when it comes to weather calls and I don’t particularly like to race a storm.

I’m curious if you were checking the weather at the fields in/under the storm to see what they were reporting; just more data to help build the picture.

I’m assuming you grabbed this screenshot in realtime. Is that because you were already second-guessing yourself or was it for some other purpose?

I likely would have made the continue decision abeam FKR with that as my planned divert.
 
The more experience I get, the more I worry that my experience will get me in trouble. I come from the school of causal analysis, so it’s only natural for me to think “paranoidly”.

I have no opinion on your post, but I'm in the same boat as you. I've been flying 30 years and my engineering background of looking for things to go wrong, is becoming more acute, not less.

Not sure if it's wisdom or old man fear... %^)
 
There's a flyin this weekend, one I've been looking forward too, only an hour's flight. But the late afternoon return means rain, wind and possible tstorms. I don't have weather radar but the iPad with ForeFlight and GarminPilot are pretty good indicators. I'll either be driving or not going. I'm proud to be a wimp!
 
murphey said:
There's a flyin this weekend, one I've been looking forward too, only an hour's flight. But the late afternoon return means rain, wind and possible tstorms. I don't have weather radar but the iPad with ForeFlight and GarminPilot are pretty good indicators. I'll either be driving or not going. I'm proud to be a wimp!
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+1 on being a weather wimp ...
 
I guess that's why the rule of thumb is to stay 20nm away from thunderstorms. Seems close to me. I would want more margin next time.

The use of track up, however, is downright hazardous ;)
 
You used the tools available and had an escape plan if needed or things got uncomfortable. I think you're fine. Other than the track up... That confused me too, but it doesn't take much :cool:
 
We had Young Eagles last Sat., and bailed when this weather was moving in.
It didn't show at all on my ADS-B other than a tiny little green sliver..and I mean tiny.
Didn't think I was going to beat it but I touched down just before it cut loose. My out was to the South.
I really couldn't believe how wrong the ADS-B was. It never showed it for me.

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TCABM said:
I tend to be pretty conservative when it comes to weather calls and I don’t particularly like to race a storm.

I’m curious if you were checking the weather at the fields in/under the storm to see what they were reporting; just more data to help build the picture.

I’m assuming you grabbed this screenshot in realtime. Is that because you were already second-guessing yourself or was it for some other purpose?

I likely would have made the continue decision abeam FKR with that as my planned divert.
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Yep, I was looking at field conditions along and around.

I grabbed a pic in real-time because I was going to ask the question regardless of whether I diverted or continued.

FKR was one of my diverts, but things looked pretty good abeam.

It was the energy of the storm that was shocking, and my worry about an unseen gust front. I had AWOS on and off until short final…but probably not anything I could do at that point.

Live and learn.
 
For the record, I bat left and right, lol. Track up in-route, north up for situational awareness near the destination. Unless I have a sectional pulled up.
 
murphey said:
There's a flyin this weekend, one I've been looking forward too, only an hour's flight. But the late afternoon return means rain, wind and possible tstorms. I don't have weather radar but the iPad with ForeFlight and GarminPilot are pretty good indicators. I'll either be driving or not going. I'm proud to be a wimp!
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Update….I could start home after lunch….. decision Thursday night.
 
I had the opposite dilemma recently. ADSB showed a nasty cell right over my destination airport. I slowed from about 100 miles out to give it a chance to pass, but it was still there when I arrived. The reality showed it was maybe 5 miles off to the side and not that bad. But I was nervous about it anyway. Decided to try it and abort the moment there was any sign of downdrafts or gusts. Landed without a breath of wind and no issue. Still not sure it was a good idea.
 
Skyrys62 said:
We had Young Eagles last Sat., and bailed when this weather was moving in.
It didn't show at all on my ADS-B other than a tiny little green sliver..and I mean tiny.
Didn't think I was going to beat it but I touched down just before it cut loose. My out was to the South.
I really couldn't believe how wrong the ADS-B was. It never showed it for me.

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Got my own lesson on ADSB weather this weekend. Was making a breakfast run with my daughter on Sat. Did a full wx briefing in ForeFlight - all clear. Read the forecast discussion in the TAF - all clear. Refreshed and re-brief after pre-flight. Still clear. Enroute - ADSB weather clear. Get close enough to pick up the ATIS - ‘thunderstorms in the vicinity’, but nothing showing in ADSB. 180’d for home - and about 15 min later my ADSB weather for that area looked like your pic.
 
Closer than I would have, but I'm a big baby when it comes to weather. But not anything that seems nuts, either, just closer than my tolerance for error in change of wind speed and wanting time to go around or wait for someone else to come in or whatever.

That might not be the right question, though. Maybe the question to ask yourself is, are you cutting things closer, or adding more margin, as you're moving through life? Because if you're gradually becoming more aware and more cautious, you're just flying a little less often maybe. But if you're normalizing the risk levels, then you may be headed to trouble. With your engineering background I'm pretty sure you're aware of that risk and will address it.
 
Was that weather moving East from LAF? How was the TAF? Then time of day, how long flying? LAF has two runways, helpful with stronger winds.



Yes, keep an airport in the back pocket, even closer if the weather is bad.
Sometimes even when chilling at home, notice adverse weather coming through. A few hours later, notice again, check the radar. Any given day, daylight, 24 hours is broken up into segments that may or not be flyable.


If one started the day at 0500 a.m. then the best weather is 8 pm to midnight, could be better to hole up.
 
texasclouds said:
I always consider IF we slide into an airport before a line of storms hits…will we then get trashed on the ramp? Why not delay somewhere safe and breeze in after the carnage?
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I agree. I was considering my diversion alternate and how much time I would have to tie down or negotiate hangar at alternate. This was my home field and my hangar was a 3 minute taxi and a few more minutes to put the horse back in the stall.
 
sourdough44 said:
Was that weather moving East from LAF? How was the TAF? Then time of day, how long flying? LAF has two runways, helpful with stronger winds.
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Weather was moving ESE towards LAF. I was traveling west to LAF.

TAF was a bit coarse, relative to other info sources I had available, if that make sense?

It was around 11:30a and it was a 2 hr flight.

I landed 28 which was pretty much head-on with winds at that point. Traffic landing about 15 minutes earlier from what I saw on ADSB had landed 23.
 
Well, you survived;)

Transferred a small amount from the "luck" bucket to the "experience" bucket. Difficult to "sump" the luck bucket for depth prior to use .... be careful:oops:;)
 
IMHO...
- You had ADS-B and were monitoring progression (and importantly -- you're aware there's a lag);
- You were talking with ATC on flight following - presumably getting any relevant wx heads up;
- You were remaining VFR and could see the stuff ahead as it was closing;
- You had plenty of outs to the south/west where it was clear;

You had a lot of situational awareness about the condition and the option to bail, so getting there with 20 minutes to spare is totally fine. As long as you were prepared to execute on your back-up then I think it's OK.

But to really judge the decision making of continuing on with approaching weather I'd ask: when did you expect the storm to impact the field when you made the decision to proceed? How did that compare to reality?
If you expected to get in just a few mins before the rain/winds hit - I'd say bad move even though it worked out in your favor this time.
If you expected to get in 20 mins before hand and it worked out - good situational awareness and planning.
If you expected an hour of buffer before it hit and you got 20 - then I'd count yourself as lucky and bake in more room for next time :oops:

EDIT: Judging by your post, surprised that it hit 20 mins later, it sounds like you were in the latter camp where it arrived before expected. In that case I'd say next time bake in more buffer time to compensate for being overly optimistic :)
 
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