The moisture entering the case past the rings from combustion would be, I'd think, about a thousand times greater than atmospheric vapor entry. There was a discussion on POA some time ago about the atmospheric moisture in fuel tanks. Even in saturated air there is so little water in a tank-sized volume, and the expansion/contraction rates in the temperatures involved is so small, that it would take a very long time to get any significant water in a tank that way. Most water comes from leaky caps and in the fuel itself, as dissolved or entrained water, not so much as free water. The volume of a crankcase is faar smaller than a fuel tank and atmospheric water is going to play a very small role.
Someone told us, too, that burning a gallon of gasoline produces about 1.6 gallons of water. Or some crazy amount like that. ANY leakage past the rings is going to send plenty of water into the case, and it's far worse when the engine is cold and the clearances are larger. Add that to the fact that a cold engine isn't going to vaporize that water readily and blow it out the breather, and you realize that ground-running the engine without flying is obviously foolish thing to do. Better to let it sit.