Russian Airbus down

ejensen said:
If it was ISIS, I guess the bomb/device was on board.

What kind of hardware would it take to attack a jet at 31000? And could ISIS operate it.
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Most any SAM system since the end of the 50s. What have we given them, what has KSA given them, what have they seized in fighting and in Iraq? :dunno: Operating isn't that difficult and the manufacturers provide manuals in any language you need, Arabic for s already on the shelf. It's certainly within their capability to operate these systems. Do not underestimate the military training available to ISIS.
 
I'd be really surprised if ISIS had a SAM that could reach up to 30,000 feet, especially operating in the Sinai Peninsula.

I don't think either Egypt or Israel would allow that.

But if it was a SAM a casual glance at the wreckage will show it. That's why anyone with a clue could take one look at the reconstructed TWA800 and see it was not hit by a SAM.
 
JimNtexas said:
I'd be really surprised if ISIS had a SAM that could reach up to 30,000 feet, especially operating in the Sinai Peninsula.

I don't think either Egypt or Israel would allow that.

But if it was a SAM a casual glance at the wreckage will show it. That's why anyone with a clue could take one look at the reconstructed TWA800 and see it was not hit by a SAM.
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Yeah, I'm not particularly seeing it either.
 
Henning said:
Most any SAM system since the end of the 50s. What have we given them, what has KSA given them, what have they seized in fighting and in Iraq? :dunno: Operating isn't that difficult and the manufacturers provide manuals in any language you need, Arabic for s already on the shelf. It's certainly within their capability to operate these systems. Do not underestimate the military training available to ISIS.
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Other than MANPADs, which are not too difficult to learn to employ, any missile system capable of downing a jet that high is not simple or easy to employ. You don't just sit down and read a manual and start knocking down jets at FL310. Stick to something you have some knowledge about before making ridiculous statements.
 
Good to see the companies data recorders survived...hope they get some answers from those.
 
Turningfinal said:
Russians stated plane broke apart in midair. I'm going with bomb or structural failure caused or as a result of the previous tail strike.
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If the radar data is correct, I personally would be inclined to go with loss of fwd fuselage (e.g. cockpit blown off) which could account of the rapid climb and deceleration and then fall. A tail breaking off, IMHO, would cause a dive. (but it's just my personal engineering opinion and as such is worth nothing)

Wondering how soon they will publish the findings from the CVR and FDR. Hundreds of people perished and everybody is asking a lot of questions, I cannot imagine the immense pressure on the investigators.
 
ejensen said:
If it was ISIS, I guess the bomb/device was on board.

What kind of hardware would it take to attack a jet at 31000? And could ISIS operate it.
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yup.....my thoughts also.

Luggage loaded with C-4 and an altitude detonation device....and boom. :yes:
 
Checkout_my_Six said:
yup.....my thoughts also.

Luggage loaded with C-4 and an altitude detonation device....and boom. :yes:
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More likely odorless Semtex, there are still tons of the odorless stuff floating about, a few ton alone buried back in the homeland. Libya was a big supplier of it
 
Witmo said:
Other than MANPADs, which are not too difficult to learn to employ, any missile system capable of downing a jet that high is not simple or easy to employ. You don't just sit down and read a manual and start knocking down jets at FL310. Stick to something you have some knowledge about before making ridiculous statements.
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I understand, but there is truck mounted equipment that we and others have brought to the region and trained forces on who are now fighting in alliance with ISIS. I think the assumption that all they have is MANPADs is a spurious assumption. I'm not saying that one was used in this incident, in fact I think the opposite with a structural failure in the tail, but to dismiss the notion that they could have and use this level of weapons system is not based on any solid reasoning I can see.
 
Henning said:
I understand, but there is truck mounted equipment that we and others have brought to the region and trained forces on who are now fighting in alliance with ISIS. I think the assumption that all they have is MANPADs is a spurious assumption. I'm not saying that one was used in this incident, in fact I think the opposite with a structural failure in the tail, but to dismiss the notion that they could have and use this level of weapons system is not based on any solid reasoning I can see.
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This was not the Ukraine where both sides have the capability to knock down jets in the flight levels. What truck mounted equipment have we or anyone else given away that could reach out and touch an airliner enroute? It was much more likely an explosive aboard or some sort of structural failure.
 
Witmo said:
This was not the Ukraine where both sides have the capability to knock down jets in the flight levels. What truck mounted equipment have we or anyone else given away that could reach out and touch an airliner enroute? It was much more likely an explosive aboard or some sort of structural failure.
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One of the problems we have is that nobody can provide a solid answer to that. One question to answer in the quest though is "what weapons systems did US Forces provide and train Iraqi Defense Forces on?" Considering the percentage of ISIS that is splintered from the Iraqi a defense forces, any of those weapons systems, including their trained operators, is able to be brought to force by ISIS command.

Hell, we can't even account for all the fissionable weapons grade material on the planet, there's no way to know what has been overtaken by ISIS in the region as they over take regional territories that have been flooded with these types of weapons systems by both NATO and Warsaw Pact-Russian Federation forces for over half a century. To assume that ISIS doesn't have access to any piece of this equipment is a dangerous assumption. Remember, ISIS represents the same resource interests the US does, but not in the US's favor, they want the same thing we do, but instead of us. We've been trying to leverage to stage a coup against Assad, one of the last non petrodollar economies in the Mid East now that Lybia is gon only Iran and Syria are left IIRC. The thing is we are being played and it's going to bite our asses, same as it did with the Mujahadin, only on steroids. It would be unwise for us to go to war with China, because they are the best buffer for us against ISIS. We basically have three choices left now that the Cold War has turned and we are no longer the dominant military superpower we still pretend to be. We can give up to China or give up to ISIS or nuke the planet. Those are the three options we have developed since we ignored Eisenhower and Kennedy and gave the stewardship of the nation to the military industrial complex, giving them veritable Carte Blanche to develop the nation as they saw fit, and this is what that has resulted in, our only option to continue on the path will terminate in extinction, or at least the end of current civilization and billions of people leading into another Dark Ages at minimum. Perhaps in that Rennaisance period we may get it right. Hopefully there will be enough useful resource left to let that happen. If there are aliens watching us, that would be their roll, and it would fulfill the Rapture scenario neatly if the next time we launch nukes in anger, that the nukes get caught' at the quantum level, and excess humanity is harvested for their food value leaving a self supportable population with some new information to advance forward with.
 
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RyanShort1 said:
The Israelis surely would be monitoring something that close to their borders out in the desert - and then there's the clear lack of shrapnel damage unlike the MH17 in Ukraine...

And PPrune makes POA seem tame...

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/569907-breaking-news-airliner-missing-within-egyptian-fir.html
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You would assume so wouldn't you, and I bet it would be correct. I would imagine that a launch there to 31,000' would have created evidence on the Israeli missile defense network with a good potential for a counter launch, the Egyptian government would be cool with it as a mutual enemy.
 
Clearly Kim Jong Il shot it down from his nuclear-powered stealth dirigible with the help of time-traveling aliens.
 
This?
 

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Tail strike + tail landing far from the main debris field lead one to question that first, obviously.

I'm wondering about a failure of the pressure vessel similar to JAL 123 in 1985, although that was was a B747. But it had suffered a tail strike 7 years before the aft pressure bulkhead failed. That accident happened as a result of an improper repair, which should be a one-off. But it makes you wonder about that mode of failure.

It also makes you wonder about a simple bomb on board. Tail section separation followed by the aerodynamic breakup of the remaining sections.

I guess a SAM strike is conceivable, but not likely given what others have mentioned.

Very sad event in any case.
 
petrolero said:
Tail strike + tail landing far from the main debris field lead one to question that first, obviously.

I'm wondering about a failure of the pressure vessel similar to JAL 123 in 1985, although that was was a B747. But it had suffered a tail strike 7 years before the aft pressure bulkhead failed. That accident happened as a result of an improper repair, which should be a one-off. But it makes you wonder about that mode of failure.

It also makes you wonder about a simple bomb on board. Tail section separation followed by the aerodynamic breakup of the remaining sections.

I guess a SAM strike is conceivable, but not likely given what others have mentioned.

Very sad event in any case.
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The interesting thing about the mode of failure was the climb immediately precipitating the fall. Was there another system failure similar to AF447 that lead to a similar climb, only this time the guy was so ham fisted he over stressed a marginal repair? Airliners only rate to 2.5g to begin with. If the tail just separated in flight, I wouldn't expect to see the climb and degradation of airspeed. I will bet one of the things in the record they will look at is the P-Stat maintain records.
 
N801BH said:
Or a missing Horizontal Stabilizer...:yikes:

I have seen dozens of pics of the wreckage on TV...

So far... Not a sign of the Horizontal Stabilizer..:dunno:...:idea:
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I saw a picture of it, it was laying on the ground away from the burn site by a fair ways best I could judge comparing the images. It was unburned from what I could see.
 
NoHeat said:
lots of photos, including a Russian satellite image of the main debris field, in this dailymail article
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I think the writer of that article doesn't understand that the entire fuselage when pressurized is a really big bomb. Either that or it's intended to build propaganda and fear of terrorism value, but none of the officials quoted indicated that.
 
Henning, the photos are the only thing of value in that dailymail article. I would ignore the verbiage.
 
NoHeat said:
Henning, the photos are the only thing of value in that dailymail article. I would ignore the verbiage.
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Yeah, I pretty much came to the same conclusion. I wish I could read the Cyrillic.
 
Henning said:
I saw a picture of it, it was laying on the ground away from the burn site by a fair ways best I could judge comparing the images. It was unburned from what I could see.
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Please post a link to the picture showing the Horizontal Stabilizer... All I am seeing is numerous pics of the Vertical Stabilizer with the rudder missing...

2DFC0BC000000578-3297871-image-a-61_1446317205024.jpg



Look close at where the horizontal Stab was attached to the rear of the fuse...


Also consider what happens to a plane when the Horizontal departs from the fuselage....

Yup.... Instant nose up / climb......:rolleyes:
 
N801BH said:
Also consider what happens to a plane when the Horizontal departs from the fuselage....

Yup.... Instant nose up / climb......:rolleyes:
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The center of lift is aft of the center of gravity.

Therefore, if the horizontal stab departs the airplane, the expected result would be the aircraft pitching down, not up.
 
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jesse said:
The center of lift is aft of the center of gravity.



Therefore, if the horizontal stab departs the airplane, the expected result would be the aircraft pitching down, not up.
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Yep, otherwise stalls would be a bit difficult to handle!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
jesse said:
The center of lift is aft of the center of gravity.

Therefore, if the horizontal stab departs the airplane, the expected result would be the aircraft pitching down, not up.
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Depends on how it's loaded and how close it was trimmed to the sweet spot..

This plane was configured as all economy ( 224 people in a 321).. with seats packed together and extending as far back as possible... They were stuffed in like Sardines... With max baggage weight, trimmed nose down when the Stab departed.. All it takes is a sudden nose high attitude and then it is headed that way till airspeed decays... Then is enters a flat spin / flat rapid decent all the way to the ground... If it dove to the ground, it would have far exceeded 6000 FPM decent... That is only a 69 mph vector downward.....

The plane clearly pancaked almost perfectly flat... Look at the pics showing the burnt wings impressions.. It probably had a similar forward velocity that caused the debris to spread ahead of the impact spot... The cockpit is somewhat intact and at the forward most area of the wreckage...

Ps... Still waiting for someone to point me to pics of the Horizontal Stab /Elevators....:rolleyes:

This is what a pancake impact looks like...:yikes::sad:


2E03C2E700000578-3299019-image-a-82_1446404399861.jpg
 
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I have hunch this was the result of a bomb placed on the airplane or an attempted cockpit takeover.
 
I saw that overhead view of the main impact area. I'm not really following closely, but I'm assuming that shows the wings and forward fuselage, and there is no sign of anything behind the wings?
 
The news is reporting that a satellite detected a heat bloom in the aircraft prior to its departure from cruise flight. That almost certainly means explosion. Whether from a missile, a bomb, or even a fuel tank exploding is still uncertain.
 
N801BH said:
Depends on how it's loaded and how close it was trimmed to the sweet spot..

This plane was configured as all economy ( 224 people in a 321).. with seats packed together and extending as far back as possible... They were stuffed in like Sardines... With max baggage weight, trimmed nose down when the Stab departed.. All it takes is a sudden nose high attitude and then it is headed that way till airspeed decays... Then is enters a flat spin / flat rapid decent all the way to the ground... If it dove to the ground, it would have far exceeded 6000 FPM decent... That is only a 69 mph vector downward.....

The plane clearly pancaked almost perfectly flat... Look at the pics showing the burnt wings impressions.. It probably had a similar forward velocity that caused the debris to spread ahead of the impact spot... The cockpit is somewhat intact and at the forward most area of the wreckage...

Ps... Still waiting for someone to point me to pics of the Horizontal Stab /Elevators....:rolleyes:

This is what a pancake impact looks like...:yikes::sad:


2E03C2E700000578-3299019-image-a-82_1446404399861.jpg
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Note however, that it pancaked UPSIDE DOWN...
 
Henning said:
The part labels.
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In the dailymail article? I don't see any parts with Cyrillic labels. In fact, all I see in Russian is satellite photos. Which photo number?
 
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