PoA Glide-a-Thon!

fantasmic.

Matt got the Lark,we are going to try to assemble and fly it next week. School is going to kill me this week but I'll keep you all updated on news.

Looking forward to seeing everyone.
 
jesse said:
Looks good. I was afraid to look.
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I see that's a live link; it keeps changing. In a couple days it won't be valid anymore (will slide past that weekend), and we'll have to use this one: (pay attention to the valid times):

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif

610prcp.new.gif
 
On that outlook chart, I know the B means "below average" and the A means "Above average" chance for precip, but what are those dashed lines? It says "dashed black lines are climatology (tenths of inches)"... what does that mean?

I see small black numbers going from 1 on the outside to 6 on the inside circles. What are the larger 33, 40, 50 numbers? Chances of precip? in that area? So, for example, are they forecasting a 33 percent chance of precip over north Texas, and that's slightly above normal-to-normal?
 
Troy Whistman said:
On that outlook chart, I know the B means "below average" and the A means "Above average" chance for precip, but what are those dashed lines? It says "dashed black lines are climatology (tenths of inches)"... what does that mean?

I see small black numbers going from 1 on the outside to 6 on the inside circles. What are the larger 33, 40, 50 numbers? Chances of precip? in that area? So, for example, are they forecasting a 33 percent chance of precip over north Texas, and that's slightly above normal-to-normal?
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i was wondering the same thing Troy, I have never seen that chart before in my life.
 
Here's the "unshaded" version with a little more explanation...

610day.02.gif


I read the bold numbers to mean probability of being Above or Below "average" rainfall and the dashed lines to indicate actual expected rainfall during the time period, which may or may not be average for the region.
 
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Steve said:
the dashed lines to indicate actual expected rainfall during the time period
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I think you're right. And that would be in tenths of an inch...

CORRECTION: The legend says "climatology". The definition of "climatology" is the historical pattern or trend, as opposed to meteorology, which is the immediate/near future weather.

Therefore, the dashed lines with small numbers are not the "actual expected rainfall during the time period", but historically what has happened in those areas during the dates specified. This makes sense when you consider the "A" and "B" (above/below average) shaded areas.

Right now, as I look at the March 21st issue date http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ of the 8-14 day outlooks, and look at the precipitation probability chart (the bottom one), we're expecting the normal 1/2 inch (4-5 tenths) of rain in the Texas/Oklahoma/Missouri area, and that's what central Iowa should get too, normally, climatologically (is that a word?), but the forecast is calling for a 33-40% chance of higher rainfall rates in Ames for the period of March 29th-April 04th. What we'll get on any given day remains to be seen!

Did I interpret that right?
 
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Tony, I'm not going to be able to make it this time... I'll look you up when I get to KSTJ on another trip. You all have fun!!
 
Troy Whistman said:
Tony, I'm not going to be able to make it this time... I'll look you up when I get to KSTJ on another trip. You all have fun!!
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Well, that sucks. I was hoping to fly formation with ya from the DFW area.
 
I am out. I have to either be in Florida or picking up niece who will be visiting for spring break. I wish I could go. If I do do the niece thing I may try to come with her and get her into one of the gliders. We'll see if she is interested.
 
Troy and Scott: You will be missed.

Folks who will be here: Stay tuned this week for more updates.
 
Jesse will be here friday, and Tri is driving up that day. so we will not be alone. If my week goes well Ill be done with Fortran by then.
 
tonycondon said:
Jesse will be here friday, and Tri is driving up that day. so we will not be alone. If my week goes well Ill be done with Fortran by then.
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...or Fortran will be done with *you*.
 
fortran will never be done with me spike. are you going to come up friday or saturday?
 
Hmmmm. Friday. After work. Maybe! I don't have reservations yet but if Leslie's up for it....

Just hoping the weather holds out. I'm not instrument current OR proficient, and Leslie's not checked out in the DA-40XL.
 
Schedulewise, Friday works for me. I actually blocked it out last week, thinking we might want to get a head start.

Hoping for good weather.
 
Tristar said:
That'll be nice I wont be the only one up there on friday.
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If the weather does what they think it's gonna do, you might be. Big cold front coming in. I probably wont make it at all.
 
friday/saturday is looking OK according to news and other various sources. partly cloudy with highs in the mid 50's. of course it doesnt say if partly cloudy is at 200 or 20,000. we'll see...
 
Looks crappy across Illinois and Wisconsin for Friday on the long term. But that is the 120 hour forecast and that will always change significantly as the week goes by.
 
yea its fascinating that Ed is worried about a forecast...
 
Okay, got the plane and hotel extended. I'll try to get with an instructor beforehand to get instrument current and get more proficient in the XL. I'm hoping someone'll be available to shuttle us to the hotel (Microtel) after work. We'll probably be getting in about 5:00.
 
gprellwitz said:
Okay, got the plane and hotel extended. I'll try to get with an instructor beforehand to get instrument current and get more proficient in the XL. I'm hoping someone'll be available to shuttle us to the hotel (Microtel) after work. We'll probably be getting in about 5:00.
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ill be done with class at 4 pm on friday, give me a ring, fife one fife - two niner one - zero zero eight niner.
 
tonycondon said:
yea its fascinating that Ed is worried about a forecast...
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Well, when there's a temperature disparity of 30 degrees on either side of the front, I raise the consideration of the forecast from 5% to 10% :)
 
EdFred said:
If the weather does what they think it's gonna do, you might be. Big cold front coming in. I probably wont make it at all.
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Thats whats partialy good about driving, weather isn't as much of a factor. Although I still hope it works out for the actual event.
 
Weather is looking less than ideal at this point.
 
jesse said:
Weather is looking less than ideal at this point.
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Well it looks like it might be a good IFR day for me. I have to fly on Saturday over to Fort Wayne to pick up my niece. She is on spring break and is going to spend a few days with us. I had been thinking of bringing her on Sunday for a little glider orientation if she wanted to go. On Monday I am taking her for a spa day.
 
smigaldi said:
Well it looks like it might be a good IFR day for me. I have to fly on Saturday over to Fort Wayne to pick up my niece. She is on spring break and is going to spend a few days with us. I had been thinking of bringing her on Sunday for a little glider orientation if she wanted to go. On Monday I am taking her for a spa day.
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I will still attempt to make it there VFR hopefully Friday night. If that's not possible I'll drive or try for Saturday.
 
a lot could change in 4 days. better or worse.
 
Hopefully all this rain doesn't come your way. I've been looking forward to it for too long!
 
Tristar said:
Hopefully all this rain doesn't come your way. I've been looking forward to it for too long!
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I'm crossing my fingers. One way or another this weather will cooperate with us.
 
jesse said:
We'll know more come tomorrow.
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True, true... I wonder if the projected rain is expected from that big low that's currently dumping rain and wind on the southwest (California, New Mexico, Utah)? I haven't looked to see where they think that thing is headed.
 
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