Please! Make it stop! (Stock market crash)

I am all for helping those who need help, I am totally against helping those who make more than $500K a year and given current events over last several years worry most relief will go to those who need it the least.
 
airdale said:
Not once you understand that you are dealing with random events, events that no one can forecast...Nassim Taleb's very good book "Fooled by Randomness" discusses the problems where someone gets lucky and, from that, concludes that he is a genius. I recommend it.
Click to expand...

I read it and recommend it as well.

I’ve arrived at a modified “Random Walk/Efficient Market” philosophy. Yes, discounting inside information, every other investor knows what you do, and that is efficiently priced into the price of any stock or commodity. As such, any given stock at any given time is fairly priced and equally likely to go up or down. If not randomly, essentially unpredictability.

But...

I do think “intuition” can give one a leg up. For instance, subscribing to Netflix very early on and having a hunch that even though the stock seemed “overpriced” at the time*, that the business had lots of potential to grow. Similar hunches could be had with Microsoft, Apple, eBay, Facebook, Amazon and Google, leading to huge gains if one followed those hunches. Others with the same information may not have the insight you do. Or so it seems to me.


*I’ve come to feel “over-“ or “under-priced” are meaningless except in retrospect, given the Efficient Market Hypothesis. And that technical analysis is hogwash.
 
Half Fast said:
Those lenders and landlords, etc., are all having to pay employees and suppliers, many of whom are also living paycheck to paycheck. Many of the people you're asking to hold out are themselves highly leveraged. You're making a big assumption here that may not be valid.
Click to expand...

I think you are missing a key point here. If those employees living paycheck to paycheck that rely on the landlord for employment also have no bills than the entire system stands up pretty well. The circle of expenses vs income stablizes quicker if you limit expenses.
 
jspilot said:
I think you are missing a key point here. If those employees living paycheck to paycheck that rely on the landlord for employment also have no bills than the entire system stands up pretty well. The circle of expenses vs income stablizes quicker if you limit expenses.
Click to expand...

No it doesn't, because no one will have "no bills" whatsoever.

What would motivate a farmer to produce more food than enough for his own family if he can't get paid and if he doesn't have to worry about paying his mortgage or his power bill?
 
Half Fast said:
No it doesn't, because no one will have "no bills" whatsoever.

What would motivate a farmer to produce more food than enough for his own family if he can't get paid and if he doesn't have to worry about paying his mortgage or his power bill?
Click to expand...

We are talking about getting people money in a way that makes sense. You can give people 1,000 dollars each but that’s not enough and I’ve been watching the debates on this relief package on and off all day. The Republicans are saying exactly what I am. They want the money to go to people but not just 1,000 dollars and that’s it. It won’t go far enough and it’s not an effective way to get the economy going. If the money is meant to keep people afloat in the short term I think I’d be ok with that but we ought to be considering how to lower the strain of bills on people right now. That’s my point.
 
Chip Sylverne said:
I'm finding it very hard to resist BRK.B at this level.
Click to expand...

I got in at the split and paid just under $80 a share, my only regret was I didn't buy waaay more. At the current price I still couldn't make myself jump in for more.
 
Last edited:
FastEddieB said:
... I’ve arrived at a modified “Random Walk/Efficient Market” philosophy. Yes, discounting inside information, every other investor knows what you do, and that is efficiently priced into the price of any stock or commodity. As such, any given stock at any given time is fairly priced and equally likely to go up or down. If not randomly, essentially unpredictability.
Click to expand...
Here is a pretty good video of Fama and Thaler discussing the EMH. Both agree that your (and my) going-in assumption should be the EMH, but the discussion of behavioral finance/emotional price distortions is very good. https://famafrench.dimensional.com/famafrench/videos/are-markets-efficient.aspx

(And of course, behavioral finance wins when we consider the current market situation.)

FastEddieB said:
... I do think “intuition” can give one a leg up. For instance, subscribing to Netflix very early on and having a hunch that even though the stock seemed “overpriced” at the time*, that the business had lots of potential to grow. Similar hunches could be had with Microsoft, Apple, eBay, Facebook, Amazon and Google, leading to huge gains if one followed those hunches. Others with the same information may not have the insight you do. Or so it seems to me.
Click to expand...
We'll differ on that one. It is true, though, that we are physiologically wired remember our winners and forget our losers, so when you win on a "hunch" it sticks. Try Jason Zweig's "Your Money & Your Brain"

FastEddieB said:
... technical analysis is hogwash.
Click to expand...
Of course. It's astrology for investors. We are pattern-seeking animals. It is a huge survival trait; there simply is not time to analyze every situation ab initio. But this trait causes us to see patterns in randomness where there actually are none. Taleb again ...
 
jspilot said:
Ok I think you are making sweeping assumptions here. There are huge differences between someone who makes 30,000 and 99,000. The plan I think I’ve heard takes some of that into account but the person making 30,000 likely is living on little savings but not the guy who makes 99,000. Also, this plan makes little to no adjustment for where you live and just makes a blanket handout.

Certainly this money won’t help the stock market at all.
Click to expand...

Not as much as you think.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/fed...-adults-cant-cover-400-emergency-expense.html
Slide the bar to 100K.
http://graphics.wsj.com/what-percent/

You will find that roughly 8% of the population makes more than 100K.

Americans suck at saving.

Tim
 
tspear said:
Not as much as you think.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/22/fed...-adults-cant-cover-400-emergency-expense.html
Slide the bar to 100K.
http://graphics.wsj.com/what-percent/

You will find that roughly 8% of the population makes more than 100K.

Americans suck at saving.

Tim
Click to expand...

I totally understand your point about Americans being awful at saving and managing debt. I teach high school economics and I have a multi week unit on this. My issue was not with the premise of your comment but the sweeping nature of it. You can’t make an arguement that the guy making 95,000 needs as much money as the person making 30,000 especially if the premise of this money is basically a bridge loan.
 
All of you stock holders can breath more easily today.

I only had enough cash to last me about 2 or 3 months and I figured that in 3 months from now the market MAY be in even worse shape than it is now. So I sold enough mutual funds yesterday to make my cash last about a year. You can be sure those stocks, and the market in general will go up today. Assuming I sold enough.
 
jspilot said:
I totally understand your point about Americans being awful at saving and managing debt. I teach high school economics and I have a multi week unit on this. My issue was not with the premise of your comment but the sweeping nature of it. You can’t make an arguement that the guy making 95,000 needs as much money as the person making 30,000 especially if the premise of this money is basically a bridge loan.
Click to expand...

It's called the concept of "marginal utility". Very interesting story behind it's historical foundations, as I`m sure you know.
 
Ford has taken a huge hit, down to about $4/share.

We own some, mainly for the dividend, which previously has been hovering around 5%. At $4, it works out to a 13.43% return. Great return, but of course the big question is will they have to cut their dividend going forward. For me, is this a Chrysler or a PanAm?
 
jspilot said:
I totally understand your point about Americans being awful at saving and managing debt. I teach high school economics and I have a multi week unit on this. My issue was not with the premise of your comment but the sweeping nature of it. You can’t make an arguement that the guy making 95,000 needs as much money as the person making 30,000 especially if the premise of this money is basically a bridge loan.
Click to expand...

Actually, I can make the argument that the guy making 95K needs the cash more. However, fundamentally, I believe you are correct. The less you make, the smaller the margin you work under and the closer you are to a financial cliff from which it is harder to recover.

Tim
 
Im real close to pulling about 30k out of my working capital and dumping it in the market. I think the daily death toll will peak early next week and people will be shocked that it's no where near the millions predicted. By late April/may most will be back to work.

Of course ,I bought Boeing about a month after the second crash, thinking the max would be back flying shortly, so my prognostication is worth exactly what you paid for it.
 
JOhnH said:
All of you stock holders can breath more easily today.

I only had enough cash to last me about 2 or 3 months and I figured that in 3 months from now the market MAY be in even worse shape than it is now. So I sold enough mutual funds yesterday to make my cash last about a year. You can be sure those stocks, and the market in general will go up today. Assuming I sold enough.
Click to expand...

Just in time for a big up open! :eek:

Not trying to rub it in, but it does remind me of some research I saw. People often talk about the "10 best days" of market returns, and suggesting if you could just avoid the "10 worst days" you'd make so much more money. Problem is, the best return days often come very close in time to the very worst days. So, who has the nads to buy on a worst day hoping to catch a best day? Tough to do.
 
rpadula said:
Just in time for a big up open! :eek:
Click to expand...
Yep. Just as I predicted and promised. I sell and the DOW pops 1,500 pts.

But that's ok. I have enough left that is doing very well today. But I still suspect it will get worse before it gets better. The ONLY things I don't know are how much worse, how much better and when. But other than that I have this whole thing figured out.

I still think that once the hoarders and pessimists figure out how much they over-reacted, the market is going to go up like a rocket. It will go up much more and much sooner than the actual recovery because the market is based mostly on anticipation and emotion. That is why it fell so much, and that is why it will go up so much. If I could just get the damn timing right.
 
Gary said:
Would you mind letting us all know when that time arrives?
Click to expand...
I have often thought of writing a news letter to tell people when I buy or sell. I would call it "The Contrarian", but I think that name is already taken.

But in all humbleness, I can't take all the credit. I know there are a lot of you out there that have the same super-ability to alter the course of the market just by buying or selling.
 
JOhnH said:
All of you stock holders can breath more easily today.

I only had enough cash to last me about 2 or 3 months and I figured that in 3 months from now the market MAY be in even worse shape than it is now. So I sold enough mutual funds yesterday to make my cash last about a year. You can be sure those stocks, and the market in general will go up today. Assuming I sold enough.
Click to expand...

Thanks, can you please us more warning, I would have bought in on Monday if I knew?!
 
Well, I guess I should’ve bought BA a week ago at $95 a share. :(
 
Velocity173 said:
Well, I guess I should’ve bought BA a week ago at $95 a share. :(
Click to expand...

I was thing the same. Could’ve almost doubled if timing the market.

I’m not sure it’s going to stay at ~$165; with such reduced demand, there’s no need for the airlines to get Max deliveries back on track for the time being.

What the current event does to business travel is yet to be seen.
 
TCABM said:
I was thing the same. Could’ve almost doubled if timing the market.

I’m not sure it’s going to stay at ~$165; with such reduced demand, there’s no need for the airlines to get Max deliveries back on track for the time being.

What the current event does to business travel is yet to be seen.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was so close at buying around $100 but everyone was saying it hadn’t bottomed out yet. Then, when it shot up, everyone was saying it’s just a bump on the way down. Could've almost doubled my account in a weeks time.:mad:

I’m not sure it’s gonna stay at $165 either. Long term they might be a $300 a share company but I think we’re looking at months before we see any rise in share price. Just too volatile right now for me to get in so I think I’ll play a wait and see. If it does continue the climb, good for them.
 
Jim K said:
Im real close to pulling about 30k out of my working capital and dumping it in the market. I think the daily death toll will peak early next week and people will be shocked that it's no where near the millions predicted. By late April/may most will be back to work.

Of course ,I bought Boeing about a month after the second crash, thinking the max would be back flying shortly, so my prognostication is worth exactly what you paid for it.
Click to expand...

I’ve got 100k tied up in a bank clearance issue and I won’t get it until Tuesday or Wed. I was wanting to buy Boeing at 105. I would have missed the bottom, but I was close enough.

I could spit right now. I have been on top of Boeing, running financials and I was so sure that was the bottom and I got caught in a transfer.
 
What do you think the "average person's" percentage loss in their market investment (stocks/bonds/ETFs etc; ie not real estate or other) loss was from Feb to now?
10%? 20%?
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
What do you think the "average person's" percentage loss in their market investment (stocks/bonds/ETFs etc; ie not real estate or other) loss was from Feb to now?
10%? 20%?
Click to expand...
I'm down about 25%, but I tend to be invested a bit more aggressively than the common thinking is for folks my age (60). I'm not relying on the money in my retirement and investment accounts to live on... that's covered elsewhere. Sooo.. still sort of playing the long game. In the past week, I've maxed out my 2019 allowed Roth contributions and have started investing this year's allowed $7k on top of it.
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
What do you think the "average person's" percentage loss in their market investment (stocks/bonds/ETFs etc; ie not real estate or other) loss was from Feb to now?
10%? 20%?
Click to expand...
I haven’t looked in a few weeks. Last time I did I was down around 25-30%. I decided early on I was riding it out.
 
I'm married to a nerd. We track our investments monthly. After logging march numbers I looked back and have as much on paper as I did last March. Not sure if percentage exactly.
 
Ok thanks - that gives me an idea.
In January I told my EdJones guy I wanted everything as safe as possible short of cash, but minimizing expense of cap gains / trans fees - we are down 10% - I can live with that.
 
Looked today. Down about 25% in the retirement accounts, but up 22% in the stock market where I shift things a lot quicker. If I come out of this close to even I will be happy.
 
I’m guessing we will ratchet up and down quite a bit as we head lower.

If you’re an investor, you can dollar cost average into the market, assuming you have cash. The question of when to start may not be important if you’re a long term investor.

If you’re a trader, it’s a fun time to make some money, if you have cash. In another thread I mentioned I don’t see a clear and distinct virus exit event here where the economy starts to spike dramatically and I think we head lower as that realization is made (100% opinion). Put options are a decent tool during these times.
 
jonvcaples said:
I am all for helping those who need help, I am totally against helping those who make more than $500K a year and given current events over last several years worry most relief will go to those who need it the least.
Click to expand...
I'm all for helping everyone, or no one.
 
I realize how callous my post sounds, re-reading it. Fun? Make money? What have I become?!
 
Let'sgoflying! said:
What do you think the "average person's" percentage loss in their market investment (stocks/bonds/ETFs etc; ie not real estate or other) loss was from Feb to now?
10%? 20%?
Click to expand...

Our personal portfolio, mainly common stocks plus an IRA invested in mutual funds, is down 33% from Feb 14, when it had hit a new high. That's back to the level it was in Feb, 2019. And that's with dividends invested along the way, but also some sales.
 
As the OP of this thread, I am no longer stressing out. I sold enough bonds (at a profit) to generate enough cash to last me about a year as long as I don't splurge too much. I am down almost 30% at the moment, but I figure that I will be back up where I was in about a year from now. Then I can figure out which plane will give me the best useful load, go as fast as the Bonanza, AND have Air Conditioning.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top