Still plenty of opportunity for injury; I’m going to hold my jokes til they are safely down.
When they left, was not the metar 400 & 3?
adds is acting up for me, can’t be sure this is right.
(not defending or chastising them… just like the facts.)
How to find the tafs they were presented with? Historical tafs, I guess. Are those a thing?
Ask and ye shall, oh dear…
I used both Dulles and BWI. As you can see, the TAFs were all over the place, kind of unpredictable as to the arrival of the system. I’m guessing the are was close to the center of low pressure and there was a fast-moving occlusion, which made the timing hard to pin down. Note how the 21/22z IAD forecast deteriorated rapidly as the day wore on, but the BWI forecast for the same period
improved, until the actual forecast time, when it was well worse than forecast.
KIAD 271120Z 2712/2818 18006KT 6SM -RA SCT025 OVC060
FM271500 18008G16KT 5SM -RA SCT008 OVC015 WS020/20040KT
FM271600 17008G16KT 2SM RA BR BKN006 OVC015 WS020/19040KT
FM272000 18008KT 6SM -SHRA BR SCT004 BKN006 OVC015 WS020/21040KT
FM272200 23008KT P6SM BKN015 WS020/22045KT
FM280000 23008G16KT P6SM BKN040
FM281300 30012G24KT P6SM BKN040
KIAD 271459Z 2715/2818 19010G20KT P6SM BKN020 OVC040 WS020/20040KT
FM271600 17008G16KT 3SM -RA BR BKN008 OVC015 WS020/19040KT
FM272000 18008KT 6SM -SHRA BR SCT004 BKN006 OVC015 WS020/21040KT
FM272200 23008KT P6SM BKN015 WS020/22045KT
FM280000 23008G16KT P6SM BKN040
FM281300 30012G24KT P6SM BKN040
KIAD 271631Z 2717/2818 16008KT 4SM -RA BR OVC015 WS020/19040KT
FM272000 18008KT 6SM -SHRA BR SCT004 BKN006 OVC015 WS020/21040KT
FM272200 23008KT P6SM BKN015 WS020/22045KT
FM280000 23008G16KT P6SM BKN040
FM281300 30012G24KT P6SM BKN040
KIAD 271738Z 2718/2824 17008KT 3SM -RA BR OVC005
FM272000 21008G16KT 5SM -SHRA BR BKN020
FM272300 22008G16KT P6SM SCT050
FM280200 23007KT P6SM SCT050
FM281000 27009KT P6SM SCT040
FM281700 32010G20KT P6SM SCT130
FM282200 31008G16KT P6SM BKN150
KIAD 272000Z
2720/2824 18004KT 6SM BR OVC004
FM272300 22008G16KT P6SM BKN010
FM280200 23007KT P6SM SCT050
FM281000 27009KT P6SM SCT040
FM281700 32010G20KT P6SM SCT130
FM282200 31008G16KT P6SM BKN150
KIAD 272101Z 2721/2824
16005KT 6SM -DZ BR OVC003
FM272300 22008G16KT P6SM BKN008
FM280200 25009KT P6SM SCT050
FM281000 27009KT P6SM SCT040
FM281700 32010G20KT P6SM SCT130
FM282200 31008G16KT P6SM BKN150
KBWI 271120Z 2712/2818 19005KT P6SM OVC130
FM271500 19008KT 5SM -RA BR SCT025 OVC040 WS020/20040KT
FM271700 16009KT 2SM RA BR BKN006 OVC015 WS020/20040KT
FM272300 20008G16KT P6SM BKN015
FM280100 23008G16KT P6SM BKN040
FM281300 29012G24KT P6SM BKN040
KBWI 271459Z 2715/2818 19008KT P6SM SCT025 BKN050 WS020/20040KT
FM271700 16009KT 4SM -RA BR BKN006 OVC015 WS020/20040KT
FM272300 20008G16KT P6SM BKN015
FM280100 23008G16KT P6SM BKN040
FM281300 29012G24KT P6SM BKN040
KBWI 271738Z 2718/2824 19004KT 2SM -RA OVC008 WS020/19040KT
FM271900 17009KT 3SM SHRA BR OVC008 WS020/19040KT
FM272100 20008G16KT 6SM -SHRA BR OVC010
FM272200 22010G20KT P6SM BKN015
FM280000 23010G20KT P6SM SCT050
FM280200 25007KT P6SM SCT050
FM281000 29008G16KT P6SM SCT120
FM281700 32012G23KT P6SM SCT120
KBWI 271911Z 2719/2824 33004KT P6SM -SHRA OVC004 WS020/19040KT
FM272100 20008G16KT P6SM OVC010
FM272200 22010G20KT P6SM BKN015
FM280000 23010G20KT P6SM SCT050
FM280200 25007KT P6SM SCT050
FM281000 29008G16KT P6SM SCT120
FM281700 32012G23KT P6SM SCT120
KBWI 272101Z
2721/2824 12003KT 1SM -DZ BR OVC004
FM272300 20005KT P6SM OVC008
FM280200 25008G16KT P6SM SCT050
FM281000 29008G16KT P6SM SCT120
FM281700 32012G23KT P6SM SCT120
KBWI 272207Z 2722/2824
12003KT 3/4SM -DZ BR OVC002
FM272300 20005KT 4SM BR OVC005
FM280200 25008G16KT P6SM SCT050
FM281000 29008G16KT P6SM SCT120
FM281700 32012G23KT P6SM SCT120
KBWI 272331Z 2800/2906 22011G24KT 6SM -DZ BR BKN014
FM280200 26010G18KT P6SM SCT130
FM281300 31014G24KT P6SM BKN040