Piper Malibu - Down off coast of Florida.

Weather in Florida sucks today; rain and high winds, my airport TAF predicted 40K wind shear at 2000’ this morning.
 
Looks like there may have been some severe convective activity in the area.
 
I think there were some tornado warnings down there today, very convective stuff
 
Not a good day to fly in Florida.
 
That’s some serious crap to be navigating through. Maybe something nasty just to the west in that echo before lost contact. D06F1F8E-4402-4F4E-9CF4-0BE8E72FC550.jpeg
 
We had thunderstorm and tornado watches and warnings all morning and into early afternoon. Terrible day to fly.
 
Even local KC Weather guy knew you should try to connect in FL today..
 
Assuming that they find the wreckage, I'm going to assume that they found some significant structural failure (tail falls off, etc.) from which recovery would not have been possible. When this happened to the Malibus earlier in their history it was determined that a pilot had to try pretty hard to overstress the airframe to that point. I don't know the pilot's background, but that seems the most likely. Flew into severe turbulence and overstressed the plane trying to keep wings and altitude level. The FlightAware radar probably doesn't match the time very well given the precip (or rather lack thereof) at that point.

I took a look back at MCO and saw that they didn't appear to have any ceasing of operations at that time. ISM didn't have anyone flying in and out, but seeing that he didn't have an issue until about the FL/GA border in the low 20s, this is less of a departure issue and more of an issue avoiding weather en-route.
 
Realize it’s on opposite coast but winds were horrendous in Cedar Key Thursday - to point that they shut down incoming car traffic to the island all Thursday night. Sure wouldn’t have flown Thursday.
 
benyflyguy said:
Just posted by @topgun260
https://www.firstcoastnews.com/arti...beach/77-186dc734-e818-43c8-a82d-cafa1395ed5b

Implies he had just done training. Anybody here fly a Malibu? What kind of training would be be getting?? Is that like initial flight training for that aircraft? Could have that been at KISM?? So many more questions.
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Someone in Maryland does PA46 specific training. The Martix is 30 hours ( from what I remember), while the Malibu is 40. It is an intentese 1 week course, and from what I have heard most insurance companies require this course or something very similar before they will sign you off in the plane.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
James331 said:
Seems like he didn’t appreciate that line of activity

BSBD
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It's depressing these events keep occuring. The common elements of the incidents are a postcrash radar image of a clearly defined line of thunderstorms, failure to obtain weather briefings, ignored forecasts of extreme wind shear and temperature changes, and photographs of aircraft structure torn apart as if it were tissue paper.
 
Could have been in IMC and found himself in a cell he couldn't or didn't see on the radar.
 
GRG55 said:
Could have been in IMC and found himself in a cell he couldn't or didn't see on the radar.
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If he had onboard radar, not sure about that
 
No one found audio yet. That will interesting to hear what transpired between ATC and the pilot.
 
James331 said:
With onboard radar, not sure about that
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Ya, whatever James.
It's happened with jets.
How much experience did the guy have in serious IMC, interpreting the radar? It was a piston single after all.
 
GRG55 said:
Ya, whatever James.
It's happened with jets.
How much experience did the guy have in serious IMC, interpreting the radar? It was a piston single after all.
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The type of airframe means little, also never seen anything that said the type of engine has anything to do with the return you get from radar.

I mean I also fly a single engine piston and would be down to take the crap weather Pepsi challenge with most regional pilots lol

But I do agree experience is a major factor.
 
How many of us swing by a weather and/or radar picture at least within a hour of departure? That may be a tighter timeframe with major weather present. Many of these decisions should be made on the comfort of your chair or couch.

Don’t know the experience level, especially sad about the young son along.
 
Hoo boy.

"He had very little experience in the airplane," Booth said. "It's been reported that this was his first-ever flight without an instructor on board, so the pilot shouldn't have undertaken this flight."​
 
Half Fast said:
Hoo boy.

"He had very little experience in the airplane," Booth said. "It's been reported that this was his first-ever flight without an instructor on board, so the pilot shouldn't have undertaken this flight."​
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That’s pretty damning. I remember my first flight with family on board since I started flying again .. I was texting with my CFI both sides of the flight...reviewing weather and planning.
 
Half Fast said:
Hoo boy.

"He had very little experience in the airplane," Booth said. "It's been reported that this was his first-ever flight without an instructor on board, so the pilot shouldn't have undertaken this flight."​
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On other hand,.....

Surely he had flown solo before. This may have been his first flight after getting his certificate. Seems like a strange statement from an "aviation expert."

Or was he still on a student ticket?
 
Half Fast said:
On other hand,.....

Surely he had flown solo before. This may have been his first flight after getting his certificate. Seems like a strange statement from an "aviation expert."

Or was he still on a student ticket?
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It sounded like it was his first “solo” in this plane. Are there that many students training on a Malibu??
 
I did PA46 initial training in that area a few years back. PA46 is one of those types where you're simply not going to get insurance without completing a pretty thorough type course provided by an instructor the insurance company approves (there aren't many of them, and they charge a decent penny).

Sad. May they RIP.
 
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