On Mobility, or Why We Don't Have Flying Cars Yet

DJTorrente

DJTorrente

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DJTorrente
Mobility trumps density.

If you are obsessed with mobility, you will attach great importance to Uber, Waymo, self-driving vehicles more generally, and better aviation. [emphasis added] To me these are major advances, and they all can get much, much better yet.

. . .

These points were obvious to many people in the 1960s. The Jetsons had their (safe) flying cars. The ultimate innovation in Star Trek was the transporter.

. . .

Switzerland, a highly successful country, also pays great heed to mobility. The Swiss tunnels through the Alps are some of Europe’s greatest achievements, though today we take them for granted. And the Swiss are trying to do road upgrades without slowing traffic. You don’t have to put more people in Bern if it is easier to get to Bern, and away from Bern.
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Mobility vs. density in American history, (Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution)
ht, Is Mobility More Important than Density? (Ilya Somin, Volokh Conspiracy)
 
DJTorrente said:
Mobility trumps density.
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You'll find this has been one of the core ideas behind the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concept for the past 50+ years, with 100s of articles and white papers written about it.
 
In ten years or less! Fly right from your driveway!

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Oops. That was published in 1957. Still don't have anything like it, whether electric or IC powered. If IC engines, or even turbines, aren't light and powerful enough to do it, what makes us think that batteries will do it?

We old guys are skeptical, and it would seem to be rightly so.
 
Dan Thomas said:
We old guys are skeptical, and it would seem to be rightly so.
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Its good to be skeptical, but things are moving along. While I wouldn't ride in one, China now has 2 CAAC type certificated eVTOLs flying (eHang & AutoFlight Cargo version) with the AutoFlight pax version starting type certification last month I believe. And eHang's eVTOL is halfway through its AOC approval to start commercial ops. They have also started exporting them as well. Joby has started Stage 4 of the FAA TC process and Archer is at the end of Stage 3. And now that the FAA has recently finalized their powered-lift type certification process, I expect more will begin the process as well. Germany's Volocopter is also at the tail end of the EASA type certification process so I think you might see some western versions earn their TC in 2025.
 
Dan Thomas said:
In ten years or less! Fly right from your driveway!

View attachment 132826

Oops. That was published in 1957. Still don't have anything like it, whether electric or IC powered. If IC engines, or even turbines, aren't light and powerful enough to do it, what makes us think that batteries will do it?

We old guys are skeptical, and it would seem to be rightly so.
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Man, as a kid growing up in the 60s I would read Popular Science and Popular Mechanics and dream about all the neat things we would have by 1985, like flying cars, self driving cars, weekend trips to the moon and self cleaning houses and many other neat things we still don't have...
 
Zeldman said:
Man, as a kid growing up in the 60s I would read Popular Science and Popular Mechanics and dream about all the neat things we would have by 1985, like flying cars, self driving cars, weekend trips to the moon and self cleaning houses and many other neat things we still don't have...
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All I want is Rosie the Robot to fold my laundry. Seriously, that's it. That was my only expectation of the future 40 years ago, but nope, Big Laundry couldn't even give me that.
 
What good is a flying car going to do for you?
You can't use it anywhere near Washington, DC.
You will be stuck on the ground every time a politician comes to your city.
How do you see and avoid in rush hour traffic in any big city in America.

Just my humble opinion, but there is no infrastructure at all, zero, to support flying cars.
Just grumbling, because I've been waiting for my Moller for over 50 years.
 
Shepherd said:
Just my humble opinion, but there is no infrastructure at all, zero, to support flying cars.
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Except the infrastructure that your flying cars would use was developed decades ago under the UAM concept. And about a dozen large US cities have had a written UAM infrastructure plan for just about the same length of time.

Now enter the eVTOLs, VTOLs, eSTOLS. It’s the aircraft that fits the UAM concept so now those original cities, and about 2 dozen more large/medium cities, are implementing/developing their UAM infrastructure plans. I believe there are 6 UAM vertiports under construction at the moment in the US with more being built internationally. So its never been “zero” at least in the past 50 years.
 
Bell206 said:
Except the infrastructure that your flying cars would use was developed decades ago under the UAM concept. And about a dozen large US cities have had a written UAM infrastructure plan for just about the same length of time.

Now enter the eVTOLs, VTOLs, eSTOLS. It’s the aircraft that fits the UAM concept so now those original cities, and about 2 dozen more large/medium cities, are implementing/developing their UAM infrastructure plans. I believe there are 6 UAM vertiports under construction at the moment in the US with more being built internationally. So its never been “zero” at least in the past 50 years.
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I don’t consider “plans” infrastructure nor do I consider something “under construction” useable infrastructure.

Are you suggesting heliports as the existing infrastructure?
 
X3 Skier said:
Are you suggesting heliports as the existing infrastructure?
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Within a UAM or AAM plan, yes, as that was the prevalent method at the time. However, a number of those older plans had exceptions for new technologies which could be adapted into the master plan like tilt-rotors or even flying cars. So if a viable flying car had been around back then like a tilt-rotor the UAM infrastructure would have adapted to handle it as well.

With the advent of the recent eVTOLs the FAA issued new guidance in 2022 on Vertiport certification. This allows those previous heliports to also receive Vertiport certification provided it meets the requirements as not all heliports do. I believe 3 heliports have received such certification. And this same UAM/AAM system will be used to handle the current list of flying cars like the AirCar.
 
Zeldman said:
Man, as a kid growing up in the 60s I would read Popular Science and Popular Mechanics and dream about all the neat things we would have by 1985, like flying cars, self driving cars, weekend trips to the moon and self cleaning houses and many other neat things we still don't have...
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You had flying DeLoreans in 1985. What are you complaining about?
 
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