Newbie IMC question

tuwood

tuwood

Pre-takeoff checklist
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tuwood
I apologize in advance for a dumb newbie question, but my wife asked me this morning and I wasn't 100% sure of the answer. I'm only a week after my discovery flight, so I haven't officially started my PPL lessons yet.

This morning was very foggy and overcast in Omaha and looking at the weather for the nearest airport to my house (KMLE) it shows 1/4SM FG OVC002 which I believe means 1/4 mile visibility overcast at 200' AGL and foggy.
My wife asked me the question of what would I do if I were flying and the weather changed to foggy like this and my obvious response was that I wouldn't be flying. She then pressed about what if I was already flying and it changed unexpectedly, to which I responded that I'd divert to an alternate runway.
I then look at Foreflight, which I'm still trying to learn and there isn't a runway within 150 miles that doesn't have the virtually the same conditions. :dunno:

So, my question for you guys in the real world. Is this the type of thing that a pilot is relying on weather forecasts and such to ensure that you don't get ever get into a VFR to IMC situation with weather like this and if you do you're straight up screwed. (pull the CAPS chute :yikes:) Or is it something that rolls in somewhat predictable where you can find an alternate landing location to the east (or whatever) for a while before the weather rolls across the land like it is this morning.

To add some more context I'm still building my wife's confidence towards GA as I move forward with my PPL and there was a poor guy that appears to have (my guess) gotten into a VFR to IMC situation just north of us in Nebraska a couple days ago and sadly perished. This kind of stuff isn't helping my cause. :(

Here's a picture out the back window this morning and the Foreflight map showing the ceiling:
IMG_3951_zps0yqk4eex.jpg


IMG_0038_zpsdppowpoh.png
 
What I have discovered through the years is something many would say is simple and obvious. And still others will get seriously into the details of a number of weather products.

If the general area is forecast to be marginally VFR and the temperature/dewpoint spread is small, one can expect conditions to go from VFR to MVFR to IFR to LIFRand back again with the tiniest changes and in a few seconds. And if the temperature is generally decreasing, the likelihood of returning of VFR or MVFR conditions gets smaller.

As a VFR pilot, I try not to get into those situations to begin with and they even concern me as an IFR pilot!
 
If you couldn't get in to your destination then you go to your alternate. However if there's another airport reporting conditions good enough to land there then you can do that too. You're not locked into your filed alternate, you can change it. You'll find controllers will help you with pilot reports and where pilots are getting in. There's an old saying in flying "always give yourself an out" meaning always have another plan in mind if things don't work out. Good advice.

edit: my bad, thought you were working on your instrument. :dunno:
 
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That is why proper pre-flighting and weather analysis is so important. I've never gone up in a plane and had what you're describing happen to me. And, just in case something like this does, I always leave with full fuel.

I've got about 250 hours and my instrument rating.

If you were up in conditions that were very solid VFR the chance that they would go to low IFR without your knowledge are rare (in my opinion). UNLESS you didn't do a proper briefing ahead of time.

When I go anywhere I want to know what conditions are going to be when I takeoff, along the route I'm taking and when I anticipate to land as well as any alternates (and having an alternate even in VFR conditions is a good idea).

Before my instrument rating, I'd never go anywhere in MVFR conditions that threatened to go IFR. Mostly because I didn't want to either divert or get stuck somewhere. If they were MVFR I just stayed in the pattern and did some practice knowing during the day. I always had the option of a Special VFR (worse case). At night, that wouldn't work of course.

Even when you get your instrument rating, they warn you that while you can (under part 91) takeoff in 0/0 conditions it's a bad idea. Why? Because if you want to come back to where you just took off you may not be able to due to visibility issues.

I took a flight from North Carolina to FL a few weeks ago. Took off in conditions you mention in your post, OVC 002 BR -RA. Broke out at about 1000 feet, but on the way back I'm looking at the weather along the route and let me tell you, the pucker factor was HIGH. A lot of the airports I flew over were OVC 001 or less. I did have VFR airports within range the whole way back, but if I lost an engine, it would be a challenge for sure.
 
Yaeh if you are VFR you should not be near that. When I was VFR the forecast had to be at least 5000 ceiling and the same on the TAFs or I wouldn't go.

But to answer your question - would I pull CAPS... if I were VFR and it was a 300 foot ceiling - probably.

And I'll put on my flame suit now... when I was VFR and I still owned my SR20 I got caught in IFR. I did not pull the caps.

I knew the area well. I knew where I was. I was at 1500 feet and I simply was not dropping any lower. I called ATC and told them I was VFR that flew into IFR. I did not need to declare an emergency and I very much new how to fly an approach with auto pilot and I asked for vectors and traffic help to get me set up on an RNAV to my home base.

I flew that RNAV approach many times when I was VFR and I knew the ceiling was 1000 feet.. I let the auto pilot take me through the clouds and below the deck I was VFR back in.

Was I right, was I wrong?? I'm sure everyone will have an opinion. I flew safe and I landed safe... had my automation failed, I had a back up plan....
 
Well unless you're dealing with advection fog on the west cost, you're probably not going to get unexpected fog during your day flight. At least not widespread fog. Now nighttime, sure. I fly at all times of the night and fog can reach up and bite you in the butt if you're not careful. The key is to have a way out and a personal cut off. Obviously an alternate, but don't be flying miles and miles over fog hoping somehow it'll clear on arrival. You've backed yourself into a corner.

I haven't seen widespread unforcasted fog before like the image you attached. Localized areas, yep the weather forecasters Jack that up all the time. If you plan properly, you should have no problem navigating unforcasted localized fog.
 
Thanks for the input, it's pretty obvious as a VFR pilot I'd never want to go up on a day like today, but I wasn't sure if weather like this was something that would "sneak up" on somebody.
I do plan to start my instrument rating immediately after my PPL simply to be as prepared and safe as I possibly can, but it sounds like good decision making before I leave the ground is the better skill to hone. :)
 
Your wife has the mind of a good future pilot!

When the weather is like that I like to always have a place in my mind which I can go to that is a pretty solid out.
And, enough fuel to wait it out or go someplace else! Many ifr flights I land with ridiculous amounts of fuel.
 
EminiTrader said:
Yaeh if you are VFR you should not be near that. When I was VFR the forecast had to be at least 5000 ceiling and the same on the TAFs or I wouldn't go.

But to answer your question - would I pull CAPS... if I were VFR and it was a 300 foot ceiling - probably.

And I'll put on my flame suit now... when I was VFR and I still owned my SR20 I got caught in IFR. I did not pull the caps.

I knew the area well. I knew where I was. I was at 1500 feet and I simply was not dropping any lower. I called ATC and told them I was VFR that flew into IFR. I did not need to declare an emergency and I very much new how to fly an approach with auto pilot and I asked for vectors and traffic help to get me set up on an RNAV to my home base.

I flew that RNAV approach many times when I was VFR and I knew the ceiling was 1000 feet.. I let the auto pilot take me through the clouds and below the deck I was VFR back in.

Was I right, was I wrong?? I'm sure everyone will have an opinion. I flew safe and I landed safe... had my automation failed, I had a back up plan....
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One of the reasons I'm doing my training in a SR20 is because of the glass panel and CAPS. I'm certainly going to be smart before (and after) I get my instrument rating, but it's nice to know that I have a few options if the weather goes south in a hurry.

On a side note, I did a handful of ILS approaches and landings in the C172 this morning on the X-Plane flight sim with real world weather. It was genuinely stressful riding the localizer in with steam gauges until the runway appears at the last second. I can't imagine how stressful that would be in real life.
Now that I think of it, these conditions are probably too poor for even a standard instrument approach like that.
 
Well the first thing I did when I bought my SR20 was learned all the automation. I learned how to fly approaches on auto pilot. I heard way too many stories of VFR flying into IMC and dying.

That flight I mentioned was one of those things- Ceiling was not forcasted that low all day and yet it still happened. I remember leaving Naples, FL clear as could be and around lakeland it started getting low and then Ocala I was at 1800 scud running - going lower, and lower, until 1500 feet - about 15 minutes from home... Didnt want to go any lower than that :)

That was my FIRST week with that damn airplane. I was in IFR school a few days later!! I miss that old 20- she was a good plane. The 22 is way better though, but still miss my first plane - sentimental I guess.
 
EminiTrader said:
Ceiling was not forcasted that low all day and yet it still happened. I remember leaving Naples, FL clear as could be and around lakeland it started getting low and then Ocala I was at 1800 scud running - going lower, and lower, until 1500 feet - about 15 minutes from home... Didnt want to go any lower than that :).
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Remember you can always turn back to where it was VFR. Hopefully you have the fuel to do this.
 
mscard88 said:
Remember you can always turn back to where it was VFR. Hopefully you have the fuel to do this.
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That was my back up plan - go back to Lakeland!!

ALWAYS ALWAYS have at least 2 backups...
 
FWIW, Central FL sucks weather-wise early morning and during the summer. If you really want to avoid stuff, stick to the coast as long as you can (west coast).

On the other hand..Lakeland, Bartow and Winter Haven are excellent places to get some IFR currency done on the weekend, just be there before 9 AM and you can definitely get current.
 
tuwood said:
Thanks for the input, it's pretty obvious as a VFR pilot I'd never want to go up on a day like today, but I wasn't sure if weather like this was something that would "sneak up" on somebody.
I do plan to start my instrument rating immediately after my PPL simply to be as prepared and safe as I possibly can, but it sounds like good decision making before I leave the ground is the better skill to hone. :)
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Plan, plan, and plan. Have a plan before your flight, have a plan while you are flying, and have that keep your butt alive plan.
 
Caramon13 said:
FWIW, Central FL sucks weather-wise early morning and during the summer. If you really want to avoid stuff, stick to the coast as long as you can (west coast).

On the other hand..Lakeland, Bartow and Winter Haven are excellent places to get some IFR currency done on the weekend, just be there before 9 AM and you can definitely get current.
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Not important to this thread, but I was born in Bartow, FL. :) (moved away when I was 4)

I've seen the crazy weather down there at Disneyworld though, sunny one minute and down pouring the next.
 
You might want to start looking at the TAF for your airport occasionally and then comparing it to what you actually see.

The exercise will help you both understand the information presented and get comfortable with how good the weather guessers actually are.

Shortly after your first solo you'll start getting Lockhead Martin on the phone for briefings. It'll be a good kitchen table time with the speakerphone.

By the time you get your ticket you'll both be quite comfortable with the amount and quality of weather information available. Even without ADS-B in.
 
This is really a two part question. The first if conditions are so low, do you take off? The answer is no, VFR or IFR. VFR you've no business flying in it, and IFR you don't want to take off into anything you can't come back in.

However, flying VFR in a fast aircraft like a Cirrus it is possible for you to hit ground conditions as described, especially if flying somewhere you haven't been and aren't aware of local conditions. However, there are many tools available in the cockpit to plan your flight strategically. With luck you checked the forecast before you took off, but conditions canned will change. There are a number of products that can bring more or less real time weather into the cockpit, and you can use your radio to check conditions ahead. A good pilot isn't surprised by the weather.
 
In my opinion you ask good questions and have done a good job of checking things out before you ask the question. When I see your name I always read your posts.
I fly a slow VFR aircraft on the coast of Santa Maria, California and it is not at all unusual to have all of the costal airports within 50 miles fall below VFR minimums despite the TAFs promising clear skies. Usually I can divert inland where there are separate weather systems but not always. A half hour fuel reserve is simply not enough for where I fly.
As your experience grows you will become more familiar with your local weather patterns and weather reporting products so you will be surprised less often. The weather is not the same everywhere so when far from home even an instrument rated pilot needs to increase his vigilance.
I find value in reading the NTSB reports and try to imagine what was in the minds of VFR pilots who flew into IMC so I can recognize the chain of poor aviation decisions that led to the report.
There are a lot of Instrument rated pilots that have flown into weather that they couldn’t handle so in my opinion even when you have your instrument rating weather is an important part of flight planning and learning to say no is a useful skill.
I call Lockheed Martin and talk to a weather briefer before every flight. The Briefer usually knows more about how to interpret the various weather products and trends than I ever will.
 
tuwood said:
Thanks for the input, it's pretty obvious as a VFR pilot I'd never want to go up on a day like today, but I wasn't sure if weather like this was something that would "sneak up" on somebody.
I do plan to start my instrument rating immediately after my PPL simply to be as prepared and safe as I possibly can, but it sounds like good decision making before I leave the ground is the better skill to hone. :)
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Even being instrument rated, I don't like to go to a destination airport with <800 ceilings. That's just my personal limit. I figure that gives me 600 ft leeway if the forecast is wrong. I just don't want to be "that guy" in the NTSB report.

In-flight weather is so much more accessible than it used to be. I have a stratus with foreflight, so you can get reasonably recent updates from airports along the way. Unless mother nature hates you, the weather briefings and in-flight weather should keep you out of situations like your picture.
 
More to the point, have margins.

Yes, fog CAN sneak up on you, particularly as the sun sets on a clear windless humid day. It can even be widespread, or at least hang out in all the valleys (i.e., where the airports are). You should have some idea if this is in the cards from a thorough weather briefing with in-flight updates. But it is all the time in some places.

Be in contact with ATC to get early warnings.

And carry sufficient fuel to get someplace safe. 30 minutes are minimum for day VFR. I use 60, for every flight, no exceptions. If there is any doubt about the weather, you may want even more.

For those who say they'll depend on an autopilot, get some instrument training first. There is some indication that trusting an autopilot in IMC in the presence of an updraft may have killed the PA32 pilot in Bakersfield. Flight through fog can be very disorienting, and flight through a cloud layer may have turbulence that screws with your airspeed really badly on approach. A strong downdraft tracking a glideslope can fly you right into a stall if you don't figure out what's happening.
 
Weather is one of those really important topics that a lot of people don't cover. They look on weather.com and if they see partly cloudy, they go fly. You really need to have a good understanding of weather theory in order to become a successful pilot
 
tuwood said:
Not important to this thread, but I was born in Bartow, FL. :) (moved away when I was 4)

I've seen the crazy weather down there at Disneyworld though, sunny one minute and down pouring the next.
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Yes indeed. Summers can be rather challenging to fly. I've done my share of thunderstorm dodging over the last two years. And, I've had to put down ahead of a front.

Was coming home from Boca Raton and had to land at X14 (Labelle) due to a line of storms that ranged from north of Lakeland all the way down past Naples. Just a solid RED/WHITE line of junk.

Still, you're right the average storm is a torrential downpour for about 10-15 minutes and then sunny and steamy for the next hour...
 
As a VFR Private pilot you should know enough about weather to keep yourself out of that situation. As a VFR pilot, if you flew into IFR conditions, you should have come from VFR conditions so just Turn Around.

Now, when you get your IFR rating.. Heck, you could depart in that, but likely not come back down. Luckily you will have a lot more knowledge of the weather at that point that you would hopefully have a good alternate.
 
With proper planning I highly doubt this would ever happen.

All else fails stay under the layers and land in a field or road, airplanes don't know the difference between a runway and a road.
 
Everyones advise is pretty solid. With weather that low its typically easy to tell when it will come. One thing I didn't see mentioned yet which i think is important is the more you fly the more you learn your local area. I keep my bird down in florida, and just by the day and temperature and time of year when i wake up i could essentially tell how the rest of the days weather will turn out. The more you learn your local area and climate and topography you'll start to to understand when these conditions are most likely to exist.
 
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