Nearly half of Americans don't want a self-driving car

Salty said:
We now live in a world of lowest common denominator. We solve problems in the laziest way possible.
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We now live in that world? No. We have always lived in that world. Now is no different than it ever was. That's why I find the Amish so silly. They refuse to use zippers because its 'new technology' as though there was never a time when buttons didn't exist.

And yes, once the technology is baked, having machines do the task of driving will be orders of magnitude safer that letting people try their hand at it. Don't get me wrong, this technology is going to spill a lot of blood on the road between now and the time when its fully baked. But even with all that blood factored in, every single car that rolls off the assembly line with some level of automated driving ability results in fewer injuries and deaths than would have been the case if the technology didn't exist.
 
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Juliet Hotel said:
We now live in that world? No. We have always lived in that world. Now is no different than it ever was. That's why I find the Amish so silly. They refuse to use zippers because its 'new technology' as though there was never a time when buttons didn't exist.

And yes, once the technology is baked, having machines do the task of driving will be orders of magnitude safer that letting people try their hand at it. Don't get me wrong, this technology is going to spill a lot of blood on the road between now and the time when its fully baked. But even with all that blood factored in, every single car that rolls off the assembly line with some level of automated driving ability results in fewer injuries and deaths than would have been the case if the technology didn't exist.
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Technology. The new religion of the masses. Blind faith.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
This technology is coming. It will be here sooner than you think. And when it gets here, you will like it or at the very least not hate it.
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I'm guessing you're not too familiar with economics. We already have the technologies for full autonomy right now. In fact, it's been around for many years in the Ag industry. It's the economics involved in installing the infrastructure required to make it work for the masses. It will never happen when you have cities, counties, and even some states teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. They simply can't afford it, and neither can the taxpayers.

BTW... I was driving a fully autonomous combine earlier today helping my neighbor cut his corn. Never once touched the wheel except to change fields. I was even able to control the speed of the tractor (via radar) that was pulling the grain cart I was filling that was right by my side. Today's Ag equipment is beyond awesome! I had so much information at the tips of my fingers it was like driving the coolest video game ever.
 
As a new owner of a Tesla Model 3 I can tell you it is great fun and will kill you ... just like the Vette it replaced would.

However, as an investment on a FUTURE technology that MIGHT be able to get me to the store for milk and soft foods when eyesight or slower reactions have made me totally dependent on others it blows the non automated funmobile away.

Been there with all my folks and wife's folks ...not pretty.

For now it is fun to see what it will do and keeping track is just like landing with 15 g 30. We are not there yet but having fun with the on the air updates to see what the car is up to today. :) :)
 
Woo hoo!! I found another grumpy old man thread!! :happydance:

Wait... That's not really very hard on a pilot forum.
 
azblackbird said:
I'm guessing you're not too familiar with economics. We already have the technologies for full autonomy right now. In fact, it's been around for many years in the Ag industry. It's the economics involved in installing the infrastructure required to make it work for the masses. It will never happen when you have cities, counties, and even some states teetering on the edge of bankruptcy. They simply can't afford it, and neither can the taxpayers.
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I'm absolutely familiar with economics. I'm guessing you're not too familiar with the fact that all current autonomous vehicle development is focused on technology that requires zero additional infrastructure. No sensors embedded in roads. No special lines painted on the road surface. No lines painted on the road at all if need be in fact. Everything the vehicle needs to safely and successfully drive itself on currently existing roads with all existing real world obsticles and hazards (including weather) will be contained within the vehicle itself. No need for raising anyone's taxes or embedding anything in the streets or requiring autonomous to only run on roads isolated from manually driven vehicles.

That level of technology does not currently exist. But it most definitely will. Soon.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
I'm absolutely familiar with economics. I'm guessing you're not too familiar with the fact that all current autonomous vehicle development is focused on technology that requires zero additional infrastructure. No sensors embedded in roads. No special lines painted on the road surface. No lines painted on the road at all if need be in fact. Everything the vehicle needs to safely and successfully drive itself on currently existing roads with all existing real world obsticles and hazards (including weather) will be contained within the vehicle itself. No need for raising anyone's taxes or embedding anything in the streets or requiring autonomous to only run on roads isolated from manually driven vehicles.

That level of technology does not currently exist. But it most definitely will. Soon.
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That may be, and I'm too lazy to search right now, but I think I heard of issues where the cars on autopilot had problems in construction zones when the existing lane lines were painted over slightly and new lanes were shifted. People reporting that they had to take over to keep the car from sideswiping Jersey barriers in construction zones.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
... or requiring autonomous to only run on roads isolated from manually driven vehicles.
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I agree with all you wrote except this last part. I believe we will absolutely see autonomous only driving zones. I don't believe that AVs and manually driven cars will ever play nice enough together to achieve the goals set out for AVs. There is way to much chaos on the roads, streets and highways. I think we will see barricaded AV only lanes on the freeways in major cities first. Then we'll see AV only sections of big city downtown areas much like some cities are going to battery electric vehicles only now. Eventually the whole city and then all the highways and freeways connecting the cities after that.

In the end only in the most rural country areas will manual driving be allowed. This limitation will cause the consumers to stop buying manually driven cars and manufacturers will no longer make them. Manual driving will continue well into the 22nd century no doubt, but it will be more in line with hobby activities like horses are now. There will also be plenty of it in poor, 3rd world areas of the world where going all AV just won't be practical.

Mind you, I don't see this happening overnight. I expect we will see the first consumer approved and certified level 5 AVs probably in about 10 years. Soon after that, we'll start to see the beginning of the AV only zones. For most of the country to be AV only, will likely be about 30 years out yet. By then I'll be pretty old and ready for it!
 
Sluggo63 said:
That may be, and I'm too lazy to search right now, but I think I heard of issues where the cars on autopilot had problems in construction zones when the existing lane lines were painted over slightly and new lanes were shifted. People reporting that they had to take over to keep the car from sideswiping Jersey barriers in construction zones.
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Yes, the systems now are nowhere near level 5 yet. Particularly the Tesla system. All the companies have a ways to go, but they all seem determined that that is the future, so given time, it will happen.
 
Kenny Phillips said:
I just tried to reserve one, but it appears that they want money, unlike Ford and the GT.
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Hello?!! It's Tesla. Have you not been paying attention? The whole company is like a big Kickstarter campaign. Of course they want your money now.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
I'm guessing you're not too familiar with the fact that all current autonomous vehicle development is focused on technology that requires zero additional infrastructure.
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That's the problem. There are way too many variables in the development of full blown autonomy that even the most skilled programmers will never be able to foresee the problems that lie ahead. You want full autonomy? You have to have full conformity. Period! :yesnod:
 
azblackbird said:
That's the problem. There are way too many variables in the development of full blown autonomy that even the most skilled programmers will never be able to foresee the problems that lie ahead. You want full autonomy? You have to have full conformity. Period! :yesnod:
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Not really, AV cars today are based on self learning systems; often with huge databases. With the ability to share the learning across cars, they will gather more experience than most drivers will see in their life driving cars.
This is less of an issue of if, more of an issue of when or if allowed.
 
Dav8or said:
I think we will see barricaded AV only lanes on the freeways in major cities first. Then we'll see AV only sections of big city downtown areas much like some cities are going to battery electric vehicles only now. Eventually the whole city and then all the highways and freeways connecting the cities after that.
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You're partially right. What we will see in the future are entire newly built suburbs and neighborhoods that are autonomous friendly. As far as re-building entire inner city infrastructures. Not going to happen! Way to expensive and the taxpayers won't stand for it.
 
tspear said:
Not really, AV cars today are based on self learning systems; often with huge databases.
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All that self learning isn't going to do you a bit of good when all your sensors, cameras, and radar systems are covered with a half inch of frozen road grime. :biggrin:
 
azblackbird said:
All that self learning isn't going to do you a bit of good when all your sensors, cameras, and radar systems are covered with a half inch of frozen road grime. :biggrin:
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It's a lot cheaper to give each camera and radar its own dedicated sprayer and wiper than it is to rebuild cities.
 
azblackbird said:
That's the problem. There are way too many variables in the development of full blown autonomy that even the most skilled programmers will never be able to foresee the problems that lie ahead.
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"To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth—all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances."
-Lee De Forest, American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum tube, in 1957.

"Hence, if it requires, say, a thousand years to fit for easy flight a bird which started with rudimentary wings, or ten thousand for one which started with no wings at all and had to sprout them ab initio, it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in from one million to ten million years--provided, of course, we can meanwhile eliminate such little drawbacks and embarrassments as the existing relation between weight and strength in inorganic materials."
-The New York Times, Oct 9, 1903

"That the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced."
-Scientific American, January 2, 1909

"Well-informed people know that it is impossible to transmit the human voice over wires as may be done with dots and dashes of Morse code, and that, were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value."
-Unidentified Boston newspaper, 1865
 
azblackbird said:
All that self learning isn't going to do you a bit of good when all your sensors, cameras, and radar systems are covered with a half inch of frozen road grime. :biggrin:
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Right. Because things like heat and windshield wipers don't exist and even if they did exist, there would be no way to adapt them to other applications. :rolleyes:
 
flyingcheesehead said:
It's a lot cheaper to give each camera and radar its own dedicated sprayer and wiper than it is to rebuild cities.
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Juliet Hotel said:
Right. Because things like heat and windshield wipers don't exist and even if they did exist, there would be no way to adapt them to other applications. :rolleyes:
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Oh goodie... more expensive stuff that the average Joe will never be able to maintain. Look at the current cars being tested. You'll notice most all sensors are about the size of a dime sans the AWACS type camera/sonar/radar mounted on the roof. Nothing like driving a tele-tubby car. I can't wait for the carnage. :p

ubercar.png
 
Juliet Hotel said:
"To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth—all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances."
-Lee De Forest, American radio pioneer and inventor of the vacuum tube, in 1957.

"Hence, if it requires, say, a thousand years to fit for easy flight a bird which started with rudimentary wings, or ten thousand for one which started with no wings at all and had to sprout them ab initio, it might be assumed that the flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in from one million to ten million years--provided, of course, we can meanwhile eliminate such little drawbacks and embarrassments as the existing relation between weight and strength in inorganic materials."
-The New York Times, Oct 9, 1903

"That the automobile has practically reached the limit of its development is suggested by the fact that during the past year no improvements of a radical nature have been introduced."
-Scientific American, January 2, 1909

"Well-informed people know that it is impossible to transmit the human voice over wires as may be done with dots and dashes of Morse code, and that, were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value."
-Unidentified Boston newspaper, 1865
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Cherry-picked counter-examples don't prove anything. If it were worth the time to do so, it would be easy to make a list of technology ideas that people thought were going to be practical but turned out not to be. The truth is that we just don't know with certainty what the future holds.
 
Palmpilot said:
The truth is that we just don't know with certainty what the future holds.
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I do... besides the hackers and the games they'll be playing with these cars, I predict a few mischievous individuals will be developing spray-type chaff systems that will really get the party going. :lol:
 
azblackbird said:
Oh goodie... more expensive stuff that the average Joe will never be able to maintain. Look at the current cars being tested. You'll notice most all sensors are about the size of a dime sans the AWACS type camera/sonar/radar mounted on the roof. Nothing like driving a tele-tubby car. I can't wait for the carnage. :p
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Do you have an actual argument or point with this? Or are you just being obdurate for sport?
 
azblackbird said:
I do... besides the hackers and the games they'll be playing with these cars, I predict a few mischievous individuals will be developing spray-type chaff systems that will really get the party going. :lol:
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Oh right right right. The old bad hombres will hack them in order to create havoc and/or kill everyone argument. I love how people swear this will happen while completely ignoring the fact that the computer in every vehicle manufactured today could do things like take the brake system offline or command full throttle regardless of pedal position if hacked and yet the number of number of times this has actually happened remains approximately zero give or take zero.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Oh right right right. The old bad hombres will hack them in order to create havoc and/or kill everyone argument. I love how people swear this will happen while completely ignoring the fact that the computer in every vehicle manufactured today could do things like take the brake system offline or command full throttle regardless of pedal position if hacked and yet the number of number of times this has actually happened remains approximately zero give or take zero.
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The reason is most of the computers in cars today are too dumb with no accessible interfaces. It is precisely that "stupidity" of the current tech in the cars which prevents it from happening.

In order to make the AV smarter and better able to learn, every one I have read upon has a network interface. Every network can be hacked eventually. It even happened to Tesla with the vaunted over the air updates. They were lucky it was academics who found the issue instead of hackers.

When you consider that people keep cars for ten to twenty years, you have a cybersecurity problem that the IT industry as a whole does not know how to address. Compounding this is most companies think of Cybersecurity as an adon not as something core/fundamental. Especially due to the fact cybersecurity is hard and expensive and does not make money. The result, constant patches, constant hardware updates required to run the additional security (you can see this in the industrial sector with real time processing for autonation)

Sent from my SM-J737T using Tapatalk
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Do you have an actual argument or point with this? Or are you just being obdurate for sport?
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I'm all for total autonomy. I just don't see it happening unless there's conformity in all the nations streets and roadways. I'd love nothing more than to hop in a car and program in my destination and then kick back and take a nap. A few side and roof mounted cameras and radar pods just ain't going to cut it. You have smart cars, you also need smart roadways for those cars to operate they way they're designed.

Juliet Hotel said:
love how people swear this will happen while completely ignoring the fact that the computer in every vehicle manufactured today could do things like take the brake system offline or command full throttle regardless of pedal position if hacked and yet the number of number of times this has actually happened remains approximately zero give or take zero.
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Oh it happens quite frequently. It's just that it's a hush-hush secret between the vehicle manufacturers and the insurance companies. In fact, those little dongles that insurance companies issued to their clients for their "safe driving" discounts are responsible for numerous hacks on vehicles. You need to take a trip to the dark side of the internet and educate yourself on these matters. It's amazing what you can find out about up and coming technologies and how they can be easily exploited.
 
Oh the dark web. Yeah that sounds like a credible source of info. Lots of peer reviewed research papers coming from the dark web these days I'm sure. :rolleyes:

Ok so I'm a hacker. I'm going to hack a car. What's in it for me? There is no identity info in the car I can steal and sell. I probably won't get far with old 'you've been hacked, give us your credit card number and you can have your kids baby pics back' trick since people don't tend to keep their kids baby pics stored in their cars computer. So some hacker is going to know that I like to hit the McDonalds drive-thru on my way to work in the morning? How does that payoff for someone taking the time to do the work of hacking my car? Because even hackers don't work for free these days.
 
azblackbird said:
I'm all for total autonomy. I just don't see it happening unless there's conformity in all the nations streets and roadways. I'd love nothing more than to hop in a car and program in my destination and then kick back and take a nap. A few side and roof mounted cameras and radar pods just ain't going to cut it. You have smart cars, you also need smart roadways for those cars to operate they way they're designed.

Oh it happens quite frequently. It's just that it's a hush-hush secret between the vehicle manufacturers and the insurance companies. In fact, those little dongles that insurance companies issued to their clients for their "safe driving" discounts are responsible for numerous hacks on vehicles. You need to take a trip to the dark side of the internet and educate yourself on these matters. It's amazing what you can find out about up and coming technologies and how they can be easily exploited.
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LMAO, but that sounds like a great conspiracy theory. The device the insurance companies give you is a simple logger. The big "hack" of 2015 with Progressive was that the data was not encrypted. So if someone takes the devices, they can find out how you drive.... Unless the tech changed recently, they do not offer any outside interface for someone to hack your car.

Tim
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Ok so I'm a hacker. I'm going to hack a car. What's in it for me?
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Bragging rights... nothing more nothing less. For many it's all about the challenge and the thrill.

BTW... here's a senate report on the "smart roadways" I was referring too earlier. I'll get you up to speed on this stuff sooner or later so you don't sound so naive. ;)
 
tspear said:
Unless the tech changed recently, they do not offer any outside interface for someone to hack your car.
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The more well known exploit was this one. Most hackers these days are going after the fleet rigs who monitor their employee driving habits with the same or similar technologies. Those are the ones that aren't being publicized.
 
azblackbird said:
Bragging rights... nothing more nothing less. For many it's all about the challenge and the thrill.
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Yeah, not buying it. Sorry. Not saying it won't happen. But I just don't see it becoming a measurable problem. An isolated event here or there? Maybe. But not something anyone needs to lose sleep over in the grand scheme.

BTW... here's a senate report on the "smart roadways" I was referring too earlier. I'll get you up to speed on this stuff sooner or later so you don't sound so naive. ;)
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So your proof of what you claim is a transcript of testimony to a senate committee made people who are not in any way employed in the development of automated vehicle technology saying essentially 'Based on nothing more than our own speculation we're concerned that autonomous vehicle technology might end up requiring additional infrastructure although we have no idea what that might be because like I said, we're only guessing. But we want to be ready to implement that new infrastructure when and if someone who actually knows what they're talking about tells us that we need it."

Well now you've got me wondering how I could have ever been so foolish as to not believe you. :rolleyes:
 
azblackbird said:
The more well known exploit was this one. Most hackers these days are going after the fleet rigs who monitor their employee driving habits with the same or similar technologies. Those are the ones that aren't being publicized.
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Steering is no longer mechanical? It's drive-by-wire?
 
azblackbird said:
The more well known exploit was this one. Most hackers these days are going after the fleet rigs who monitor their employee driving habits with the same or similar technologies. Those are the ones that aren't being publicized.
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Actually, the mertoliner got a lot less press then the Progressive Auto one. In fact the metrolioner hack only demonstrated they could get to the data port. It did not demonstrate any control of the car, the rest was all theoretical.
So far, the published hacks on the trucks have been denial of service. Basically they block the monitoring. I have not seen any on the control of the truck. If it could be done, it likely would have already. To much money holding FedEx's fleet captive for ransom.

Tim
 
wayne said:
Steering is no longer mechanical? It's drive-by-wire?
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I had a Volvo XC-90 loaner car in 2017. I don't know if it had full "drive-by-wire" steering but it would actually turn the steering wheel to move the car back into the lane when the lane-keeping-assist decided it needed to. It and my current Honda Odyssey will apply the brakes (quite hard) if it detects "danger".
 
Oh yeah, I forgot about the new "land assist" functions. Not sure if that's like autopilots where you can apply enough power to resist it or not, but the ability for the car to steer is there now. I just forgot about that as I've never driven a car with that capability.
 
wayne said:
Not sure if that's like autopilots where you can apply enough power to resist it or not, but the ability for the car to steer is there now. I just forgot about that as I've never driven a car with that capability.
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Self parking cars have been out for several years. Same concept as lane assist and other similar technologies employed in today's new vehicles.

 
azblackbird said:
Self parking cars have been out for several years. Same concept as lane assist and other similar technologies employed in today's new vehicles.
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Yep, just wasn't thinking of that stuff as I've never driven a car with those capabilities. It's not like my car is old, it's a 2016. Heck, I prefer a car with a manual transmission. My car does have a back-up camera, but I largely use that for distance behind me. I use the mirrors, or looking around, to guide it into a spot.

Kids these days. Sheesh.
 
tspear said:
Tesla with the vaunted over the air updates.

When you consider that people keep cars for ten to twenty years, you have a cybersecurity problem that the IT industry as a whole does not know how to address.
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Uh, look what you wrote earlier. That's how you address it. Make the software easily updatable like Tesla, and if a hole is found (which it probably will be, given the time frame, like you said) then it can be patched and deployed to the fleet, and it's no biggie. If you think like a traditional car company and never really update your software (and certainly don't deploy it to the whole fleet), then yes, it's a massive problem.

azblackbird said:
I'm all for total autonomy. I just don't see it happening unless there's conformity in all the nations streets and roadways.
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There *IS*.

Interstate Highways in particular have a very well fleshed out set of standards, which makes them relatively easy in the grand scheme of things, which is why Tesla et al have gotten systems working there first for the most part. However, there are standards everywhere else too. In a given developed country, signs will be consistent, for one. We have yellow paint on the left and white paint on the right.

You have smart cars, you also need smart roadways for those cars to operate they way they're designed.
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Except that "the way they're designed" is to NOT need smart roadways.
 
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