Nearly half of Americans don't want a self-driving car

[wayne]

"Nearly half don't want" means more than half do want or are open to the idea. I'll bet at least some of that minority will come around.

Not exactly. The trend is going the other way.

From the article:

Forty-nine percent of respondents said they would never own a fully-autonomous car, known in the industry as a Level 5 vehicle. Two years ago, 30 percent said they would never buy one.

Meanwhile, a majority of people (63 percent) believed in 2016 that roadways would be safer if all vehicles were fully autonomous. That number has dropped to 45 percent.

Acceptance is strongest among millennials, 61 percent of whom wouldn’t rule out buying a Level 5 autonomous vehicle. A whopping 71 percent of Baby Boomers said they wouldn’t buy one, more than any other generation.​

I like driving. I don't like traffic, or rather I don't like heavy/stop-and-go traffic. Full Level 5 would be nice for the elderly, people with physical disabilities that make driving challenging or impossible and other things. I think we could get elderly to stop driving earlier and more easily if they could buy a Level 5 autonomous vehicle.

 

[MauleSkinner]

And, of course, there's still no small diesel pickups that have it, so I'm considering making my own rudimentary one instead of just passing everyone who can't just PICK A SPEED.

Do like my grandpa did...a piece of threaded rod with a crank attached to the accelerator pedal and an over-center mechanism to engage it. The quick disconnect was to tap the accelerator.

 

[MauleSkinner]

Now for safety purposes it just makes sense. Because, even at this point, I do trust them more than most drivers. Just like I trust the precision of an AP more than most pilots.

I trust autopilots, but my hand is covering the disengage button when I get close to stuff in case of a malfunction...”close to stuff”would be 100% of the time in a car, so there’s no advantage to letting it drive itself.

 

[tspear]

If you drove in kalifornia with all the traffic problems and stupid drivers you would welcome autonomous cars.
I'm all for it, BUT there must also be a manual mode where you can turn off all the NANNY components.

CA is nothing compared to the bad drivers in Boston. I have probably driven in every city in the USA with over 250K people in it, all over Europe, some in Brazil, lots of Caribbean islands.... Nowhere are they as bad as Boston; and I prefer the unpaved roads in Rio compared to some of the Boston streets.

Tim

 

[Velocity173]

I trust autopilots, but my hand is covering the disengage button when I get close to stuff in case of a malfunction...”close to stuff”would be 100% of the time in a car, so there’s no advantage to letting it drive itself.

With around 35-40,000 fatalities on the road every year, I think a computer can do better than most people. I trust the computer to get a drunk home over the human. I trust a computer not to fall asleep at the wheel. I trust a computer will allow someone to text and drive and I trust a computer to drive at a safe speed for conditions.

Now, 100 % trust? Heck no but if every vehicle on the road had mandatory self driving capability, I trust it’s failure rate over the vast majority of human drivers.

 

[genna]

I hate that too, but in many (most/all?) cars and trucks that is a programmable option.
For instance:
https://www.coloradofans.com/forums...6-tip-changing-automatic-door-lock-modes.html

Not all. Mine can not be programmed. It locks as you start moving, but doesn’t unlock. Not a problem for front occupants as the door will open from inside, but rear doors do not unlock from inside and picking up someone requires me fumbling with switches.

GM for you. Irritates the hell out of me when dealing with passengers.

 

[Tantalum]

"Nearly half don't want" means more than half do want or are open to the idea. I'll bet at least some of that minority will come around.

Thank you. It's so easy to report statistical figures in a way to push a version of the story. The headline could also have said "More than half of Americans want a self driving car"

**I don't really see what the big bad scary wolf here is. I'd much rather go out for a night of drinking and get in my own car and it drive me home then have to wait and pay for an Uber / Lyft / Taxi

Once people realize how great it is that they can go get in their Camry, punch in a destination, and off they go while they can read the paper, have a Bic Mac, or post to Instagram they'll be all over it. The tech still has to mature.. but for how poorly most people drive I'll gladly welcome the day that algorithms drive us places. My CAVEAT IS.. you should always be able to have your own "manual driving" mode and be able to over ride the SkyNet computers

 

[wayne]

It doesn't make sense to own an autonomous car. You'd rent based on need. You'd pull up uber and click and button and the closest car in your chosen class will pull up to your front door.

Sadly we'll have a "vehicle subscription". One of the never-ending things that just sucks money away.

Not that buying a vehicle is an investment, at least not daily-drivers, but still. Might not seem bad to those that buy a new car every 3 years (or less), but for those that own them many years it could be pricey.

 

[Tantalum]

I trust autopilots, but my hand is covering the disengage button when I get close to stuff in case of a malfunction...”close to stuff”would be 100% of the time in a car, so there’s no advantage to letting it drive itself.

Would you trust a computer or Susie-with-minivan-full-of-crying-kids more? Or what about the computer vs Joe-I-only-had-6-beers-and-a-vodka-tonic

I'll take the computer every time.

Nowhere are they as bad as Boston

Not only are they bad.. but they're remarkably angry. CA drivers can be pretty spacey, but generally not seething with road rage like they do Boston. My first 8 driving years were in Boston and there were at least 3 times I saw people throw trash, water bottles, etc., at each other and a further 4 times I saw people get out of their cars to start screaming at each other. Have never seen that happen in the last 10 years in CA or anywhere else. Their is also no discipline.. people will inch over the line on a yellow light then sit in traffic for 5 minutes blocking the whole intersection. The trolleys are and MBTA are no matter. It was almost routine for busses and trolleys to breeze right through red lights.. for a while I almost wondered if they had some kind of police power that made them immune to traffic laws

 

[wayne]

There is some speculation that autonomous vehicles could significantly impact short commercial flights. Probably more true for owned vehicles versus rented/leased/subscription vehicles. Being able to read/nap/work on a trip makes it much more doable on the road and then no TSA and other air travel hassles.

 

[chartbundle]

Do like my grandpa did...a piece of threaded rod with a crank attached to the accelerator pedal and an over-center mechanism to engage it. The quick disconnect was to tap the accelerator.

I actually can use the cruise control up and down buttons, but at the rate I'm going they'll be the first part of the car to wear out.

 

[genna]

Thank you. It's so easy to report statistical figures in a way to push a version of the story. The headline could also have said "More than half of Americans want a self driving car"

**I don't really see what the big bad scary wolf here is. I'd much rather go out for a night of drinking and get in my own car and it drive me home then have to wait and pay for an Uber / Lyft / Taxi

Once people realize how great it is that they can go get in their Camry, punch in a destination, and off they go while they can read the paper, have a Bic Mac, or post to Instagram they'll be all over it. The tech still has to mature.. but for how poorly most people drive I'll gladly welcome the day that algorithms drive us places. My CAVEAT IS.. you should always be able to have your own "manual driving" mode and be able to over ride the SkyNet computers

Did you read the article?

Here is another one on the same study: https://www.forbes.com/sites/gregga...ttitude-and-congestion-problems/#150858c14e1a

"Over those two years, awareness of Level 4 autonomy, rose from 40% to 64%. Level 4 vehicles are designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip, but there may be situations where the human driver must take control.

But when asked if they found that capability appealing, only 17% said yes, down from 30% in 2016. Nearly half, 49%, said they would never buy a fully autonomous vehicle, up from 30% two years ago."

 

[genna]

Just because 49% say "No", doesn't mean that 51% say "Yes".

 

[MauleSkinner]

Would you trust a computer or Susie-with-minivan-full-of-crying-kids more? Or what about the computer vs Joe-I-only-had-6-beers-and-a-vodka-tonic

I'll take the computer every time.

Neither Susie nor Joe are driving my car, and my hand is only close to the disconnect switch in my vehicle.

 

[Tantalum]

Did you read the article?

My complain was more about the way the headline is written to get an opinion out there for people who may not read the news story, just see it in their newsfeed while scrolling.. basically TLDR; self driving cars = bad. It's interesting to wonder why the media is going after self driving tech so actively.. Washington Post owned by Bezos makes sense, but the others? I wonder

People are also being asked to give an opinion on something they have very little actual knowledge about. That Forbes article you linked interviewed 1,250 people from ages 12 and up.. why they are asking a 12 year old about anything driving related when their 4 years away from actually driving a car makes no sense to me (never mind bringing up autonomy, machine learning, etc.). Statistics can be dangerous because since it's math people take them as facts, but there are so many variables within any statistics sample that it's at best suggestive and at worst misleading. Most people don't actually realize just how many highway fatalities there are in a year, but they hear that computers may take over and the automatic response is one of fear; "My Siri doesn't understand me and my email won't open.. how can I trust this to drive my car?" In 2016 highway fatalities in the US alone were 40,327.. or about 110 people per day. I can imagine if 110 people were dying each day in flying accidents in the US, etc., it'd get a lot more attention

I'm just not sure I understand why the hate for it. We're not there yet, and the human mind may never be replicated in its ability to rationalize and make qualitative judgments.. but for the majority of driving types computers will be safer. How many self driving trains have crashed in Japan, or self driving trams and monorails derailed or crashed? Compare that to human driven trains and the human factor? It's nuts

I remember back in the late 90s when Airliners.net was new, there were many active discussions on there about Airbus and its FBW logic (which isn't even intelligent, just gives envelope protection through hard coded limits).. but with them all over the sky how many accidents has been attributed to the FBW crashing the plane? We had the one at the air show with the slow spool up time.. okay.. and then you could try to make the case that the Air France flight may have survived.. but that comes back more to a training culture that didn't include hand flying the plane with degraded avionics.. seems like there was no pitch and power type training there

 

[Tantalum]

Neither Susie nor Joe are driving my car

Yeah but they're driving the car right next to yours. I mean, even basic things like what Volvo and other cars have to slam the brakes for you, how many rear endings has that saved?



Anyway... back to work. I've ruffled enough feathers here. Cheers

 

[MauleSkinner]

Yeah but they're driving the car right next to yours. I mean, even basic things like what Volvo and other cars have to slam the brakes for you, how many rear endings has that saved?



Anyway... back to work. I've ruffled enough feathers here. Cheers

And I don’t trust their autopilots any more than I trust mine, so my hand is still next to the switch.

 

[genna]

My complain was more about the way the headline is written to get an opinion out there for people who may not read the news story, just see it in their newsfeed while scrolling.. basically TLDR; self driving cars = bad. It's interesting to wonder why the media is going after self driving tech so actively.. Washington Post owned by Bezos makes sense, but the others? I wonder

People are also being asked to give an opinion on something they have very little actual knowledge about. That Forbes article you linked interviewed 1,250 people from ages 12 and up.. why they are asking a 12 year old about anything driving related when their 4 years away from actually driving a car makes no sense to me (never mind bringing up autonomy, machine learning, etc.). Statistics can be dangerous because since it's math people take them as facts, but there are so many variables within any statistics sample that it's at best suggestive and at worst misleading. Most people don't actually realize just how many highway fatalities there are in a year, but they hear that computers may take over and the automatic response is one of fear; "My Siri doesn't understand me and my email won't open.. how can I trust this to drive my car?" In 2016 highway fatalities in the US alone were 40,327.. or about 110 people per day. I can imagine if 110 people were dying each day in flying accidents in the US, etc., it'd get a lot more attention

I'm just not sure I understand why the hate for it. We're not there yet, and the human mind may never be replicated in its ability to rationalize and make qualitative judgments.. but for the majority of driving types computers will be safer. How many self driving trains have crashed in Japan, or self driving trams and monorails derailed or crashed? Compare that to human driven trains and the human factor? It's nuts

I remember back in the late 90s when Airliners.net was new, there were many active discussions on there about Airbus and its FBW logic (which isn't even intelligent, just gives envelope protection through hard coded limits).. but with them all over the sky how many accidents has been attributed to the FBW crashing the plane? We had the one at the air show with the slow spool up time.. okay.. and then you could try to make the case that the Air France flight may have survived.. but that comes back more to a training culture that didn't include hand flying the plane with degraded avionics.. seems like there was no pitch and power type training there

I don't see the media going after autonomous vehicles yet any more than just "if it bleeds it leads" kind of deal. What I do see from this study is that more people are aware about AV technology and as they become more aware, more people seem to dislike it for various reasons. I don't really care. I stand by my assertion that we will not see full Level 5 commercially available in my lifetime(30 some years I hope).

As far as airplanes. It takes a lot more effort to crash an aircraft vs car(weather and mechanical issues excluding). It also takes a lot more time, you have many sets of eyes to watch over you.

 

[jsstevens]

It doesn't make sense to own an autonomous car. You'd rent based on need. You'd pull up uber and click and button and the closest car in your chosen class will pull up to your front door.

I've heard this from multiple sources. I don't know how you use your car, but in my family (I'm sort of the exception, but only sort of) the car is a storage unit with all the stuff that I might need at my various destinations as well as the stuff I need for stop B, C & D on my route. That' doesn't work with the appliance model because you need to clean all your stuff out each time.

 

[jsstevens]

There is a significant physiological barrier for some of this. I believe that a fully autonomous road/vehicle system will be safer than human drivers. That said, deaths will not drop to 0 because the autonomy will not be that good. Humans are much more comfortable with the idea that they control their own fate (even if they actually do it poorly-we're not good a risk numbers, nor self assessment) than a machine malfunctioned and killed me. I suspect the next generation will be more accepting.

 

[Salty]

I've heard this from multiple sources. I don't know how you use your car, but in my family (I'm sort of the exception, but only sort of) the car is a storage unit with all the stuff that I might need at my various destinations as well as the stuff I need for stop B, C & D on my route. That' doesn't work with the appliance model because you need to clean all your stuff out each time.

You're stuck in the old paradigm. autonomous cars are going to disrupt how you are used to traveling. Of that there is no doubt. It will be orders of magnitude cheaper to "uber" even if you "drive" a lot. Only the uber rich would be able to afford to own the vehicle, and they aren't going to want to drive next to a bunch of robots.

No more garages, no more oil changes, no more mechanical issues, no more AAA..... It has it's upside.

Don't get me wrong. I'm with you. But there's no fighting it, it will happen eventually.

 

[steingar]

Its happening already. Most new cars come with some sort of autopilot features, perhaps a device to keep you from backing into something, or another to keep you in your lane or avoid front end collisions. They're here. Fully autonomous will take longer, but it will happen.

 

[asicer]

I think you need to read the article, the important tidbit is the fact that this number went from 30% to 49% in 2 years. And the number of people who think self-driving cars would be safer has dropped from 45% to 30%

The title -- which i took from the article -- doesn't really tell the story.

And it looks like most of the people polled have never come in contact with a self driving car. I'll bet that sentiment shifts again sometime in the future.

Notice that the article states most of those against are old fogeys. Some of them will age out shifting the poll again.

 

[Shepherd]

Nearly half of Americans don't want a self-driving car.
The other half has no idea what you are talking about.

 

[MooneyDriver78]

Once we get to the point it’s actually autonomous, then..
Car drives itself to dealer to be serviced. Ditto for car washes.
Car drives itself to grocery store, picks up groceries you ordered online. Ditto for liquor store.
Car stops at entrance on a rainy day, finds its own parking space.
Becomes perfectly legal to be intoxicated, since car is driving.
Car uses infrared,night vision to see what the human eye cannot.

 

[cowman]

My opinion is I'll wait for the technology to be out in the wild for a few years so they can get the major bugs worked out, then I'll see where there are and consider buying one. I'm also fairly dubious about how well they will be able to handle all the rural backroads that I frequently travel on.

Then too it will all depend on the implementation. I've tried out some of the driver assist stuff on some models and found it to be nice, others I've found it to be from useless to annoying.

 

[wsuffa]

Not exactly. The trend is going the other way.

From the article:

Forty-nine percent of respondents said they would never own a fully-autonomous car, known in the industry as a Level 5 vehicle. Two years ago, 30 percent said they would never buy one.

Meanwhile, a majority of people (63 percent) believed in 2016 that roadways would be safer if all vehicles were fully autonomous. That number has dropped to 45 percent.

Acceptance is strongest among millennials, 61 percent of whom wouldn’t rule out buying a Level 5 autonomous vehicle. A whopping 71 percent of Baby Boomers said they wouldn’t buy one, more than any other generation.​

​

Just like government-run healthcare. Or social security. Or....

 

[jsstevens]

You're stuck in the old paradigm. autonomous cars are going to disrupt how you are used to traveling. Of that there is no doubt. It will be orders of magnitude cheaper to "uber" even if you "drive" a lot. Only the uber rich would be able to afford to own the vehicle, and they aren't going to want to drive next to a bunch of robots.

No more garages, no more oil changes, no more mechanical issues, no more AAA..... It has it's upside.

Don't get me wrong. I'm with you. But there's no fighting it, it will happen eventually.

But you didn’t answe my question. I use Uber. I get that. When I’m at home I often set out on multistop trips (drug store, home store, nuserey, groceries, etc.). In this new paradigm what do I do with my stuff while stopped at the next place? Carry it because I’ve dismissed the car? Keep the car for multiple hours to store my stuff?

 

[Salty]

But you didn’t answe my question. I use Uber. I get that. When I’m at home I often set out on multistop trips (drug store, home store, nuserey, groceries, etc.). In this new paradigm what do I do with my stuff while stopped at the next place? Carry it because I’ve dismissed the car? Keep the car for multiple hours to store my stuff?

People in big cities have been living without cars for decades and they’ve managed to figure out how to cope with those issues. I think you’ll figure it out somehow.

 

[genna]

But you didn’t answe my question. I use Uber. I get that. When I’m at home I often set out on multistop trips (drug store, home store, nuserey, groceries, etc.). In this new paradigm what do I do with my stuff while stopped at the next place? Carry it because I’ve dismissed the car? Keep the car for multiple hours to store my stuff?

What Salty probably meant is not Uber, but Zipcar. Or more accurately a combination of some sorts. Yes. You rent car by hour when needed.

 

[Everskyward]

If you drove in kalifornia with all the traffic problems and stupid drivers you would welcome autonomous cars.
I'm all for it, BUT there must also be a manual mode where you can turn off all the NANNY components.

I saw an autonomous car being tested this morning, in Kalifonia. I'm not sure if it was autonomous mode, but it seemed to have problems deciding when pedestrians were going to enter the crosswalk. It was way more conservative than live drivers I've seen. The problem is that I don't think autonomous cars can tell which way people are facing, so they don't know which street the pedestrians are going to cross; in front of the car or parallel to it.

 

[OkieFlyer]

I refuse to even buy a car that automatically locks my doors when I put it in drive.

I hear that. I still haven't gotten over the fact that cars ding at me if I don't put on my seatbelt. Who the heck do these automobiles think they are, telling me what to do? No way I'm going to have one that wants to drive too. Back off cars, that's my domain!

Frankly, I'm absolutely floored that anywhere near half are in favor of them.

Put me in the millennials who prefer dumb cars camp.

 

[1RTK1]

I saw an autonomous car being tested this morning, in Kalifonia. I'm not sure if it was autonomous mode, but it seemed to have problems deciding when pedestrians were going to enter the crosswalk. It was way more conservative than live drivers I've seen. The problem is that I don't think autonomous cars can tell which way people are facing, so they don't know which street the pedestrians are going to cross; in front of the car or parallel to it.

At the old castle air force base here in komnifornia google or some one has a course set up behind multiple fences where these autonomous vehicle run around all day.
They have set up towns, stop lights, railroad crossings etc. I go over there now and again to do touch and gos to watch them. I saw one doing some cross country driving once. LOL

 

[Zeldman]

I would love to have a fully self driving car.

Then maybe I would die like my grandfather.... peacefully in his sleep.

Not screaming in terror like his passengers.....

 

[overdrive148]

 

[Everskyward]

At the old castle air force base here in komnifornia google or some one has a course set up behind multiple fences where these autonomous vehicle run around all day.
They have set up towns, stop lights, railroad crossings etc. I go over there now and again to do touch and gos to watch them. I saw one doing some cross country driving once. LOL

No matter how they have it set up on a driving range, it will take a lot of work for one to perform adequately in a city. Way too many variables and visual cues that might be misinterpreted. I have seen them out test driving in my neighborhood a couple times now. This is not even that busy an area.

 

[JOhnH]

.

I saw an autonomous car being tested this morning, in Kalifonia. I'm not sure if it was autonomous mode, but it seemed to have problems deciding when pedestrians were going to enter the crosswalk. It was way more conservative than live drivers I've seen. The problem is that I don't think autonomous cars can tell which way people are facing, so they don't know which street the pedestrians are going to cross; in front of the car or parallel to it.

I often have trouble figuring out what pedestrians are going to do. Many times I need to turn right at an intersection and there will be a pedestrian facing the cross street that I will be turning on to, but they are face down into their smart phone and acting like they are about to cross... or not. Yesterday a guy was standing there and after the light turned I hesitantly started to go, then he stepped forward and I stopped and he stopped and I went again and he went again, then when we got close he looked up from his phone and gave me the finger. I would have yelled at him but he had his ear buds in and probably wouldn't have heard me anyway.

 

[JOhnH]

I thoroughly understand people that like driving and don't want to give it up to a machine.

What I don't understand are people that think it won't/can't work in our lifetime. How long was it between Kitty Hawk and the first landing on a moving ship? (14 years).

And I don't understand people that think AVs, once generally available, won't be safer that human beings. I was witness to a four car pile up three blocks from my house on Wednesday, involving a truck full of muriatic acid. The major road was shut down for hours for miles because some idiot ran a red light.

 

[deonb]

The opinion is it'll only work when we ban human driven cars

You also have to ban humans walking on the road. And dogs. And deer. And moose, elk and bears. And big birds. And rockslides. And deep snow accumulations. And black ice. And broken down vehicles. And furniture that fell off the back of a truck. And the occasional 172 doing an emergency landing on the highway.

By the time you go through the list of less things that you have no control over and would anyway need to teach the computer about, you've solved "humans driving a car" many times over.

 

[jsstevens]

You also have to ban humans walking on the road. And dogs. And deer. And moose, elk and bears. And big birds. And rockslides. And deep snow accumulations. And black ice. And broken down vehicles. And furniture that fell off the back of a truck. And the occasional 172 doing an emergency landing on the highway.

By the time you go through the list of less things that you have no control over and would anyway need to teach the computer about, you've solved "humans driving a car" many times over.

Well, you have to ban the human landing the 172 also...

Actually most of the static stuff is not to hard. (I realize there are cases where current cars haven't done to well.) Deer, etc. humans don't do to well with either.

All that said, I don't think it's as easy as most of the techies make out. (And I am one, albeit one with gray hair.)

At some point it will be about economics and that's game over. As was pointed out in the verbal discussion, over the road trucks would be an excellent case. Trucks could move 24 hours a day and the computer won't fall asleep at the wheel. They might need extra autonomous only lanes for a while, but with trucks it's only cargo. I suspect similar things will happen with commercial aircraft: cargo will go autonomous first.

John