I’m a 38 year old accountant but I loved Top Gun as a kid, maybe the Navy will let me fly the F/A-18?
This is the typical reaction from the layperson, and its not unreasonable, but it feeds off misinformation on the part of the DoD.
The USAF is not having trouble filling cockpits, especially fighter cockpits that represent a tiny minority of its total manned flying jobs mind you (but represent the bulk of its recruiting optics, predictably). The USAF is having trouble filling the metric @ss ton of make work staff jobs they have coded for 11Fxnx (fighter pilot) or 11Xxnx (all pilots). That's why they want these retired or older separated folks. It ain't to put them back in the cockpit to go rage. And most of the audience that qualifies for said recall, knows this already.
The USAF is having some problems retaining middle management and core operational experience at the senior Capt/iron major level, and that one is almost exclusively running for the airline door. No amount of UPT pilot surge (which we are doing btw) is gonna fix that. We've just created another demographic bathtub that will be manifested in 10 years, since the AF won't learn its lessons and not look at everything from the myopic glasses of fenced "commissioned year groups". It's been a painful and entertaining train wreck to be part of in the last 5 years for sure.
I'm sure there's more reasons. Many I knew when I was in just wanted to fly and not have to do the staff job type of stuff to get promoted.
Nah, you pretty much hit it. It's the staff jobs they're running away from. Also the basing choices and lack of desirable follow-on choices. The deployments are an issue because they're the make-work variety. A politically incorrect thing to say for most of us still in, but anyone who is in the heat of things knows the level of REMF dynamics in our so-called deployments is atrocious and a big reason why guys punch. If deployments were not for mil-ind complex supporting reasons and promotion container fodder, and actually had pilots performing their primary duty when deployed, this so-called shortage wouldn't exist.
At any rate, there's no shortage of people getting to fly airplanes. Matter of fact, there's a surplus of pilots wanting to who don't get to, which is why the exodus accelerates. It seems counter-intuitive to the layperson, but for the mil crowd it makes perfect sense.
Yeah, that's really the issue. It hasn't changed. The thing is, now you're going to have O-5s coming back to do the jobs of O-3s and O-4s. Not a bad deal in my opinion, but the the younger guys may continue to get screwed. We'll see how it plays out.
I guess we'll see. Based on the low take rate before this cap got lifted, and the continued lack of buy-in on my circle in the USAF, I don't think the AF has any intention of making a bunch of O-5 schedulers and 30-60-90 kings. This is the staff gigs. What they would be likely to do would be relieve the captains to get back on the saddle as a way of retaining that core demographic. It's the 13 year guy they're having trouble with, not the 17 year guy filling a staff gig, though a few of the latter are committing career seppuku and punching to the airlines within reach of an active duty retirement, mainly due to a really nasty PCS or 365 inside their 7-day-opt window. If they were to do all of this to help out the guy with a check already and continue to screw the guy they're trying to retain into 17 years, then it would be self-defeating imo, which is probably why they'll do it LOL. Like you said, I guess we will see.