Ed Haywood
En-Route
Yep. In the Watsonville case, the base traffic reported going around, and in the process started across final, so it appears that he was planning to offset to the right. The final traffic was in a steep right bank at the moment of collision, so he may also have been initiating a go-around offsetting to the right.
From the NTSB preliminary report:
The photo shows the problem. The 152 turned his back to a known traffic conflict, taking away his ability to see and avoid. He also possibly confused the twin as to his intentions, by appearing as if he were landing.
Had the 152 pilot stayed on base, climbed, and repeatedly announced until he got a response, the twin would not have had to bank sharply to avoid him. He could have remained on final with wings level and adjusted his flight path to go over or under the 152.
Honestly this is not as hard as everyone is making it. I've had similar scenarios play out numerous times. NORDO shows up on base or final unexpected. If the NORDO acts like you expect him to act, by staying on defined pattern legs, they are easy to avoid. When people start doing steep turns and inventing new mini-patterns known only to them, that is when everything goes haywire.