Is General Aviation Dying in the USA?

[John Baker]

Aviation has always been limited to those who have disposable income of some sort, or the willingness to live at a lower standard in order to fly. In general, money has always been an issue in one way or another, that has not changed. What has changed is the number of people who have the disposable income or the willingness to spend it on frivolities, that has diminished.

My last annual cost over four thousand dollars, on a Warrior??? There was a time, not all that long ago, when you could purchase a whole new airplane for less.

Flying is definitely expensive, but then it always (proportionally) has been.

Economic downturns have always had an impact on GA.

What has also changed, over the years, is the regulations and the liabilities associated with airplane operations and ownership. Every year those seem to increase, and, I am sure, will continue to do so. I often felt as I was struggling toward my license, that I was not learning to be a pilot, but more learning to be a bureaucrat.

Eventually, the sheer weight of government will be what does GA in. Few people are willing to accept the active participation with government officials and regulations that is required of pilots. The impact of this micro managing of aviation is already apparent in most European countries. Right now, compared to them, we have it good.

However, as our government continues to grow, aviation will continue to lose its appeal. Having millions of people hunting for someone, or thing, to govern and tax, GA becomes an easy prey for many of them.

John

 

[Sac Arrow]

Overregulation is definitely a factor in the decline of GA. But the cost of fuel is what is going to kill it. Sadly, I'm afraid it will be sooner rather than later. As in, within the next 5 years. There will still be a few people with net worth in >=9 figures who will dabble in it, but most of us will be struggling just to make ends meet.

In 5 years you will not need to fly anywhere to buy a $100 hamburger.

I unfortunately have to agree with this. Fuel costs are now beginning to alter the economic decision to fly for business, at least for me. I'll subsidize business travel by GA to a point, but only to a point.

 

[Tarheel Pilot]

Overregulation is definitely a factor in the decline of GA. But the cost of fuel is what is going to kill it. Sadly, I'm afraid it will be sooner rather than later. As in, within the next 5 years. There will still be a few people with net worth in >=9 figures who will dabble in it, but most of us will be struggling just to make ends meet.

In 5 years you will not need to fly anywhere to buy a $100 hamburger.

The 100LL prices are only going to go up, the only way to bring down fuel cost is to invest in an alternative fuel source, or in mogas that doesn't have ethanol. There's only one gas station in my town that has mogas without ethanol. I don't know how much longer they're going to be around since everyone and their grandma is getting on the ethanol train.

 

[steingar]

Hopefully someone important will figure out what a con job we're getting with ethanol.

 

[wabower]

Conjecture. All they knew when they stopped spin training was that some people were being killed in training. They have no idea of the ongoing results. Stall-spins remain as the biggest killer.

More people got killed by spin training(solo and dual) than by spins accidentally.

 

[steingar]

Conjecture. All they knew when they stopped spin training was that some people were being killed in training. They have no idea of the ongoing results. Stall-spins remain as the biggest killer.

All the spin training in the world won't save you from an inadvertant stall/spin in the landing pattern. Stall awareness might help you avoid the situation in the first place.

 

[wabower]

There's no question it can be done. There's also no question that doing it on a predictable schedule, or with any variations in forecast, or with a better chance of eliminating get-home-itis mistakes are greatly enhanced by IR ratings and capabilities. If you think differently, ask somebody who's been stuck in a motel the southeast for a week waiting for weather to clear.

Agreed. We flew VFR from Michigan to the Bahamas. I was told by many older, more experienced pilots (usually instrument rated) that it wasn't possible. I was also told that flying over water is an IFR situation. The only person that really encouraged it was the guy that did my flight examination.

 

[Tarheel Pilot]

Hopefully someone important will figure out what a con job we're getting with ethanol.

Agreed, ethanol is NOT the most efficient form of bio-fuel, in fact, in relations of other bio-fuels it is one of the most least efficient. Which is why I am a big supporter of Algae Bio-Fuel.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algae_fuel

A much better biofuel than Ethanol.

 

[Ted]

And the fact that it is for you implies the same.

Correct, but your statement was absolute, and it is incorrect as worded.

 

[dmccormack]

Conjecture. All they knew when they stopped spin training was that some people were being killed in training. They have no idea of the ongoing results. Stall-spins remain as the biggest killer.

CFI training already includes spins, and all too often it's three and done.

I did it over two sessions, based on a better premise: "Here's how students will try to kill you, and here's how to recover."

 

[steingar]

Apples and oranges. Driving is useful.

Correct, but your statement was absolute, and it is incorrect as worded.

I think you would be in the minority of people who think driving isn't useful.

 

[dmccormack]

I think you would be in the minority of people who think driving isn't useful.

Compared to what?

That's the real question.

 

[Ted]

I think you would be in the minority of people who think driving isn't useful.

...of which a logical person would conclude you are implying flying is not useful. Not apples and oranges. Like driving, flying is useful to a subset of the population.

The difference is driving is useful to a larger subset than flying.

 

[kevin7500]

There's no question it can be done. There's also no question that doing it on a predictable schedule, or with any variations in forecast, or with a better chance of eliminating get-home-itis mistakes are greatly enhanced by IR ratings and capabilities. If you think differently, ask somebody who's been stuck in a motel the southeast for a week waiting for weather to clear.

I have never argued that an IR increases flexibility. I simply don't think you have to be limited to the pattern if you don't have the rating.

As for being stuck in the southeast, depending on temperature your IR won't do you any good if your not FIKI approved. But everybody knows that a good FIKI plane needs two engines. Oh, turbines are way more reliable so you shouldn't fly if it is piston powered.

 

[wabower]

Probably depends on whether you live in NYC or Cody, WY.

I think you would be in the minority of people who think driving isn't useful.

 

[wabower]

Congrats. I don't think you left any straws ungrasped.

I have never argued that an IR increases flexibility. I simply don't think you have to be limited to the pattern if you don't have the rating.

As for being stuck in the southeast, depending on temperature your IR won't do you any good if your not FIKI approved. But everybody knows that a good FIKI plane needs two engines. Oh, turbines are way more reliable so you shouldn't fly if it is piston powered.

 

[Ted]

I have never argued that an IR increases flexibility. I simply don't think you have to be limited to the pattern if you don't have the rating.

I agree, but a man's gotta know his limitations. VFR means you have more limitations. That seemed to be Wayne's point to me.

As for being stuck in the southeast, depending on temperature your IR won't do you any good if your not FIKI approved.

That is highly, highly variable.

But everybody knows that a good plane needs two engines.

FTFY

More accurately, there are very few FIKI piston singles out there. The 210 and Malibu come to mind as used aircraft, and of course new you have a few more options such as the SR22. Otherwise, the single vs. twin debade in ice isn't a lot different than single vs. twin anywhere else.

Oh, turbines are way more reliable so you shouldn't fly if it is piston powered.

That's why I carry a spare.

Actually, it more has to do with the fact that I'd rather have a higher probability of failure with a backup plan than a lower probability of failure (Meridian/TBM/Pilatus) without a backup plan ("Hmm. That PT-6 quit. Now what?").

 

[snoopyloopy]

The 100LL prices are only going to go up, the only way to bring down fuel cost is to invest in an alternative fuel source, or in mogas that doesn't have ethanol. There's only one gas station in my town that has mogas without ethanol. I don't know how much longer they're going to be around since everyone and their grandma is getting on the ethanol train.

there's always jet-a. the diesel cycle is far more efficient than otto cycle and 100ll is a specialty fuel that isn't as readily available worldwide as jet-a. the exploding economies of china and india may very well soon have a boom in ga due to the middle class population that number more than the entire us population. that will definitely put more upward pressure on 100ll prices unless they are able to use something else that is more plentiful.
i hear the easa has approved certification for the sma-305 diesel engine and faa cert is expected for later this year. if that turns out true, then more manufacturers can start offering it as oem equipment. thielert is also offering a conversion, but the cost is geneally prohibitive (at least until 100ll prices go even higher).

 

[shenanigans]

CFI training already includes spins, and all too often it's three and done.

That's probably what would happen if spin training was required for private.

I always wondered about CFI spin training when I hear people say spin training killed more than it saved. If you believe the FAA stats, they issue about 1 CFI cert for each 5 or 6 private ratings. If spin training was so dangerous, wouldn't there be a bunch of CFI candidates dieing doing their spin training?

If i believed those numbers, then there are one million recently issued private pilot certs in the last ten years. Thats pretty hard to believe. Can anyone explain these numbers? Foreign Training in US?

The numbers posted on the first page are mislabeled. The data labeled 'private' is actually the TOTAL number of certificates, which also includes the student certificates. Approximately half of the non-student ratings are airplane private.

 

[NoHeat]

Nice data, but it doesn't distinguish pilots who get certificates because they wish to fly GA and nothing else from those who intend to become airline pilots. Do the latter might dominate, especially in the younger age groups?

When I look through the other pages of FAA data, it's clear that an unusually large number of FAA exams are taken in two states: Florida and Arizona.
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/av..._Airmen Knowlege Tests by Region and FSDO.pdf
I assume that's because of pilot mills that cater to career-oriented pilots and not to those who wish to fly GA and nothing else.

According to the FAA, pilot certificates issued
Student
2009 54,876
2008 61,194
2007 66,953
2006 61,448
2005 53,576
2004 58,362
2003 55,446
2002 65,421
2001 61,839
2000 58,042
Private
2009 93,861
2008 100,555
2007 108,019
2006 99,792
2005 91,446
2004 99,416
2003 98,643
2002 113,583
2001 108,000
2000 106,517
Instrument rating
2009 25,337

 

[pilot_dude]

Whether we like it or not, GA is not a need, but rather a want. There really isn't anything that cannot be accomplished if GA went the way of the dodo bird.

 

[Ted]

Whether we like it or not, GA is not a need, but rather a want. There really isn't anything that cannot be accomplished if GA went the way of the dodo bird.

That is true for a number of the personal users (but not all...), however for the business users it is a tremendous enabler.

 

[pilot_dude]

That is true for a number of the personal users (but not all...), however for the business users it is a tremendous enabler.

I concur, it can be a great enabler but it is not a need as other modes of transportation can be substituted (price, time, convenience, etc not taken into account).

 

[SkyHog]

That is true for a number of the personal users (but not all...), however for the business users it is a tremendous enabler.

Not to mention relocating a large number of dogs quickly...

 

[Ted]

I concur, it can be a great enabler but it is not a need as other modes of transportation can be substituted (price, time, convenience, etc not taken into account).

Time and price are the big factors, and it is a need if something simply doesn't happen at all as a result of not having the ability to do it.

Technically, we don't need cars, airplanes, or horses. Walking will get all that accomplished. However, I think most of us wouldn't be able to get much done if that were the case.

Not to mention relocating a large number of dogs quickly...

A good example of the above point... Most of the dogs we move would otherwise be dead.

 

[Bob Noel]

Whether we like it or not, GA is not a need, but rather a want. There really isn't anything that cannot be accomplished if GA went the way of the dodo bird.

That depends on the part of the country you are trying to get to.

 

[Jim Logajan]

do you believe that general aviation in the United States is dying?

No.

.....

 

[weilke]

Do we really think it's one maneuver vs. the other that keeps people from finishing flight training and not the high cost ?

What I see is that the guys in their early 20s who would want to fly can't afford it and the folks who can aford it already own a boat to take care of their discretionary income.

 

[Bob Noel]

I was 14 when a friend of my father took me flying. I was hooked. I didn't have the time/money to do it until I was 28. There was an aeroclub at my company which provided a ground school and I was fortunate to have a friend who was a CFI.

Of the people I know who expressed any interest in flying, not one said any particular FBO or airport stopped them. It's pretty much the time required and the cost of training that stops them.

 

[Jay Honeck]

We flew into San Marcos, TX, yesterday, and were stunned to find 100LL selling for $6.30 per gallon.

At that price, filling my Pathfinder costs over $500.00, marking the end of my participation in general aviation.

Luckily, avgas is "only" $4.50 per gallon at my home field, but the future looks bleak, indeed. I personally know three pilots who have stopped flying during this recent fuel price run-up, and I suspect there are thousands more just like them, if the traffic in the patterns is any indication.

 

[Jim_R]

According to the FAA, pilot certificates issued
Student
<annual #s in the 50-60K range>
Private
<annual #s in the 90-100K range>

I don't understand these numbers. How can the FAA issue more private certificates than student certificates year after year?

 

[pilot_dude]

I don't understand these numbers. How can the FAA issue more private certificates than student certificates year after year?

This is purely conjecture but I suspect it is due to those not receiving their certificate the the same calendar year in which they began training.

 

[Tarheel Pilot]

According to the FAA, pilot certificates issued
Student
2009 54,876
2008 61,194
2007 66,953
2006 61,448
2005 53,576
2004 58,362
2003 55,446
2002 65,421
2001 61,839
2000 58,042
Private
2009 93,861
2008 100,555
2007 108,019
2006 99,792
2005 91,446
2004 99,416
2003 98,643
2002 113,583
2001 108,000
2000 106,517
Instrument rating
2009 25,337

I wonder what the numbers are for Sport Pilots.

 

[cherokeeflyboy]

I wonder what the numbers are for Sport Pilots.

2009 3,248
2008 2,623
2007 2,031
2006 939
2005 134
2004 N/A

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/2009/

 

[ajstoner21]

What is general aviation?

General aviation (GA) is all civilian flying except scheduled passenger airlines. It’s just that simple—and complex.

http://www.aopa.org/letsgoflying/ready/steps/whatis.html

General Aviation is most definitely not dying.

 

[Tarheel Pilot]

2009 3,248
2008 2,623
2007 2,031
2006 939
2005 134
2004 N/A

http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/2009/

Well it's nice to see SP growing.

 

[hindsight2020]

From where I sit, cost is what keeps people out. For those who cherish a small GA crowd, this discriminator is not a problem, rather something they prob privately cherish. For the middle class, yep you're out the gate.

At the private user level it comes down to utilization rate, practicality of transportation and cost. The costs are out of whack. 4K annual on a 100knot trainer? Even if I had the discretionary income to do that, I ain't sinking that for the privilege to get nowhere at 100 knots. And I'm knee deep in the flying thing professionally mind you! (military). Which is why I sold my 150 early this year, I just couldn't stomach the outrageous cost/utility ratio. Add the fact the fleet is old as frick, and it just kills the appeal. I still personally don't get the whole avionics arms race.

All my peers say eff it, and go hunting and boating, and more people tag along with them too. The only times anybody has asked me to partake in flying since I began flying myself, has either come down to it's too slow, not enough space to carry anything of consequence, not enough seats/payload, to rent something that does meet the utility criteria outright kills the economy of driving or flying commercially. Generally there was always a utility deficit that simply made people tell me 'eh, never mind'. The only masochists that wanted to make the bumpy under 10K trip in the 100kt 'affordable' flying machine were pilots already.

Yeah regulations and rules, procedures, numbers, pitch and power settings, this is all endemic to organized flight, but it's the cost that's doing GA in. Not the FBO or even the size of government. Now, I could see how true tort reform and de-regulation could allow more competitive pricing into the field and allow us working stiffs to reinvigorate the GA pool that's currently overwhelmingly a dying baby boomer cadre that got in when the going was still affordable to the middle class (and when airplanes were still under 25 years old median age).

That's another thing, the age of the aircraft make it unappealing. I shouldn't have to be an A&P-IA in order to be a pilot, from a cost mitigation perspective. Pilots should be able to afford flying turn key. Old airplanes are horrible at that. Even the best peaches are finicky. Every time I hear some dude do a prebuy on one of these contraptions to turn around take in the shorts 6 months later with a 5000 annual because "the thing is just damn old" I just shake my head. Magnetos? in 2011. Gimme a break.

My guess is that airplanes will remain in prohibitive range until enough owners die/medically dq and there's no consumer base that wants these relics. Then it would be a true niche and GA will officially be a fringe activity. I'll prob dabble in experimental ownership and risk my life curbing some costs and not telling the man, but otherwise for my generation (Y and beyond), the dream is dead.

P.S. I agree with the poster that talked about the pilot community. I find a lot of pilots just outright abrasive. It's not a really laid back bunch. It's an old demographic too in aggregate, which is getting crankier by the decade.

Yeah I think GA is about dead in the US. Im using the benchmark that GA is already dead in the UK/Europe. If we can't agree on the latter then we'll never agree the US GA could be in trouble.

 

[Tarheel Pilot]

Yeah I think GA is about dead in the US. Im using the benchmark that GA is already dead in the UK/Europe. If we can't agree on the latter then we'll never agree the US GA could be in trouble.

It seems in the UK/Europe, that light aircraft and ultralights are replacing certified aircraft like Piper, Cessna, Cirrus, etc. maybe that's where the USA is headed as well?

 

[NoHeat]

I don't understand these numbers. How can the FAA issue more private certificates than student certificates year after year?

They do look odd.
Elsewhere at faa.gov, there's a download that shows far fewer certificates issued than is listed in that post upthread. Here's
what I found (sorry for the formatting):

new issuances of student pilot certificates (estimated numbers, it says):
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
54,876 61,194 66,953 61,448 53,576 59,202 58,842 65,421 61,897 58,042

new issuances of private pilot certificates:
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
19,893 19,052 20,299 20,217 20,889 23,031 23,866 28,659 25,372 27,223


Here's where I found it:
http://www.faa.gov/data_research/aviation_data_statistics/civil_airmen_statistics/2009/

 

[Jay Honeck]

I've been a pilot since the mid-90s. I was forced to wait till I was 35 to fulfill the dream, and have regretted wasting those first few decades ever since. Since 2002 I have made my living (somewhat indirectly) off of general aviation, by catering to the demographic we are discussing -- GA Pilots.

In that time I've made connections in GA all over the country, have observed a lot, and learned a few things along the way. Here are a few nuggets I have gleaned:

1. A Generational Shift.
GA in the early 90s was still populated and controlled by the World War II generation. They were getting long in the tooth, and some had already quit flying, but they owned a lot of airplanes and FBOs. Things were still going forward based on the momentum they had established.

Those guys were a different breed. They were the Great Depression generation that had grown up and done well, but never lost the joy and wonder that (a) they had lived through the war, and (b) they were lucky enough to be able to fly. They truly appreciated the freedom that GA allowed them, and looked askance at a lot of the ironclad rules and regulations that we kowtow to today.

These guys worked incredibly hard in aviation, provided amazing customer service (does anyone else remember flipping up a flap on their hangar door when they needed fuel, and finding their plane fully fueled next time they were at the airport?), and were generous to a fault.

Those guys are mostly gone, now. I still see a few of them occasionally, but they are feeble and few still fly. Their FBOs are either in new hands, or have closed, and their airplanes are either owned by younger guys, or have long since been scrapped.

2. The Next Generation Fumbled the Ball
The next generation -- Baby Boomers -- picked up the mantle, but have not carried it as far, or as well. This generation -- my generation -- a much more privileged, self-serving lot, bought the old planes and FBOs, but were unable to make a go of it, despite there being far more of us than there were of the previous generation. We can argue long and hard about why this is, but the fact is that the old system didn't work in new hands.

One by one, the FBOs across America have wound down, like old mantle clocks, with fewer and fewer aircraft and flights every day, until today most airports are unstaffed, with self-service gas and weekend only (if you're lucky) services.

I still find it shocking to land at airports that were thriving when I first learned to fly, only to find the FBO doors locked. No A&Ps, no more cute desk clerks -- sometimes not even a way to get into the bathroom. When you CAN get inside, the magazines are often years old, with the '60s era naugahyde furniture left in exactly the configuration the WWII guys placed them in. It's almost creepy, like going in your parents house after they have died.

3. Active Pilots versus Certificated Pilots.
There are far fewer pilots flying. There are plenty of us still on the books, but the number of pilots who actually get in their planes and fly somewhere other than the pattern is down -- way down -- from the early 2000s.

In the early to mid 2000s, there were times when we considered buying a second courtesy car for our airport motel in Iowa -- demand for it was THAT consistent. By the time we sold the place earlier this year, the courtesy van had not moved in months.

Here at our new place in Texas, we're seeing a consistent influx of pilots and the courtesy car is used several times a week, but that's partially because we're in a tourist destination and there are far more pilots in Texas than there were in Iowa. Despite this, the ramp at our airport is often devoid of any aircraft, and there is no FBO at all, simply because there is not enough demand to support one.

I personally know three pilots -- Baby Boomers, all -- who have hung up flying in the last year, simply due to the run up in fuel costs. When it costs over $500 to fill up a Spam Can, the bottom end of the aviation market is long gone.

My son, who proudly earned his ticket at age 17 in 2007, and flew our Ercoupe into Oshkosh that year, has been completely blown out of the rental market. He hasn't flown in a year.

So, is GA dying? Compared to yesterday or last month, nope. Compared to the early 90s, you bet. Compared to the 70s, GA barely exists in America.

I've done everything I can to expand GA, serving on boards, committees, as AOPA airport rep, building aviation exhibits at museums, flying Young Eagles -- if you can think of it, I've probably done it. Despite all this, GA has continued to wither before my eyes, much to my heartfelt sadness. I simply don't know what else I can personally do.

In the meantime, Mary and I will continue to fly as long as we can.