I'm stuck.

EdFred

EdFred

Taxi to Parking
Joined
Feb 25, 2005
Messages
30,651
Location
Michigan
Display Name
Display name:
White Chocolate
In my way:

OVC10-20 TOPS FL350+

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Help me find a hole!
Going east wont help as the crud is moving that way.

At I-75 and I-10 in NoFla
 
It is going to build throughout the day Ed. Try and go north as far as you can, land spend the night and let it pass, continue on tomorrow.
 
Looks to me like you are in fact stuck until that stuff all moves out to the east. About the only thing I have to help you is that Airnav has good links to hotels.
 
If I could get to Macon or Atlanta I've got ground transport and free lodging, but I cant even get that far safely.
 
Raining like h**l on the east side of Atlanta right now.
 
EdFred said:
If I could get to Macon or Atlanta I've got ground transport and free lodging, but I cant even get that far safely.
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On the ground is always safer.

It seems like there is always something coming through that area. I watch the WX along the Illinois/FL route a lot. I had been planning my flight down there for two years, but it kept getting canceled for other reasons and I rarely saw a time where there was not something going on. Often time it was t-storms going right through that area. But at least it never seemed like it kept going forever without a break.
 
Take the southern route - Merida, Monterrey, then up through the mid-west.:D

It'll take awhile but parts of it will be fun. Spend a night or two in Campeche. No other touristas will be there and the beaches west of town are pure white sand.
 
Tish Tosh
What a way to get out of work. :nono:
Looks clear to the south, maybe go see the relatives in Ft.Meyers ? Or is there more stuff coming? I'm glad I did'nt fly you down ,we would all be stuck.:rolleyes:
 
Well you could always go the LOONG way. Just head south across both poles :-)
 
what sort of range do you have? and I assume you do not have a 3/496 or anything else with onboard XM weather?
 
tonycondon said:
what sort of range do you have? and I assume you do not have a 3/496 or anything else with onboard XM weather?
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All I have is a stormscope on board, and who knows if that works very well. Range....60 gallon tanks, 13gph 155kts - of course that assumes I can get an altitude to get me the speed and burn.
 
EdFred said:
All I have is a stormscope on board, and who knows if that works very well.
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Sferics devices are good for avoiding bad weather, but not for picking through frontal lines like this. It should thin out some tomorrow as the front backs up north.
 
Egh, it's only 50-60 dB return. My lawn mower is louder than that. ;)

Looks like you're probably stuck, unless stuff calms down later. Best to stay on the ground. Although Scott's wrong - air is safer if people with guns trying to shoot you are on the ground. :)
 
hmmm you've got 40 kt tailwinds at 9000 ft. running up the atlantic coast, and from the area forecast and satellite picture, clear skies so you can watch those 30K tops moving. If I felt the need to make a run for it, I think I'd jet for somewhere around central NC initially and see if i could get in front of it, or find a nice wide broken up area in the line along the way. maybe RDU would be a good spot, isn't that where Tom Sisk is at?
 
Wash and wax the new plane. Then go get a beer.
 
Ed, you are stuck- don't push it.

Looking at the prog charts, you have a stalled frontal system to deal with, and it appears to be "committed" for several days.

Now.

I think your best strategy for getting home sooner than later, and safely, is to plan on flying west, along the coast, then north. As a practical matter, early-morning will usually serve you better, since (usually) the energy of the storms has not yet built up. You can fly along low and safe as long as you have a couple thousand feet of ceiling (no less), don't fly into a rainshaft, and are ready to turn and bail if you see something you don't like. Your StormScope will be helpful here. There are lots of airports along the way.

Try that through Georgia, etc., and you find hills and stuff that you'd rather not bump into.

---

Edit:

Tony may be right, I may be wrong.

The wax, drink and wait idea may be best.
 
Having dealt with this exact frontal pattern for decades, I agree with Spike -- if you must get out now, that is. Go west, south of the front and run around the west side if possible. However, stay over land because the air mass coming in off the water can be very unstable and can build in a hurry. If you can't stay over land and your eyeballs approve, then go ahead and head out over the water if you feel comfortable with that, but keep an eye peeled behind you and do not allow yourself to get trapped offshore without the option of a 180.

However, this is generally a very unstable boundary. I personally would sit tight without XM weather or onboard radar.
 
heading west offers 30 knot headwinds, and from the radar and satellite pictures, it appeared to me that getting pushed away from land (and airport) was a certainty. and i dont like the way that line seem to be building to the SW of New Orleans.

this is a fun excercise :) many options.
 
Ken Ibold said:
Having dealt with this exact frontal pattern for decades, I agree with Spike -- if you must get out now, that is. Go west, south of the front and run around the west side if possible. However, stay over land because the air mass coming in off the water can be very unstable and can build in a hurry. If you can't stay over land and your eyeballs approve, then go ahead and head out over the water if you feel comfortable with that, but keep an eye peeled behind you and do not allow yourself to get trapped offshore without the option of a 180.

However, this is generally a very unstable boundary. I personally would sit tight without XM weather or onboard radar.
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Ed,
In a new (to you) plane, sit tight. You don't want your inaugural flight to have a bunch of weather-related issues coming up on top of trying to get comfortable with an airplane you're not really familiar with. And I definitely wouldn't suggest taking it out over the water until you have more history with the engine and overall reliability.
 
smigaldi said:
It is going to build throughout the day Ed. Try and go north as far as you can, land spend the night and let it pass, continue on tomorrow.
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Be sure to put the plane in a hangar if you do that! I wouldn't try to penetrate that mess without on board radar (and I don't mean XM Wx) unless you can stay visual the whole ride. If you do try it, stay within approach airspace when navigating through the rain, they have much better Wx ability than Center which pretty much uses the same Nexrad you get on XM. And speaking of XM, perhaps you could find a 396 for rent somewhere along the way. At least that way you'd have an idea of what lies ahead.

FWIW, I once had to stay in Florida for a whole week waiting for that line to become passable. There are worse places to get stuck.
 
Ken Ibold said:
However, this is generally a very unstable boundary. I personally would sit tight without XM weather or onboard radar.
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tonycondon said:
heading west offers 30 knot headwinds, and from the radar and satellite pictures, it appeared to me that getting pushed away from land (and airport) was a certainty. and i dont like the way that line seem to be building to the SW of New Orleans.

this is a fun excercise :) many options.
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Going west will eat a lot of fuel and not really get him all the much closer to home. The nice thing about t-storms in that area is that even though there may be a stuck front, morning storms are just rain. So you may be able to get through a line of showers in the early am, but later in the day it grow to a line of t-storms. Tomorrow may be much better.
 
gprellwitz said:
Ed,
In a new (to you) plane, sit tight. You don't want your inaugural flight to have a bunch of weather-related issues coming up on top of trying to get comfortable with an airplane you're not really familiar with. And I definitely wouldn't suggest taking it out over the water until you have more history with the engine and overall reliability.
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I too was going to say head west along the southern panhandle, land and wait for the passage and head north but given Ken's very local advice I vote with Grant. Enjoy what Jax has to offer and bug out when it clears. Be Safe!!!!
 
Ed ,you need a vacation, no since in hurrying back, we can hold down the fort back here at the office.
Take no chances :nono:,I want to get checked out in that plane:blueplane:,and I want you to make it back safe.:D
 
el con said:
Ed ,you need a vacation, no since in hurrying back, we can hold down the fort back here at the office.
Take no chances :nono:,I want to get checked out in that plane:blueplane:,and I want you to make it back safe.:D
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You da man! :yes:
 
Today looks like a wall built to keep you there.


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Tomorrow looks like light rain

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After tomorrow it starts to get worse again.

Joe
 

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This talk makes me nervous Ed.....for at least one more time in your life....listen to your mother....STAY PUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
smigaldi said:
Scott Crossfield, Ed, Scott Crossfield

I don't think we need to say more.
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ed is instrument current and proficient. If he was like Scott Crossfield he would be in the middle of the line about now.
 
AdamZ said:
I too was going to say head west along the southern panhandle, land and wait for the passage and head north but given Ken's very local advice I vote with Grant. Enjoy what Jax has to offer and bug out when it clears. Be Safe!!!!
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He is at I75 and I10 according to his first note. That is not JAX it is Lake City. Enjoy the Stephen Foster Folk Center in White Springs.
 
OH GREAT SCOTT (Crossfield), Now you got your Mudda worried.
 
I am guessing at where you are, where you are going and how fast you can go!
 

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Right now this looks very doable to me. I would launch in my Mooney. But I would want NEXRAD on board. A new plane also adds an element of consideration.
 
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