I’m calling the peak

cowtowner said:
...I have a lake house...
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Where? I've been watching a few lakes in NC for 2 or so years. I haven't seen a decline like you mention.

I'm focused on deep water properties so as to minimize water level issues. I've seen a few properties with great dock pictures only to see the dock sitting on mud in satellite pictures.
 
Mahneuvers said:
Where? I've been watching a few lakes in NC for 2 or so years. I haven't seen a decline like you mention.

I'm focused on deep water properties so as to minimize water level issues. I've seen a few properties with great dock pictures only to see the dock sitting on mud in satellite pictures.
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Fort Worth

And with the lake 7' low I still have 13' of water under the dock

I used google earth to look at property history to gauge the lake levels before I even looked at one.
 
Randomskylane said:
This might explain why some people aren’t reducing their sale price right now.

When does mosaic become official? Year end? I suppose anything govt related is a crapshoot timing wise
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That law will, if passed and signed, go into effect this winter.

But how long for the FAA to change the regulations? Who knows. If they are behind the changes, quickly. If they do not agree with them, years.
 
Fun stuff out of VREF's Q3 update.
Good to know my eyes weren't deceiving me in seeing a slow down in transactions and some declining prices. The generally downbeat tone throughout the letter is a notable contrast to recent publications.

Overall commentary: keeping in mind this is only the viewpoint of one industry participant
1693854405501.png

Market trends:
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So does that mean engine lead times are coming down from Lyco and Conti?
 
$291,012 ave price for 340s 11/1/2022
$278,219 ave price for 340s 1/3/2023
$267,906 ave price for 340s 2/3/2023
$253,613 ave price for 340s 3/4/2023
$261,594 ave price for 340s 4/3/2023
$248,822 ave price for 340s 5/3/2023
$266,744 ave price for 340s 6/3/2023
$275,909 ave price for 340s 7/2/2023
$269,950 ave price for 340s 8/3/2023
$290,331 ave price for 340s 9/4/2023


$197,910 ave price for baron 11/1/2022
$185,057 ave price for baron 1/3/2023
$169,502 ave price for baron 2/3/2023
$191,411 ave price for baron 3/4/2023
$186,757 ave price for baron 4/3/2023
$190,231 ave price for baron 5/3/2023
$209,694 ave price for baron 6/3/2023
$196,829 ave price for baron 7/2/2023
$235,570 ave price for baron 8/3/2023
$216,500 ave price for baron 9/4/2023
 
Observation from the planes I have been watching. Initial listing price isn't coming down but they aren't selling either. I am seeing price drops before they disappear. Not sure if they are selling or sellers give up. Obviously fabric planes are a tough sell with lack of hangar space. Definitely fewer planes over all going on the market.
 
Grum.Man said:
Observation from the planes I have been watching. Initial listing price isn't coming down but they aren't selling either. I am seeing price drops before they disappear. Not sure if they are selling or sellers give up. Obviously fabric planes are a tough sell with lack of hangar space. Definitely fewer planes over all going on the market.
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Same observations as me...
When I see people hold their inventory for 4, 5, 6+ months I start to sense a bit of despair. I just wish we knew if the sellers actually went through with it and what discount % they had to use. As things stand today they seem a lot less favorable towards sellers.

... But then I see people like this guy or this guy or this guy and think to myself maybe Powell needs to hike a few more times before people really come back down to earth.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Same observations as me...
When I see people hold their inventory for 4, 5, 6+ months I start to sense a bit of despair. I just wish we knew if the sellers actually went through with it and what discount % they had to use. As things stand today they seem a lot less favorable towards sellers.

... But then I see people like this guy or this guy or this guy and think to myself maybe Powell needs to hike a few more times before people really come back down to earth.
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A lot of what I am seeing are planes that were sold in 2018-20 and the sellers are still wanting 2021-2022 prices and the market isn’t there anymore.
 
Those dont seem like 2022 prices. those seem like 2022 prices, plus 30%. 190k for a 172, yeesh
 
Barnstormers. Sep 5 2023. Review of Cessna 172N listed for sale.
7 aircraft identified for sale with clearly stated list price.
Average list price = $100,542. High = $147,900. Low = $35,000.
Average Engine SMOH = 1,651 hours. High = 3,300. Low = 136.

See post #509 for Aug 2023 summary.
 
For those too lazy to scroll back :)

Barnstormers. Aug 4 2023. Review of Cessna 172N listed for sale.
11 aircraft identified for sale with clearly stated list price.
Average list price = $123,204. High = $180,000. Low = $40,000.
Average Engine SMOH = 1,140 hours. High = 3,300. Low = 0.
 
Cluemeister said:
For those too lazy to scroll back :)

Barnstormers. Aug 4 2023. Review of Cessna 172N listed for sale.
11 aircraft identified for sale with clearly stated list price.
Average list price = $123,204. High = $180,000. Low = $40,000.
Average Engine SMOH = 1,140 hours. High = 3,300. Low = 0.
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thanks, if you do the math on Average list price 123k vs 100K and average engine time 1651 vs 1140, it explains a good bit of the difference in price.

23K price difference
511 hour engine difference (figure $40k/2000 hours = 20/hr) = 10K
 
hindsight2020 said:
172s are not a useful representation of the recreational piston single market. They're by and large work airplanes.
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What recreational GA airplane that isn't used as a trainer has enough sales volume to have a reasonable sample size? Maybe Skylane?
 
WDD said:
Airplane Prices dropping. Good.

All my spare money now going to buy bread and milk. Bad
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It really is bad, isn't it?...I was just saying to my SI, that our household has more money coming in than at any other time in our lives, over 1/2 million a year, yet we're broke all the time...or at least it seems like it.
 
Suggest a Dave Ramsey class - would really help

Sobering to think I couldn’t afford to buy my house today that I bought 5 years ago. What about the average Joe and Jane bringing in $60k for a family to live on?

Me - yeah, I’d like to buy a plane. I’m however blessed with enough awareness to know this is a first world problem.

OK. Rant over.
 
YakDrvr said:
That’s the nice kind of broke
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Yeah, I saw some couple who wrote an article that how they were always broke. Then they proceeded to explain how they had a $2 million home, funded both of their retirement account fully every single year, set aside money for two family vacations per year, money for a new car lease every two years, and money for all the extracurricular and fun things they and their children wanted to do. But poor them… They were always on zero at the end of the month. All I can think is… Those poor people. /sarcasm
 
John Spartan said:
Yeah, I saw some couple who wrote an article that how they were always broke. Then they proceeded to explain how they had a $2 million home, funded both of their retirement account fully every single year, set aside money for two family vacations per year, money for a new car lease every two years, and money for all the extracurricular and fun things they and their children wanted to do. But poor them… They were always on zero at the end of the month. All I can think is… Those poor people. /sarcasm
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That is an interesting use of the term "broke"
 
...I don't know...been actively looking for both, an airplane and a house for a long time and in both cases, for a very short time, prices seemed to at least stabilize only to shoot up again. People still have no problem going $100k-$300k over asking on houses and most of the airplanes (if they're half decent) are gone within couple of weeks for insane prices.
 
Ashara Keliyn said:
...I don't know...been actively looking for both, an airplane and a house for a long time and in both cases, for a very short time, prices seemed to at least stabilize only to shoot up again. People still have no problem going $100k-$300k over asking on houses and most of the airplanes (if they're half decent) are gone within couple of weeks for insane prices.
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Building an experimental has never made more sense.
 
camorton said:
Are there experimentals that would replace a family hauler like a 206, T210 or A36?

C.
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Not that I'm aware of but there is this:

www.avweb.com

Bearhawk Introduces Six-Seat Homebuilt (UPDATED)

Bearhawk Aircraft, best known for its two- and four-place utility homebuilts, will offer a new, larger model called the Bearhawk 5.
www.avweb.com www.avweb.com

I'm a homebuilt kinda guy for many reasons but when it comes to moving large amounts of humans the pickins is really thin ...

Video of 1st Customer built BearHawk 5
 
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Bob Noel said:
That is an interesting use of the term "broke"
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I seem to remember Hillary Clinton making a similar claim not too long ago when she was justifying her revenue from public-speaking events and such. Nothing like having multiple residences and tons of luxury items but calling yourself "broke", lol. I think people in that upper-echelon lose all touch with reality sometimes.
 
compairenterprises.com

Comp Air Aviation

Comp Air Aviation manufactures high performance experimantal aircraft that are suitable for the customer who is looking for more comfort with a lower price tag.
compairenterprises.com compairenterprises.com

Daleandee said:
Not that I'm aware of but there is this:

www.avweb.com

Bearhawk Introduces Six-Seat Homebuilt (UPDATED)

Bearhawk Aircraft, best known for its two- and four-place utility homebuilts, will offer a new, larger model called the Bearhawk 5.
www.avweb.com www.avweb.com

I'm a homebuilt kinda guy for many reasons but when it comes to moving large amounts of humans the pickins is really thin ...

Video of 1st Customer built BearHawk 5
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For every seat you add the liability $$ goes up. Not a huge market for people needing more than 4 seats. Keep in mind, most experimental aircraft with 4 seats can really haul 4 people unlike a lot of certified airplanes.
 
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