I’m calling the peak

Factor in inflation, and the peak might have been last year …….
 
jsstevens said:
What I find interesting is that simple planes (Cherokee fixed gear 4 seat, C-172, C-15x) are commanding a premium relative to more capable machines (think Mooney, Bonanza, Arrow). I wonder how much this is driven by insurance? We've got another thread running on 75 year olds and insurance. And don't even get started on twins (which are 2x to feed and then some not counting maintenance).


This is based on simple observation and not any scientific analysis of the data.
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The examples you mention command a premium because they often have a job (flight school). Aircraft with no real job often suffer suppressed values compared to those that do.
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
Everyone just has to accept a new norm unless you want to enter a period of deflation. We are needing to buy a heat treat system that 2 years ago was $70k. It is now $135k. It's not just airplanes. Inflation sucks. Welcome to the rodeo.
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There is a 100% chance that airplane values are going to go down. Bank on it. It's happened before. It will happen again.
 
idk prices just seem to keep getting more insane. Granted they are asking prices but if people don't get it they don't seem to sell.

Bellanca ECA with 2800 + hours SMOH 49k
Hiperbipe with 45 year old engine 41 year old fabric and junk radios 10 years out of annual 44.5k
O235 Grumman Yankees for 40-58k
O290 power anything more than pocket change! :rolleyes:

Total insanity
 
Is that $250k Cardinal still on the market ?
 
Over the last 45 days asking prices have come down some.
The "OverallSeriesListingPxChg" field shows the average current listing price for the series (as of yesterday) compared to the value on 11/1/23.
The "AvgListingPxChg" isolates the price change to only those aircraft that were listed on both 11/1 and 12/15 and remain unsold. This is the amt buyers have dropped (or increased) on avg.
Listing Turnover computes tails that were listed on 11/1/23 no longer listed 12/15/23. Could be indicative of either a sale or a de-listing.

Still standard disclaimer: not enough history to know if this is seasonal or not.

1702759365824.png

EDIT:
And probably not a total shocker but after eliminating the smallest aircraft categories and ranking price (1 being most expensive, 22=cheapest) to turnover%, there's a fair relationship between price and turnover.
The cheaper model series sell faster. Good case and point is to compare the 150/152s to SR22s as an extreme. Or even 150series to 172s. Or Beech 36s to 35s. SR22 to SR20, etc.
Not a perfect relationship by any means, but it's there.
1702762698707.png

As an aside, poking around with a/c sales data is a good activity on a cold, rainy, depressing IFR day :)
 
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172andyou said:
Yep, and housing will never experience another correction either...

“Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
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And the irony of @hindsight2020 liking your post is he's been calling a recession since 2019. Still hasn't shown up.

That's not a shot at you @hindsight2020 . We've all been holding our breath for years and nothing has materialized. Short of another pandemic, a war on our soil or another banking crisis, the prices are here to stay.
 
fast99 said:
Good point, cost of restoring or rebuilding could be higher than resale value. I am more versed on collector cars, very true in that market.

There is the buy it and fix up as money allows people. At some point I hope to be able to buy one. Higher the market gets the lower the quality of aircraft I can afford or justify.
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Airplanes are the same. When you get finished, you'll have in it a bit more than what it's worth. But if you take good care of it, you can enjoy it by that amount, then sell it for what it's really worth.
I bought the Cherokee for a dirt cheep price, and sunk several many AMUs into it in the first couple of months. I've been enjoying it for the past 7 years now, with no intention of selling it.
 
WDD said:
Spot on - I’m with you that I believe the cost of insurance for retracts is driving demand down. My problem is compounded because in 8 years I’ll be 70, which means I’d have to sell it after a short ownership.
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I couldn't get my Dad on the insurance for the Cherokee 140 due to his age (over 80). Had he not canceled his insurance when he sold his 182, it would have been no problem. But the lapse in coverage, and his age shot him down. But he could still fly under the "open pilot" clause, on my insurance, as it had no age restriction, and he far exceeded all the requirements.
 
mondtster said:
The examples you mention command a premium because they often have a job (flight school). Aircraft with no real job often suffer suppressed values compared to those that do.
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Also they can be flown under Basic Med. so mabe there are folks selling their HP/complex, and buying the simpler aircraft to keep flying.
 
My Dad and Granddad once pooled their money and came up with ~$5k. They bought several Steermans, a BT13, an AT6, and a couple of PT19s. Total of about 60 airplanes. They sold all at a profit, Mabe made $2k. and kept one PT19 for themselves. Now look at the price for one of those.
 
bluerooster said:
Also they can be flown under Basic Med. so mabe there are folks selling their HP/complex, and buying the simpler aircraft to keep flying.
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A lot of high performance and complex airplanes can also be flown under basic med. Insurance may be pushing some older people out of them but I'm not convinced that is driving much of the price since basic training aircraft have always commanded a bit of a premium.
 
For some reason I thought basic med limited to 4 seats and under 200HP. Or mabe 4 seats and fixed gear. I'll have to go back and re-read the rule.
 
OK, 5pax, 18kmsl or below, =/<250knots. So HP/complex is fine, and I guess Insurance may well be pushing them out.
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
And the irony of @hindsight2020 liking your post is he's been calling a recession since 2019. Still hasn't shown up.

That's not a shot at you @hindsight2020 . We've all been holding our breath for years and nothing has materialized. Short of another pandemic, a war on our soil or another banking crisis, the prices are here to stay.
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No offense taken. Glad you acknowledge I said it in 2019, that's important. The following isn't directed at you either btw, but allow me to retort to the implication:

COVID meddling doesn't invalidate the fundamentals. But one cannot put the thumb on the scale, then turn around and mock the critics of the K-economy as "broken clock" doomsayers. Take the thumb off the scale, then folks can call me out on it.

To wit, the Fed specifically meddled with M2 as a result of COVID demand destruction. But since the gamblers and debtors hate taking their medicine, Pareto's principle says they get a do-over with Congress. We savers (sorry, I misspelled SUCKERS) don't. Same BS they pulled when their MBS gambling addiction got everybody paying for it in 2008.

BL, all these PSPers and PPPers (and yes, that includes some cherry-picked winners on here who resemble the remark), to say nothing of the bank bail-INs (few people remember the moral hazard infusions post-SiliconValleyBank, Americans and their short attention span) that were enacted post china flu, made these morally bankrupt gambling addicts very happy.

1702772044267.png
Look at that complete @ssclownery. Literally made 2008 look like a flat line. Where you think all that excess sewage is gonna pool on? Where we eat, drive and sleep of course. They hung powdered-wigged clowns for less back in 1789. None of this is a particular hot take, I'm just describing the water at this juncture. But it is the height of hubris to suggest they can keep that up forever, just to appease some laptop class pajama bois and the emotional appeal they should be able to sell everything they buy for more money than they bought it for. gtfo.

Take that specific action by the Fed out, and we would have been well past the correction already. But because I cannot prove a negative, I get smeared a tin foil crank waiting on the end times? Pfft, hardly. Like I said, get the thumb off the scale then get back to me.

My adjacent housing zip code is -25% YoY, mine is -12%. Inventory is on the rise, liquidity is in the trash bin. So yeah, hold on, let me adjust my broken clock and say, in the rather apropos words of the Wolf himself:
:rofl:
 
Another quick cut. This time 3 months instead of 1 month view.

Looking in aggregate it's pretty clear on both an avg/median px basis that there has been a listing price increase. If there's a directional correlation between asking price and actual sale price, things have continued to spike in Q4 2023. The only thing that makes me think the bid/ask spread is getting wider btw buyer/seller is that VREF, which purports to have actual sale prices, shows a modest decline in light single/complex single indices.

1702852855355.png

VREF Light Single (the aircraft series here is a Cessna 172M; index is for light single)
1702852961113.png

VREF Complex Single Index (the aircraft series here is a Piper Arrow; index is for complex single)
1702852994009.png
 
WDD said:
I wonder if clown pricing is occurring because financial reality is catching up with some over stretched owners? (IOW - oh crap, I really do have to keep making payments month after month).
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I think you're right on the money there. After I started searching for a 150, 152, 172 or a Grumman AA5 to potentially purchase to continue with my PPL training, I made two calls to inquire on a couple and received some call-backs with significant price drops only "...if you want to buy it now." There's a mix of clown school, desperation, and just plain abi-normal based on what friends & acquaintances have paid in the past.
 
Updated numbers from the data collection...

My takeaways:
(1) Notable decline in the listing count, which I've also noticed manually scrolling TAP/controller. Could be seasonal, people waiting until spring to sell. Not sure.
(2) Avg pricing has declined by nearly 8%, driven disproportionately by contributions from the high-end aircraft Beech 36 and SR22 price drops. Median prices for all aircraft only declined about 3%.
(3) The change in PA28 pricing is also notable, especially in contrast to 172 pricing strength. Average fleet age in listings is 50 years for C172s vs 55y for PA28s, so it's not like PA28s are older and less attractive... 172s are just a really strong market.
(4) I thought there'd be a bigger decline in turnover over the holidays, but no. Nov/Dec saw 43% listing turnover, Dec/Jan 36%. People stayed busy either looking for deals or taking their listings offline.

1705341524309.png
 
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Both came in the mail recently. One speaks a little to the 172 strength as mentioned, the other says it's from Aircraft Bluebook Dec. 23, and references 1975 Skylanes.
Estimating the graph, looks like from $170k down to $140k, so about 17.5ish percent. Pretty much right in line with @ArrowFlyer86's chart.

1705344237069.png
 
NealRomeoGolf said:
That 6/260 that dropped $50k was due to a ridiculous starting price. I have nicer kit in my Lance and wouldn't think of trying to get $230k.
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That happens a lot. I've seen that the most with 182s, I think. They come out of the gate with an asking price that is more aspirational than grounded in reality. Then they have a hard reset in their asking price.

The 1958 Cessna 182A tailwheel conversion is one such example. Just a cool 50k price decline this month and now listed as "negotiable". Can't fault people for trying to get top dollar, but sometimes it just seems so out of market.
 
Since I have consistently linked aircraft to second home prices in this thread, I declare the peak to be two weeks from now. That is when I close on my condo in the Colorado mountains, so of course the long-awaited correction is imminent.

But seriously, after 3 years of obsessively watching the market and over-analyzing every indicator, I have concluded that anyone who says they know what will happen is FOS.

IMO it depends on you and your situation. If you can’t afford to buy without a correction, then your choices are keep watching and hoping, or redefine your goals.

If you can afford to buy but are hoping for a better deal or fearful of taking a loss, then you have to ask yourself which risk scares you more: watching the market drop after you buy, or never buying because prices keep rising.
 
What value is the light twin in, I see the same twin Comanches and Cessna 337 over and over are they selling at what value?
 
brien23 said:
What value is the light twin in, I see the same twin Comanches and Cessna 337 over and over are they selling at what value?
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@brien23
Here's VREFs "Light Twin Index" (blue). The green chart is C310Q pricing. Unfortunately my process doesn't collect info for twin engines.

1705428892158.png
 
So there's a chance I can trade my 172 straight for a Bonanza V35? Nice.
 
Same thing happened for the RVs (not the planes but campers). During Covid, if you remember all RV sale lots were emptied. Second hand RV prices were skyrocketed. Since almost every family got one and now all those lots are full to their limits, prices are coming down with special deal offers. I see ridiculously high asking prices for very basic planes with not so good specs... But then I also witness more realistic "Sold" prices! In some cases $10k-$12k lower than asking prices...
With the high loan rates, fuel prices, labor cost, avionics and other parts costs.... I bet we will see a little stabilization soon if not walking backwards a little even..
 
Skyrys62 said:
Both came in the mail recently. One speaks a little to the 172 strength as mentioned, the other says it's from Aircraft Bluebook Dec. 23, and references 1975 Skylanes.
Estimating the graph, looks like from $170k down to $140k, so about 17.5ish percent. Pretty much right in line with @ArrowFlyer86's chart.

View attachment 124393
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Haha! Got the exact same mailer in the mail today!
 
UngaWunga said:
So there's a chance I can trade my 172 straight for a Bonanza V35? Nice.
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Of course, and it's not particularly unique either. That hypothetical still existed in less inflated markets, like say the last decade. I think there was a guy who totaled an AA-5B on here or some such, couldn't find a replacement for anywhere near what he bought the first one (implication being AA-5B pricing was wackadoodle culty), so he lateraled into a Be-35 for the same premium.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Over the last 45 days asking prices have come down some.
The "OverallSeriesListingPxChg" field shows the average current listing price for the series (as of yesterday) compared to the value on 11/1/23.
The "AvgListingPxChg" isolates the price change to only those aircraft that were listed on both 11/1 and 12/15 and remain unsold. This is the amt buyers have dropped (or increased) on avg.
Listing Turnover computes tails that were listed on 11/1/23 no longer listed 12/15/23. Could be indicative of either a sale or a de-listing.

Still standard disclaimer: not enough history to know if this is seasonal or not.

View attachment 123324

EDIT:
And probably not a total shocker but after eliminating the smallest aircraft categories and ranking price (1 being most expensive, 22=cheapest) to turnover%, there's a fair relationship between price and turnover.
The cheaper model series sell faster. Good case and point is to compare the 150/152s to SR22s as an extreme. Or even 150series to 172s. Or Beech 36s to 35s. SR22 to SR20, etc.
Not a perfect relationship by any means, but it's there.
View attachment 123328

As an aside, poking around with a/c sales data is a good activity on a cold, rainy, depressing IFR day :)
Click to expand...
Where do you get this data from? Is it downloadable easily?
 
There's an interesting article in WSJ about VistaJet's financial issues.

Some of the fun charts from the write-up (biz jets):
1705971873057.png
1705971904313.png

andddd that's usually a bad sign...
1705971925383.png
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
There's an interesting article in WSJ about VistaJet's financial issues….
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Saw that this morning the reference Wheels Up, which was a resounding success as an airline.

Seems Flohr’s creative bets paid off for him, at least.
 
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