I’m calling the peak

Quick data updates.
There's been a minor data collection error on my behalf that I just fixed this AM (whoops!). But trends still hold :)

Total listings per day that pass the filtering criteria.
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Average aircraft asking price by day. The increase in price seems to be largely due to the cheaper ones selling off, not as much due to new listings being added at a higher price.
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And pricing per make/manufacturer
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So beech, Cessna and Mooney are maybe peaking now? Cirrus and piper already declining?

Is that because of repacking chutes and the wing spar? Why did those start to come down sooner?
 
I’m also calling market peak. My momentum following trackers point to a decline.
 
the funny thing here is that with those that have called and keep calling multiple peaks . . that eventually you'll be right. . . .
 
So when the market painfully drops they call it a “correction”. Not when it goes up. It’s not “correct” when it goes up?

Some negative vibes there …..
 
Barnstormers. Nov 5 2023. Review of Cessna 172N listed for sale.
9 aircraft identified for sale with clearly stated list price.
Average list price = $127,922. High = $189,900. Low = $79,000.
Average Engine SMOH = 1,245 hours. High = 3,260. Low = 85.

_______________Aug 2023____Sep 2023_____Oct 2023____Nov 2023
Avg list price.___$123,204_____100,542______133,563____127,922
Avg SMOH.________1,140_______1,651________894________1,245
Count (N)__________11__________7___________11_________9
Post #_____________509________573__________654_______687
 
wsquare said:
Barnstormers. Nov 5 2023. Review of Cessna 172N listed for sale.
9 aircraft identified for sale with clearly stated list price.
Average list price = $127,922. High = $189,900. Low = $79,000.
Average Engine SMOH = 1,245 hours. High = 3,260. Low = 85.

_______________Aug 2023____Sep 2023_____Oct 2023____Nov 2023
Avg list price.___$123,204_____100,542______133,563____127,922
Avg SMOH.________1,140_______1,651________894________1,245
Count (N)__________11__________7___________11_________9
Post #_____________509________573__________654_______687
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Curious if there's something specific about the N model that makes it a good sampling metric? (or is that a plane you're in the market for?)
The prices on it seem to vary a bit, guessing partially b/c of the small N.
 
Terry M - 3CK (Chicago) said:
So beech, Cessna and Mooney are maybe peaking now? Cirrus and piper already declining?

Is that because of repacking chutes and the wing spar? Why did those start to come down sooner?
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I suspect (though could be wrong) that the more expensive the plane, the more sensitive the buyer is to interest rates. Models like SR22, Malibu/Matrix while still much more expensive than the average GA have chopped prices quite a bit.

One thing I wish I could control for in my own data is the SMOH, but my scraper doesn't collect it. Some of these mid/expensive GAs are being sold with much higher SMOHs than I remember, many less than 300ish hours to TBO.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
...the more expensive the plane, the more sensitive the buyer is to interest rates...
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I'm thinking the opposite. I've been shopping lake properties for a while. I was told this and am seeing it. These owners have the wherewithal and resources to be patient until the market benefits them.
 
WDD said:
Accountant: look at our fantastic margins on each unit sold! BTW - we are selling only 1/10 of what we used to and can’t cover our expenses anymore. But - look at our margins! Executive bonus time!
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American airplane manufacturers, or American automobile manufacturers? :)
Maybe we'll just own the IP on the car, and outsource everything else, and that'll work out just fine.
 
Every seller thinks their aircraft is worth its weight in gold.
 
Terry M - 3CK (Chicago) said:
So beech, Cessna and Mooney are maybe peaking now? Cirrus and piper already declining?

Is that because of repacking chutes and the wing spar? Why did those start to come down sooner?
Click to expand...
In theory Cirruses should always be decreasing slowly. That's the one make where supply is still increasing and the fleet is still new enough to be depreciating.

P/Ce/M have far more being wrecked/scrapped than built so supply is steadily decreasing, and the majority are old enough that they depreciated long ago.
 
ArrowFlyer's data are quite interesting. Since his vertical axes don't start at zero, the changes are exaggerated compared to being looked at on a percentage basis. I am actually surprised that the price increases over the five years of data aren't more.
 
Ashara Keliyn said:
Every seller thinks their aircraft is worth its weight in gold.
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I guess I didn't get that memo. If that were true, I would have put a new engine on mine and listed it for the entire nut+ engine, which would be even more overpriced in my own estimation. All 3 airplanes I've owned I've listed (and so far sold) at a lower value than I purchased, without much gnashing of teeth. Granted, the last one is a legitimately different circumstance, as I'm being bumped off into salvage/firesale by lack of regulatory relief, not just inflationary market conditions. But that's a different fight not for this thread.

I have zero problems listing my aircraft below purchase price, as I've done multiple times in the past. I'd love for the supply of serviceable aircraft to remain healthy; the market though appears disinterested in that affair. That's not on me, that's on the "market". No whining about lack of supply though, can't have cake and eat it too type of thing.
Todd82 said:
P/Ce/M have far more being wrecked/scrapped than built so supply is steadily decreasing, and the majority are old enough that they depreciated long ago.
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Yup, I resemble the remark. Another serviceable airframe going to the scrap yard here eventually if I don't find someone interested in a flip. In spite of my frustrations with fac-built, I'd love nothing more than to have someone interested in keeping the inventory of the flying ranks affordable (I'm trying to do my part by listing instead of scrapping, though I of course acknowledge my self-interest in trying to recoup some of my loss). I love the fact my prior airplane is doing the lords work in some Bangkok flight school (lol I just love the fact I can tell a personal story with Bangkok in it), though I'm disheartened we couldn't keep it in the USA. At any rate, the market will eventually have the final say on this whole affair. Like I said, we get the market we're willing to tolerate.
 
hindsight2020 said:
. . . Yup, I resemble the remark. Another serviceable airframe going to the scrap yard here eventually if I don't find someone interested in a flip. In spite of my frustrations with fac-built, I'd love nothing more than to have someone interested in keeping the inventory of the flying ranks affordable (I'm trying to do my part by listing instead of scrapping, though I of course acknowledge my self-interest in trying to recoup some of my loss). I love the fact my prior airplane is doing the lords work in some Bangkok flight school (lol I just love the fact I can tell a personal story with Bangkok in it), though I'm disheartened we couldn't keep it in the USA. At any rate, the market will eventually have the final say on this whole affair. Like I said, we get the market we're willing to tolerate.
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Confucius says: Man who walk through airport door sideways is going to Bangkok
 
"Every seller thinks their aircraft is worth its weight in gold."

And every buyer is willing to fork over the requisite weight of gold to take ownership. Sounds like a successful transaction.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
Some of these mid/expensive GAs are being sold with much higher SMOHs than I remember, many less than 300ish hours to TBO.
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I think that's more about the engine overhaul situation right now - parts prices are crazy and many of the big shops are backed up for six months or more. I can imagine lots of owners don't want to deal with it and are taking the opportunity to get out or move to something else.

C.
 
<----resembles that ^^^^^^ remark to an uncanny degree.
 
camorton said:
I think that's more about the engine overhaul situation right now - parts prices are crazy and many of the big shops are backed up for six months or more. I can imagine lots of owners don't want to deal with it and are taking the opportunity to get out or move to something else.

C.
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I still contend that Rotax may win the long game just based on this alone. Engines are reaching the 200 hp mark now.
 
camorton said:
I think that's more about the engine overhaul situation right now - parts prices are crazy and many of the big shops are backed up for six months or more. I can imagine lots of owners don't want to deal with it and are taking the opportunity to get out or move to something else.

C.
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I can totally see this being the case. If I knew I was coming up on OH and needed to either bail on the plane or have an ungodly large cash outflow (and wait for a long time), I'd probably cut and run too.
 
wsquare said:
"Every seller thinks their aircraft is worth its weight in gold."

And every buyer is willing to fork over the requisite weight of gold to take ownership. Sounds like a successful transaction.
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Tell it to the guy who's trying to sell his cardinal for 1/4 million for over a year now.

Although, yes, some do... free money is easy to spend.
 
n=1 this month fwiw. Sold the airplane in 12 days (if you include waiting for closing, otherwise just a week) for listed price, non-flyaway condition mind you. The you know what buy/seller site never offered me the option of providing a sold sign or disclose to them the sold-for amount, so no idea how the heck that would make it to a comp database. But I can tell you anecdotally, mine should have driven those comp prices down by a lot.

As to the sale turnaround, had to finally direct people to google drive just to get the lookie loos distracted with 50 years of inane log entries; the inquiries were getting too many to individually reply to. Yes, tons of low balls (I don't mind them, proud practitioner of the same) and time-waster/kicker lookie loos (I do mind those). But that's just Tuesday dealing with the general public. Certainly reminded me why I hate selling anything to private parties.

The irony is that I strongly considered salvaging the thing at a bigger loss for the sake of expediency and less hassle... and only didn't because Wentworth never returned my email! Same indifference as the engine vendors. One replied back with the most competitive quote, a month late... the day after closing. I thought that was rather apropos. Even when you're giving it away, "boutique" too busy for your money. Can't make this ish up.

On the other side of things, I've been doing the P-8 thing and dropping sonobuoy offers to certain EABs (I'm a glutton for punishment). And hoo boi, do I empathize with buyers. The recalcitrance and emotional investment is in interstellar space for some of these space cadets. And I say that someone in the position of a seller and buyer in the same time frame. I'm largely shutting it down for the holidays, but we'll see how the mood is after everybody gets their last fill of irrational exuberance this holiday shopping season. Late Jan/Feb tend to be the "ish, I regret having done that last December..." hangover quarter for americans, very curious to see how 2024 will play out on that front.

My takeaway, people are asking too much if the listings aren't moving in 30 days time. Most of these people just don't strike me as serious sellers, just the equivalent to tire-kickers. Post-covidians still trying to sneak one last FOMO lotto ticket, born on third base think they've hit a triple. They didn't get the memo that 2022 was two years ago.
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(FED rates, historical)

I have enjoyed their insults. Had one argue I needed to prove to him I could secure financing and insurance (cuz them piston FG trikes are a handful :rolleyes:... he could see my occupation on the FB profile mind you) before he would even "let me know" what his asking price was for that bare boned wood propped RV. *clown emoji* Wouldn't even release pictures of the panel and interior. The Glasair boys haven't been much better. A Glas-2 seller turned me down tersely over a 15% underbid, all-cash no financing delay. Not even a counteroffer to get closer to his number or anything. Listing is still up a month later. Then there's the guy asking saratoga money (to wit, more than what the G-2 seller was asking!) for a Glasair 1FT... a 1. *double clown emoji*

2024 is gonna be interesting. Let's gooooo! :biggrin:
 
hindsight2020 said:
n=1 this month fwiw. Sold the airplane in 12 days (if you include waiting for closing, otherwise just a week) for listed price, non-flyaway condition mind you. The you know what buy/seller site never offered me the option of providing a sold sign or disclose to them the sold-for amount, so no idea how the heck that would make it to a comp database. But I can tell you anecdotally, mine should have driven those comp prices down by a lot.

As to the sale turnaround, had to finally direct people to google drive just to get the lookie loos distracted with 50 years of inane log entries; the inquiries were getting too many to individually reply to. Yes, tons of low balls (I don't mind them, proud practitioner of the same) and time-waster/kicker lookie loos (I do mind those). But that's just Tuesday dealing with the general public. Certainly reminded me why I hate selling anything to private parties.

The irony is that I strongly considered salvaging the thing at a bigger loss for the sake of expediency and less hassle... and only didn't because Wentworth never returned my email! Same indifference as the engine vendors. One replied back with the most competitive quote, a month late... the day after closing. I thought that was rather apropos. Even when you're giving it away, "boutique" too busy for your money. Can't make this ish up.

On the other side of things, I've been doing the P-8 thing and dropping sonobuoy offers to certain EABs (I'm a glutton for punishment). And hoo boi, do I empathize with buyers. The recalcitrance and emotional investment is in interstellar space for some of these space cadets. And I say that someone in the position of a seller and buyer in the same time frame. I'm largely shutting it down for the holidays, but we'll see how the mood is after everybody gets their last fill of irrational exuberance this holiday shopping season. Late Jan/Feb tend to be the "ish, I regret having done that last December..." hangover quarter for americans, very curious to see how 2024 will play out on that front.

My takeaway, people are asking too much if the listings aren't moving in 30 days time. Most of these people just don't strike me as serious sellers, just the equivalent to tire-kickers. Post-covidians still trying to sneak one last FOMO lotto ticket, born on third base think they've hit a triple. They didn't get the memo that 2022 was two years ago.
View attachment 122497
(FED rates, historical)

I have enjoyed their insults. Had one argue I needed to prove to him I could secure financing and insurance (cuz them piston FG trikes are a handful :rolleyes:... he could see my occupation on the FB profile mind you) before he would even "let me know" what his asking price was for that bare boned wood propped RV. *clown emoji* Wouldn't even release pictures of the panel and interior. The Glasair boys haven't been much better. A Glas-2 seller turned me down tersely over a 15% underbid, all-cash no financing delay. Not even a counteroffer to get closer to his number or anything. Listing is still up a month later. Then there's the guy asking saratoga money (to wit, more than what the G-2 seller was asking!) for a Glasair 1FT... a 1. *double clown emoji*

2024 is gonna be interesting. Let's gooooo! :biggrin:
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Glad you're already thinking of getting into EAB land! And the N=1 data point is still good anecdotal evidence... 12 days is faster than I would have assumed.

There are some sellers downright hostile to buyers and I really don't know why. I understand getting fed up with tire kickers but you're still in the biz of selling your plane. One bruh responded to my all cash offer (at 12% discount to asking price) in all caps saying "read the ad, I said no insulting offers. Try harder."

People like this aren't worth getting into bed with for a deal. Things only get worse when inevitable hiccups occur.

It's a clown world indeed.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
People like this aren't worth getting into bed with for a deal. Things only get worse when inevitable hiccups occur.
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So true. In all walks of life.

The guy who runs our private airfield tells owners looking for a hangar "we have one rule here. Don't be a dick." So far he has a 100% track record of screening out unsuitable applicants by their reaction.
 
I still shake my head at the prices I see planes listed for. I sold my 150 with a low time engine, and nice radio in above average condition 3 years ago for 18k and thought I made out like a bandit on the sale. I see equivalent planes listed now for 35-42 and can't imagine paying that for a 150 of any condition. I sold my Grumman Yankee 8 years ago for $16.5 with only 30 hours on a top overhaul. Granted it had rough paint and old but functional radios but now I see them in the mid to upper 40's! There is some comfort in seeing them sit on the market for extended periods but every so often one sells and makes my jaw drop all over again. Financing an airplane seems to be a lot easier now which I think has contributed to a lot of the price increases and the current slow decline. Once the bar has been raised as high as it was the last two years it makes it improbable it will ever return to reasonable.
 
Prices are just a bit crazy. Had a tire patched this morning (don't plug a radial) and it ate up thirty five bucks but that did include balancing ...
 
Just my anecdotal observation, but it feels like the market has cooled down a bit. The crazy high prices are staying on the market, and more reasonable deals seem to pop up.

Personal pet peeve with listings: "I have $xx invested into this airplane."
 
samiamPA said:
Just my anecdotal observation, but it feels like the market has cooled down a bit. The crazy high prices are staying on the market, and more reasonable deals seem to pop up.

Personal pet peeve with listings: "I have $xx invested into this airplane."
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The new trend is going to be the planes purchased in 2021/2022 now for sale with owners complaining they "can't sell it for less than I've got in it".
 
Grum.Man said:
The new trend is going to be the planes purchased in 2021/2022 now for sale with owners complaining they "can't sell it for less than I've got in it".
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i've seen many listings where I think to myself that the seller is clearly pricing in all the costs, dollar for dollar, of purchase price and upgrades trying to be made whole on their way out.

Don't blame them but I don't think it always works out the way they want it to.

the dude with the quarter million dollar cardinal, and the recently listed 220k$+ 172 (1970s model with mid time engine and heavily upgraded avionics) come to mind as case studies lol.
 
Grum.Man said:
The new trend is going to be the planes purchased in 2021/2022 now for sale with owners complaining they "can't sell it for less than I've got in it".
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They are doing you a favor by being clear about their mindset. Better that than wondering why you can't get a realistic ask from them.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
i've seen many listings where I think to myself that the seller is clearly pricing in all the costs, dollar for dollar, of purchase price and upgrades trying to be made whole on their way out.

Don't blame them but I don't think it always works out the way they want it to.

the dude with the quarter million dollar cardinal, and the recently listed 220k$+ 172 (1970s model with mid time engine and heavily upgraded avionics) come to mind as case studies lol.
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That has always been a common method of operation, particularly among the older crowd. I remembe people listing Loran receivers, in boats and planes even after the system was shut down. The response was "well it cost me $5000." You can't argue with that mentality.
 
ArrowFlyer86 said:
i've seen many listings where I think to myself that the seller is clearly pricing in all the costs, dollar for dollar, of purchase price and upgrades trying to be made whole on their way out.

Don't blame them but I don't think it always works out the way they want it to.

the dude with the quarter million dollar cardinal, and the recently listed 220k$+ 172 (1970s model with mid time engine and heavily upgraded avionics) come to mind as case studies lol.
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Not to mention the ones who say new battery, new tires, just spent $xxx on maintenance. So what, you need to keep your plane airworthy!
 
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