How to solve the US pilot shortage

Jackk said:
Lol!

There is no “pilot shortage” it’s a pay shortage.

Why would someone work for a regional, live in a 3 star motel, and make far less than a 135 who is home more and has a better quality of life?

The airlines and their unions are all about pushing this BS “pilot shortage”

Its the same pay to play, same reason for the 65yr old mandatory firing, at the time they finally make the advertised big money, despite being able to hold a 1st class medial, same with needing 1,000hrs 121 time to make capt, despite the plane not knowing what FAR it’s operating under, and science not caring, toss a engine on takeoff, it’s the same 91/135/121


The reason the 1500 is under the paid for media eye, if you’re only paying 50k a year, who is more willing to live in the back of their car to fly a regional, a 500hr wonder, or a experienced professional ATP?
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Maybe it’s a pay shortage at the regionals, but the majors are feeling it, and it’s definitely not a pay shortage there (IMO).

Several major carriers are changing their hiring practices to “cast a wider net” because they need pilots.

Delta Air Lines recently shortened the time that an unsuccessful applicant had to wait to reapply. From 12 months (maybe it was 6) down to 3 months.

Several airlines have removed the college degree requirement recently (including my airline, just today).

Southwest (and others) got rid of the 1,000 turbine PIC requirement, and I know there have been several new hires at SWA who came there from the right seat at the regionals.

If anyone was thinking about making the jump to airline flying, there probably isn’t a better time to do it than now.

Edit: of course if the global economy implodes and we go into a recession/depression, I take back everything I’ve said.
 
tspear said:
I disagree that the airlines cannot restructure the majority of flights to be out and back; out of a hub.
This could be done to attract the next generation of pilots as part of a work/life balance. Which is becoming a larger factor in employment and employee retention.
However, this is only a belief on my part. I am not in the industry, so....

Tim
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The Big 3 pax airlines, and the big 2 cargo airlines, use the hub and spoke model, and do not have the outbasing for crews that Allegiant does. They aren't having an issue filling classes. Allegiant is barely in positive numbers when it comes to hiring pilots. It doesn't help that they have the lowest pay for Airbus pilots in the US.

FPK1 said:
A new airline received 3,000 applications for its first 50 pilot jobs despite a global shortage of flight crew

https://www.businessinsider.com/nor...cations-despite-labor-shortage-aircrew-2022-5
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The overseas pilot market is much different than the market in the US, especially with all the expats getting out of China and HK. And 3000 applications does not mean that 3000 qualified people applied.
 
I just flew with an FO that came from Allegiant. He said the old paradigm of all out-and-backs is over. They now do 2-4 day trips. I haven’t confirmed it independently anywhere else, but that’s what he was saying.
 
Sluggo63 said:
I just flew with an FO that came from Allegiant. He said the old paradigm of all out-and-backs is over. They now do 2-4 day trips. I haven’t confirmed it independently anywhere else, but that’s what he was saying.
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Some truth. My old base has ~20% of its block hours for June in multi-day trips. However each base is sort of it’s own small airline. Your FO could be accurate in their statement for their former base. I have only kept up with my old domicile. There were 11 FO’s in my base and we all knew each other well.

Allegiant is at a crossroads. If they continue to grow the micro base all day trip model will transition to a blend of overnights and day trips with more overnights as they grow or they can keep the current model and contract some to be stable with all day trips.

Based on my experience at Allegiant my money is on a slight reduction in size to be stable and maintain the current model. Just my hunch. Time will tell.
 
I got as far as Kit Darby in the article and threw up a little and decided to out that article in the trash where it belongs.
 
edessa said:
The part 91 department i worked for did not require pilots to be ATP rated but the insurance company did or they would insure the aircraft.
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“The insurance company requires it” is often code for the company asking what they could do to reduce their rates, and the insurance company saying, “well, if you require all of your pilots to be ATPs….”
 
Seems one of the biggest hurdles for many is insurance.

Is going without insurance not an option?

Or the bare bones basic insurance?
 
Fearless Tower said:
They tried that already. All it did was kick the can down the road. A temporary fix at best.
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Did it actually make things worse?

I recall someone saying that when the mandatory retirement age was bumped from 60 to 65 all in one go, the result was that few airline pilots retired for a five-year period, so there were few airline job openings then. Students gave up, or didn’t even start, for years. Later, when retirements did start again, the pipeline of replacements wasn’t ready, thereby manufacturing a new shortage of pilots.
 
Are there any numbers indicating how many people may become pilots who never planned to become airline pilots, but then if a shortage of airline pilots happened, changed their minds, and did so after all?
 
Tarheelpilot said:
Not to mention the airline pilots hired in the good old USA back in the 60’s that had zero hours.

It’s not hours.
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That's not exactly true.

Some majors hired low time pilots in the late 60s, yes. It was for a few years. Most required you have a commercial-multi-instrument. It was pre-deregulation, so airlines had gobs of money to spend on training, and your typical airline course was 3 months long.

Oh, yea, they were hired as Flight Engineers. That meant you got to watch operations from the back seat for a couple years before actually flying.

Almost all those guys were furloughed a few years later during the gas crisis and subsequent recession.

The defacto minimum for your basic commuter job for DECADES was 1500/300, plus or minus a bit. Even during the late 80s and 90s when airline hiring was brisk, and some commuters/regionals had 100% annual turnover. Yet somehow they kept the lights on without going to wet commercial minimums. Why was that? Because of the pot of gold the major airlines represented. Contracts had a full retirement, paid medical, good trips and a decent lifestyle. It was worth the hassle to try to grab the golden ring. IFR 135 mins basically parallel ATP requirements (1,200 vs 1,500), but I don't hear anyone clamoring to pull those down (pro-tip, insurance companies won't allow it).

Today, the airline lifestyle definitely isn't that. Benefits are stripped down, you pay for your own retirement and it's just a job. Most millennials are past the time where they're picking careers, but for Gen Z, QOL & friends are extremely important, and working nights, weekends and holidays while every one of your friends is posting their YOLO adventures on Twitterbook is a no-go. Can't drink, can't toke, gotta cut your hair and shave. For what? Slave to a job for 30 years? Most are going to pass.

So drop the ATP rule....what's going to happen? Well, remember the airlines HATE GA. Despise it despite the fact that it's given them free pilot training for decades. They're going to clear out every CFI that can fog a mirror, because they don't care about the consequences. And 8 months later the pipeline collapses because there won't be any instructors left to train new pilots. The few people trickling through the system will go right to the regionals and the rest of the system will just sputter to a halt, and we'll be right back to where we are now, except your "for fun" GA pilot will be completely hosed.

This isn't a pilot problem, it's a pay/QOL issue, and that's not going to change any time soon.
 
Richman67 said:
That's not exactly true.

Some majors hired low time pilots in the late 60s, yes. It was for a few years. Most required you have a commercial-multi-instrument. It was pre-deregulation, so airlines had gobs of money to spend on training, and your typical airline course was 3 months long.

Oh, yea, they were hired as Flight Engineers. That meant you got to watch operations from the back seat for a couple years before actually flying.

Almost all those guys were furloughed a few years later during the gas crisis and subsequent recession.

The defacto minimum for your basic commuter job for DECADES was 1500/300, plus or minus a bit. Even during the late 80s and 90s when airline hiring was brisk, and some commuters/regionals had 100% annual turnover. Yet somehow they kept the lights on without going to wet commercial minimums. Why was that? Because of the pot of gold the major airlines represented. Contracts had a full retirement, paid medical, good trips and a decent lifestyle. It was worth the hassle to try to grab the golden ring. IFR 135 mins basically parallel ATP requirements (1,200 vs 1,500), but I don't hear anyone clamoring to pull those down (pro-tip, insurance companies won't allow it).

Today, the airline lifestyle definitely isn't that. Benefits are stripped down, you pay for your own retirement and it's just a job. Most millennials are past the time where they're picking careers, but for Gen Z, QOL & friends are extremely important, and working nights, weekends and holidays while every one of your friends is posting their YOLO adventures on Twitterbook is a no-go. Can't drink, can't toke, gotta cut your hair and shave. For what? Slave to a job for 30 years? Most are going to pass.

So drop the ATP rule....what's going to happen? Well, remember the airlines HATE GA. Despise it despite the fact that it's given them free pilot training for decades. They're going to clear out every CFI that can fog a mirror, because they don't care about the consequences. And 8 months later the pipeline collapses because there won't be any instructors left to train new pilots. The few people trickling through the system will go right to the regionals and the rest of the system will just sputter to a halt, and we'll be right back to where we are now, except your "for fun" GA pilot will be completely hosed.

This isn't a pilot problem, it's a pay/QOL issue, and that's not going to change any time soon.
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There were a small group of guys hired zero time but it was not a large number from what I know. I knew a pilot that was hired with zero time. You are correct that he was hired as a FE. The airline provided all of his training to move off the panel. He worked a thirty year career on the 747. Approximately 10 years in each seat.

The issue I see is pilots can be trained but professionals have to be hired. I don’t think it’s possible to train professionalism. That’s something the individual either has or doses not have in the beginning.

My tenure as a 121 instructor definitely supported that perspective. I had candidates with very low time excel and more experienced fail.

My gut feeling is the majority of airline management can’t wait for autonomous airplanes. They resent professional pilots and love yes men that can manage automation.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
There were a small group of guys hired zero time but it was not a large number from what I know. I knew a pilot that was hired with zero time. You are correct that he was hired as a FE. The airline provided all of his training to move off the panel. He worked a thirty year career on the 747. Approximately 10 years in each seat.

The issue I see is pilots can be trained but professionals have to be hired. I don’t think it’s possible to train professionalism. That’s something the individual either has or doses not have in the beginning.

My tenure as a 121 instructor definitely supported that perspective. I had candidates with very low time excel and more experienced fail.

My gut feeling is the majority of airline management can’t wait for autonomous airplanes. They resent professional pilots and love yes men that can manage automation.
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That’s not a generation thing, quality of life is valuable to me, valuable to my dad, his dad, his dad, etc.

And yes, every one likes to have fun memories, it’s posted to whatever, before it was talked about at the bar, before the shake shops, before that ye old tavern.

Nothing has really changed with workers, I know it’s a talking point on the fake news, divide and conquer, people have not changed much, other than airlines have been dragged down from a luxury to a city bus
 
Jackk said:
That’s not a generation thing, quality of life is valuable to me, valuable to my dad, his dad, his dad, etc.

And yes, every one likes to have fun memories, it’s posted to whatever, before it was talked about at the bar, before the shake shops, before that ye old tavern.

Nothing has really changed with workers, I know it’s a talking point on the fake news, divide and conquer, people have not changed much, other than airlines have been dragged down from a luxury to a city bus
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I agree it is not generational. It is very much an individual personality trait. Plenty of kids in their twenties impressed me while some old enough to be their parent washed out.

I think it is more on the nurture than nature side. Parents have a chance to teach and instill those traits. Once out of the nest it seems to be hard to change the course.
 
Tarheelpilot said:
I think it is more on the nurture than nature side. Parents have a chance to teach and instill those traits.
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Easy point to make is that, in what should be a nurturing situation, many times there is but one parent, and they want to be the child's friend instead of their teacher. My children understood that I could be a friend but I had to be their parent and instructor.
 
KSCessnaDriver said:
The biggest issue, IMO, is the hours from a wet commercial to ATP qualifying mins. I learned a lot flying 135 single pilot before jumping into the 121 world. These new kids just check the box riding around as a CFI in a 172, and then get to fly a jet. They don't develop any real airmanship skill along the way, because the pilot mills don't let them make weather decisions, it is made for them. They get to the jet, and quite frankly, the training programs aren't doing what they need to do. Training gets them a type rating, that's it. They get dumped on the line woefully unprepared for actual line operations.

How do we fix the "shortage", it's not lowering standards. Beyond that, I'm not sure you can. Accept the fact that small cities are going to not have service going forward
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Lowering standards is never the answer!
 
I just retired from one of the “good” jobs. I went out four years early and I still have my health. My company is one of the few left with a pension plus a 401k. However my first airline job was in 1987, the starting pay was $800 a month. $800, let that soak in a little. I had 2400 hours and an aviation degree and I was overjoyed to be sitting in the right seat of the mighty BE99 at Bar Harbor Airlines. Captain upgrade came quickly and I thought $2400 a month was like winning the lottery. I got the call to the big time and poof 33 years literally flew by. I was blessed to fly 30 years in wide bodies and 20+ as a WB Captain. It was a great career but there are drawbacks. It’s very tough on family and health. Waking up in Paris or Hong Kong is great if you can remember where you are. Missing every holiday, birthday, games, plays, anniversaries, etc.

As for lowering standards, flying big jets into challenging airports and conditions requires seasoning. Without that seasoning the captain is in a tough position of mentoring, monitoring, flying, and managing a large aircraft through time and space. Sometimes it feels like you’re alone. I’ve looked at my FO before and seen him lock up, this is rare but it happens.

I am now flying 172s and fishing. I loved my 16,000 hours in the show but I love being with my family especially my grandsons!
 
Whitney said:
Are there any numbers indicating how many people may become pilots who never planned to become airline pilots, but then if a shortage of airline pilots happened, changed their minds, and did so after all?
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I haven’t seen any published numbers, but I will tell you 9 out of 10 low time commercial pilots I’ve met are aiming for regionals. The private charter guys are having to up their pay/benefits to compete.
 
Shuckers86 said:
I just retired from one of the “good” jobs. I went out four years early and I still have my health. My company is one of the few left with a pension plus a 401k. However my first airline job was in 1987, the starting pay was $800 a month. $800, let that soak in a little
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$800/mo in 1987 is $2,035/mo today, or $24,420/yr today [1]. Bar Harbor airlines doesn't exist anymore but I checked another little regional airline, Cape Air, on glassdoor and their average FO pay is $33,000/yr, with the lowest reported as $28,000 [2]. Given that housing prices started exceeding inflation in the 90s (nearly doubling by 2020 in inflation-adjusted dollars as compared to 1987) [3], college costs have exceeded inflation by 200-300% since 1987 [4], average student debt at graduation (in May 2021 dollars) has correspondingly doubled since 1987 [5], and inflation-adjusted out-of-pocket healthcare expenses have increased by 50% since 1987 [6], I would wager your starting salary had much more purchasing power than that of a FO at cape air today.

[1]https://www.usinflationcalculator.com
[2] https://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/Cape-Air-First-Officer-Salaries-E404871_D_KO9,22.htm
[3] https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices/inflation-adjusted-housing-prices/
[4] https://educationdata.org/college-tuition-inflation-rate
[5] https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-debt-by-year
[6] https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-spending-healthcare-changed-time/#Relative contributions to total national health expenditures, 2020
 
AKiss20 said:
$800/mo in 1987 is $2,035/mo today, or $24,420/yr today [1]. Bar Harbor airlines doesn't exist anymore but I checked another little regional airline, Cape Air, on glassdoor and their average FO pay is $33,000/yr, with the lowest reported as $28,000 [2]. Given that housing prices started exceeding inflation in the 90s (nearly doubling by 2020 in inflation-adjusted dollars as compared to 1987) [3], college costs have exceeded inflation by 200-300% since 1987 [4], average student debt at graduation (in May 2021 dollars) has correspondingly doubled since 1987 [5], and inflation-adjusted out-of-pocket healthcare expenses have increased by 50% since 1987 [6], I would wager your starting salary had much more purchasing power than that of a FO at cape air today.

[1]https://www.usinflationcalculator.com
[2] https://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/Cape-Air-First-Officer-Salaries-E404871_D_KO9,22.htm
[3] https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices/inflation-adjusted-housing-prices/
[4] https://educationdata.org/college-tuition-inflation-rate
[5] https://educationdata.org/average-student-loan-debt-by-year
[6] https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-spending-healthcare-changed-time/#Relative contributions to total national health expenditures, 2020
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No doubt inflation has skewed the numbers. I didn’t include that I was moved from base to base. I had a crash pad which wasn’t cheap. My main help came from a wife with a great job at the time. She didn’t understand my job or my goal but she trusted me. I truly enjoyed the journey from student pilot, CFI, 135, and 121. It was fun and eventually even lucrative. The main advice I give guys and gals starting out is: work hard, be honest, remember everybody’s name, enjoy each flight, never stop learning, and never give up on your dream.
 
Shuckers86 said:
No doubt inflation has skewed the numbers. I didn’t include that I was moved from base to base. I had a crash pad which wasn’t cheap. My main help came from a wife with a great job at the time. She didn’t understand my job or my goal but she trusted me. I truly enjoyed the journey from student pilot, CFI, 135, and 121. It was fun and eventually even lucrative. The main advice I give guys and gals starting out is: work hard, be honest, remember everybody’s name, enjoy each flight, never stop learning, and never give up on your dream.
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Do FOs nowadays no longer get moved base to base or have to pay for (now more expensive) crashpads?

I agree with your sentiment/advice, I just want to provide data against this "oh kids these days don't know how easy they have it, look how little money I made back in the day" narrative when, if anything, economic conditions are worse for entry level people today than they were 35 years ago. This is summarized in the fact that millenials only own 4.6% of the national wealth compared to 21% that the baby boomers did at the same age [1]. With Gen Z starting to enter the work force now and representing the majority of entry level positions, I imagine those numbers will be only worse for them.

To be clear, I am not saying that is the narrative you intend to put out, but it is a common one put forth by the older generation.

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/09/millennials-own-less-than-5percent-of-all-us-wealth.html
 
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AKiss20 said:
Do FOs nowadays no longer get moved base to base or have to pay for (now more expensive) crashpads?

I agree with your sentiment/advice, I just want to provide data against this "oh kids these days don't know how easy they have it, look how little money I made back in the day" narrative when, if anything, economic conditions are worse for entry level people today than they were 35 years ago. This is summarized in the fact that millenials only own 4.6% of the national wealth compared to 21% that the baby boomers did at the same age [1]. With Gen Z starting to enter the work force now and representing the majority of entry level positions, I imagine those numbers will be only worse for them.

To be clear, I am not saying that is the narrative you intend to put out, but it is a common one put forth by the older generation.

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/09/millennials-own-less-than-5percent-of-all-us-wealth.html
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I have never been a “get off my lawn guy!”. I love seeing the passion in this generation’s young pilots. I believe we all have an obligation to help the people behind us building time. The folks I’ve mentored range from a kid I took flying last for his first flight, to a private pilot, an FO at Delta, all the way to an MD11 captain at FedEx. I loved my bumpy, interesting path. I appreciate you showing that it’s still not the easiest career path no matter when a particular pilot begins flying, pilot shortage or not. As always Fly Safely!
 
Tarheelpilot said:
I agree it is not generational. It is very much an individual personality trait. Plenty of kids in their twenties impressed me while some old enough to be their parent washed out.

I think it is more on the nurture than nature side. Parents have a chance to teach and instill those traits. Once out of the nest it seems to be hard to change the course.
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What trait?

No one in their right mind wants a bad quality of life and to not make memories with family and friends, and share those memories with other friends and family.

 
Katamarino said:
As said above, it's a pay shortage.

I could go and work for an airline tomorrow if the pay made sense.
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That's nothing new. I never looked at a flying job (or flying - period) when I first got out of college. A fresh BSEE earned far more. Of course, now nobody would even consider me, I'm 70. :) And I have the best job I've ever had - I'm retired.
 
Might be QOL and money but I still know a bunch on guys going from better pay in the military to start at the regionals. I could probably hack regional life but got a couple friends flying for Atlas and Kalitta. No way I could put up with that type of schedule. One said the lifestyle becomes “zombie like.”

Everyone is hurting though. Because of RTAG and finally the retirement of the Vietnam guys, there’s a shortage in the rotor world as well. Plenty of 500 hr piston tour guys but not enough 2,000 hr turbine ones. Got two openings at my base and can’t find replacements. I’m done doing overtime! :D
 
Cutting the airline's CEO salary, down to what they pay their employees on average, and then the chump change pay might not seem so bad.
But while some make millions, and others are making crap, it sure doesn't seem fair.
 
Jackk said:
What trait?

No one in their right mind wants a bad quality of life and to not make memories with family and friends, and share those memories with other friends and family.

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Professionalism.

It’s a bad quality of life to you. Who are you to decide for me or my family?
 
Tarheelpilot said:
Professionalism.

It’s a bad quality of life to you. Who are you to decide for me or my family?
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Regarding the bolded, I think y'all are talking past each other. The respondent was commenting to the notion that a desire for a homesteading friendly schedule before Social security age is neither a "generational" predilection, nor a 'trait' that requires targeted inculcation by "responsible" parents. It appears you were commenting on work ethic potato of pilots you presumably work with, when bringing up that whole trait teaching thing. I think the respondent didn't recognize that's what you were talking about when he responded with "what trait?". Two different topics it appears. cheers.
 
hindsight2020 said:
Regarding the bolded, I think y'all are talking past each other. The respondent was commenting to the notion that a desire for a homesteading friendly schedule before Social security age is neither a "generational" predilection, nor a 'trait' that requires targeted inculcation by "responsible" parents. It appears you were commenting on work ethic potato of pilots you presumably work with, when bringing up that whole trait teaching thing. I think the respondent didn't recognize that's what you were talking about when he responded with "what trait?". Two different topics it appears. cheers.
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I agree. But only one of us was rude about it…
 
Tarheelpilot said:
Professionalism.

It’s a bad quality of life to you. Who are you to decide for me or my family?
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Professionalism isn’t a quality of life, it’s a trait, or being raised right, but not a quality of life.
 
Jackk said:
Professionalism isn’t a quality of life, it’s a trait, or being raised right, but not a quality of life.
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Umm… I never said it was quality of life relevant.

edit:
I went back and reviewed your posts in our exchange and to be honest it is hard to decipher what it is you’re trying to say. So it’s almost a guarantee that my responses make no sense to you because I honestly don’t know what your point is now.
 
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