How can this happen?

Becky said:
Some say we must always have some fear when we fly, that it keeps us safer. For me, the fear is not counterbalanced by enjoyment.
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I too have seen the claim that fear is a safety enhancer - and has been applied to many endeavors. Some have said we must always have some fear when we go boating, swimming, driving, and so on because it keeps us safer.

I say fear is a danger itself and pointless (and kills the joy in the endeavor.) I suspect that some who promote "fear" are really intending to promote a clinical (emotionless) application of cautionary actions. That is the mental attitude I strive for.
 
Fear causes hesitation, hesitation causes your worst fears to come true. Cheesy ,ovie, but has the best action lines.
 
There are two types of people:

1. Those that have died.

2. Those that will die.

Aside from that, you have some level of control over how and when #2 happens. Yes I've done #1 on a motorcycle, but that didn't need to happen. It was competely, totally avoidable. I don't intend on making the same mistake in an airplane.
 
Sac Arrow said:
There are two types of people:

1. Those that have died.

2. Those that will die.

Aside from that, you have some level of control over how and when #2 happens. Yes I've done #1 on a motorcycle, but that didn't need to happen. It was competely, totally avoidable. I don't intend on making the same mistake in an airplane.
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Was that in a past life?
 
Fearless Tower said:
Suggest you read Fate is the Hunter if you haven't already.

It may not answer your questions but may give you some insight/perspective on the issue that seems to bother you.
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My first thought also.
Gann wasn't exactly a fatalist, but he had seen many very good pilots die with no logical explanation or by damned bad luck with weather or equipment, and had escaped the same fate numerous times by miraculous chance (my favorite is the tale about the missing elevator hinge bolt). So he just had to shrug and accept that experience is not any protection, in and of itself.

All you can do to improve your chances is to prepare properly, know the aircraft, and put safety above all else.
 
N521MA said:
Okay, you can ***** slap me later, but I still want a legit explanation, not just "things happen".

Per NTSB reports, there are ton of people that have unfortunate flights and leave our world, hopefully for a better place; I can understand that and it does happen everyday for whatever the reasons are. What I am personally struggling with is to understand how this stuff happens to a CFI(I) with ton of other ratings and most importantly I am talking specifically a person that doesn't just have multiple ratings and flies occasionally, but actually flies for 8 to 12 hours almost everyday. Furthermore, we are not going into HP planes or covering IMC condition - simple daily trainers like Warriors and 172s at CAVU conditions, no students on flight, CFI flying solo and still manages to get wiped out.

How is this even possible? What chance does the rest of our community have? I don't want to sound paranoid or scared, which I am in a way, but at the same time I am very active when it comes to activity. I do extreme skiing, ride all kinds of Motorcycles, drive insanely fast cars but also very focused on controlling and managing my risk as I am not suicidal and prefer to see another day ;)

button line, when I get on the motorcycle - I know there are two types of riders 1. Those that have been down 2. Those that will go down. I happen to joined the #1 crowd few times already and trust me its no fun to be put back together... But we're talking motorcycles .... it is something I expect and knew this will happen sooner or later. Now... When I see CFII crash and burn because he flew into terrain (of every kind) - what chance do we, as weekend warrior have to see another day??? Yes I know CFII are not Gods and human too that do make errors as all of us, but given their experience and mine, for example, from a risk factor prospective I should not be even on a ramp standing next to an airplane, forget flying it ....

Perhaps there is no explanation. We do what we love and pray to God that he lets us do it once more. Perhaps you have a different opinion.
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In direct response to your question, complacency and over-confidence do in a lot of pilots that have multiple ratings and fly regularly. You would also expect to see a large number of incidents among the pilot population that flies a lot of hours. Percentage-wise, the rate will be lower but number-wise, it will be higher.

I believe the accident rates disfavor mid-time pilots. The newer pilots are cautious and the high-time pilots are wise. The mid-range pilots might think they can get away with bold and you know what they say about old and bold. Remember that a lot of those pilots you refer to are building hours and would be solidly mid-range.

What this says to me is that flying has its risks and can be intolerant of faults in human nature like complacency, laziness, etc.

So what chance do you have? An excellent one if you maintain your machine and your skills and do not fall into bad habits. Much safer than that motorcycle or those other activities you engage in.
 
I regularly commute (fly) from the Bay Area to the Central Valley, and I feel much safer in the air than when I'm in a car. Every time I drive the I-80 or the I-5 corridor, I see at least two or three gnarly accidents a week, and usually a fatality every month. In a given year, I can't count how many close calls I've had on the freeway, vs. virtually none in the air that would have compromized my safety.
 
N521MA said:
For those that wanted to see actual reports to justify my vague question:

Over 6000 hours
Pilatus
Ratings

http://www.ntsb.gov/aviationquery/brief.aspx?ev_id=20130116X83524&key=1
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Too early to say. Might've been icing (note the surface temp). Since he only went 5 miles on the runway heading he might've had the fuel selector in the wrong position. No fire on impact, maybe he forgot to fill up?

Agree that it is mysterious. But I would point out that he was flying for a job, transporting medical specimens, not for kicks. Would you launch in those conditions?
 
N521MA said:
For those that wanted to see actual reports to justify my vague question:

Over 6000 hours
Pilatus
Ratings

http://www.ntsb.gov/aviationquery/brief.aspx?ev_id=20130116X83524&key=1
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Who knows? Just from reading the preliminary my off the cuff guess would be a combination of icing and pilot distraction. That would be a complete guess though. Temp on the ground was 4C, dew point 3C and clouds... that means up where he was it was wet and right at freezing. Bad juju. Maybe he didn't recognize the icing danger until it was too late for deice to do any good. Maybe he got distracted with something (avionics or whatever) and didn't recognize ice or a loss of attitude control. No one is around to tell the tale, so we may never know.

Not necessarily related to this report, but if you're asking how an experienced, competent pilot can get distracted or forget important things -- refer to the sign I have tacked up on the wall of my garage/airplane factory, stolen from someone else's sig line:

"Smart people do dumb things all the time. I know, I've seen me do 'em."
 
N521MA said:
For those that wanted to see actual reports to justify my vague question:

Over 6000 hours
Pilatus
Ratings

http://www.ntsb.gov/aviationquery/brief.aspx?ev_id=20130116X83524&key=1
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Mechanical failure of some sort a few minutes after takeoff seems most likely. Normal heading would be about 047 magnetic and impact site is reported 5 miles in that direction from takeoff airport (just past town of Burlington, if I understand the report); heading at impact was about 140. So the pilot appears to have turned to the right before impact; perhaps attempting a turn back. IMC conditions. The few clues reported so far suggest a case of bad luck rather than an experienced pilot screwing up. There are some times when all the experience in the world will do you no good, and the above accident appears to be one of them.
 
N521MA said:
For those that wanted to see actual reports to justify my vague question:

Over 6000 hours
Pilatus
Ratings

http://www.ntsb.gov/aviationquery/brief.aspx?ev_id=20130116X83524&key=1
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I think the major difference is that he was flying in a commercial cargo operation. Operations of that sort have MUCH more get-there pressure than you ever will, so pilots will lean strongly towards the go rather than the no-go. I can see being that guy and departing in those conditions in that airplane in that situation, but I sure as hell wouldn't be departing in the dark, IMC, and icing conditions for fun. :no:
 
As others have said, I think the human factor can bite any of us at anytime, especially if we become complacent.

That said, I study, practice and always put safety above pleasure or get-there-itis. I take this flying stuff very seriously and never take shortcuts but there is a certain amount of risk that I accept.

Never rode a motorcycle, never went skiing or bungee jumping. However, if I thought that I could get out of this alive, I'd probably never go flying:D.
 
GCA319 said:
That's a big one. One of the most dangerous points in a pilot's career is from about 1,500 hours up to 5,000 or so.
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But this guy had 6,000 hours. Cracks me up, dead pilots are always either inexperienced or complacent. Anybody can die in an airplane by their own hand, accept it or take up bowling.
 
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One of the most important quotes ever from "Air Crash Investigations" (also called "Mayday" sometimes), which should all be required viewing for private pilots, was from an NTSB investigator. He said "A pilot is always learning. If you ever stop learning, you need to get out of it because it's going to hurt you."
 
flyingcheesehead said:
I think the major difference is that he was flying in a commercial cargo operation. Operations of that sort have MUCH more get-there pressure than you ever will, so pilots will lean strongly towards the go rather than the no-go. I can see being that guy and departing in those conditions in that airplane in that situation, but I sure as hell wouldn't be departing in the dark, IMC, and icing conditions for fun. :no:
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I'm local and on the day of this crash, I had a look at the weather. No demons in the clouds this day. It should have been an easy departure.

I'm sure it was some kind of failure or the pilot had a medical problem.
 
GCA319 said:
That's a big one. One of the most dangerous points in a pilot's career is from about 1,500 hours up to 5,000 or so.
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AFaIK for the pilots who make it into the statistics it's their last hour that's the most dangerous.

But seriously, none of the analyses I've ever seen on the issue of pilot hours vs accident rates does a decent job of factoring in the distribution of flight hours over the pilot population. If 75% of the pilots flying today have less than 200 hrs, it should come as no surprise that 75% of the accidents happen to pilots with less than 200 hrs. As to the 1500-5000 hr range, that's a pretty wide range and therefore should account for a fairly large segment of the pilot population. Also given those numbers I'll bet said statistic (if it's anywhere near realistic) is about airline pilots and in that case it might make some sense since 1500-5000 could represent "inexperienced" pilots in that occupation.
 
We had a neighbor about 10 years ago who slipped in the shower, hit her head, and died from a subsequent blood clot. She was 65 years old at the time and in excellent health. Presumably she had taken a shower every day for some 60 years.

I'm struggling to understand how this can happen to someone so experienced. What chance does a college student have, trying to shower with only ~10 years experience? Are we all doomed?
 
JHW said:
We had a neighbor about 10 years ago who slipped in the shower, hit her head, and died from a subsequent blood clot. She was 65 years old at the time and in excellent health. Presumably she had taken a shower every day for some 60 years.

I'm struggling to understand how this can happen to someone so experienced. What chance does a college student have, trying to shower with only ~10 years experience? Are we all doomed?
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I believe we are talking about judgement here mostly, not footing.
 
JHW said:
are we? re-read the OP again. I read it as someone trying to rationalize their irrational anxiety.
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I agree with what you're saying, however you don't see people dying in showers every day. Just open google on almost any day and type in yesterdays date with a word small plane crashed - I bet 9/10 times you will see a small plane crash. And yes, people do die every day but some how this whole thing about plane is safest type of transport? I think I have same chance with my Harley or a Goldwing ;)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 2
 
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N521MA said:
I agree with what you're saying, however you don't see people dying in showers every day. Just open google on almost any day and type in yesterdays date with a word small plane crashed - I bet 9/10 times you will see a small plane crash. And yes, people do die every day but some how this whole thing about plane is safest type of transport? I think I have same chance with my Harley or a Goldwing ;)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 2
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au contraire, I'd bet that bathtubs kill substantially more americans than do airplanes.
 
JHW said:
are we? re-read the OP again. I read it as someone trying to rationalize their irrational anxiety.
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Maybe but the underlying current of the thread that I read is that in the majority of times, fatal aviation accidents are not usually caused by a momentary lapse of attention or motor skills but rather lapses in judgement including perhaps over-reliance on perceived skills and experience which are found to be wanting in the face of weather, the laws of gravity and immovable earth. To see experienced pilots with advanced training falling prey to stupid ****e makes more than one pilot place palm to forehead and perhaps evaluate whether he himself might be tempted to do the same especially when you haven't reached the level that others would call "experienced."
 
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alaskaflyer said:
To see experienced pilots with advanced training falling prey to stupid ****e makes more than one pilot place palm to forehead and perhaps evaluate whether he himself might be tempted to do the same especially when you haven't reached the level that others would call "experienced."
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Yes. Experienced pilots can make mistakes. Try to learn from others' mistakes and don't repeat them.

Life is full of movies, stories, songs, and NTSB reports about the risks of making mistakes. In general, it's tough to do anything fun or worthwhile without taking the risk of something bad happening. You (i.e., the op) gotta decide for yourself if it's worth it.
 
Jim_R said:
Yes. Experienced pilots can make mistakes. Try to learn from others' mistakes and don't repeat them.

Life is full of movies, stories, songs, and NTSB reports about the risks of making mistakes. In general, it's tough to do anything fun or worthwhile without taking the risk of something bad happening. You (i.e., the op) gotta decide for yourself if it's worth it.
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That just about raps it up! Manage risk without being reckless.
 
steingar said:
First, there is nothing at all inevitable about motorcycle crashes. Keep good situational awareness and keep off unmaneuverable bikes and you can ride crash free in to a ripe old age. A quarter century for me. Not that it can't happen, but it isn't necessarily going to.

Murphy can bite anyone at any time. Any of us can make a mistake in judgement. Any of us can wind up at the bottom of a smoking crater. That's why they call it dangerous.
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I wiped out on my Honda Shadow my 4th time riding it. Broken elbow, haven't rode in 2 yrs since.:dunno:
 
DaleB said:
I include the mechanic thing because I remember one accident report where the A&P failed to properly service & lube the strut attach bolt on a 172. It corroded through and a wing snapped off in flight. Not the pilot's fault; that's not an item you'd reasonably expect to check on preflight. But it's not like it's a common occurrence, either.
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I'd like the know the whole story on that one. Have you ever seen those bolts? They're huge, probably ten times stronger than they'd ever need to be. The aluminum strut fork would break first. I bet the airplane had extremely serious corrosion issues that should have sent it to the scrapyard, not signed off as airworthy.

I would far more expect structural failures in airplanes like the 172 to include the forward stabilizer spar ( it cracks through the center lightening hole, from guys pushing the tail down), the aft doorposts (all of them crack, eventually, at the bottom post/gear box junction), failed rudder hinges (often found cracked), or an engine that comes off when the structure in the hat section aft of the firewall fails (hard landings, often from flight training, cracks them). There are many areas far weaker than those strut bolts.

Dan
 
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Bad things sometimes happen to good people. We can all say that this will never happen to me but it does or someone we knew..

So why do pilots continue to run out of gas? Why CFIT? Why VFR into IMC? Almost everday a GA aircraft falls out of the sky. I can't make this stuff up, browse the NTSB reports....
 
CT Arrow said:
Bad things sometimes happen to good people. We can all say that this will never happen to me but it does or someone we knew..

So why do pilots continue to run out of gas? Why CFIT? Why VFR into IMC? Almost everday a GA aircraft falls out of the sky. I can't make this stuff up, browse the NTSB reports....
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That is exactly what I am talking about! Thank you.



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