Thanks for proving my point. A lot of the quote above is speculation by the poster, or speculation by fringe writers, yet it is being taken as fact. A lot is non-sequitur to electric aircraft.
The USA has become "Can't do". I doubt we'll go to the moon again, much less to mars. The Chinese, maybe the Indians, will.
Speculation? Fringe? The preponderance of what I posted is fact, not opinion or speculation. The destruction of existing power generation capacity, and the details I put forth, are fact. The difficulties of scaling the new "green" generation system are substantial, and predictions it will replace all petroleum fueled power plants in ten years, a common talking point, are speculation in the extreme.
Talking points about an imminent exponential breakthrough in battery technology abound, yet it is always just beyond our grasp. The disastrous effects of cobalt mining on the environment and children of the Congo are well documented, but conveniently ignored. Whatever elements provide the basis for future batteries will have considerable environmental effects, based upon the projected volume of manufacture. Scaling production to anticipated demand exceeds the realistic limits of finance, engineering, and construction, talk of a WWII sized commitment aside. What's to be built isn't even known yet.
This is directly relevant to electric vehicles of all kinds, not just aircraft. Electric vehicle sales projections recently issued by VW, GM, and Ford indicate a substantial demand will be placed on the world's power grids in ten years. This is the same grid that killed 85 people and destroyed Paradise, CA, and recently produced an hour's hours long blackout in NYC.
In the US alone, repairing known problems and modernizing the electrical distribution system nationwide has a price tag in the hundreds of billions. Who is going to pay for the upgrades needed due to the demand from charging electric vehicles?
But we can talk about electric aircraft. As I said previously, claims by OXIS regarding the imminent production of LiS batteries for aircraft are not supported by facts. Every press release they have made about LiS batteries repeat the same half truths, using shaded language designed to conceal the fact they have only produced a handful of small pouch batteries and that their technology, nor anyone else's, has "solved the polysulfide problem" as you stated.
Statements like this one from Uber border on complete nonsense.
Uber is developing shared air transportation—planned for 2023—between suburbs and cities, and ultimately within cities. We’re working with our Elevate Network partners to launch fleets of small, electric VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft in Dallas, Los Angeles, and a to-be-announced international market.
How do you suppose this will happen in the next 36 months, considering the aircraft described doesn't exist? The first conforming prototype of the Cirrus jet flew in March 2014, and FAA certification was awarded in October 2016.
If it took an experienced manufacturer 2½ years to achieve certification of a product that shared significant construction techniques with a 15 year old design, how are these clean sheet design VTOL aircraft going to be carrying revenue passengers by 2023? What are the chances the imposition of these magic flying machines on the congested airspace of LA and Dallas will be absorbed without years of congressional and bureaucratic wrangling? I think we all know the answer to these questions.
The idea of an electric GA aircraft is nice, but who is going to buy them? Sales of piston singles are at death's door. What difference is an electric motor going to make in that market, particularly since it can't replicate the performance of a piston engine and 80 gallons of 100LL?
The answer, according to aviation forums, is the training market. Considering the fact that sales of 172s and PA-28s to training schools are moribund during what is supposedly an increasing revenue pilot shortage, what is going to motivate aviation academies to purchase planes that cost as much or more? Fuel cost? That cannot be determined today or in the foreseeable future.
The cost and dispatch rate of future electric trainers is currently a complete unknown, because the batteries which will power this supposed new generation of trainers don't exist. The size and weight of the power system are yet to be determined, as are the electronics specific to the batteries that haven't been invented yet. Once again, certification of these designs will take years.
Remember that ferry you mentioned that accepts a 10.5 MW charge? Did you notice the charging voltage was 10.5 kV? Somehow I can't envision a kilovolt potential charging cord being dragged across the ramp and connected to an e172, much less the challenges of housing the energy of a high voltage propulsion system behind .032 aluminum.
The amount of inaccurate and manufactured information about electric power and vehicles, especially aircraft, being "taken as fact" is running neck and neck with your so-called "fringe" speculation. Call Harbour Air and ask them when you can book a ride in a DHC-2 powered by batteries and an electric motor.
While I'm sure all of the predictions of a sunny carbon free electric future will happen someday, the current absence of sober analytical evaluation and abundance of uneducated optimism will not result in its appearance anytime soon.