Does Ukraine Have the Capacity for a Doolittle Raid.

No training accidents…train like you fight…dead is dead…
 
kyleb said:
That's quite the alternate universe, but that's where Putin seems to live.
Click to expand...
You mean the universe where Harry Potter convinced the west to make Russia irrelevent?
 
Skinnybird said:
You mean the universe where Harry Potter convinced the west to make Russia irrelevent?
Click to expand...

Strangely, I thought it was Putin and the oligarchs who made Russia a pariah by killing off dissenting opinions and political opposition, shutting down anything that verged on free press, stealing everything in sight, plus a thousand other anti-social behaviors?
 
NoHeat said:
Attacking a target not on their own soil can change the narrative of being purely defensive, which could matter especially for some of the countries that are supplying them, in a way that has the potential to backfire.

It can also reduce Russia’s inhibition to use nuclear weapons, since their longstanding policy is to use them if Russian territory is attacked.
Click to expand...
It could, so could targeting civilians with artillery and missiles and now committing genocide.
 
kyleb said:
Strangely, I thought it was Putin and the oligarchs who made Russia a pariah by killing off dissenting opinions and political opposition, shutting down anything that verged on free press, stealing everything in sight, plus a thousand other anti-social behaviors?
Click to expand...

The russian soldiers are stealing dishwashers, washing machines, TVs... the avg russian is rather poor, especially in the rural areas where they seem to get all their soldiers. They're amazed at the wealth of the avg Ukrainian, and are looting as they go. Or, as they retreat.
 
UngaWunga said:
The russian soldiers are stealing dishwashers, washing machines, TVs... the avg russian is rather poor, especially in the rural areas where they seem to get all their soldiers. They're amazed at the wealth of the avg Ukrainian, and are looting as they go. Or, as they retreat.
Click to expand...

One of the stories I read was that everyone with a pot to pee in buys his/her way out of the Russian army, so you're left with the dregs of society. Those folks probably don't have the scruples to bypass a good opportunity to loot as they retreat.
 
"Paper Skies," when the Soviet Navy lost 16 Admirals in the crash of a single Tu 104 (7 Feb 81) due to "loot" being loaded outside CG limits
 
Skinnybird said:
"Paper Skies," when the Soviet Navy lost 16 Admirals in the crash of a single Tu 104 (7 Feb 81) due to "loot" being loaded outside CG limits
Click to expand...

That is an interesting video. Like an "Air Disasters" episode, Soviet style.

Aircraft loading was bad as you mentioned, and external pressures from the high-ranking passengers caused the pilots to fly anyway. In short, the A and E of PAVE, but it's interesting because of how the A and E were peculiar to the Soviet Union.
 
Just occurred to me. Maybe they don’t have the capacity to do a Doolittle raid, but with some commercial drones and some tin foil, they could have a lot of fun with Russia’s air defense warning system.
 
They don’t.

Perhaps it would be a really bad idea to do “fun” things like trying to overload or spoof their early warning systems. PVO Strany and Russian air defenses are already on edge, no doubt their Strategic Rocket Forces are living at an increased state of readiness. It’s not the 80’s anymore; it doesn’t take 12 hours to fuel their missiles. They’re all solid fueled now. The best outcome for the rest of the world is to defuse in as much as possible, and reach a diplomatic solution.

No, I’m not a snow flake or a Putin apologist. He’s a dick. I spent many years pointed at Ivan on alert in B52’s and B1’s. But there are no grownups in charge anymore. It would be too easy for a careless or misintentioned off-the-cuff statement to escalate first into an “oh yea, hold my vodka and watch this!” moment, and then get really bad really fast..

putin still has 6000 nukes. That really does change the calculus.
 
Last edited:
We can't live in fear about it. Eventually we need to sort out a way to rid them of their long range capability. But until that time, we can still push to reduce their conventional capacity. If I understand it right, the British are sending modern weapons to help. There's no reason we couldn't do the same thing, except lack of courage. I get that - we don't have the same people in place that we did during the height of the cold war. The Brits have much higher risk than we do, and much less capability to retaliate.
 
orca64 said:
Putin still has 6000 nukes. That really does change the calculus.
Click to expand...

If you’ve spent time as part of the nuclear triad then you know it really doesn’t. The US strategy for decades has been that the use of any nuke will be met in kindness, MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction. That makes any use of nuclear weapons a losing move and why Russia has not nuked anybody in the past 70 years - they believe we will make them pay for it. As long as they keep believing it, we are safe. As soon as Russia believes we will balk at the use of nuclear weapons, they will execute their first strike and they do have War plans with first strikes in them. It is the knowledge they won’t survive the response that keeps it from happening.

BTW, Britain has the same strategy and they have bombers and missile subs available, possibly land based missiles too.
 
bflynn said:
If you’ve spent time as part of the nuclear triad then you know it really doesn’t. The US strategy for decades has been that the use of any nuke will be met in kindness, MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction. That makes any use of nuclear weapons a losing move and why Russia has not nuked anybody in the past 70 years - they believe we will make them pay for it. As long as they keep believing it, we are safe. As soon as Russia believes we will balk at the use of nuclear weapons, they will execute their first strike and they do have War plans with first strikes in them. It is the knowledge they won’t survive the response that keeps it from happening.
Click to expand...

You assume that they fear and respect the seventh grade student council.

They do not, nor do the Chinese, the Iranians, the North Koreans the….
 
orca64 said:
You assume that they fear and respect the seventh grade student council.

They do not, nor do the Chinese, the Iranians, the North Koreans the….
Click to expand...

I assume they fear and respect the damage a retaliatory strike will do. Putin is too vain to imagine a world where he dies in a nuclear counter strike that destroys Russia.

I know they do BECAUSE Russia has first strike war plans and they don’t use them.

I don’t know what you mean by seventh grade student council, unless it is code talk for politics.
 
Nuclear weapons are only a deterrent in hands of a government with the will to use them. Period.
 
If you’re suggesting our government does not, then you’d better start digging the bomb shelter in your back yard. As soon as Russia believes that, it’s the end of the world.
 
bflynn said:
If you’re suggesting our government does not, then you’d better start digging the bomb shelter in your back yard. As soon as Russia believes that, it’s the end of the world.
Click to expand...


If our government did, they’d be less worried about “antagonizing” Putin.

And he’d be worried about antagonizing us.
 
Quite frankly, I worry more about the tactical variety vs. the strategic variety of nuke. Of those 6000 Putin has at his disposal, by far the majority are low yield, battlefield variety. Why have so many if you plan not to use them to "escalate to de-escalate"?

Has anyone heard a good plan for a response to a tactical nuke that doesn't end with a strategic exchange?

Me neither.
 
bflynn said:
If you’ve spent time as part of the nuclear triad then you know it really doesn’t. The US strategy for decades has been that the use of any nuke will be met in kindness, MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction. That makes any use of nuclear weapons a losing move and why Russia has not nuked anybody in the past 70 years - they believe we will make them pay for it. As long as they keep believing it, we are safe. As soon as Russia believes we will balk at the use of nuclear weapons, they will execute their first strike and they do have War plans with first strikes in them. It is the knowledge they won’t survive the response that keeps it from happening.

BTW, Britain has the same strategy and they have bombers and missile subs available, possibly land based missiles too.
Click to expand...

But you can’t compare Putin’s regime to past regimes. Yeah, the people of Russia don’t want mutual destruction but you can bet Putin believes he and his regime will survive it.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...r-command-bunker-and-says-its-almost-complete

Everyone has been ignoring Russias strategic arsenal advancements in the past 10-15 years. Now it’s come to a head and recent rumors of Putin having cancer? You’ve got someone in power who’s obviously not stable. Even before the evasion, a nuclear exchange is more likely today than at anytime in Cold War history.
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment...ica-russia-ukraine-nuclear-war-130354918.html

“We’re setting up a war machine that acts faster than the ability of the men to control it…” Gen Black
 
So you suggest that Putin doesn't care about his legacy and is willing to see it turned into black glass because...??? I don't see what his motivation could be to destroy Russia.

If a nuclear exchange is more possible, it would be cause leadership has not strongly reiterated US policy. Wars happen because someone gets the idea that everyone around them is weak and they can take advantage of that. In fact, where you see war, you will see an assumption of a weak opponent. Do you think if Putin had known what kind of fight Ukraine would put up that he would attacked?
 
On January 12, 1950 the U.S. Secretary of State, Dean Atkinson, said in a speech to the National Press Club: "The defensive perimeter of the United States in Asia runs along the Aleutians to Japan and then to the Ryukyus.”

That definition left South Korea outside of the U.S. defense perimeter.

Perhaps it was simple coincidence, but on June 25, 1950, North Korea-- with Soviet and Chinese assistance-- invaded the south starting the Korean War in which 36,519 Americans died.
 
bflynn said:
So you suggest that Putin doesn't care about his legacy and is willing to see it turned into black glass because...??? I don't see what his motivation could be to destroy Russia.

If a nuclear exchange is more possible, it would be cause leadership has not strongly reiterated US policy. Wars happen because someone gets the idea that everyone around them is weak and they can take advantage of that. In fact, where you see war, you will see an assumption of a weak opponent. Do you think if Putin had known what kind of fight Ukraine would put up that he would attacked?
Click to expand...

I think that’s a definite possibility. A lot analysts that have known him and studied him have stated before, don’t corner him and give him no way out. They use the analogy of him cornering a rat as a child and the rat attacked him. That’s Putin in a nutshell.

Also, when he leaves office, what does he have to look forward to? Getting arrested for war crimes. Or having his billions he’s obtained illegally taken from him.

His actions right now seem irrational but the warning signs have been there for years. He’s stated his case many times of NATO expansion, anti-Russian propaganda from the West, Poland missiles, and his belief in former Soviet borders. He’s a hardcore nationalist that believes in a one Russia with him leading with an iron fist. His recent actions of suppression of free speech reflect all this. Basically a delusional, corrupt, dictator in charge there…a well spoken one though I’ll give him that.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-nuclear-football-funeral-b2054647.html
 
bflynn said:
If you’re suggesting our government does not, then you’d better start digging the bomb shelter in your back yard. As soon as Russia believes that, it’s the end of the world.
Click to expand...

“His greatest offense had been to accept the world in which he found himself as normal, rational and right.” Aldous Huxley
 
Velocity173 said:
I think that’s a definite possibility. A lot analysts that have known him and studied him have stated before, don’t corner him and give him no way out. They use the analogy of him cornering a rat as a child and the rat attacked him. That’s Putin in a nutshell.

Also, when he leaves office, what does he have to look forward to? Getting arrested for war crimes. Or having his billions he’s obtained illegally taken from him.

His actions right now seem irrational but the warning signs have been there for years. He’s stated his case many times of NATO expansion, anti-Russian propaganda from the West, Poland missiles, and his belief in former Soviet borders. He’s a hardcore nationalist that believes in a one Russia with him leading with an iron fist. His recent actions of suppression of free speech reflect all this. Basically a delusional, corrupt, dictator in charge there…a well spoken one though I’ll give him that.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/putin-nuclear-football-funeral-b2054647.html
Click to expand...

I think that sums it up nicely. I actually had respect for Putin for quite some time. Now not no more.
 
Velocity173 said:
...don’t corner him and give him no way out.
Click to expand...


I'd rephrase that as "Don't corner him and not take him out."

It would be foolhardy to box him in without being willing to finish the job. Just giving him a way out will not turn him into a friend. He'll be an enemy who's been given an opportunity to strike back.
 
Half Fast said:
I'd rephrase that as "Don't corner him and not take him out."

It would be foolhardy to box him in without being willing to finish the job.
Click to expand...

That was my thought when Velocity173 used the rat analog.

Many countries have made such errors when trying to be nice about war.
 
Sac Arrow said:
I think that sums it up nicely. I actually had respect for Putin for quite some time. Now not no more.
Click to expand...

Well he helped pull his country out of a horrible economy following the fall of communism but as a leader, he’s corrupt to the bone and is ruthless about staying in power.

I will say this, I’ve watched a lot of interviews in recent years with him. Whether it be on a world stage type “town hall” Q&A or a one on one, he’s eloquent and always prepared. I don’t know of any other world leader that can field questions off the cuff and has a well informed answered with data backing it up. I’ve seen him answer questions and give examples of American historical events that relate to his rationale. I’d be willing to bet he knows more about American history than most Americans do. No doubt his time in the KGB is attributed to that. Probably spent a good part of his career studying the ways of his “enemy.”
 
Last edited:
This was all predictable. At the end of the cold war, we let our army be reduced in size, capability and focus to that of colonial occupation force. With the economy of Russia falling apart, and the edges breaking off to economic prosperity, rather than build up NATO, we let it mostly languish. Because we're greedy, and short sighted. So a nut goes into power, starts to believe his own rhetoric, and we have another little guy trying to take over Europe again. If we'd let Ukraine in to NATO years ago, none of this stuff would have happened.

I don't know how it is going to end, but if we have any sense we'll figure out how to disarm the Russians for the next 100 years. We have enough weirdness going on in the mideast and Asia to have to worry about this garbage, too.
 
Albany Tom said:
This was all predictable. At the end of the cold war, we let our army be reduced in size, capability and focus to that of colonial occupation force.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, a stupid song by John Lennon became the anthem of an entire generation in the West, while nationalistic autocrats elsewhere in the world rubbed their hands together.
 
Pilawt said:
Unfortunately, a stupid song by John Lennon became the anthem of an entire generation in the West, while nationalistic autocrats elsewhere in the world rubbed their hands together.
Click to expand...
"Bang! Bang! Maxwell's silver hammer
Came down upon his head
Clang! Clang! Maxwell's silver hammer
Made sure that he was dead
Wo-wo-wo-woh

Silver hammer...man"

John was always much better with Paul...
 
Half Fast said:
We were too busy visualizing whirled peas to spend any effort creating it.
Click to expand...
I think we tried, but the rest of the world doesn't necessarily like our recipe for whirled peas.

Not even really off topic at this point, but a few months ago in London I had the opportunity to try mushy peas. They were quite good, and I'm looking forward to having them again next week when I'm back there. I've no idea why they haven't caught on in the US.
 
DaleB said:
I think we tried, but the rest of the world doesn't necessarily like our recipe for whirled peas.

Not even really off topic at this point, but a few months ago in London I had the opportunity to try mushy peas. They were quite good, and I'm looking forward to having them again next week when I'm back there. I've no idea why they haven't caught on in the US.
Click to expand...
Naw, we already have these ...

 
Pilawt said:
A well-known public figure was recently mocked for saying Putin was smart. Putin is indeed very smart. He is also very evil. That's a bad combination.
Click to expand...

That wasn't the context. The context was that the public figure said that Putin's plan for a false flag operation in the Eastern provinces that would provide cover for an invasion of Russian troops in order to counter the contrived threat to Russian speakers there was a "brilliant strategy". That was the object of the mockery. as it turns out, deservedly so.

I have never heard anyone deny Putin is smart.
 
Pilawt said:
Unfortunately, a stupid song by John Lennon became the anthem of an entire generation in the West, while nationalistic autocrats elsewhere in the world rubbed their hands together.
Click to expand...
That’s strange… I seem to recall 30 straight years of US military activity in Iraq, Croatia, Somalia, and Afghanistan. I don’t think the John Lennon song had a big impact on foreign policy.
 
Chip Sylverne said:
That wasn't the context. The context was that the public figure said that Putin's plan for a false flag operation in the Eastern provinces that would provide cover for an invasion of Russian troops in order to counter the contrived threat to Russian speakers there was a "brilliant strategy". That was the object of the mockery. as it turns out, deservedly so.

I have never heard anyone deny Putin is smart.
Click to expand...
I won't deny that he's smart, in general ... but lately he's made some really stupid decisions. Like, world-class stupid. He has single-handedly set his country back years, if not decades, economically and politically.
 
Mikey B said:
I won't deny that he's smart, in general ... but lately he's made some really stupid decisions. Like, world-class stupid. He has single-handedly set his country back years, if not decades, economically and politically.
Click to expand...


More than that - he’s shown us just how poorly prepared his military is to withstand an engagement with a NATO force.
 
Mikey B said:
I won't deny that he's smart, in general ... but lately he's made some really stupid decisions. Like, world-class stupid. He has single-handedly set his country back years, if not decades, economically and politically.
Click to expand...

By smart I mean intellectually capable. Lots of smart people do dumb things, though this blunder is beyond world-class in that department.

It's been reported that Putin said God told him to take Ukraine. One of my favorite quotes is from Mother Theresa: "When you talk to God, it's called praying. When God talks to you, it's called schizophrenia."
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top