But by that logic you can't say just how bad of an idea it was until after we find out how it turns out. By my way of thinking, we can judge the action based on the decision to take the risk, without needing to know what the dice showed at the end.
We apply sanctions for two reasons. One is to provide a disincentive for undesirable behavior, in the hopes of reducing its occurrence, and the other is to weed out those who demonstrate that they are too great a risk to allow to continue to serve.
In neither of these cases is there any relevance to how that roll of the dice turns out. If somebody is doing something they shouldn't be doing, then we apply a sanction to discourage a re-occurrence of such behavior, and that goal is the same regardless of how it turned out, because whether an undesirable action had an undesirable result or not is simply a matter of luck.
If a pair of drunk drivers lose control of their respective cars and crash in separate incidents, but only one of them was unlucky enough to encounter an oncoming car, killing its occupant, then that drunk driver will be penalized more harshly, though both were guilty of the same transgression and in the same measure. I understand that people "this this way", that the drunk driver who killed somebody did something worse than the guy who lucked out, but it's illogical.
-harry