COVID-19: The silver lining

bobmrg said:
Manufacturing will move from China to the US when workers in the US agree to getting ten cents an hour.
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Well Maybe, If the raw materials are considered hazmat.
 
Tantalum said:
I don't totally disagree, however the media has a responsibility to report accurate, factual, and sound advice. McDonald's has no real responsibility to its audience, the media does. If I hired a trainer and joined the gym and he gave me all sorts of fake advice based on what I wanted to hear and I ended up fat I'd be blaming the trainer for that also

Most people are not health experts, and are generally, I'm sorry, but "not that smart" - they turn to the news to get world news. When things go south there's a responsibility to not misinform people and cause mass hysterics
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Lmao; very little of the social media; and even less of opinion shows which are technically entertainment have ever encountered a fact.

Tim
 
Well, there is now a joke meme going around according to my stepson which has my mom and others up in arms.
COVID-19 is the new Boomer Remover....

Many of the memes deal with Fox News; and related shows that have a predominate older audience.

Tim
 
Juliet Hotel said:
Short term, maybe. Long term, I'd bet against it.

Telecommuting doesn't work for factory workers nor lots of other jobs. If those folks can't work, the economy hits the toilet fast. Productivity goes down for all other industries at that point.

If you say so but I wouldn't hold my breath.
Costs (to the student) will not drop at all. Profit may increase though.
Aren't widows entitled their spouses SSI benefits?
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Widows and widowers are entitled to whichever benefit is greater, but not to both. My widowed MIL found that out the hard way.
 
That's the rub, most people cannot actually work from home..

and the people who have the smallest safety-net and rely paycheck to paycheck are the ones who typically cannot work from home, and will be most impacted by missing a few weeks of pay or potentially losing their job
 
Southpaw said:
Kids that play "King of the hill" on the manure pile in back corral have better immune systems then their urban cousins. ;)
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I agree. We didn't have a manure pile to play in, but spent at least one Saturday a month most of the year, messing with our cattle in the corrals. I don't seem to have the allergies my wife does. I tease her by saying that all my siblings with allergies died really young, as did the short armed ones.
 
steingar said:
None of what's going on is going matter. Were we the Chinese and could force everyone to stay home, we could probably beat this. But folks are going to go out. They're going to interact with other folks. This is going spread. Maybe we'll slow it down a touch...
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Sure it matters.

AlleyCat67 said:
I had a similar view until I read an interesting post online. It pointed out that social distancing isn't about preventing mass spread of COVID, but simply slowing the spread enough so that the health care system isn't overwhelmed all at once. A conservative estimate is that perhaps 30% of Americans will be infected, and perhaps 5-10% of those will need hospitalization. That's still several million more people than we have room for in hospitals if all those cases were to appear at once. On the other hand, if you can spread that spike out across several months then you have a fighting chance of keeping up with patient loads. So I'm willing to give social distancing the benefit of the doubt at this point.
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This is what a Yale graduate physician friend of mine is telling me. It's an attempt to "level load" the treatment capacity. Among other things the most acute cases require 2 to 3 weeks in an ICU on a respirator. There's only so many of those available. If the peak of infections can be knocked down and stretched out more people can be treated.
 
steingar said:
...Maybe we'll slow it down a touch so that the warm weather can do it's thing, if warm sunny weather kills this thing. Nothing to say it does, though heat and sunshine tend to do a number on other Coronaviruses.
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People have been getting it in Australia, where it's summer (although that doesn't rule out the possibility that the summer weather could be slowing it down).
 
Tantalum said:
I don't totally disagree, however the media has a responsibility to report accurate, factual, and sound advice. McDonald's has no real responsibility to its audience, the media does. If I hired a trainer and joined the gym and he gave me all sorts of fake advice based on what I wanted to hear and I ended up fat I'd be blaming the trainer for that also

Most people are not health experts, and are generally, I'm sorry, but "not that smart" - they turn to the news to get world news. When things go south there's a responsibility to not misinform people and cause mass hysterics
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You make it sound like the media are spreading misinformation on purpose. For most news sources, I think it's just a byproduct of the difficulty of finding out the facts, combined with competitive pressure to be the first to break the story.
 
Half Fast said:
Local grocery shelves are nearly empty.

Chill, people.
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It makes me wonder if people think that trucks are going to stop delivering food to the stores.
 
Everskyward said:
City people must be less worried. Safeway shelves about 2/3 stocked as of an hour ago. Plenty of food if you are not fussy about the brand. I didn't bother to look for either TP or hand sanitizer.
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I went to a couple of stores today. The Nob Hill wasn't very busy. They had finally run out of TP, and the liquid soap was cleaned out, but there seemed to be an adequate stock of bar soap. The Safeway had HUGE checkout lines, and at that point, all I wanted was some ice cream, so I turned around and left. I ended up getting ice cream at the drug store!
 
Palmpilot said:
What evidence is that?
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https://www.latimes.com/world-natio...n-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive

Its not clear yet whether these are real 're-infections' or artifacts of a less than perfect testing regime. If your test prior to discharge of a person is false negative, it would falsely create a case of re-infection when it is actually persistence of a the virus. To find out whether it is one or the other, one could sequence the genome from both infections and compare it with the virus circulating in the community at the different time points.
 
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Palmpilot said:
It makes me wonder if people think that trucks are going to stop delivering food to the stores.
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I'm a manager at a trucking company. We have about 40 drivers. Most of our conversations this week have involved trying to plan for how we will cover our customer commitments if/when 10 or more of our drivers all call out sick at the same time. If our partner carriers have capacity we might be able to work it out. If our partner carriers also end up with significant portion of their driver pool out sick, our customer's freight ain't gonna move. Simple as that.
 
Juliet Hotel said:
I'm a manager at a trucking company. We have about 40 drivers. Most of our conversations this week have involved trying to plan for how we will cover our customer commitments if/when 10 or more of our drivers all call out sick at the same time. If our partner carriers have capacity we might be able to work it out. If our partner carriers also end up with significant portion of their driver pool out sick, our customer's freight ain't gonna move. Simple as that.
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If the available trained manpower gets reduced to that degree, it sounds like a need may develop for emergency rule-making to prioritize shipments of food and other essentials.
 
I just got home after spending two nights in Springfield at my girlfriend's. My two cats just love destroying things when I'm gone just to let me know that they don't appreciate it. I guess the little bastages don't understand that there's a toilet paper shortage!!!

IMG_20200215_140048075~2.jpg
 
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Juliet Hotel said:
I'm a manager at a trucking company. We have about 40 drivers. Most of our conversations this week have involved trying to plan for how we will cover our customer commitments if/when 10 or more of our drivers all call out sick at the same time. If our partner carriers have capacity we might be able to work it out. If our partner carriers also end up with significant portion of their driver pool out sick, our customer's freight ain't gonna move. Simple as that.
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Why couldn’t that scenario be solved with an average of 13 hrs OT for each of the remaining 30?
 
Half Fast said:
Why couldn’t that scenario be solved with an average of 13 hrs OT for each of the remaining 30?
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Likely require DOT to waive many regulations. There are hour limits and other safety requirements.
The more likely response I believe would be for DOT to state, prioritize required items, leave the perfume and other "luxury" items behind.

Tim
 
I would think this could be a boon for general aviation, as airline travel has just become even worse.
Jon
 
tspear said:
Likely require DOT to waive many regulations. There are hour limits and other safety requirements.
The more likely response I believe would be for DOT to state, prioritize required items, leave the perfume and other "luxury" items behind.

Tim
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Good point, but DOT rules are often waived in emergencies. They have been waived here in Florida during hurricanes and the aftermath, for example.
 
Half Fast said:
Good point, but DOT rules are often waived in emergencies. They have been waived here in Florida during hurricanes and the aftermath, for example.
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Hurricanes and other waivers were all short lived. This may have to run for a couple months. That has never been contemplated.

Tim

Sent from my HD1907 using Tapatalk
 
cgrab said:
Education costs will drop significantly without having to "attend" a brick and mortar campus and students can "go to school" on line
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Unfornantly, not, and if you have done on-line/distance classes they are just as much if not more. They realize this and try to make it up in other ways.
 
timwinters said:
I just got home after spending two nights in Springfield at my girlfriend's. My two cats just love destroying things when I'm gone just to let me know that they don't appreciate it. I guess the little bastages don't understand that there's a toilet paper shortage!!!

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Better tape that back together!

tspear said:
Likely require DOT to waive many regulations. There are hour limits and other safety requirements.
The more likely response I believe would be for DOT to state, prioritize required items, leave the perfume and other "luxury" items behind.

Tim
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From what I'm reading, the DOT either has or will be waiving duty hours for truckers.
 
Half Fast said:
Why couldn’t that scenario be solved with an average of 13 hrs OT for each of the remaining 30?
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Most truck drivers (including most of mine) already drive the max hours allowed by the DOT or close to it. The DOT has already waived the hours of service restrictions for any drivers moving loads related to dealing with Covid-19. I'm not sure food counts but it might.

But its not as simple as just make fewer drivers drive more. Even driving 24 hours straight, one driver can only move so much freight.

Also making drivers drive more isn't always the best idea from a liability standpoint. Fall asleep and blast into a stopped SUV and kill a family, the lawyers of the estate are not going to care that the DOT said it was ok for your driver to drive 18 hours straight before the accident. Trucking companies are folding left and right because of nuclear verdicts after fatal accidents.
 
Tantalum said:
The media has led people to believe this is some zombie movie stuff. The UK is largely going about life as usual
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The UK is purposely trying "Nudge theory" as their approach: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/...s-nudge-theory-the-right-approach-coronavirus

Tantalum said:
I don't totally disagree, however the media has a responsibility to report accurate, factual, and sound advice.
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If only this were true... :(

What regulation there was of the media is mostly gone, and so they've gone to the 24-hour cycle, which results in a LOT of empty time to fill waiting for something to happen, so they've got an awful lot of talk/opinion shows mixed in with the news.

Tantalum said:
Extending this out over months and continuing the economic damage is horrible. Without any real cure, outside of people with complications, I'd be inclined to think that most people who get it will be just riding it out at home? No?
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Most people, yes... But those who don't are going to be in the hospital, and we have fewer hospital beds per capita than even nations like Italy that are struggling to keep up.

Here's some really interesting simulations that show why social distancing is effective:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...ZXBOR40Fr2nJoUJ1jVazjg0v533-BJxY3rnYSsk4XGNH0

timwinters said:
Man, that's a blast from the past. I loved Meijer when I was working up north. Almost as much as I loved Fleet Farm. Miss them both.
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We just got Meijer here in southeastern Wisconsin a few years ago. I used to go to Meijer in Michigan occasionally, and I'm really glad they're here - We shop there frequently now. It's a nice, clean big box store, kinda like Target without the pretentiousness.

Juliet Hotel said:
I'm a manager at a trucking company. We have about 40 drivers. Most of our conversations this week have involved trying to plan for how we will cover our customer commitments if/when 10 or more of our drivers all call out sick at the same time. If our partner carriers have capacity we might be able to work it out. If our partner carriers also end up with significant portion of their driver pool out sick, our customer's freight ain't gonna move. Simple as that.
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midwestpa24 said:
From what I'm reading, the DOT either has or will be waiving duty hours for truckers.
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The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), that portion of the DOT that deals with trucking safety, has already waived hours of service limits for those who are carrying medical supplies, cleaning supplies, food, or building supplies related to the COVID-19 outbreak:

Article: https://cdllife.com/2020/fmcsa-suspends-hos-in-all-50-states-for-coronavirus-outbreak/
Waiver: https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/emergency/emergency-declaration-under-49-cfr-ss-39023-no-2020-002
 
flyingcheesehead said:
The UK is purposely trying "Nudge theory" as their approach: https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/...s-nudge-theory-the-right-approach-coronavirus
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Honestly the UK is the only one doing it right, this statement below, makes wayy too much sense. 6K deaths and 124K infected out of 7.7B people is not worth what's happening

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YES YES YES, a million times YES

It's in the community, locking people at home and destroying the economy won't stop it. Just go about your life and move on.
 
@Tantalum

The result will be interesting to see in the coming months.
The UK is going a radically different direction than anyone else. The problem is there is no data to support for/against the nudge theory.

Tim
 
Much better to have the media over-react than under-react...spurs people to alter their social behavior. And that's the only real way to stop this thing and hopefully not overwhelm our ICUs, etc. A bad and scary time indeed to be a nursing home patient.

Our current administration didn't take the threat seriously at first, and valuable time was lost in the fight.

24-hour news does have a lot of time to fill, by definition, but I'm glad to have more info and not less.
 
GRG55 said:
Sure it matters.



This is what a Yale graduate physician friend of mine is telling me. It's an attempt to "level load" the treatment capacity. Among other things the most acute cases require 2 to 3 weeks in an ICU on a respirator. There's only so many of those available. If the peak of infections can be knocked down and stretched out more people can be treated.
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Area under the curve stays the same. Same number of total cases, just spread out longer to allow health system to handle.
 
Tantalum said:
Honestly the UK is the only one doing it right, this statement below, makes wayy too much sense. 6K deaths and 124K infected out of 7.7B people is not worth what's happening

YES YES YES, a million times YES

It's in the community, locking people at home and destroying the economy won't stop it. Just go about your life and move on.
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The problem with the nudge theory is that the death toll will likely be much higher. Medical resources are finite, and if allowed to spread unchecked will quickly be overwhelmed. That is what is happening in Italy. Doctors there are having to apply mass casualty triage procedures to select which people will be given those resources, and which ones will be left to die. They don't have enough ICU beds to treat everyone at the same time.
 
timwinters said:
I just got home after spending two nights in Springfield at my girlfriend's. My two cats just love destroying things when I'm gone just to let me know that they don't appreciate it. I guess the little bastages don't understand that there's a toilet paper shortage!!!

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You gonna have to eat the cat eventually. Sooo...
 
midwestpa24 said:
The problem with the nudge theory is that the death toll will likely be much higher. Medical resources are finite, and if allowed to spread unchecked will quickly be overwhelmed. That is what is happening in Italy. Doctors there are having to apply mass casualty triage procedures to select which people will be given those resources, and which ones will be left to die. They don't have enough ICU beds to treat everyone at the same time.
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Maybe, maybe not. No data showing one way or the other. Just a belief, or a gamble depending on point of view.

Note: This following info is from a poster in Switzerland. So cannot verify the veracity, but does match the little press I have seen.
Switzerland is also taking a different approach. They are not shutting down, but isolating the vulnerable population (over 60, health concerns...). Schools stayed open, when closing, they are offering child care so grandparents do not watch the kids, restaurants, gatherings all continuing. Elderly expected to stay away, join family virtually... The idea is the health system has the capacity to handle the cases based on the lower rate you get with the younger population. This will then basically generate herd based immunity, and make it more manageable when it eventually gets to the vulnerable.

Tim
 
midwestpa24 said:
The problem with the nudge theory is that the death toll will likely be much higher. Medical resources are finite, and if allowed to spread unchecked will quickly be overwhelmed. That is what is happening in Italy. Doctors there are having to apply mass casualty triage procedures to select which people will be given those resources, and which ones will be left to die. They don't have enough ICU beds to treat everyone at the same time.
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Second problem is that herd immunity has never been achieved before without a vaccine - even for non-mutating diseases that we’ve had for thousands of years - like measles and polio.
 
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